Apparently, there could be problems....

-- sky (sky@watch.look), November 17, 1999

Answers

I was killed in last year's Leonid meteor shower when my neighbor's ran out of food after the communication satellites were destroyed starting the domino effect predicted by GIs...the doomers were right! the doomers were right!

Amused Regards,
Andy Ray

-- Andy Ray (andyman633@hotmail.com), November 17, 1999.

Gee Andy, I always thought you were brain-dead..:0)

-- sky (sky@sky.watch), November 17, 1999.

I for one expect a great show. I am packing up the family and going camping (to get away from the city lights) to watch the show to night. A great way to test some of the bug out prep!!!

I will post what we see!! (if it is good).

-- Helium (Heliumavid@yahoo.com), November 17, 1999.

Not worried, no. Fascinated yes. I saw the big meteor streak through the atmosphere last night. It was incredible. If you didn't see it, it (seemed to be) right over northern Ohio, and crossed from horizon to horizon west to east.

-- Powder (powder@keg.com), November 17, 1999.

http://science.nasa.gov/newhome/headlines/ast10nov99_1.htm

Link

Heads up!

NASA to help satellite operators watch ups and downs of Leonids

Nov. 12, 1999: Meteorites have become popular enough in recent years that they have worked their ways into disaster films and finally into commercials that parody the films. In the ads, what appears to be a massive rock aimed at the planet turns out to be a small cinder by the time it hits.

That's surprisingly close to the truth. Most of what we see blazing through the upper atmosphere - including the Nov. 17-18 Leonids meteor shower - poses no hazard to us.

"Leonids never make it to the ground," said Bill Cooke, an engineer for CSC Corp. working in the Space Environments Team at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center. "They vaporize at heights of 100 to 160 km," or 62 to 100 miles.

"If they never hit the ground, then what's the big deal?" he continued.

The answer is that satellites in Earth orbit are at a slightly greater risk of damage since they are above Earth's protective atmosphere. The chances of getting pulverized by "the big one," or even a small one, are minimal. What poses a far greater hazard is the potential for electrical short circuits when the impact from a dust grain forms a plasma cloud around a satellite.

So to help satellite operators keep an eye on what's going on during this year's Leonids, a special Leonids Environment Operations Center will operate at NASA/Marshall for 90 hours centered on the expected peak influx of Leonid meteors. Cooke will be part of the team that also includes members of the U.S. Air Force 50th Space Wing and Canadian meteor scientists. NASA, the Department of Defense, the European Space Agency, and commercial satellite companies like Iridium all support the project.

It won't be a meteor storm equivalent of the weather bureau, Cooke cautioned, but an effort to provide "situational awareness" to satellite operators.

The Leonids are the remains of comet Tempel-Tuttle which orbits the sun every 33 years in a direction opposite that of the planets and most other objects in the solar system. That means that objects shed by the comet run into the Earth at a relative speed of 72 km/s (150,000 mph). That means that even small grains from the Leonids can form large, energetic plasma clouds when they strike a satellite. The risk is greater than from most meteor showers, because most comets and asteroids (and their debris streams) orbit the sun in the same direction as the Earth and so have lower impact velocities.

The Leonids happen every year, but peak every 33 years after the comet has shed a fresh load of litter for Earth to sail through. Older material is moved sunward by tidal effects of Jupiter and Uranus.

Records of the Leonids go back as far as 1799, and possibly 1100. The meteor storm of 1833, with more than 100,000 per hour, "marked the birth of meteor science as we know it," Cooke said. The 1866 storm inspired the song, "Stars Fell on Alabama." Storms skipped 1899 and 1932, then roared back in 1966 with an incredible storm that peaked at 150,000 meteors an hour.

"These things can surprise you," Cooke said.

Partly because of the 1966 showing, a few experts in 1998 issued dire warnings that satellites would be sandblasted.

Nothing happened.

"This year there is concern but much less panic," Cooke said. "There is a degree of concern because this is the first meteor storm of the modern space age." Only a few dozen satellites were operating in 1966. Today, several hundred are in orbit, and much of Earth's communications network is tied through them.

Yet Cooke has reason to be calm about the potential for harm. He went back to the historical record. During the Apollo lunar landing program, NASA wanted to know the meteor hazard to the Apollo manned spacecraft.

NASA/Marshall outfitted the upper stages of three Saturn I rockets (the two-stage predecessors of the massive Saturn V) as Pegasus satellites with immense wings that spread in orbit. The wings were equipped with thin metal plates to act as discharging capacitors when struck by a meteoroid to record impacts. Both Pegasus 2 and 3 were still operating during the 1965 and 1966 Leonids.

In 1965, they recorded two impacts, and in 1966, one impact.

"But not a single impact occurred when the satellites were exposed to the radiant," the direction of the Leonids, Cooke said. They all happened when the spacecraft were on the other side of the world and thus shielded by the Earth.

"One impact when you're seeing 150,000 an hour gives you an idea of the relative threat," Cooke said. "That is, there's not much of a threat at all." Cooke estimates that the chances of any one satellite getting hit range from 1 in 1 million to 1 in 10,000.

Still, as any statistician or gambler will tell you, long odds don't translate into an absolute zero chance. In August 1993, during the Perseids, an Olympus communications satellite was lost to a meteor hit. The impact formed a plasma cloud that caused electrical discharges in the spacecraft and zapped its attitude control system. By the time operators could stabilize it, they had depleted all of its attitude control propellant and the satellite was a loss.

The only sure meteor protection for a satellite is to keep it on the ground. But measures can be taken to mitigate the risks for those in orbit. These include turning off all but the most crucial electronics to reduce the risk of short circuits in case of an impact, and pointing sensitive optics and solar arrays away from the Leonids.

The degree of risk will vary with location. Those on the opposite side of the Earth will be shielded from the Leonids (but can still get hit from behind). Those in geostationary orbit will be less exposed if their orbit has them on the dayside of Earth since the peak flux is expected on the night side.

This year's Leonid watch will be a larger version of the 1998 storm watch that deployed teams equipped with radar and optical instruments to Mongolia and northwest Australia on a line where the Leonids were expected to peak.

Unfortunately, the estimate of peak rate was off by 16 hours and the Canary Islands were the best place to observe (this year, Eastern Europe and the Near East are expected to be the best places). Cooke said the only fireball seen by the Mongolian team was their tent burning after it caught fire when their hosts used a wood stove to warm a truck's gasoline that had congealed in the extreme cold. (No one was seriously injured.)

For 1999, a broader array of gear will be deployed, including radar in (appropriately) Alert, Canada. At 82 deg. N latitude, the source of the Leonids will never set. Other observing stations have been set up in Israel, the Canary Islands, Hawaii, Key West, and Kwajalein Atoll in the Central Pacific. In addition, NASA's NC-135 Flying Infrared Signature Technology Aircraft and an Air Force EC-18 Advanced Range Instrumentation Aircraft will be airborne with optical instruments to make stereo images of Leonid fireballs.

Data will be collected at the Leonids Environment Operations Center at NASA/Marshall every 15 to 60 minutes - depending on activity - and provided to the satellite user community over the web. The web site will not be available to the public, Cooke said, to keep it from being swamped by requests.

That's OK because the center won't paint a pretty picture, literally. Cooke said that most of the data will be tabular, with the most important products being the flux numbers. A special Leonid fluence calculator has been available since July that lets operators input satellite position data and get an idea of what's flying through their neighborhood. This fluence calculator is used before the Leonids to estimate the risk to a particular spacecraft.

There is no doubt that satellite operators are glad the chance of damage is small, even if this year produces a great show for sky watchers. Cooke noted that not enough is known about the Leonids to predict exactly what they will do, as witnessed by last year's disappointing show.

"We may be dealing with a very asymmetrical stream of material," he said.

And we probably are dealing with the show of the decade, or perhaps the next century, if it materializes as expected.

"After 2000, you won't see another one for about 100 years," Cooke said. "This year is your last chance for a long time."

-- (fan@of.nasa), November 17, 1999.

The meteor that powder saw was going the wrong direction for a leonid. Alot of people in the midwest seen that one & some think it was space debrie or a possible missle of sorts--or maybe a ufo--lot of speculation--you decide.

-- mchenry (cymchenry@seidata.com), November 17, 1999.

http://www.sightings.com/ufo5/hundreds.htm

The midwest sighting

-- mchenry (cymchenry@siedata.com), November 17, 1999.

Like Andy Ray and those debunkers have no respect or belief in science? What gives?

-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), November 17, 1999.

From a mailing to rationalists - a very interesting historical survey of the Leonid showers in American History: (I hope the formatting comes through)

Along with the possibility of an incredible natural display, what makes the Leonid shower interesting is its rich history and connection with religious-apocalyptic fears. This year's display, if it develops as a major "storm," could fuel the millennialists' expectation and jitters now already resonating throughout much of western culture, particular the United States. As in past eras, some religious believers may perceive what to the rest of us is a wonderful astronomical event as a "sign" of coming calamities foretold in apocalyptic texts such as Revelation and the Book of Daniel. Beliefs concerning the harbinger-like quality of comets, meteors and eclipses were often incorporated into ancient religions. Madelyn Murray O'Hair noted in an essay "Comets and Religion," ("An Atheist Speaks," American Atheist Press, 1986):

"Stars and meteors presaged happy events -- the births of gods, heroes, great men. The sacred books of India showed that the birth of Krishna and of Buddha were announced by heavenly lights. China tells us in her holy books of similar appearances at the birth of Y (founder of the first dynasty) and at the birth of the sage Lao-tse. The old Jewish legends have a star appearing at the birth of Moses. When Abraham was born, an unusual star appeared in the east. Most of the Caesars of the Roman Empire were born coincident with the appearance of splendid and unusual stars -- even Aesculapius was so honored. Every Christian knows the stars led the wise men to the East to "his" manger, and they mean Jesus Christ..."

In 1833, the Leonids put on an incredible display that many sensed was the fulfillment of Biblical prophecy. One story involves Abraham Lincoln who witnessed the shower while a young man in New Salem, Illinois. As noted in an article in the November, 1999 issue of SKY & TELESCOPE magazine, though, this comes down through history not from official biographers of the late president, but from an entry in the collected works of Walt Whitman (1819-1892), who published the story as "A Lincoln Reminiscence" in a larger volume of work.

The story tells of Lincoln meeting with a delegation of bank presidents in the early days of the Civil War; one official asked the president if he was losing confidence in the ability of the young Union to survive. Lincoln reminisced about something he had witnessed earlier in his life. Whitman recounts Lincoln's words:

"''When I was a young man in Illinois,' said he, 'I boarded for a time with a Deacon of the Presbyterian church. One night I was roused from my sleep by a rap at the door, & I heard the Deacon's voice exclaiming' 'Arise, Abraham, the day of judgment has come!' I sprang from my bed & rushed to the window, and saw the stars falling in great showers! But looking back on them in the heavens I saw all the grand old constellations with which I was so well acquainted, fixed and true in their places. Gentlemen, the world did not come to an end then, nor will the Union now.'"

How prominent was the 1833 storm? Agnes Clerke, writing in her "Popular History of Astronomy" (London, Adam and Charles Black, 1908) noted, "240,000 must have been visible during the nine hours they continued to fall..." Another astronomer, Dennis Olmsted, likened the Leonid apparition to "half the number of flakes that one see in the air during a snow shower." He correctly deduced that meteors originated outside the atmosphere in space, and were associated with the elliptical orbits of comets. Camille Flammarion, one of the great nineteenth century popularizers of astronomy, noted "The next day (after the Leonid storm) an American farmer said he was curious to have a look at the sky that evening so as to see whether there were any stars left..."

Another clue to the apocalyptic dimension of the 1833 Leonids -- and perhaps any outstanding or unusual celestial event -- is found in Fawn Brodie's definitive biography of Joseph Smith, inventor of the Mormon religion, "No Man Knows My History" (1990, 2nd Ed., N.Y., Knopf).

Smith had started his sect, and with his followers had reached the area of Independence, Missouri. Brodie describes the emotionally charged dread of the Leonid apparition that year:

"On the night of November 13 (1833) a cry of astonishment resounded through the camp: 'In God's name look up to the heavens! The stars are falling out of the sky!' The shivering people crawled out of their bark shelters and peered upward through the gaunt trees. Hundreds of brilliant meteors were shooting across the firmament, leaving in their wake long trains of light. It was one of the greatest meteoric showers in the century, and all over the States people watched it awed and frightened. But nowhere else as among these outcasts (Mormons) did men greet it with such rapture: 'God be praised, it is a sign of the end of the world!'"

Still more sources suggest the apocalyptic fears associated with the Leonids and other astronomical phenomena. Visits by Comet Tempel- Tuttle, and the resultant Leonid displays, caused panics in 1799, 1833 and 1866. The Leonids even played a role in the development of America's most visible, organized apocalyptic movement, that centered on a New York farmer named William Miller who in the nineteenth century predicted the end of the world and Second Coming of Christ. In 1831, after several years of scrutinizing the passages of the Bible, Miller announced that he had calculated that the apocalypse would occur in 1843, The great Leonid storm of 1833 struck many, including the swelling ranks of the Millerite movement, as evident and undeniable fulfillment of prophesy. Believers pointed to Mark 13:24- 26 which predicted: "The sun shall be darkened, and the moon shall not give her light, and the stars of heaven shall fall, and the powers that are in heaven shall be shaken. And then shall they see the Son of man coming in the clouds with great power and glory..."

A passage from the Book of Revelation 6:12-16 described similar astronomical events and was considered equally portentous. It describes the opening of the Sixth Seal when "there was a great earthquake; and the sun became black as sackcloth of hair, and the moon became as blood; And the stars of heaven fell unto the earth, even as a fig tree casteth her untimely figs, when she is shaken of a mighty wind..."

Miller, of course was wrong, and even managed to predict two more dates for the end of world. This "failure of prophecy" became known in American history as The Great Disappointment; but out of the dismal calamity of the Millerite movement arose new apocalyptic groups, including the Seventh-Day Adventist sect headed by Ellen G. White. She described the Leonid storm of 1833 as "the most extensive and wonderful display of falling stars which has ever been recorded." She also consider the meteor storm the fulfillment of a series of prophetic events, which included the Lisbon earthquake of 1755 and the "Dark Day" of 1780 (likely caused by massive fires or a volcano). The fact that Christ's return was not "immanent," though, led many to question the claim that these events could have been the signs described in apocalyptic texts.

Another record of the 1833 Leonid storm comes from an intolerant traveling preacher or "circuit rider" named Samuel Rogers. His biography, published in 1880 as "Toils and Struggles of the Olden Times" recounts how he was present in Virginia in 1833 and witnessed the meteors blaze across the night sky on that illustrious date. "We had but little rest that night, for, before three o'clock in the morning, we were all aroused from our slumbers, making preparations for an early start. Someone, on looking out of the window, observed that it was almost broad daylight. 'That cannot be,' another answered...'

"Someone went to the door for the purpose of settling the question. Fortunately, there was not a cloud in the heavens; so, by a glance, all was settled. I heard one of the children cry out, in a voice expressive of alarm: 'Come to the door, father, the world is surely coming to an end.' Another exclaimed: 'See! The whole heavens are on fire! All the stars are falling...'"

Rogers adds "It must be remembered that, in the Western States, at that day, there was not much knowledge among the masses upon the subject of meteorology (sic). No tome in a thousand could give any rational account of this wonderful phenomenon; so it will appear strange that there was widespread alarm at this 'star-shooting,' so called. Some really thought that Judgment Day was at hand, and they fell on their knees in penitence, confessing all of the sins of their past lives, and calling upon God to have mercy... One old lady was emphatic in the statement that it was certainly a 'token of some sign...'"

The search for signs, among believers at least, continues. Would an enormous Leonid "storm" this year trigger reactions of panic among apocalyptic believers? One report on the impact of the Y2K "bug" suggests that "Events like the Leonids meteor shower toward the end of 1999 will only add to the hysteria. It is possible that hype will create a self-fulfilling prophecy." Equally compelling is the fact that by some calculations, Comet Tempel-Tuttle will likely cross the orbital path of the earth in 2097, although the chances of a collision are small.

An incredible Leonid storm this year -- if it occurs -- is sure to pique the public imagination, and confirm for some apocalyptic believers, as well as those who might fall prey to a building millennialist fervor, that "something" profound is due to occur, soon, in human affairs. For the rest of us, the Leonids should be seen more rationally as both a wonder of the natural world, and an event that thanks to science, we have come to understand.For further information:

http://www.astronomy.com

http://www.skypub.com

http://www.atheist s.org/flash.line/mill3.htm

http://www.atheists .org/flash.line/y2k-1.htm

http://www.americanat heist.org/win96-7/T2/

-- secular humanist (privacy@nowhere.non), November 17, 1999.

I've noticed on other boards that secular humanists seem to do an awful lot of cutting & pasting. Apparently original thinking isn't characteristic of the breed, any more than it is of the religious fundamentalists that they relish mocking.

Does this one (s.h.) have an original thought in his/her head, with regards to meteor showers, y2k, or any other topic?

-- not that (I@really.care), November 17, 1999.

No reason to worry. We can live without satellites.

For those who want to watch and may be clouded in, NASA is going to launch a balloon that will be filming the show tomorrow evening:

http://www.leonidslive.com/

"Bookmark this spot and return on November 18, 1999 for a live webcast of the meteor shower from the stratosphere! Replays will also be available soon after the shower."

-- Hawk (flyin@high.again), November 17, 1999.

I've noticed on other boards that secular humanists seem to do an awful lot of cutting & pasting.

I noticed that many immature human beings make a lot of erroneous gross generalizations, and have really rotten communication skills...what's up with that?

-- Donna (moment@pacbell.net), November 17, 1999.

Worried? No. There is plenty to worry about that I can do something about (buy rice & beans). Shit falling from the sky is a bit out of my control.

-- (rcarver@inacom.com), November 17, 1999.

I prefer to cut and paste an articulate well researched article that explains things than to ramble on just to feed my own ego or listen to myself talk.

I posted the history to let other lurkers know why there is an obsession with the Leonid meteor showers on this board - it is part of an historical pattern of looking for natural disasters that indicate the "end times".

My very unoriginal thoughts on this is that people who are looking for the end times are worthy of being mocked. I think that Y2K is a design defect in computer systems that has the potential of causing major problems, and it has been difficult to get normal people to take it seriously because the lunatic fringe has piled onto Y2K as a sign of the end times. This has discredited the entire Y2K preparedness movement.

You wonder why people won't take Y2K preparedness seriously - look within.

-- secular humanist (somewhere@x.not), November 17, 1999.

She in the Sheets,

You're in rare form today.

-- flora (***@__._), November 17, 1999.

I can't wait to see it! This is the first time in years, there will be no clouds when a sky show happens. Oh yeah, yes we will loose some of those orbiting thingies.

-- FLAME AWAY (BLehman202@aol.com), November 17, 1999.

"Oh yeah, yes we will loose some of those orbiting thingies.

-- FLAME AWAY (BLehman202@aol.com)"

You will be proven the fool yet again, Scotty.

-- Idiot (complete@nd.total), November 17, 1999.

--Idiot (complete@nd.total), November 17, 1999.--

Great handle, did you have help with it? Or did it just come to you during a seizure?

-- Michael (mikeymac@uswest.net), November 17, 1999.

There COULD be a problem...but odds are maybe 50-50 or so. Maybe it'll take out the Hubble (which isn't working anyway!).

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), November 17, 1999.