Mini survey - First list your Y2k expectation rating for the first month of 2000; then your qualifications for substantiating that rating and lastly your single, most favorite piece of evidence to support your rating (I know one piece might be too difficult because a lot of us could write volumes. I'll go first. The reason I'm asking this is because I would like to know and someone mentioned before about 8 hundred plus man years of programming experience on this board but also about the other walks of life represented on this board as well.

3 domestic, 6.5 international

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I have no computer/hardware employment experience whatsoever, I've merely been reading about it for the past 3-5 months. I manage a mobile home park, mostly a small business owner my whole life.

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The one piece of evidence that supports my Y2K rating more than any other is the article I read about how much the corporations have spent on Y2K with Citicorp at the top of the list.

-- Guy Daley (guydaley@bwn.net), November 16, 1999

Answers

global depression, like the 30's, except more violent

18 years in software and systems

Researching daily for 17 months

-- a (a@a.a), November 16, 1999.

I've bounced around in trivial jobs. I am going to pull out my book length piece published many years ago in True Confessions on the homeless as my qualification to speak.

I think we're in for it. I think a significant part of the problem has been incompetence at the Federal level and incorrect choices made in regards on how to handle "the bug" and also the "millennium."

I think we will see on our t.v. screens the surreal masses and masses of people, in this nation, standing in front of a relief center as a resource for food. They will be as one seemingly to us viewing it, all of them swaying in unison slightly this way and that, because they are crammed together in such high density. It'll just be a quick flick almost a camera angle by accident and what we'll mostly be shown is the 5-10 focused on somehow making it all look so small in number to us as was done to the ethnic Albanian refugees. And like the refugees the victims will be told exactly what to say for the "perception." We'll witness people walking along the side of the road with bed rolls, and so many in a day our hearts grow a bit cold, because it is just too damn many of them to help. The number of the dead will be kept secret. We'll see angry groups form to take action and oddly, now and then, something someone said will make sense to us. We will watch t.v. or listen to radio with suspicion because we Internet users know it's all lies out there. There will be murder suicides to the point that no one wants to hear of another. We'll witness once sane people become "crazies." A few in key positions may commite suicide from very real guilt. A small community in this or that state will gather relief items all donated and those items will sit in a room going nowhere. And in the aftermath of it all will come "good deals." We'll walk up to our new house and the door is swinging open hitting the frame a bit askew, its been swinging like that for some time, and we'll step in and hear a couple of leaves crunch under our feet, and somehow the house will never fell quite right though it was all that we dreamed of, and we'll wonder about the people who had lived in it before us all our lives. We'll slap on a mask of slight coldness trying desperately to play "capitalist" to not face the pencil markings on a wall that had marked the height of a growing child. And then we'll crumple one night in that "good deal" and silently cry to the ghosts in the shadows, "Ooh god I am so sorry!"

-- Paula (chowbabe@pacbell.net), November 16, 1999.

Jan 2000 - 9.5 total
Mid-year - Global depression, 5 to 10 Fortune 500 companies close,
merge or are acquired.
International impact being the largest reason. Several large scale violent civil wars erupt, including the increase in scope of the war currently underway in Mexico due to rising unemployment.
Disruptions in the JIT supply lines and current manufacturing process combined with basically a shutdown of the IRS and welfare services of the Federal government and in many states results in 15-20% unemployment, some violence in the larger cities.
Recovery occurs in early 2001 after the election, but will take 4-5 years domestically. Disruptions overseas continue well into the first decade.
My background? 10 years senior management experience at a large transportation firm, 2 years network and systems design as a consultant (primarily in logistics). Extensive travel to Latin America and the Carribbean.

-- John 9.5 Galt (jgaltfla@hotmail.com), November 16, 1999.

Overall, 4 domestic (with 8.5/9 in Washington DC, LA, NY) (interuptions in gasoline/oil, sharply higher prices there. Utilities, ok; scattered sewer/water problems; JIT delivery systems slowed; frustrations and/or long lines/waits while trying to get account information or computer errors fixed)

International: 7 but with fewer power related problems (most developing countries are used to intermittent power outages)

-------------------------------------------------------------- I'm a 15-year radio journalist who has spent the last 18 months studying Y2K and talked to lots of folks from industry PR people to internet 'doomers'.

=================================================================== What got me interested was Art Bell's program on Y2K early last year.

-- Lara (nprbuff@hotmail.com), November 16, 1999.

Global recession/depression, lasting 6 months to two years. US stock market Dow Jones 6000-8000, Nasdaq 1500, Crude Oil for Jan, Feb delivery 30 dollars, Gasoline spot price, 1.10 per gallon (current is .70 in the harbor)this equates to 2 dollar pump price lasting 3 months.

Some areas of the world will be set back 10 years, others a century.

Crude oil analyst, studying Y2K for two years.

-- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), November 16, 1999.

I'm going with a 7 overall, but 9.0 to 9.9 in NYC, D.C., Detroit, Atlanta and L.A. These higher estimates due mainly to electrical failures and the resulting failure of the welfare system.

Other major factors will be energy i.e, imported oil. This has the potential to be very bad with severe shortages of gasoline and home heating oil. Worst case scenario...oil imports cut 50% resulting in $3 a gallon gas and heating oil around $2.25 per gallon...IF it is available at all. Rationing would not surprise me.

Social breakdown very minimal except in the big cities listed above.

Stock market at 6,800 by March 15th. Unemployment 15% nationwide except 30-40% in the Northeast and Upper Midwest due to energy shortfall. Severe recession/borderline depression until July, 2001.

Food and medicine may be a problem in remote or rural areas.

The amount of money spent by a corporation is meaningless. All that matters is that the systems function correctly. If they collapse in cascading failures, one dollar or one billion dollars makes no difference.

FOUNDATION: 25 years in media.

CONCLUSION: Still a STRONG 7. I WOULD LOVE TO BE WRONG!

Regards,

Irving

-- Irving (irvingf@myremarq.com), November 16, 1999.

Folks, let's get a couple of things clear:

1) Most people in America *don't* live in cities, they live in the suburbs. If the power goes out and people are going to be crazed, they are not coming from "the Inner Cities" they'll come from the suburbs. Just look to Hurricane Andrew. It was the towns like Homestead and Coral Gables where people nearly attacked each other to get water and other emergency supplies. NOT in the big city of Miami. Before you get lulled into a false sense of security ... thinking that if you live in the suburbs you'll be safe....THINK TWICE>

2) So many states have cut back or slashed welfare that most of the government cash is now going to people OVER THE AGE OF 65. That's social security, medicaid, meals on wheels, etc. There will be few people on welfare "from the Inner Cities" left to riot and come gunning for your supplies. Again, keep an eye on your suburban neighbors. The old man across the street ... the old lady down the road ... they elderly couple kitty corner from the school. They get the most government "handouts" that are from agencies not Y2K compliant. They might not come over with a gun .... they might come over with a sorry look and beg you to share. They might just stay in their homes and die.

Give up hiding behind racist assumptions and rhetoric .... and think about who your real enemy would be.

-- Sickofracist (b.s.@freeyourmind.com), November 16, 1999.

1.10 a gallon would be a significant drop of price in my area. And I do mean a significant drop.

SoCA, Riverside County

-- Paula (chowbabe@pacbell.net), November 16, 1999.

Just look to Hurricane Andrew. It was the towns like Homestead and Coral Gables where people nearly attacked each other to get water and other emergency supplies. NOT in the big city of Miami

Uh, Einstein, that's because Homestead got wacked by the hurricane, not Miami.

-- a (a@a.a), November 16, 1999.

- a

Not fair. The point was that Homestead, Florida City, Coral Gables ARE the suburbs and it is true that a second full scale disaster was averted because the military arrived just in time. It was a nightmare in the burbs.

Had Andrew hit the big city of Miami, well, whose to say what would have happened.

-- the Virginian (1@1.com), November 16, 1999.

Sickofracist-

If I remember correctly, back in '92, (or was it '93)it was South Central Los Angeles (which I believe can be defined as inner city) that rioted, not Simi Valley or Northridge. Same with the Watts riots, D.C., NYC. City......city, city, city. Those are the facts. People from the suburbs just don't have a long history of unrest and violence. That's why folks move there, Dopey, 'cause it's safe. Those are not "rasict assumptions and rhetoric", they are facts. The farther you are from large population centers, no matter their racial composition, the safer you will be. Quit hiding behind your veil of righteous indignation, it's wearing thin.

-- cavscout (sickof@$$.holescallingpeopleracist), November 16, 1999.

Look, what I'm saying to you is after a natural disaster, you could get robbed blind or killed because you were so stupidly racist that you thought you had to defend yourself from "the inner city" looters when in fact you may have to shoot your neighbors.

Again, the last huge natural disaster in Florida, Hurricane Andrew had looters coming from those famous Inner City hotspots like Homestead and Cutler Ridge

From a reader in West Homestead to the Tampa Tribne:"...What most reporters do not mention is the looters. I saw looting in Parkview before the wind had even passed. Looters roamed neighborhoods with no thought for police. When we complained, we were told that we were on our own. So we got out our guns and used them to protect our property. One of the more serious aftermaths is looting. Police didn't care. Only the arrival of the Army helped with their ongoing patrols and nightly helicopter fly-overs."

Also: "Looters are stealing everything from chain saws to tents to lanterns, as well as household goods from wrecked houses, in south Florida; example cited of man who put on camouflage outfit and began looting National Guard Armory in Homestead."

This from Gainesville after Andrew: "Although looting in commercial areas began even before the winds subsided, residential areas were largely spared, the study found. Few people said their homes were vandalized or their property was stolen, and most said they were not aware of any crime in their neighborhoods.

Occasionally, residents reported seeing looters walk by their homes carrying stolen goods, but the merchandise was from local shopping centers, not the neighborhoods themselves."

and this from the Famous Inner City enclave of Cutler Ridge, FL:

"Profile of Phil Van der Mude, owner of bait and tackle shop in Cutler Ridge (Fla) whose house and shop were wrecked by Hurricane Andrew; Van der Mude says looters took doors off freezers to steal ice and scattered bait."

And finally this jewel from the Miami Herald:

"Three Florida City police officers are under investigation on suspicion of looting Homestead Radio Shack store several days after it was wrecked by Hurricane Andrew."

-- Sickofracist (b.s.@freeyourmind.com), November 16, 1999.

1-10 ratings here are wide as a scale to measure problems by but I'll take a shot at it:

5 Domestic and 9.5 International Severe recession to depression in U.S. and International depression for 1-3 years beginning with Q1. Dow 6534 by March, 3510 by June Advent of new monetary system within 5-10 years

I have not purchased a book or tape on Y2K but have researched through the net since March 1998. Primarily have followed GAO, Steve Horn, Senate Y2K Committee, and other hearings. I've been to two Senate Hearings. Just joined this thread a couple of months ago and haven't followed Gary North at all as to not be persuaded by the 10.0 mentality. Only within the last several months have I read any of Mr. Yourdons material on the net. I like his non-Y2K writings. Especially this one, Leaving Montana. http://www.yourdon.com/journal/960901.html

To limit the reason for my expectations to one piece of evidence is way to hard but I'll say 3 things come to mind.

1. Senator Bennett pointing his finger at the May 25th panel and saying, "take responsibility for your own Y2K situation". And Senator Dodd saying, "Y2K is no joke.". Call that "listening" between the lines.

2 U.S. Post Office Inspector General testimony last February. Which still blows my mind.

http://www.house.gov/reform/gmit/hearings/testimony/990223kc.htm

3. When our President lied under oath. The truth is not in him or his administration. He or his associates would have to work very hard to earn my trust on anything they say.

Make it 4. I do not have the link but Mr. Yardeni at some point not to long ago, said something to the affect that he believed that the recession scenario was valid but that there is the possibility of Y2K "taking us even further back in time." (and before any nutcase takes away any of his credibility, this guy IS the Chief Economist for the world's largest bank. Would the world's largest bank let a fool be their Chief Economist?

-- the Virginian (1@1.com), November 16, 1999.

"People from the suburbs just don't have a long history of unrest and violence."

Okay, maybe it's just the *kids* of suburbanites who do:

Woodstock 1999: Thousands of young, white suburban kids "began overturning cars, ripping up tents and vendor booths, pulling down lighting stands and scaffolding and setting fires throughout the venue."

Since 1995, there have been riots involving white college students at Colorado University, Iowa State, Penn State, the Universities of Wisconsin at Whitewater and Oshkosh, Southern Illinois University, the University of Delaware, Michigan State, Washington State, Plymouth State, the University of Akron and the University of New Hampshire."

=======================

Just FYI, If you take out the last 20 years, in the 200years+ history of this country, 90% of the riots in this country have involved whites.

-- Coed (Pac10@WassamadderwiU.com), November 16, 1999.

Gordon:

Not to sound too critical, but do you know what you're saying with a GLOBAL DEPRESSION AND DOW 6000-8000? THEY ARE MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE. Your knowledge of history/math is seriously lacking. The DOW as it is NOW is FAIRLY valued around 3500! YES, 3500. So how, in a massive depression, do you expect to see it only about 25-35% lower than it is now?

The basic fact is that we WILL see a GREATER depression very early into the 21st century, BUT Y2K is NOT NECESSARILY the trigger or the series that precipitates it. The target for the DOW in this massive depression is DOW 40-400. So knock a zero (at least) off your prediction.

My experience is 2.5 years of reading/studying y2k (several thousand hours), middle-age(NOT wet-behind-the-ears starry-eyed stunned DGI), college educated, top 1/10 percentile in mathematics, have read Elliott wave theory for over 4 years. Have read more HISTORY than over 99% of population. Knowledge of Kondratieff waves and their cycles--in fact, if I were to try to explain to someone WHY we ARE NOT in a NEW ERA, I would just tell them to study any of the dozens of books on this.

I am a techie by trade, and have knowledge of networks and computers/operating systems.

My prediction for Y2K itself? Only about a 1 to start HERE, but escalating quickly to about a 7 by summer/fall 2000 as the JIT system breaks down under corrupted data, failed companies who never did get remediated go under, the 50% of small companies who have done NOTHING(and are the suppliers to the BIGGER AND BIG companies) lack of petroleum stocks, etc. all undergo severe bottlenecks.

International, I see BIG problems from the get-go. I look for an average 3 or 4 to start there, with the same resulting degradation through 2000. Remember some countries are for all purposes at about a 4 already(CUBA, INDONESIA) GOT GAS? GOT GOLD? GOT MILK? GOT MOO-LAH?

-- profit of doom (doom@helltopay.ca), November 16, 1999.

Guy --

This is gonna be tricky. Because it depends. (Yeah, Yeah, I know, what a copout.;-)

Prediction -- Scenario A) (We have a real handle on the embedded chip problem.) 5-7 Domestic 8-9 Intl. (Jan 1 thru Feb. 29) 8-9 Domestic 9-10 Intl. (After Feb. 29)

Scenario B) (We Haven't got a handle on embeddeds.) 9-10 Domestic 10+ Intl. (Jan 1 thru Jan 31) 10+ Domestic 10+ Intl. (After Jan.)

I see it sliding from bad to worse due to snowball effect, the problems come at us faster than we can correct and we get overwhelmed.

Approx. 11 years programming, operating and maintaining mainframes, Approx. 10 years (overlapping) of analog and digital design, Approx. 25 years embedded (much overlap),

Reasons: Lack of progress at current company, along with lack of obvious cues in the industry. (Such things as low-ball contract rates for Y2K remediation work, most jobs being things other than remediation, etc. Mostly negative inferences. "The dog did not bark in the night" type of things.

-- just another (another@engineer.com), November 17, 1999.

10.5 minimum

.....background; artist, (drawing, painting & sculpture), amatuer historian, borderline Scriptural scholar.

.....By the way of Rome, on a grander scale, of course.

-- Patrick (pmchenry@gradall.com), November 17, 1999.

Coed-

You call those RIOTS? Catch a clue. I lived block down from one of those so-called riots. I sat in my lawn chair and used it as entertainment for the evening while the mostly (yes) white "mob" looted one liqour store. You and Sickof need to get down off your soapbox and knock off the bigot baiting. Looters are looters whether they're in florida or LA, black or white. Hopefully none of us will have to deal with them. In any case I resent being painted with your overly broad and stupid brush.

-- cavscout (doesn't@suffer.fools), November 17, 1999.

1. First month: A 7 In North America & major developed countries; 8-10 internationally. The worst effects will be in large cities in developing countries, like Shanghai, Jakarta, Moscow, etc. While people in these cities are used to substandard infrastructure, they are very dependant on supply chains, are densly packed, and are no stranger to violence.

My gut feel is that there will be significant problems with embedded systems, a brief pause as people think that the worst has passed, and then things will get _very_ interesting as existing inventories are depleted, supply chains break down and corrupt data makes its way through computer systems.

2. Experience No job-related experience with computers, but a longstanding interest in technology of all sorts. I've lived in Asia for more than a decade and have spent most of that time working as a consultant to large multinationals. Over that time I've learned two things: Most multinationals react with the speed and intelligence of sea slugs, and with the exception of Japan, in most Asian countries preventative maintenance is very low on the list of corporate priorities.

3. Reasons > First-hand observation of corporate and government behavior > First-hand exposure to international trade and its interdependancies > A year of studying Y2K on a daily basis > Dr Ed Yardeni

[BTW, Virginian, Yardeni is the Chief Economist for Deutsche Bank. His web site [WWW.Yardeni.com] is a very useful source of information.

-- Midas (midas_mulligan_2000@yahoo.com), November 17, 1999.

Who said anything about Race??? It has NOTHING to do with skin color and EVERYTHING to do with the history of riots and civil unrest in contemporary American history. Speaking strictly for myself, I don't care about the ethnicity of anybody. ANYONE, regardless of their color, creed, faith (or lack thereof), or any other factor you choose to apply...who engages in looting or violence as a result of Y2K failures...is a CRIMINAL and should be dealt with as such!

Regards,

Irving

-- Irving (irvingf@myremarq.com), November 17, 1999.

Could go anyway. I am guessing a 6 IF no major terrorist/war/martial law type incident.

Normal 1st of January depending on embedded chips, unraveling through 1st half of 2000, then gets better or totally collapses.

Remember there are TWO PROBLEMS here. One is the computer/chip problem. The other is peoples reactions to the problems. Remember we were shooting each other in gas lines during the Arab oil embargo. Inner cities have been burned for very trivial reasons. Are terrorists waiting to strike? Will Clinton try for a dictatorship? Will Hillary try for Queen?

We are not the people our grandparents were during the depression. 70 years ago, the cities were not a mix of soft yuppies, third generation welfare recipients and illeagal aliens.

Worst case scenario: If the West is busy with Y2K, will the Arabs try to do in Israel once and for all?, will North Korea jump South Korea?, will Mainland China try to reposes Taiwan?

My credentials: Military brat including two tours in Cold War Europe. Active US Navy several trips around the Orient during Viet Nam era and National Guard Army full time, Air Guard part time. Experience with Military computers, phone company computers, media computers 21 years total. Been through the survivalist boom of the early 80's and the Cold war crisises. Been onto Y2K since 1997

Prepare for a wild and bumpy ride

-- bookworm (at the book rack@crown.com), November 17, 1999.

15 years Hardware/Software

US severe recession/Depression 1-3 years

Other countries recessions/depressions lasting 1-?

Markets US could be devastating, but I think the PR machine will be working overtime to keep things inflated all in all Dow 2,000 to 3,000 Naz 800-1000.

I do think this event will change perspective on many things for many people, and hopefully for the better

Everyone IMO will feel the impact, 40-70% drop in Real Estate, foreclosures, bankruptsies, Bank failures, rising unemployment, sinking consumer confidence. The typical stuff in a downturn. Good luck to all.

-- Rich (Rluck@aol.com), November 17, 1999.

Credentials: Chemist, believe I have good intuitive skills, into Y2K since 1997, fanatical pursuit of evidence with a strong emphasis on first-hand (off-the-record) discussions with economists, Wall St. analysts, IT CEOs, code writers, gold jocks, physical scientists (industrial and academic), elevator repairmen, etc., etc. (Usually it's not what they know, but what they don't know that rattles my cage.)

I sincerely have no idea whatsoever. The only outcome that will truly shock me is BITR. I have good days and bad. (The bad days are either (a) it's really as bad as it looks, or (b) it's nothing at all and I've gone completely psychotic.) There is a very narrow window of possible results in which my need not to be psychotic and my need not to suffer hardships can both be satisfied.

I am in a pool with my brother in which my guess has the DOW at 5200 by June. (He's the polly at 5500.) I hasten to add, however, that the "Profit of Doom" -- Did your mother or your father come up with that name? -- may be closer in his numbers than most people wish to believe. I put fair value on the current market somewhere near 7,000. If indeed the market goes to 5,000 or below, there will be pain and suffering from that alone.

I must confess that DWay (Chair of IEEE Y2K task force) rattled my cage a little (reoriented my thinking) to be a little more optimistic about some things (despite what I find to be compelling arguments by you learned folks.) If DWay is right and power stays on world wide, that limits our damage to some extent. If wrong, it's time for a duck and cover drill like we used to do in the early 60's.

PS--Could somebody post those links to the threads where everybody introduced themselves? I found that to be a compelling view of this forum.

-- Dave (aaa@aaa.com), November 17, 1999.

Okay, I'll bite...

No way to tell domestically. No way to tell internationally.

([chuckle] Yeah, I know, that's the -only- thing we all can say with certainty is that there is no certainty.)

Really though, I'm a middle-of-the-road guy, expecting the inital situation to go 2-4 in the U.S. But, the international scope I expect will go 5-7 and this would drag the U.S. down due to the interconnection issues involved. Total estimate by 2Q 2000, probably a 6-8 with a nice, long depression to lengthen the agony.

Background: 18 years in computer programming on a variety of machines (although none were "big iron") and as many languages.

Reason: Everything. Researched the subject heavily for going on two years now. That plus I know first-hand what a difference one wrongly valued byte makes, let alone two scattered through all manner of data.

That cray-zee guy called-

-- OddOne (mocklamer_1999@yahoo.com), November 17, 1999.

Business Owner (Intl.Telecom) Oil jobber 10years

Banks--Read Dale Ways essay---Gone!

Stock Market-------------Gone!

Irs--Dod--state dept.---Faa--- Gone!

Power---water---Natural gas---very intermittant

Gasoline and diesel-----almost non-existant

Civil unrest------much!!

Welcome!

-- d.b. (dciinc@aol.com), November 17, 1999.

Dave,

Although it pains me, I no longer question my sanity. I know I'm crazy.

I expect a 7, and an 8 is about all I can realistically prepare adequately for. I might be able to survive a 10, but I know many of my relatives would not. My greatest concern is for my 16 month old son.

Trained as an economist, but I have been an end user of computer programs and a time-series data slimer for about 12 years, on everything from old mainframes to TRS-80s to Unix and Windows-based systems. I do a LOT of work with date-related data. I have known that the CDC is a problem with a solution since 1989, but didn't understand the systemic nature of the problem and the happy-face PR BS spin really made me suspicious beginning Summer of '98. Began mental preps then, but began in earnest in March of '99. Found the forum in April of '99 when looking for info on how to prep properly.

Why do I GI? I once took a course which involved touring many of the heavy industrial plants in my area (e.g. steel, oil refinery, sewage treatment, glass, paper). These are HIGHLY complex systems, which are also interconnected through the economy. If they have simultaneous problems, we are up a creek.

-- nothere nothere (notherethere@hotmail.com), November 17, 1999.

I think a 10.

Fifteen years of being an IS professional and watching IS management leads me to this. When I worked for XXX, they had a plan in 1995 to try to convert all mainframe systems to client/server, and address the Y2k bug in the process. They did a pilot project, finished in 1997. They then planned to do about a thousand other programs in the next 3 years. This is actually a project that would take 100 years with the programmers they have. Failure is a certainty.

When I worked for company YYY, they were installing SAP. They abandoned that a few months ago, and are going to convert all their mainframe programs to be Y2k compliant. Not holding my breath, sold my stock.

These management types have never been able to do accurate time estimates. The smart ones ask programmers for time estimates. Most of them, however, simply work backward from the deadline, announcing that you will be done at such and such time. This is the equivalent of telling a house builder that he will have your house built in a week. Doesn't work.

Thanks for letting me vent.

-- Amy Leone (leoneamy@aol.com), November 17, 1999.