Canada's Greatest Y2K Threats

greenspun.com : LUSENET : Ontario 2000 : One Thread

I believe Canada and England are probably in the lead when it comes to Y2K readiness more than other countries in the world including the United States. We've had sufficient government and corporate cooperation and financial resources allocated earlier than most to solve the problems with a reasonable degree of urgency.

Canada isn't quite out of the woods yet. Per the latest Federal government reports, the health sector, agriculture and transportation are behind schedule and expected to experience problems, but all in all, our Y2K disruptions will be in the 'annoyance' level as compared to core infrastructure shutdowns that will occur in most countries. Yes, in MOST countries.

Canada's greatest Y2K threats are in three areas; economic, transportation and an unprepared-for foreign refugee explosion.

I discount the health care disruptions here mainly because they will be in the billing of services area rather than life-threatening equipment shutdowns. Our socialist health care system insures that medical personnel and hospitals will get paid by our different levels of government eventually. Fexible credit lines can easily be arranged for those experiencing billing problems until they get their money. Of course, the extended health care, life and auto insurance carriers can use Y2K disruptions as just another excuse to delay payments, as usual, to clients but eventually they'll have to settle the claims. Still another annoyance to the public.

Transportation is a real concern. Imports from and Canadian exports to unprepared countries are going to take a heavy hit. Not only will many of our customers have collapsing economies, but the cost of oil to ship products will make it very expensive to do so. That's especially true if there is strict rationing of fuel by governments for priority shipments only.

This will adversely affect our domestic economy first impacting employment figures amongst importers and exporters that will eventually snowball (the domino effect) into the service industries creating a rapid dwindling spiral crippling our GDP.

As if that wasn't enough, there is one area of Y2K-caused disruptions that I've never seen mentioned on a national or regional scale. In your research, observance or participation in community preparedness and contingency planning web sites and discussion forums, you've probably read what people will do to assist or avoid unprepared neighbours. Some will keep quiet about what they have in the way of stores and resources, while others say they will do what they can to help those in need even though, by doing so, they may put their family in jeopardy. It's your individual choice and one you may have to make if you haven't already.

Which brings us to another Y2K threat to Canada. The explosion of the numbers of refugees coming to Canada seeking a safe haven, to escape Y2K disruptions back home. Consider this. Canada may be the most Y2K prepared nation on Earth, nine months to a year ahead of even the top ten countries. Years ahead of late starters who may never finish before their governments and economies crash!

Consider this as well. Along the US\Canadian border, there is the equivalent of the entire Canadian population (30 million people) within one days drive in distance or 1 1\2 tank of gas, from the United States to ANY point along the Canadian border! Anywhere along the border from the Maritimes to British Columbia, 30 million people can drive North into Canada in one day. Tie a string to a pin and at the other end, a pencil, after figuring out how long it should be to measure out eight hundred miles on your map. Push the pin into the map anywhere along the Canadian\ US border and draw a circle with the pencil wherever the eight hundred mile radius goes to.

Not unlike an unprepared neighbour beside your home, we should consider the influx of Americans seeking shelter wherever there are long duration power blackouts or chemical spills, radiation releases, what have you, in the USA. Although it will be officially a government problem in your town, to you and your community, it will be a 'people' problem. Too many people with too few resources.

People will go to where the infra-structure is intact if they can. Canada's infra-structure looks to be able to handle the year-end roll-over (unless the government is lying, which I doubt, for that would be political suicide and bait anarchy).

I wouldn't doubt that many, many thousands of wealthy or crafty refugees across the oceans could beg, borrow, steal or bribe their passage onto ships and planes to Canada after the SHTF in their countries, but they may take awhile to get here. It's the immediate arrival (within a few days) from our Southern neighbours which will tax our government's and communities resources quickly. Our goodwill as well.

There will be a great number of good people making their way to our land, if what our government promises in infra-structure Y2K integrity is true. Law abiding people with money, grateful for our prudence and wishing to contribute to our society.

It's the criminals, insane, drug and alcohol addicted and the totally unprepared people, from the USA and elsewhere, coming here in huge numbers, that I'm concerned about. It's the people who come for our generous social services and health care. We don't have enough police or military to assist a million impoverished people swarming our border let alone five million. Throw in tens of thousands of hardened criminals, addicted or insane, and we've got a situation easily getting out of hand.

Desperate people take desperate measures. They will be desperate and we will be desperate. I don't believe the Liberal government in Ottawa has taken a look at this possibility. After all, if the government can set women free with no jail time who kill their children or put killers on the street after ten short years of a life sentence, it's obvious to me that they cannot confront evil for what it is....evil.

Be prepared for some unwelcome guests.



-- Gary Allan Halonen (njarc@ica.net), November 15, 1999

Answers

Pinch me. I must be dreaming. Read about the United States 'greatest' threat (which came out three days after my above posting).

Click Here

Gary

P.S. Perhaps you'd like to read my other predictions.....

Predictions by Gary Allan Halonen

-- Gary Allan Halonen (njarc@ica.net), November 21, 1999.


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