Despite spending hours on the net every week I find I haven't really changed my mind ..still an 8-10.

What would you identify as the first domino to fall?

I would nominate the oil industry.Without fuel,no power.......

(Strange how all that reading boils down to a couple of conclusions)

-- billy (goats@upinthe air.com), November 17, 1999

Answers

hmmm, I'm a 7 leaning towards an 8.
the trigger - either market/banking or oil, coin toss.

-- Dan G (earth_changes@hotmailc.com), November 17, 1999.

Rather than describing it as the "first domino",maybe I should have said the "most vulnerable domino"

-- Billy (goats@upinthe air.com), November 17, 1999.

I'm wondering, what will be THE posting here that will indicate the dominoes are falling down. What do you think it will say, or how will it read?

-- he (cant@say.now), November 17, 1999.

I dunno, but I found this bit interesting enough to post it... And it got absolutely NO response. Sooooo..... Who knows?

CLICK HERE

-- Dennis (djolson@cherco.net), November 17, 1999.

Several 'local' disaters could occur with little or no global impact.

However, if confidence is lost in any key social institution by large numbers of people, that could mean real trouble.

FWIW, I believe our financial systems are most at risk since they are, to a very large degree, dependent upon the confidence of the participants.

-- Arnie Rimmer (Arnie_Rimmer@usa.net), November 17, 1999.

It's all the fault of that darn movie!

-- No Polly (nopolly@hotmail.com), November 17, 1999.

That is hard to say because of the news media blackout on pertinant Y2K events.

Ah freedom, once as an American, years back, I knew it.

-- Paula (chowbabe@pacbell.net), November 17, 1999.

Water

-- River Soma (riversoma@aol.com), November 17, 1999.

I'd go for a large Northern city that goes 24-48 hours without power, or whatever period it takes for buildings to cool down, pipes to freeze and burst. Martial law, and then, as they'll say in the finger-pointing afterward, "mistakes were made."

But you know, we lost power for 4 days from Floyd, even though we were hundreds of miles away. And the thing that got me wound up really tight right from the start was having to holler incessantly at my little girls about making sure they chucked the wee-soaked toilet paper into the garbage rather than putting it in the bowl, since we wanted to cut our flushing water use to a minimum. It'll be dopey little things like this that cause people to crack and do stupid stuff, not just throttling of our oil pipelines.

-- Firemouse (firemouse@fcmail.com), November 17, 1999.

Loss of law and order.

Public loss of faith in the systems which support them, will be the first discernable problem. The public, through their actions, will reflect in some way the numerous faults that they have experienced.

Failures, in such areas as: oil, water, electricity, telecommunications, layoffs, business closures, stock markets, banking, transportation, government and many others might occur randomly and within a short period of time. I expect delivery of goods would be the first fault widely experienced, if electrical power isn't the first to fail.

The rule of law is what supports the continuance of our society.

-- snooze button (alarmclock_2000@yahoo.com), November 17, 1999.

Billy,

When the men in white coats throw a butterfly net over your head and pump you up with your first dose of Thorazine, you'll know the jig is up.

Okey-dokey?

-- Bilbo (you@raving.lunatic), November 17, 1999.

Absolutely ANYTHING to do with money! Whether collapse, loss of confidence or limiting amounts of withdrawls or loans, anything at all to do with money. DGI & DWGI alike are VERY interested in their MONEY, I get so sick of it, nothing else seems to matter to them. So my vote is for that, people don't care about food, power, oil etc if there is money to worry about!!!! They equate that with life I guess???

-- Sammie (sammiex0@hotmail.com), November 17, 1999.

Unfortunately, people as a whole don't react these days unless it is in there back yard. Global warming, depletion of our oceans, melting of the ice caps, deforestation, contaminated and dwindling aquifers, disappearing animals and plants (extinctions, 1 to 3 a day), pollution, etc. No, people won't react until it is in their face. Oil should probably do it. It would be across the board and it would affect most people's favorite possession - their automobile.

-- Damon Devine (ddevine@impulse.net), November 17, 1999.

The market will be first or second. It will react to whatever is first. Once the exit begins, it will be difficult to stop. I think that oil will be the first to show large, structural problems that will cascade throughout several market areas.

-- enough is (enough@enough.com), November 17, 1999.

...probably some intitially assumed-to-be obscure, serendipitous event of presumed little or no consequence, the real effect of which, after it has set in motion the chain of events necessary to topple the dominoes it must as it ripples through the world, will bring about all the other stuff we've been talking about here for all these months.

[see the beginning of WWI for precedent]

-- Perry Arnett (pjarnett@pdqnet.net), November 17, 1999.

I think the first domino has fallen: Where is Cory? Where is Weather Report #132????

I'll bet he's already split for the hills and has left his site hanging there to haunt us. Not a good sign.

Is he still in town? Help!??

--bob

-- Bob (thebobster@delphi.com), November 17, 1999.

panic...

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), November 17, 1999.

The trigger I see is people attempting to withdraw their bank deposits and being "counselled" by bank tellers and managers. If the physical cash is unavailable, they will insist on wihdrawing it in the form of money orders, cashier's checks, and traveller's checks. One way or another, banks will be in serious jeopardy.

Perhaps the only viable solution will be to declare a bank holiday. Such a declared holiday may be the trigger which leads to cashflow problems in commerce and industry.

I'm tempted to say something along the lines of plants closing down in December as a precaution. But, realistically, "Hey, they've shut plants down before - so what?"

I don't use the term "public panic" because I see panic as an individual thing. People don't generally panic just because other people are panicking. A person will panic when he/she personally is aware of a life-threatening situation (e.g. hypothermia, dehydration) to self or a loved one.

Of course, when enough people are panicking, then we see the actual "collapse".

I know this is not a religious forum, but I think it's about time we all start practicing the option (necessity) of prayer ... myself included.

-- Zach Anderson (z@figure.8m.com), November 17, 1999.

The first triggers?
1. The collapse of the oil industry in Saudi, week 2, Jan. 2000.
2. China closes again. Massive failures result in a 2nd "Cultural Revolution" creating financial panic in Asian markets.
3. Week 3-U.S. Automakers declare an extended holiday (for 1 month initially) due to supply problems from unprepared suppliers (i.e. Mexico and overseas).
4. Week 3-Bonus-.gov late on payments, minor riots (oxymoron but you'll hear that term often) occur in 4-5 major U.S. cities. Pictures of the elderly and poor in lines for their money overwhelm the media.
5. Week 4 - Border with Mexico sealed due to increased violence from the civil war. Blamed on "right wing" extremists, the UN and US promise aid.
6. Feb 28 - Bank Holiday on Feb 29. President Klintoon does this as a precaution. Markets finally tank in fear that the banks will not re-open Mar. 1.
7. Mar 1 - Banks do not re-open. Chaos in the financial markets. Japan dumps U.S. bonds on the European market. Europeans close markets early to stem losses. NYSE does not open.
8. Mar 2 - ATMs and banks in U.S. limited to $20 withdrawls per account per week. NYSE closed by Feds til following Monday. Layoffs begin as paychecks bounce nationwide. Riots ensue in other larger cities.
9. Mar 3 - Martial law declared in 20 U.S. cities. Primaries for 2000 election suspended in the "national" interest.
10. March, 2000, date unknown - Violence from Mexican, Honduran, and Guatemalan civil wars spreads refugees over the border. Texas, Arizona, and California have Federal troops depoloyed along the border. UN votes to assist US to help Mexican refugees in a purely symbolic move. Chase Manhatten defaults on all loans. Ecuador, Uruaguay, and Argentina cited as primary reasons. US postpones first installments on 10 year and 5 year bond repayments due to Y2K. Gold tops $450/oz.
There you wanted my worst case scenario people. You have it. Is it possible? Yes. Is it probable? Hell, I hope not, I just started two new businesses, but if it happens, I do intend to follow my creed and profit the hell out of those that DGI. Sorry if you don't like that (not).

Got gold?
John 9.5

-- John 9.5 Galt (jgaltfla@hotmail.com), November 17, 1999.

The trigger to the collapse... that's a tough one. I know I'm going to go out on a limb here, but I'll go with Y2K.

-- Patrick (pmchenry@gradall.com), November 17, 1999.

Oh, I don't know. I'd guess that not having phones, electricity, water, and the sewer backing up on Jan. 1 ought to be a good indicator that the first domino has fallen.

-- just another (another@engineer.com), November 17, 1999.

John Galt-

You're scaring the hell out of me. Why? Because I know it's all possible. How probable is anyone's guess. I'm gonna print it out just for kicks, throw another log on the fire, and make myself a stiff drink. Later.

-- (cavscout@fix.net), November 17, 1999.

someone will cancel their order for the new refrigerator

-- charles hatcher (chatcher@hcnews.com), November 17, 1999.

Sorry, I don't mean to scare anyone. But my majors were in Computer Sciences and Middle Eastern History. God forbid, those a-hole professors actually taught me something.

Got gas?
John 9.5

-- John 9.5 Galt (jgaltfla@hotmail.com), November 17, 1999.

Brillant answer Patrick! So you think y2k will be the trigger?! Duh! What do you think we are talking about Einstien?

-- Iam (sickof@pompous.fools), November 17, 1999.

When will I know the collapse has begun?

When my wife apologizes, admits I was right, and tearfully says she is sorry for having stopped my preperations. We are currently seperated right now over my decision to prepare for the worst. I have two young children. I sold all my preps to my father in an attempt to save the marriage. Didn't work. We are shit out of luck if things go beyond a 7-8. My contingency plan was brilliant. But now, we might as well be DGI's.

Anyone need a home solar system. I have a Trace 4048 Inverter, Trace Charge Controller, disconnect, (6) ea. Solarex MX-120 panels, (16)wet L16 Deka batteries and (8) dry L16 Deka batteries? Its a turn key system from Atlantic Solar, ready for install. Call me 410-832-5920 Best Offer

-- MarktheFart (happy@risperdane.com), November 17, 1999.

Try this scenario... Christmas Eve or thereabouts Clinton addresses the nation on the imminent danger to national security from y2k cyberterrorists. 200,000 viruses, etc. Invokes directives restricting travel, banking, markets, and possibly gun/ammo sales. "Everything is okay now but we must exercise all precautions." Probably will cite confirmed evidence of some plot(s) against the USA, kind of like how he had hard evidence that the pharmaceutical factory was making bio weapons. This will wake people up (Martha, what'd he just say???) but alarm will be subdued by reassuring words from the talking heads. (Well, Bob, again, we have to assume for now that the evidence is strong, and if it is the President is likely pursuing the wisest course. This reminds me a little of the Cuban Missile Crisis, in some ways...) Then the first y2k events (or even a MANUFACTURED event) will provide proof the Prez was right and the next address will merely explain why overnight martial law and suspension of the Constitution have occurred. The whole sequence will be carefully orchestrated and as the country descends into economic, financial, and infrastructural hell only readers of this forum will know how completely we've been suckered, again. Don't kid yourself--the government, from federal down to village, has no intention of relinquishing power no matter HOW bad it gets. So in answer, I'd have to say the most vulnerable domino, and the first to fall, will be our beloved Bill of Rights.

-- StanTheMan (heidrich@presys.com), November 17, 1999.

Brillant answer Patrick! So you think y2k will be the trigger?! Duh! What do you think we are talking about Einstien?

-- Iam (sickof@pompous.fools), November 17, 1999.

.....Lighten up Francis... there just seems to be so many6 of these "scenario" threads lately. It wasn't meant to be pompous as you say, but if you're already losing your sense of humor, maybe you need to get off the board for a while. Shidood...

-- Patrick (pmchenry@gradall.com), November 17, 1999.

Galt-

Not really "scared", since I am very GI and well prepared. Just my way of saying that I thought your scenario is very plausible. I don't see any reason all those events or very similar ones couldn't unfold. There are just too many loose ends for the pollies to say it CAN'T happen in a similar fashion. And yes, I have gas; gasoline, diesel, propane. And occasionally the other kind *grin*. Mmm, this drink is good, think I'll make another......

-- (cavscout@all.fueledup), November 17, 1999.

Don't think it will "collapse" per se. Just "get messy."

Trigger? A terrorist attack on U.S. soil... before, during or after the rollover.

*Big Sigh*

Diane

See...

Two important releases from Clark Staten of ERRI. A new warning against anti-US/UN terrorism. (stay alert in Seattle.), interview w/ ex sov biowar scientist.

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id= 001mBe

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), November 17, 1999.

Billy, yes, I read and read and don't really know any more than when I started except I might be able to explain what I know better. I think that oil is the key here. No oil, no nothing.

-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), November 17, 1999.

Key personnel and CEO's retiring or leaving their companies, silence and lying about the status of Y2K remediation, the government giving the public a false sense of security, manipulation of the stock market, and the active movement and training of military troops within key cities. "Strange how all that reading boils down to a couple (several) conclusions."

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), November 18, 1999.

Bardou-
It's gooooood to see you again. But then again,due to my travels, hell I've not been a reg. GOOD LUCK and more,

John 9.5

-- John 9.5 Galt (jgaltfla@hotmail.com), November 18, 1999.

A RUN ON THE SUPERMARKETS. When people walk through our Superstores and Mega Grocery outlets they find it hard to believe we could drain these huge suckers even if we all had $1000 time sensitive free shopping sprees. All it takes is the talk of an ice storm or a Huricane and whamo, the shelves are bare.... Wait until we have a Y2K ice storm in every major city in the world. I am sure it will be hunger that hits us first and then we will CALL OUR BROKER and its down hill from here on.

-- Ron Wiebe (ron_wiebe@bc.sympatico.ca), November 18, 1999.

I have two answers:

1) It's all a dream. You'll wake up and shudder. You'll feel uneasy until you tell someone your dream. It seemed "all too real". You'll then go on with life as usual.

2) It's physical reality. The code and embedded systems that won't work, won't. We already have a (2). It's here now. We're staying ahead of the glitches, so it appears. Yet, should these glitches start to pile-up then it all comes crashing down, quite suddenly.

Either it will continue to be a BITR or it will quickly escalate into TEOTWAWKI. No in-between. A (2) or a (10). Anything more than a (2) and the herd gets spooked, then it's all over.

Personally, I hope it stays a (2). I do not relish the idea of living in the "dark ages". I like hot showers, central a/c and heat, ice, lights and hot coffee on demand. I really wouldn't care to "skin-a- buck" or "run-a-trot-line" again (yeah, I was raised a country boy) or wonder if a late summer storm is really a catagory 4 hurricane approaching. I enjoy interacting with others on the net. I look forward to exciting new advances in science and medicine.

All in all, from the research I've done, from the reports I've read, from the statements I've heard, from the numbers I've crunched, from reading about human history and the sudden fall of "advanced" civilizations, from my life experiences dealing with the general public as well as our elected government leaders and employeed civil servants, from the utter lack of wisdom from most leaders of the corporate world...sadely, I remain pessimistic.

-- GoldReal (GoldReal@aol.com), November 18, 1999.

Mark,...I'm so sorry! Won't your father still help you? At least for his grandchildren? Saying a prayer for you....

-- Mumsie (shezdremn@aol.com), November 18, 1999.

John 9.5,

I couldn't have said it better...excellent thinking!

My own one word answer would be OIL, but I liked your scenario much better. Not to say that I LIKED the possibility of anything you had to say actually happening, but it was quite well done.

John Ludi

-- Ludi (ludi@rollin.com), November 18, 1999.

First dominoes have already fallen. The big enterprises which tried to replace their enterprise management systems with SAP. Hersheys, Whirlpool and Waste Management Inc. are poster children. Others are hidden out there. Oil and interest rates are going to hit like sledge hammers. Then countries fail...

Dominoes is not a good analogy. Seems to me that the first business failure I saw was a little grocery store whose checkout machine wouldn't accept credit cards with expirations after 99. Looks like the scale of failures gets bigger and bigger and bigger.

-- ng (cantprovideemail@none.com), November 18, 1999.

No, oil wont do it. Cant think of a single scenario in which oil could cause panic amongst ordinary people. Perhaps a few investors. Perhaps it could cause recession or even depression. But either of these scenarios would take time to unfold. Even if we didnt get a drop for three months and were dependent on reserves of whatever is in the pipeline, there are so many ways people would adapt (pay more, use less, sharing, increased use of public transportation, shorter working weeks, rationing and any number of more creative ways of reducing consumption and buying time). People know this. Theyll demand political action. Nobody wants a free-for-all.

Arnies is more right IMO. Confidence that will be the biggest factor. If the lights dont go out all at once everywhere, then the only place loss of confidence will play a role is in banking. But then again, Im not so sure. Even if several big banking concerns declared belly up and closed the doors, there are just so many measures that could be taken to restore a faltering confidence amongst ordinary consumers (restricting cash withdrawals, printing more notes, alternative voucher schemes). Whatever it takes to buy time. People know this. Theyll demand political action. Nobody wants a free-for-all.

The only thing I can think of that could trigger panic where I live (admittedly I dont live in the USA) would be an environmental catastrophe with no means of escape. I guess that is the point really. No escape. Cornered. Thatll bring out the animal in us. All the other factors take too much time to unfold and manifest themselves in daily life  time to work out the escape, the alternatives, the recovery route. Of course one could argue forever over what panic is. One mans panic is another mans prudence.

-- Resigned (resigned@t_home.com), November 18, 1999.

John Galt--I went over to Frugal Squirrel the other day and it's all changed--password, etc. But I saw your name there.......nice to hear from you too...

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), November 18, 1999.

The first domino to fall - WON'T ! That is , it is tipping as we speak (write) here. It is the reversal of what the bankers can do when you deposit say $1000 . They can now loan out $5000 ( approximately ) . So , as you and I steadly withdraw more money ( AND HOLD IT !!! ) they are forced into a reversal of their , until now , happy , ever larger expansion of the " assets " , which are of course mainly expressed as loans (accounts receivable - a streach ) . OH , YES ! They CAN borrow from the Fed , BUT , that requires collateral ... the Fed isn't stupid . At a five to one reversal of fourtunes, AND a limited amout of money they can borrow, they will be forced to curtail loans AND eventually the amount of YOUR money that they will ALLOW you to withdraw. As the information on the reduction of the amount of money you can withdraw per day/week will spread like wild fire ; THEN the lines appear outside the banks (IF they are STILL OPEN ). The rest you GIs will renumerate to to you grandchildren for years, as they ask those wide eyed questions of , " Tell us again , grandfather , what was it like to have all that food , toys , and clothes in the stores, that people could take home just for a peice of paper , with a presidents picture on it ". I am already preparing my grandson with little look aheads to the "real world to come" and practical gifts he'll NEED in the next ten years. Lived the depression ... know what will count . I can tell you one thing ; you didn't buy ammo ; you bought & planted seeds and tended garden . If you shot an animal , it was for food , NOT SPORT ! Eagle

-- Hal Walker (e999eagle@freewwweb.com), November 18, 1999.

Dennis,

I thought it was VERY important, but it happened at the end of the work day. Gone by the time I returned to work. Have they provided any updates that you know about?

-- nothere nothere (notherethere@hotmail.com), November 18, 1999.

What the devil is thorazine ?Can it help me with my goat problem ???

-- Billy (Goats@upinthe air.com), November 18, 1999.

The only reason I'm staying up all night (I'm going to try, anyway) on New Years is not because of Y2K but because of the unknown element of those that want to put there stamp on history on the turnover. If I was a religious zealot, virus disseminator, terrorist, arsonist or any other kind of disruptor I would want my chaos to add to the chaos of the party of the millenium. Nobody on this forum (or very few), understands the excitement of chaos - adrenalin is far more powerful than heroine. That is the biggest unknown factor for the turnover. The bug will take time to unravel. Another HUGE possibility is that one of the unscrupulous oil producing companies will fake Y2K problems to jack up the price of oil. They may shut it down for the hell of it. I know I would. We are so disgustingly gas dependent - I would teach those thirsty, stupid, greedy Americans a lesson once and forever because we damn sure didn't learn anything during the Arab embargo. We have more gas guzzling SUVs on the road than ever before. I think we receive 14% of our oil from Venezuela one of the least prepared countries. If I was in power there I would have been saving money just for the turnover, then turn off the spigots with all my money in oil company stocks and that type of investment and conveniently blame it on some embedded chips, they're on order, none in stock, back order, shortages, delays in shipping, sent the wrong chips - that could last for months. They could keep there oil IN THE GROUND and make just as much money or MORE. We'll have to break out those dusty two wheeled contraptions and grease the chains and put snow tires on them.

-- Guy Daley (guydaley@bwn.net), November 19, 1999.