Since people keep using this comparison, I thought I would employ my feeble knowledge to help strengthen the analogy. There was much more to the Titanic disaster than simple arrogance. For another great article, catch Dale Way's comparison between the Challenger disaster and Y2K remediation ("Nature cannot be fooled..."):

http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/roleigh_martin/chalnger.htm

First of all, the Titanic sank because the people of that time were working under some basic assumptions. Unfortunately, this particular, spectacular case failed every one of those assumptions.

Assumption: Passenger ships have been running this course for years and never had a problem.

Problem: That was a particularly cold year so the ice floes had come farther south than normal. The captain had actually diverted the course slightly (according to SOP) to go farther south than the normal summer course, but it wasn't far enough.

Assumption: The captain had years of experience handling passenger ships so he is ideal for this ship.

Problem: He had never handled a ship of that size. Nobody had. There is still much debate over the captain's decision making. He was running the ship at full steam through freezing waters. He ignored several reports of icebergs. Some say he made a major navigational mistake when he learned the collision was imminent. More on that in a moment.

Assumption: Passenger ships are built with safety features to protect against sinking in collisions. The Titanic had even newer features than most. There had even been an incident before the Titanic where a ship's hull got punctured. The safeties worked. The ship was able to hobble into a port and safely put it's passengers ashore.

Problem: The safety features worked very well... if the ship got a single great puncture. The nature of the wound on the Titanic seems to have been a series of smaller punctures (actually more like wrinkles in the side of the ship that pulled some of the seams apart) that caused flooding in more safety compartments than was actually, well, safe. The Titanic stopped moving completely shortly after the impact and sank very quickly... in just a few hours. No time to hobble anywhere, even if it was possible. One of the criticisms of what happened that night is that if the steering crew had allowed the ship to ram headlong into the iceberg it may have stood a better chance than it did bouncing along getting gashed multiple times.

Assumption: Because there had been no previous disasters on passenger ships, it was assumed that sea travel was safe.

Problem: Because it was assumed that travel was safe, many safety regulations were overlooked or not even thought of. There were not enough lifeboats for even half of the passengers and crew. There were no formal safety drills for passengers so they would know what to do in an emergency. There were no regulations on the thickness and quality of the steel used to build the ships. There were no emergency communication standards to warn of danger or to respond to ships in trouble. The concerning thing about this is that there was nothing different about the Titanic than any other passenger ship. They were all working according to an accepted standard that simply didn't account for any danger.

And the most famous assumption: The ship was unsinkable.

Problem: Obvious. The result of this assumption was that in the early minutes of the evacuation many of the lifeboats were going out seriously underpopulated. The lifeboats were designed to hold up to 75 people (and had been tested with that many) but some went out with less than 30. One lifeboat designed to hold 40 people left the boat with only 12.

If you want to draw parallels between the Titanic and Y2K, consider these assumptions and also read Dale Way's article. This may help guide you as you consider the implications of possible year 2000 problems.

Also consider this. The Titanic was a terrible tragedy. Over 1500 lives were lost from all "classes" and walks of life. But amidst the tragedy - and part of the tragedy - there were many acts of courage and heroism. The entire engineering crew sank with the ship because they refused to leave the boiler rooms until it was too late. The young men who were sending the SOS refused to abandon their job even after the captain dismissed them. A porter risked his own life several times to lead third class passengers through the maze inside the Titanic so they could reach the lifeboats.

I am very concerned about what may happen in the coming year. But I also know that whatever happens, God will be glorified in the courage and honor of many people.

I can be a doomer without being gloomy, can't I?

Celestine

-- Celestine (maxcel@swlink.net), November 16, 1999

Answers

Courage and honor are one thing...freezing or starving to death are something else entirely. That distinction aside, I share your concern. Thanks for an interesting post.

Regards,

Irving

-- Irving (irvingf@myremarq.com), November 16, 1999.

Celestine, One of the greatest similarities, and to me rather scary is this: People from all walks of life were convinced that technology was their hero and could be counted to carry them safely through all circumstances.The Titanic was new, it was big, it was comfortable and it represented the best that man could do. To most passengers it was considered unsinkable. Experts agreed that it was safe and reliable........1999-- People from all walks of life are convinced that technology can be counted on to solve lifes problems. Computers are 'new', the infrastructure is big, and represents the best that man can do.To most people computers are considered 'unsinkable'. Experts agree that computer technology is safe and reliable. When the Titanic went down passengers could see the water coming up the decks but refused to believe that anything so big and so costly and so new could actually sink like a stone! And now people are being warned of very possible catastrophe, but choose to put their faith in calming words, corrupt government spin, and the desire to not be bothered by anything that might spoil their exceedingly exciting and profitable lifestyles.

-- citizen (lost@sea.com), November 16, 1999.

Scary thought of the day:

I wonder how the Titanic disaster would play out if the passengers and crew where made up entirely of present day Americans?

-- Ocotillo (peeling@out.===), November 17, 1999.

If the ship had only had present day americans?!? The captain/ crew whould have shot everyone, taken 1 lifeboat per crew member, and sailed off, leaving the passengers to die. The crew would have wiated until everyone was DEAD, then sailed back in and robbed their corpses...

-- Crono (Crono@timesend.com), November 17, 1999.