OK, now I'm scared. I've just graduated from SOGI (Sort Of / Scared Of Getting It) to VNGI (Very Nearly Gets It). I'm posting this link because it's contained inside an article linked to by Rainman's post, and I think it's important enough to warrant it's own top-level post.

This is the advice from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to it's members on why and how they should prepare for Y2K. It's on their site, and it's terrifying. Don't take my word for it, go and read it.

-- Colin MacDonald (roborogerborg@yahoo.com), November 14, 1999

Answers

What's the terrifying part?

Or did you provide the wrong URL?

-- Ron Schwarz (rs@clubvb.com.delete.this), November 14, 1999.

Humm.

Gotta do more shopping.

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), November 14, 1999.

Ron, Colin's URL link is fine.

Question for you Ron: Are we on the same page? Or rather, are we on the same Planet? 'Cause if you don't comprehend the content and widespread consequences of this Federal Reserve of San Francisco document then I have every reason to believe you might live on Mars!

Take care

-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), November 14, 1999.

OK, earthling, you outted me.

Now tell me what's the big deal?

-- Ron Schwarz (rs@clubvb.com.delete.this), November 14, 1999.

It is not unusual for people to have varying interpretations of the same data. For example, I find the idea that the National Guard will be on alert for possible power outages due to Y2K to be scary; other people find it calming, since they feel that any problem will thus be taken care of. Many people find the phrase "Nobody knows what will happen" to be comforting; I find it terrifying.

Different strokes for different folks.

47 days.

Y2K CANNOT BE FIXED!

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.~net), November 14, 1999.

Well, looks like they sorta understand the possibilities but have no idea how people are really going to feel. They are so detached as to be clueless, really. Money is a biz junket to manipulate to them. To wheez po weeples it's our blood, sweat, 'n tears, and wheez barely gots enough to keep body and soul together. Something snatching away what wheez earned is tantamount to threatening our life. And wheez sure ain't the only po or "middle" folks who know the reality of that.

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), November 14, 1999.

I also don't see the terror part here. The long piece simply says to banks, there might be a run for cash on all banks, you have a few (complicated) fiscal options, basically you can limit customer withdrawals, there isn't that much we (FRB) can do for you.

Nothing particularly new here, is there? After reading ths forum for the last several months, at least.

I do not now live on Mars, nor have I ever lived there. (The commute is way too long.)

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), November 14, 1999.

OK, I'll keep it brief and simple. There's some decent advice in here (assume the worst, don't rely on stocks, set up Federal loans early), but there's one very scary and incredible stupid part, and here it is:

"Sell some securities maturing after January 1, 2000 and use the proceeds to buy securities maturing in December of 1999. When securities mature in December 1999, you can hold some or all of the proceeds in overnight funds sold. Or, if you wish, in vault cash. By lining up a sufficient amount of maturing securities, you can avoid the need to sell unmatured securities in potentially roiled market conditions in January 2000."

There's a basic assumption by a lot of people, even doomers, that the banks - indeed the whole financial community - will wake up and work together to minimise the Y2K bump. It's the "Them In Black" mentality.

I've felt for a long time that this is purest moo poo. Banks are just as selfish and predatory as any other business. That's why I think it's criminal for the San Francisco Reserve to put this information out in public. What they are saying is "Our banks will sell 2000 securities and buy 1999 securities". Try and imagine, just for one second, what this kind of free "insider" information could do. This article is talking about large amounts of investment, not piddly little Joe Blow portfolios.

If you held 2000 securities and read this, what would you do? I'll tell you what I'd do, I'd offload them NOW before the market gets flooded. You can always buy them back later when they bottom, right? And while you're at it, best buy some of those juicy 1999 securities before they skyrocket. Sure, this sort of thing happens all the time, that's how markets work, on indicators, rumours and of course, idiotic strategy leaks like this.

But now put that in a Y2K context. If banks or other investors follow this advice, then picture the headlines: "2000 securities plummet! Get-rich-quick 1999 securities rocket! What gives? What do They know?"

Gnnn, my head is throbbing. Try and THINK!

-- Colin MacDonald (roborogerborg@yahoo.com), November 14, 1999.

So Colin, you gonna go out and get some beans now? You still suck.

-- cavscout (don'tcomeknockin@tmyfront.door), November 14, 1999.

Stop reading and GO BUY BEANS!

-- Hatti (klavine@tco.com), November 14, 1999.

Colin (said gently),

Most of us here have experienced a special little stomach-dropping moment in which we each, individually, twigged. Sounds like you've just had yours.

Now go prep.

-- silver ion (ag3@interlog.com), November 14, 1999.

feed colin dog food when he come sto your door starving

-- xox,oxo (xox@oxo.com), November 14, 1999.

Silver Ion is indeed correct. for most there is a brief period of catharsis where you go through an emotional melt down as the picture comes into focus.

-- Dave (aaa@aaa.com), November 15, 1999.