I'm not sure whether this site has been mentioned, but it's loaded with valuable information.

Trend Monitor Online's homepage.

Here is but one excerpt, from a piece simply entitled "Ignorance":

After more than three years of constant but fragmented media reporting, most people are still far from realising the reality of the risks that Y2K presents. The real tragedy of this denial is that it is preventing people from taking the required preventative and contingency actions. This process of denial leading to acting too late has been the case all along, first by computer professionals, then by their managers and now by the government and the public. It is the principal reason why risks are now so great. It is not reassuring to learn that denial is a natural human response to situations which people do not understand, or feel that they can do nothing about. It is not reassuring to learn that denial is a natural human response to situations which people do not understand, or feel that they can do nothing about...

Happy reading!!

-- Steve (hartsman@ticon.net), November 14, 1999

Answers

Oops, the last sentence is repeated in the source. Sorry. Sorry.

-- Steve (hartsman@ticon.net), November 14, 1999.

From "Risks to Economics":

It seems that the threat to the economy is not either from big companies or little companies, but from both. New companies and very small companies, which can become date compliant in a matter of minutes, would seem to have the economic advantage in a post-Y2K world.

The market in unsold stock and assets from bankrupt companies is likely to grow very quickly, too. The economy would be reminiscent of the barter markets in post-Soviet Russia. But unlike the experience in Russia to date, barter currencies would likely be used to enable the smooth, cheap and easy operation of a generalised barter market.

Will the banks, which underpin the global economy, survive? Most likely, some will and some won't. There would be hard currencies, but they are liable to be too scarce, unstable and uncertain in value to be much use. The potential growth of the barter market, where knowledge and skills, as well as goods are traded, is likely to be very significant.

Transport expenses in a post-Y2K economy are likely to be very high, while volume of trade would be very low which could mean potentially very high profits for the shipping companies which survive. The oil and gas industry might also do rather well from sharp price rises, if they can maintain supply. Air transport will be hit doubly hard by rising fuel costs and falling passenger and freight demand.

It must also be noted that the potential economic turmoil brought on by Y2K will hit the global economy at about the same time that the US asset and credit bubble is liable to burst. The combination of the two forces really could mean the end of the global economy as we know it, as the world fragments into a complex of local economies...

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From "Risks to Energy":

If the Russian natural gas pipeline supplying both Eastern and Western Europe is interrupted, as Russian experts say it almost certainly will be, it will be very difficult to start the gas flowing again with an uncertain electricity supply and sub-zero temperatures. Oil stops flowing at freezing temperatures which means that pipelines and refineries are at risk, even if there are relatively short power outages.

In the US, which is far ahead of Russia in its preparations for the energy sector, "major" oil companies are reported adopting a fix on fail (FOF) policy on wells, pipelines and refineries.

Another reported implication is that if the electricity fails, some nuclear plants may have difficulty cooling their cores if they are to be shut down, creating a real danger of accidental melt-downs.

The economic, environmental and social implications of the failure of the Russian gas and oil pipeline network are so enormous - for Europe and the rest of the world - that the necessary resources must be made available on an international level to ensure that:

i. the operation of the Siberian gas pipeline network is made secure, ii. nuclear reactors everywhere have sustainable back up electrical systems which do not depend on national grids, iii. as many alternative local electricity sources are built as possible.

All the countries of Europe and all the people of Europe are at risk of having to deal with the consequences of severe energy shortages and consequent energy price increases.

Although it is not certain that this scenario will come true, even if no remedial action is taken, the seriousness of the multiple risks warrants emergency action now on a "just in case" basis. A huge investment in sustainable energy systems is required, both for deployment around nuclear sites and within communities. The task could be doable in the time remaining if an international crash programme were to be implemented in the next few weeks. It is a question of mobilising people and money to secure the future very quickly. Not only would the short-term problem be solved, but also the implementation of an economical long-term solution could be accomplished at the same time. A first step would be a comprehensive upgrade and support programme for Emergency Diesel Generators worldwide.

Continuing denial by governments and the media of the possible magnitude of the risk to key energy systems is the greatest danger at the moment because it is preventing people and companies from making appropriate contingency preparations...

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Again, there's much more. They do a great job at attempting to "connect the dots".

-- Steve (hartsman@ticon.net), November 14, 1999.

...TPTB will not change their course at this late date. No Prob.!!! Don't worry, be happy. ;-(

-- thesunwillcomeouttomorrow (karlacalif@aol.com), November 14, 1999.

Great post Steve. Here's an excellent quote from Ed Yourdon:

Mr. Wyllie ended his presentation by paraphrasing, Y2K thinker, Ed Yourdan: "If it is impossible to know the risks, decisions must be made on the basis of the stakes".

...(hitting the)...

-- snooze button (alarmclock_2000@yahoo.com), November 14, 1999.