Looks like we are about 12 weeks from peak.

From: http://www.dxlc.com/solar/ "Comment added at 10:01 UTC on November 17: A major flare was observed at 09:57, it reached the M7.4 level. Its source is not yet certain, could be either of regions 8759, 8765 and 8766.

Comment added at 18:38 UTC: The major flare from region 8766 earlier today was accompanied by a strong type II sweep and a moderately strong type II sweep. The associated coronal mass ejection will likely impact the earth sometime between late on November 19 and late on November 20.

Flares and CMEs 5 C flares and 7 M flares (the highest number of M flares in a single day during solar cycle 23) were recorded on November 16. Region 8759 produced a long duration M2.3 event peaking at 07:10 UTC (NOAA/SEC attributed this flare to region 8765. While that region did produce a flare at 06:22 UTC, that flare was much smaller than the event in region 8759). Region 8760 generated an impulsive M3.0/SN flare at 04:10 UTC. A coronal mass ejection was observed off the west limb. Region 8765 was the source of a long duration M1.4/1N event peaking at 14:11 UTC and an M2.0/1N event at 21:24 UTC. Region 8766 produced an M3.8/1B flare at 02:46 UTC. It was accompanied by a strong type II sweep and a moderately strong type IV sweep. The associated coronal mass ejection was a partial halo one covering most of the east limb and the north pole. There is a chance this CME could impact the earth on November 19. Region 8766 was the source of an M1.8 flare at 05:12 UTC. It was accompanied by a moderately strong type II sweep. Region 8768 generated an M1.0/SN flare at 09:22 UTC. Apart from the two CMEs mentioned above, several other CMEs are likely to have been generated in association with the other M class events. There is a fairly high probability that at least one of the CMEs will impact the earth on November 19.

The background x-ray flux is at the class C1-C2 level.

Coronal holes A small coronal hole in the southern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on November 14-15.

Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to aqctive on November 17, possibly with isolated minor storm intervals. A coronal stream could influence the field on November 17-18. A coronal mass ejection observed on November 14 could reach earth on November 17. If there is an impact, active to major storm would be likely. Low frequency (below 2 MHz) radio wave propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is generally poor."

-- ng (cantprovideemail@none.com), November 17, 1999

Answers

There is little practical difference between listening to astronomers and listening to astrologers - at best it is entertaining, while usually it's a pure waste of time. Neither profession has anything relevant to say as far as our daily lives our concerned.

"impact the earth" - bah humbug - it'll impact the earth like a butterfly's fart impacts the earth

-- Gus (y2kk@usa.net), November 17, 1999.

YOU GO, GUS!

Squirrl Huntr >"<

-- SH (squirrl@huntr.com), November 17, 1999.

These warnings are put out for the benefit of all air traffic which relies heavily on the ability to send and receive radio and radar transmissions. Your lack of understanding, Gus, does not constitute anything remotely resembling reality.

-- Shelia (Shelia@active-stream.com), November 17, 1999.

but i do like the "butterfly's fart". LOL

-- tt (cuddluppy@yahoo.com), November 18, 1999.

-- n (q@q.l), December 12, 1999.

-- m (h@k.m), December 12, 1999.