Dear Colleagues,

Can you please give me some suggestions? I will be attending a meeting tomorrow (agenda attached) and I need your help. I own a small seminar business; I'm not an IT professional, and I've only recently begun studying the petroleum industry. I have the opportunity to ask questions to an industry representative, and I'd like to make sure I ask the right ones.

(I have removed the names because I think it is the responsible thing to do.)

11:30 Networking, Special Interest Groups, and New members (SIGs: ---Speakers Program, Government, and Healthcare)

1:00 Introductions and usual business In keeping with the policy of the --- , all presentations are generic and do not promote a presenter's or company's products.

1:15 Y2K Readiness of the Oil Industry, presented by ---- , Vice President, ----- Corporation Paul will provide an assessment of the industries readiness for Y2K and speak specifically about Arizona and Maricopa County. Areas to be covered include IT systems, field systems and contingency planning. ---- is Vice President of Public Affairs and Special Projects for -------- Marketing Company which operates through the Circle K, 76, and Exxon brands in Arizona. --- has spent 35 years in virtually all aspects of the petroleum business. Currently, in addition to his normal duties, he is in charge of the Y2K issue as it relates to almost 5000 gasoline and convenience retail outlets nationwide.

2:00 Break

2:15 Celebration 2000, a Phoenix Event, presented by -------, City of Phoenix Police Dept. The topic of the presentation will be a brief review of the highlights of the Phoenix Police Department's Year 2000 Operational Contingency Plan. The presentation will include citywide deployment plans, a brief review of critical systems failure plans, and preparations being made for the City of Phoenix Celebration 2000 downtown event. -------------- has been with the Phoenix Police Department for 20 years and during that time has enjoyed a wide variety of assignments. For the past five years he has been assigned to supervise the Police Department's full-time bomb squad, to act in the capacity of relief commander of the Department's SWAT team, and to act as emergency planning coordinator for the Department. Some of his most recent projects include the development of a counter-terrorism unit within the department, coordinating the Federal Government's Domestic Terrorism Program, the development of the law enforcement sector of the Metropolitan Medical Response System, and active development of the Phoenix Police Department's Year 2000 Operational Contingency Plan.

3:00 'Head-slappers and High Fives'

A "head-slapper" is something unexpected, an "Ah-ha!" or "Oh, no!" experience. We would like this to be a practical "How to" and "How NOT to" session where members bring examples of solutions that are/are not working, either from their own experience or from the media. This will allow us to celebrate everyone's small victories and discuss lessons learned without having to turn them into full-blown presentations.

3:30 Adjourn"

Ive thought of at least 20 different questions Id like to ask him, unfortunately, time will be limited, so I must reduce my questions to two or three. Ive narrowed them to:

1)Since so many companies are going to delay/stop operations on the rollover, what will happen to the product/equipment if it is down for more than 20 hours? (Its no coincidence that Explorer is closing down for 20. It is my understanding it becomes toast after 21.)

2) Are you preparing? If he says, "no" then Ill ask him if I can go to his house - right now - today. I will offer to go home with him that night to verify that, so that I can let people know that there really IS nothing to worry about.

-- Laura (Ladylogic46@aol.com), November 16, 1999

Answers

Laura - Good luck. My only suggestion is that you prepare yourself for the most frustrating experience in your life.

I wouldn't bother with the last part, but then you'll probably be ready scream before you get there.

You might say, "What have you done to prepare your household?" Instead of a yes-no polarizing question.

Our state utilities guru said a long time ago that she would put the cat out, fill a 2-liter with water and go to bed 12-31, and that only reinforced the official do-nothing mindset.

I hope it's a productive meeting, really, but have been forced into cynicism. I look forward to your report!

-- Becky (rmbolte@wvadventures.net), November 16, 1999.

Becky,

>>>"What have you done to prepare your household?"<<<

Much better idea.

-- Laura (LadyLogic@aol.com), November 16, 1999.

Ask him whether they tested each embedded system or whether they assumed each model was identical regardless of the date of manufacture.

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), November 16, 1999.

Laura, Watch out. Your first question still demonstrates a lack of understanding on pipeline fundamentals. Nothing on a REFINED PRODUCTS pipeline turns to toast after 21 hours, especially in Ariz. I might be in a minority view here on this forum, but in all likelyhood these pipelines are gonna shutdown and come back up with only minor disruptions. Crude oil pipelines in cold climates might have some probs coming back up after an extended period but not products.

If he says hes not preparing, I'd believe him. The vast majority of the oil industry and the population are not preparing. By saying you want to go to his house you're publically declaring you don't believe him.

Here's a few pertinent y2k/oil related questions I'd ask: 1) Due to the fact that these pipeline shutdowns are relatively simple operations, ask him if it wouldn't be logical to assume there's refineries going down as well? Does he know of any?

2) Ask them if he thinks oil producers such as Syria, Venz, Iran, Iraq Russia, Columbia Libya, Indonesia, Nigeria and Gabon are compliant. Then ask him if he realizes these third world backwaters make up about 30% of world crude supplies.

3) Ask them what special plans have been layed to accomidate the huge surge in demand that's inevitably gonna take place the last half of Dec. They'll prob say nothing. Drill em for that.

4) Ask them why Williams of Tulsa failed in their attempt to build a new ground up refinery there in Arizona recently. It would have been the first one since the 60s.

I'm sure this forum can come up with several more good questions.

I'll also take this opportunity to refute some of the extremist oil industry doom and gloom that perpetuated in this forum.

Now a guy like RC, I respect him. He's built a good case and he back's it up with specifics (even though is way too quick with his troll allegations) but there's two others that aren't even really posters here that everyone has been way too quick to embrace:

1) Is the imfamous Mideast remediator that Dog One introduced us to from the Free Republic forum that contends most of the Mideast loading facilities are toast. I noticed some of his other contentions are BUNK -specifically his contentions the Russians are buying up crude and/or tankers. ITS BUNK so where does that leave his credability? I've e-mailed him for clarification over a month ago. He's posted on the FR forum but hes failed to respond to my question or breech the subject again. Read his posts over there (key word searches are easy). He posts under Trident/Delta. Hes a big Semper Fi military guy and I dont think hes a reliable source of info.

But my main point is notice how his nebulous third party contentions are lapped up over here in TB2000. Every few days someone asks for an update.

The oil industry will have probs, but as long as there's power over there (OK I'll concede- a big IF), the Saudis and Kuwaitis will be able to load onto tankers. If they knew they couldn't there'd be a mad scamble for tankers. There hasn't been.

2) DD even said she had no idea her banter would get so much exposure. Have you heard from her lately? I think if she knew she would be in the spotlight she would have retracted a few things. But once again look how her casual comments are taken as gospel here.

Oil tight and its gonna get tighter. I've been saying +$30 crude since mid-summer. We're right on track.

-- Downstreamer (downstream@bigfoot.com), November 16, 1999.

Laura:

I just skimmed your post, so if in your context the following is inappropriate, please disregard it.

Try,

"Is it true that there may be date-sensitive embedded chips (in rigs, pipelines, etc.) which are in remote, inaccessible locations, such as miles under the sea?" (with follow-ups, if time, e.g., What is the significance of this? What is being done to overcome or compensate, work-arounds, etc.)

After this one, hope for more than squirming, red face, "I'll get back to you", doubletalk, etc.

But don't expect more.

Good luck, Laura. Let us know how it went.

-- eve (123@4567.com), November 16, 1999.

Downstreamer,

My source obviously did not respond to you, but he did to me regarding the Russians. This is what he said:

"The Russians are outbidding the locals for "remmant" shipments that are undestined at the time of loading. They are being quite openly loaded on cyrillic named ships and sailing daily. I have NO idea where they are going. There is a newly established "Russian compound" in Jeddah that accomodates several hundred Russians that are doing the deed."

He's there. There's no reason to be lying about it.

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), November 16, 1999.

Laura,

A clarification on my previous post:

"inaccessible" here implies practical inaccessibility; that is, given the limitations of time, money, knowhow and manpower.

Downstreamer: Does my question look ok to you?

-- eve (123@4567.com), November 16, 1999.

Downstreamer,

Clarification please,

>>>Ask him if he realizes these third world backwaters make up about 30% of world crude supplies.<<<

He has been in the business 35 years, I think he understands this. Wouldnt it be better to ask him if Alaska can produce? Dont we (the U.S. receive 20% of our oil from there alone?)

>>>Ask them what special plans have been layed to accommodate the huge surge in demand that's inevitably gonna take place the last half of Dec. They'll prob say nothing. Drill em for that.<<<

Why do you think there is going to be a huge surge? (Im sure hell ask me why I think that.)

Thank you Dog Gone: I will ask him.

Do you think I should e-mail him the questions tonight so that he can prepare for them? Isn't that only fair?

-- Laura (Ladylogic@aol.com), November 16, 1999.

Eve,

Your question (and clarification) sound reasonable to me. I'm wondering though; since machines/equipment are always prone to breakdowns, why would they place them in an area that is (almost) inaccessible?

You can bet I'll let you know how it goes. I'm going to tape record our discussion. I'll transcribe it and post it Thursday or Friday.

-- Laura (Ladylogic@aol.com), November 16, 1999.

Ladylogic,

This is the strange thing about Y2K. All the preceeding informational posts are meaningless if the international financial system is is crippled. This really should be paramount in your discussion. People never ever complete the economic loop of the system of product delivery. Good Luck.....

-- PJC (paulchri@msn.com), November 16, 1999.

Paul,

Yes, Paul, I understand the interconnectivity. I, can only do one thing at a time, and since I was invited to this meeting, I thought I would take the opportunity to find out just how the petroleum industry is faring.

My brother is a branch manager at a local bank - I'm letting him investigate that area. (So far, he says it is not a problem.)

-- Laura (Ladylogic46@aol.com), November 16, 1999.

Ladylogic, you might take a page out of Peter Senge's "The Fifth Discipline" and simply ask him: What conditions or circle of events might or will keep the US from having adequate oil and gas supplies? Complex problems usually require a systems answer.....Keep smiling, Alobar

-- Alobar (alobar01@webtv.net), November 16, 1999.

I am really, really likin' this Laura chick.

-- lisa (lisa@work.now), November 16, 1999.

Downstreamer suggests (and rightfully so)

">>>Ask them what special plans have been layed to accommodate the huge surge in demand that's inevitably gonna take place the last half of Dec. They'll prob say nothing. Drill em for that.<<<

Laura asks

"Why do you think there is going to be a huge surge? (Im sure hell ask me why I think that.)"

Laura

You are going to have to brush up on your y2k 101, this is the crux of the rollover problem is the demand of all supplies by businesses and the public. There is just no way to meet the needs of a conserned society. This is why they are suggesting you to get your gas tank only half full before the 1st cause they couldn't fill up all the vehicles if folks wanted to do it.

Toss in business demands, home heating fuel, "stockpiling" and whoever else filling up their tanks at the end of the year and you have a distribution and storage problem for the industry.

Of course this not only applys to oil but everything else. Meds are a particular consern, they have a highly structured supply chain and just can't "ramp up" so you will hear lots about this problem in the future.

This has been the main brunt of Kosky's game plan is to prevent this from happening. The biggest fear is run on banks.

-- Brian (imager@home.com), November 16, 1999.

Brian,

I don't think that is what Downstream is thinking (at least that doesn't make sense to me.) A HUGE percentage of the people I speak to think that Y2K problems are going to be insignificant. They are not going to hoard gas, they aren't even going to fill up their tanks. I just don't see how this is going to cause an increase in demand.

But, hopefuly, Downstream will tell me what he thinks.

Alobar,

Some things are to complex for any one person to understand. There may be a few people who can grasp our economic system in it's entirety, but I doubt that a P.R. executive can.

(I like you too, Lisa.)

-- Laura (Ladylogic@aol.com), November 16, 1999.

I saw a post by Trident-delta indicating that that Saudi Arabia was working on a plan to bypass Saudi ports and load oil at the ports of adjacent countries. I don't recall if I saw it here or somewhere else. Since there is so little worthwhile information on y2k, I welcome all posts even if they are unsubstantiated.

-- Dave (dannco@hotmail.com), November 16, 1999.

Eve, Your perspective is a good one. There aren't any inaccesible systems in pipelines. Based on RC's contention of 6 month shutdowns needed to truely test, the refinery systems are only 'economically' inaccesible. Production wells are the only oil systems that could have truely inaccesible chips but there's sure alot of disagreement on this forum on this.

-- Downstreamer (downstream@bigfoot.com), November 16, 1999.

Laura,

Brian is right. I do mean pre-rollover year end hoarding. Consumers are gonna fill their tanks and anything else they have although your yuppie SUV driving friends might not do so until they see the lines at the gas stations and grocery stores. Sharp transportation firms and commercial operations are gonna fill up any tankage they have. I even know of firms leasing empty tanker trucks to park on their property. Heating oil customers are gonna fill up too but they usually do anyway at the start of the season. Reread Gordon's post on 'the 34th cycle posted last weekend. Now that the news of the pipelines shutdowns are out, traders are starting to scramble for barrels that guarantee delivery before the end of the year. And don't forget international - where y2k fears are legitimately greater. Any tankage is gonna get filled and I'd bet this panic threat has the potential to snowball if word of refinery shutdowns ensue and/or people and companies start thinking they could get left high and dry.

There's actually already signs of inordinate demand due to stocking up. I'm gonna post another thread with details tonight. But consider Oct of this year had the highest monthly US demand since Feb of '79. This is very unusual for a non-heating oil and a non summer driving month. Plus a Tues night update- the weekly API stats just came out reflecting very high demand from last week. These high oil prices are going higher.

-- Downstreamer (downstream@bigfoot.com), November 16, 1999.

Dog One,

Take note of Dave's reference to Trident Delta's post. I didn't read it but it demonstrates my point. You know as well as I do the Saudis couldn't physically pump through neighboring country facilities. What a joke. More bunk.

-- Downstreamer (downstream@bigfoot.com), November 16, 1999.

Laura, best of luck at your meeting.

"What will Circle K and Exxon and 76 plan to do in order to be able to pump gas to the retail customer in the event of power outages during rollover?"

Admittedly not as important as the supply chain questions above.

-- mommacarestx (nospam@thanks.net), November 16, 1999.

Downstreamer,

I sent you a private e-mail at FR. There is more going on than meets the eye.

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), November 16, 1999.

Colleagues,

I apologize for being a lousy hostess. I've been on the phone with my father. I told him oil is a hot commodity...buy!

Downstreamer,

Thank you for feeding me with a fire hose. I am much better equipped for the meeting. I am honored you would take the time to educate me like this. If you are ever in Phoenix, look me up. I'd love to take you to dinner.

-- Laura (Ladylogic@aol.com), November 16, 1999.

Laura:

Your question on why would they place these chips/equipment in (practically speaking) inaccessible areas is an excellent one and has been hotly debated. I've read essays, interviews, and posts from "insiders" that are mutually contradictory on this.

But read Downstreamer's reply to me above for a little clarification on the inaccessibility issue (I'm sure you already have). And continue to pick his brain on this; he's great. And he and/or others may be able to hotlink some of these interviews for you. I don't have the specific references handy.

We'll be pullin' for ya, Laura.

-- eve (123@4567.com), November 16, 1999.

Sorry to rain on your parade, but what is pinning down some PR flak at a conference going to do for you now? It's to late for anything meaningful to come of this. You should be preparing for what you believe is the personal worst possible scenarios for you. Ask all the questions you want, I'll bet you only get pat, standardized answers.

I'd be more interested in knowing captain SWAT's plans for New Years. Crude was flying again today. Bullish stats. Jan bbls now looking very strong. Yikes. As I said it's to late for this crap, what's done is done or not done as the case may be.

-- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), November 16, 1999.

Eve,

I don't just hotlink for anyone... ;)

And favor to ask,

Could someone hotlink that Gordo Geko Colonial PL + Explorer PL '34th cycle' thread from last Fri for Laura.

-- Downstreamer (downstream@bigfoot.com), November 16, 1999.

Here you go

 Have you thought about the 34th cycle?

-- Brian (imager@home.com), November 16, 1999.

Downstreamer:

By the way, thanks for the mini-critique. You're great to have around; don't leave us.

Talkin' to you soon,

-- eve (123@4567.com), November 16, 1999.

Got it Brian. I'll go read it now.

Thanks again. (I should just record that!)

-- Laura (Ladylogic@aol.com), November 16, 1999.

Unless someone can give me a good reason why I shouldn't, I will mail these questions to Mr. ---- tonight.

1) Since pipelines such as Explorer, Colonial, Mobil, and Sun are going to delay or shut down their systems, wouldnt it be logical to assume refineries will also? Do you know which ones?

2) How are you planning to accommodate the huge surge in demand at the end of the year?

-- Laura (Ladylogic@aol.com), November 16, 1999.

Laura

If you are going to ask questions (and those look good) have the articles about the shutdowns with you. The second question will be a natural.

Don't go wandering all over the planet with ideas stay focused on what you can prove or provide information for. Talk is real cheap with Y2K, everyone does it.

Thats a big problem. This guys focus is dealing with public fears, all you need is good information and his name denying it. Who is right and who is wrong.

The pipelines shutting down is a big wake up call. DOT raised shit big time after the Seattle rupture so they don't need a repeat disruption.

Haven't heard about that for a while. But it would be on the back of their minds.

-- Brian (imager@home.com), November 16, 1999.

Brian,

Those articles are in my brief case, and I'm ready and anxious to go!

-- Laura (Ladylogic@aol.com), November 16, 1999.

L:aura in ref demand increase in Dec:

I am about to order 240 gal K-1 and 180 gal 87 octane unleaded gas for delivery 12/5 or thereabouts. and I have been aware for a while.

Night train

-- jes a cautious footballer (nighttr@ain.lane), November 17, 1999.

Laura,

I hate to burst your bubble...but you're wasting your time. You won't get anything out of the guy, and if you tip him off ahead of time he'll make mince meat of you the next day in person. PR people are usually really good at debate and spinning... I know, I once was a spinmeister and media manipulator for a certain president/vice president. This guy, if he's worth his salt knows and to twist and dodge and only a true professional spin-wrestler can tackle someone like him. That means you pretty much have to know the refining/pipeline/oilfield biz inside and out. Course, there's the possibility that this guy only knows retail and won't know anything about production details. Someone like "just another engineer" or Robert Cook, or maybe Doggone or myself or Gordo could set this guy on his ear and do reverse spin on him...but I doubt you're going to be able to cram enough to get anything of what you want.

Good luck anyway though. But were it me, I would NOT ever tip my hand. Ambushes are your only hope in a situation like this.

-- R.C. (racambab@mailcity.com), November 17, 1999.

R.C.,

It's already a done deal babe. (Sigh) Where were you earlier when I needed ya?

-- Laura (Ladylogic@aol.com), November 17, 1999.

Laura:

R.C. makes a good point, but I think you should be able to cut through general double-talk, ambiguous answers, etc.

If it gets too technical, restate your question in a different way, if you can; force him/her to refocus, if possible.

Also, consider a surprise question, or a somewhat different angle on a question you've already presented.

Talk to you soon.

-- eve (123@4567.com), November 17, 1999.

Thanks Eve,

Your questions are in capable hands. I can focus like a laser, and I've been called a "pit bull" on occasion. I am going to drill him.

I'd like to take a moment to thank all of you for your help. I appreciate your force-feeding; I can now go into this meeting with confidence.

Eve, I would particularily like to thank you. I have never met a woman with your intellectual capacity before, and I appreciate your support.

-- Laura (Ladylogic46@aol.com), November 17, 1999.

By the way, RC,

I am not wasting my time. I have spend 16 to 18 hours a day for the last 4-6 days (It's a blur now) studying all the materials provided by these good people. I obviously won't be as good as you, but I have strengths you don't: I'm beautiful, I'm professional, and I'm logical.

Hang with me buddy, if anyone can extract answers from this man today, it's me.

-- Laura (Ladylogic46@aol.com), November 17, 1999.

Laura,

I hope all went well with your meeting. I'm very interested to know how it came out, especially with you being the inquisitor.

By the way, if you have a lot to report, especially if it's controversial, you might want to start a new thread above, as this one is going to drop off the list soon.

And thanks for your kind words in your last post to me.

-- eve (123@4567.com), November 18, 1999.