New to the forum? Worried about Y2K? Ever hear of the JoAnne Effect?

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

The JoAnne Effect was supposed to strike throughout the previous year. It was predicted to "create chaos" and be "the wake-up call for the CEO's who have not yet grasped what the programmers have done to them."

It turned out to be more like the snooze button...

People have been fighting over the Y2K issue since it's inception. Some of it has not been nice. There are information technology professionals about that do not believe Y2K is going to have devastating effects on your life. You will find a few here (though this is a christian religious site). They are often derided and called by a name that I personally bear with a particular pride: Polly.

You will also find people (most here, in fact) who disgaree with the Polly scenarios, and believe the events surrounding Y2K will range from serious interruptions to total catastrophy. They are called Doomers.

There is a surprising consensus occuring as the date draws nearer. It is exhibited in several ways. For instance, last year you could separate the Doomers from the Pollys by asking whether or not they believed their power utility would fail where they live. Now, a significant portion of Doomers acknowledge that power will either remain on, or fluctuate in a manageable fashion - as opposed to failing and remaining off for a period measured in days. (See Your prediction please: Do you believe your local electric utility will deliver uninterrupted power through the 991231 - 000101 roll-over?)

There are some important things to consider these last few weeks of 1999:

As is the case in much of life, calmer minds prevail. If you are in a state of panic because of what you have read, you should examine the other side of the issue closely. There are gaps in the logic Doomers applied to reach their conclusions. The few that have revised their position in light of the ever-changing facts have been met with derision. In the end, the machines will respond in ways dictated by the laws of physics and their programme's code - how we as individuals respond is a matter of individual choice.

Patient Regards,
Andy Ray

-- Andy Ray (andyman633@hotmail.com), November 13, 1999

Answers

We all hope Andy"the gambling man"Ray is right.If he's not,there is the potential for much suffering and loss of life.Andy Ray is very good(just like the doomers he decries) at ignoring any thing that does not support his views.

-- zoobie (zoobiezoob@yahoo.com), November 13, 1999.
Moron, read Homer Beanfang's threads. JAE is rearing its head and creating pandemonium many places.

Get your butthead out of your ass and do some research.

-- Andy Ray able to type but not read (no@comprehension.nada), November 13, 1999.

Sorry, Andy Ray, you will have to do a lot better than this if you want to outdo Ken Decker's dissuading of personal preparation. You just are not smart enough anyway, and your silly green, effeminate writing style only makes you look all the more like the clown that you are.

The Jo Anne effect's effect was ALWAYS expected to be minor, and it's only real expected significance was to be that of providing a wake-up call to the fact that a computer glitch involving the year 2000 was real. Like you say, the response was to just hit the snooze button.

The year 2000 itself will potentially affect a lot of things that nobody will be able to ignore. This includes electric power, clean water, municipal sewage systems, telecommunications, just-in-time inventory systems that control food supply. Nobody knows the impact, but having a some Y2K "insurance" at least in the way of stockpiling things that you will use ANYWAY makes a lot of sense. A generator would not be a bad idea, either.

See one of Stan Faryna's 14 DAYS OF PREPARATIONS threads if you are just getting started. And be aware, be very aware, that there are annoying piss-ants on this forum like Andy Ray that have one sole purpose: To prevent YOU from preparing for your family. (Probably because they are afraid that you might go to your bank and withdraw CASH. Really upsets folks like Andy Ray and double-Decker. Things that make you go Hmmmm.)

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.cum), November 13, 1999.
I agree. Many of them are not even Joanne effects, but if they spook the herd all is well. Buy gold.

-- Buy Gold (bb@ee.bb), November 13, 1999.
HEY, ANDY. THE SNOOZE BUTTON IS MY GIG, GET YOUR OWN.

Warmest Regards,

...(hitting the)...

-- snooze button (alarmclock_2000@yahoo.com), November 13, 1999.

snooze_button,

Sincere apologies for trespassing on your intellectual property. ;)

Apologetic Regards,
Andy Ray

-- Andy Ray (andyman633@hotmail.com), November 13, 1999.
Another good suggestion will be to ingore the green divel of Andy Ray. If you have ever seen Steven King's movie "The Stand", Andy reminds me of the trashcan man.

-- Bill (bill@tinfoil.com), November 13, 1999.
I don't think I've missed any of Homer Beanfang's posts, and I have yet to see a single one that has anything to do with JAE whatsoever. This is "pandemonium"? Sheesh. Beanfang's posts are almost entirely reports of problems with new implementations of compliant software. Which are causing trouble now, but won't next year.

Nobody ever claimed that any of those pre-2000 dates would cause extreme problems except Infomagic and Milne, who hardly count since all of their predictions have been wildly wrong without exception. Instead, they were considered good "indicators" of how severe the "real thing" would be. The problem has been, if they really were indicators, they indicate at most trivial problems, since nothing of note ever happened.

As a result, the pessimists have been backing off the "indicator" theory full speed, in favor of the "meaningless" theory. It's easy to learn from history, if you get to rewrite it!

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), November 13, 1999.

You'd do better, dear newbies, to listen to these expert voices from the past few month and to reflect upon the fact, as numerous recent reports have clearly indicated that we have lost the race with time. Some progress has been made in the intervening months, but simply not enough to securely bridge the gap. Get ready NOW while you still can! If you're wrong, you just eat your stored food. If the Pollies are wrong, they eat each other :)...

"If, for example, there is a municipality that is unable to distribute welfare checks, there could be some civil unrest that could come out of that. If, uh, if there was a disruption in the food supply, and food didn't get in, in a uh, distributive kind of way--that it was concentrated in one part of the city, but not in another--that could be a situation that could create some civil unrest...The dire predictions will probably be fulfilled, but on a sporadic basis, place by place. If you're in one of those places, the fact that the, uh, overall system works is not gonna be very comforting to you. But we would be irresponsible if we were to say, There are no problems, everything's under control,' because there's still a lot of work to be done." - Senator Robert Bennett, interviewed on CBS' 60 MINUTES, May 23, 1999.

"We think there will be some disruptions, and we think they will be localized in many cases, uh, if the supply chain works--that's a big if'--if power works, if gas works, if uh, uh--Bell Atlantic works, if people who supply groceries to the inner city work, if pharmaceutical companies make enough pharmaceuticals, if, uh, people should hoard things, all of those are big ifs'..." - Mary Ellen Hanley, Washington D.C.'s Year 2000 Program Manager, interviewed on CBS' 60 MINUTES, May 23, 1999.

"I cannot be optimistic and I am generally concerned about the possibility of power shortages.... Supermarket supplies may be disrupted....It's clear we can't solve the whole problem, so we have to allow some systems to die so mission-critical systems can work.... Pay attention to the things that are vulnerable in your life and make contingency plans.... Don't panic, but don't spend too much time sleeping, either." - Senator Robert Bennett, Chairman of the Senate's Special Committee on the Year 2000 Problem

"On a personal level, [Canadian Y2K guru Peter] de Jager said every household in North America ought to maintain a normal level of sufficiency for any disaster, about two to three weeks of food, supplies and a generator." - from a report in the (U.S.) Evansville Courier And Press on the "Are You Y2K Okay?" seminar sponsored by the Metropolitan Evansville Chamber of Commerce in May, 1999.

"A poll of top Y2K professionals just conducted by CIO magazine, in conjunction with Information Systems Audit and Control Association and Dr. Ed Yardenis Y2K Center, showed that only 8 percent of the organizations surveyed (most with at least 1,000 employees) had completed their Y2K work and almost half were behind schedule. "Were not doing as well as [White House Y2K czar John] Koskinen would like us to believe," says Soquel-based Y2K consultant William Ulrich. Noting that a Cap Gemini study showed that half of the Fortune 500 companies surveyed had fixed only half of their code by January, Ulrich says, "The emphasis now is on contingency planning and crisis management."...[and after that clear warning. we get THIS gem!]...Faced with this kind of uncertainty, many people are now making choices about their careers, finances and lifestyles to protect themselves from Y2K-related negative effects. But they may be putting themselves at greater risk, says Donald MacGregor, a psychologist at Decision Science Research Institute in Eugene, Ore., who has been studying the public perception of Y2K risks under a National Science Foundation grant. "For example, by storing propane or generator fuel, or carrying more money, they may be subjecting themselves to dangers" he says. [Right! It would certainly be a lot safer and less hazardous to starve or freeze to death, or to proffer a credit card when sellers will only accept cash...!] - 'Overreacting to Y2K Could Cause More Harm: With Just Six Months To Go Until Y2K, This Is Not A Time To Be Blasi.' - TECHWEEK, 28th June, 1999.

"Amazingly, some people still think Y2K is a hoax. These people are obviously in deep denial. The number of reported failures are continuing to mount, and these are likely only a fraction of those that have occurred...[At the present time] everything else is working, so [any foreseen Y2K] problems can be addressed quickly and efficiently. There are plenty of resources available to resolve these matters with a minimum of disruption. But what happens if the problems are more widespread? What if they are global and simultaneous? Last fall, the GartnerGroup estimated that 40 percent of all organizations worldwide will experience at least one mission-critical system failure due to Millennium Bug problems. In addition, by their own estimates 22 percent of the Fortune 500-the companies with the most resources to throw at the problem-do not expect to finish work on all of their mission-critical systems by January 1. So far the problems encountered have been minimal. Generally, they have been look-ahead failures that occur when unremediated software attempts to process dates into the next century or roll-forward failures that occur when programmers set the clock ahead and conduct Y2K tests. But these failures are the tip of the iceberg, unless a great deal of work gets done before now and the end of the year. Just imagine a scenario in which there are so many failures occurring at once that we simply do not have the available resources to address all the problems quickly. Add to that the "domino effect" and the cumulative effect of failing systems impairing compliant ones." - 'The Reality of Y2K Failures,' Michael S. Hyatt, WESTERGAARD, July 7, 1999

"Suddenly, those individuals who have insisted that they will be withdrawing all their cash from the bank before the end of the year do not seem quite so misguided. The prospect of the millenium bug eating your savings may be more than just the nightmare of overactive imaginations. At a high-powered millennium meeting in Washington recently, delegates were stunned to hear Henry Kissinger announce that he intended to withdraw all his money from the bank as 2000 nears." - "Headaches Start As Bug Bears Down On Banks, THE TIMES, London, March 20th, 1999.

"...while both government and business have worked hard to correct the Y2K problem, their efforts began late and remain insufficient, and consequently some incalculable level of economic disruption is inevitable...this problem will affect us all individually and collectively in very profound ways. It will indeed impact individual businesses and the global economy. In some cases, lives could even be at stake... [stockpiling] extra food and water in the event of temporary shortages may also be advisable...The international situation will be more disturbing. Those who suggest that it will be nothing more than a bump in the road' are simply misinformed...[Y2K is] one of the most serious and potentially devastating events this nation has ever encountered. It deserves our top priority." - U.S. Senate Year 2000 Study, February, 1999.

[Newbies are cordially invited to read the huge collection of similar exerpts and quotes on Y2K on the 'New World Order Intelligence Update' Y2K QUOTES page]

-- John Whitley (jwhitley@inforamp.net), November 13, 1999.

Bold off.

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), November 13, 1999.
One of the best overall threads on this forum about what the Jo Anne Effect is and what it is not can be read here:

"Significance of States Fiscal Start"

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=00122f

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), November 13, 1999.

Also see this thread:

"For the record: Your July 1st predictions, please"

"a href=" http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000wgU"> http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000wgU

Comments by Ed Yourdon about the Jo Anne Effect:

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000f20

[snip]

Well, we know that it won't have any impact on embedded systems -- so we're not going to see any failures of process control systems, refineries, utilities, or things of that sort.

It also means that we're not going to see problems in PC BIOS chips or non-compliant PC operating systems.

The problems will exist in application programs that are aware of, and make use of, the end-date of the fiscal year, i.e., March 31, 2000. Thus, we're almost certainly talking about financial systems, tax systems, etc. It's likely to have the greatest impact on report- writing programs that spew out spreadsheet-looking reports with rows and columns of numbers, showing budget figures for all 12 months of the fiscal year.

Several people have argued that we probably won't see any problems in the day-to-day transaction-processing systems, e.g., the systems that process daily receipts and daily disbursements of funds. However, if there are any logic-checks that ask questions like, "Is this disbursement legitimate within the context of a full fiscal year?", THAT could cause problems.

As with most other aspects of Y2K, the bottom line is that we really don't know where and how the problems will hit. What's fairly obvious, given the experience from the Euro rollover, is that any minor or modest problems will be hidden pretty well within the bureaucracy. However, if it causes something comparable to the NJ food-stamp problem (yes, yes, I know that the officials have now described that problem as a non-Y2K problem), then it will be hard to cover up. If a hundred thousand retired civil service workers don't get their monthly pension check, you'll definitely see it on the evening news program.

It will be interesting to see how it turns out...

Ed

-- Ed Yourdon (ed@yourdon.com), March 28, 1999.

[snip]

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), November 13, 1999.

Linkmeister will help you find any article that supports catastrophy on this, or most any other site.

Here is another quote, by the person who started this forum:
"On January 1, 1999 they will experience many more, and it will be much more difficult to sweep them under the rug. On April 1, 1999 we will all watch anxiously as the governments of Japan and Canada, as well as the state of New York, begin their 1999-2000 fiscal year; at that moment, the speculation about Y2K will end, and we will have tangible evidence of whether governmental computer systems work or not."-- Ed Yourdon

"... I believe we'll start seeing [disruptions] by this summer, and I believe they'll continue for at least a year. As many people are now aware, 46 states (along with Australia and New Zealand) will begin their 1999-2000 fiscal year on July 1, 1999; New York (and Canada) will already have gone through their Y2K fiscal rollover on April 1, and the remaining three states begin their new fiscal year on August 1, September 1, and October 1. We also have the GPS rollover problem to look forward to on August 22nd, as well as the Federal government's new fiscal year on October 1st.

There is, of course, some finite probability that all of these rollover events will occur without any problems; but there's also a finite probability that pigs will learn to fly."--Ed Yourdon

This last part helped to lauch another forum you may be interested in, called Debunking Y2K. If you have a sense of humor, you may enjoy Stephen Poole's New and Improved Y2K Page.

Just a few more links...

Patient Regards,
Andy Ray

-- Andy Ray (andyman633@hotmail.com), November 13, 1999.
I'm beginning to think that this Andy Ray idiot may be a plant from Luhmen's Foods.

-- a (a@a.a), November 13, 1999.
Ah yes. The invisible JAE. I too have seen very little indication that it's having an effect, notwithstanding recent statements by the Garter Group. While I have not yet given up on personal preparations for general pandemonium, the lack of JAE certainly makes me pause and wonder whether it is prudent (from time to time). At this time I am assuming that JAE problems will have less impact than post CDC problems.

Again, I certainly hope you are correct and will be at liberty to laugh at us in 2000. This is really a kind of gamble. The stakes are high and the risks are uncertain (to me at least--probably not to you), and so it is IMO wise to bet conservatively on the side of caution.

-- coprolith (coprolith@fakemail.com), November 13, 1999.

Andy Ray, you mentioned over on double-Decker's "shun" thread that you have gotten numerous e-mails as a result of this thread. You better check where they are coming from, dude, I suspect it's from Porky and the gang over in Cellblock D. And before you get all bubbly and giggly like you usually do, remember that they only want you for your body.

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.cum), November 13, 1999.
All --

One point which is often overlooked in discussing things like the JAE is the fact that we are still in *current year*, which hasn't got a problem. It is possible to locally forestall things like the JAE by simply artificially imposing 12/31/99 as the 'end of fiscal year', regardless of what it was supposed to be. Granted, this is a manual operation, but it doesn't require a whole lot of technical expertise. I remain convinced that there has been a whole lot more of this going on than has made it's way to the public. After all, from the viewpoint of those who have suffered such casualties, it is purely local, easily overcome, and somewhat embarassing. So why tell anyone.

Unfortunately, one of the things the JAE should have bought us was 'higher awareness' of the seriousness of the problem. But the JAE is so easily overcome, relatively speaking, that it may have actually contributed to corporate lethargy.

-- just another (another@engineer.com), November 13, 1999.

Though I completely understand the email I received stating that [anonymous] will no longer allow their daughter to utilise the home computer for internet access alone, due to what they deemed an "inappropriate remark from someone called King of Spain at the Y2K bulletin board;" I wish to remind new visitors to this forum that most doomers are courteous and polite.

I have been smililarly victimised by disagreeable doomers. On occassion, I have even been impersonated - which I take as flattery (imitation being the highest form thereof); though the people impersonating me have said terrible things to others in my name.

I would ask that you not, as the person quoted above, base your opinions upon the actions of one or two "misled" individuals. I, being a Polly, disagree with most of the people here; but I have found most to be civilised in their discourse with me - here and in private.

Patient Regards,
Andy Ray

-- Andy Ray (andyman633@hotmail.com), November 13, 1999.
We does our best, but you try us sorely, Andy Ray. And the green calligraphy still sucks, Andy Ray.

-- Sh (squirrel@hunter.com), November 13, 1999.
Linkmeister will help you find any article that supports catastrophy on this, or most any other site.

Andy Ray,

I'm a Y2K "middle-grounder"...

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001fIt

When I come across mainstream articles or government documents that I think might be helpful to businesses or individuals that are assessing Y2K risk and are making fallback contingency plans, I do post them here. I don't know how Y2K is going to turn out, although I'm certain that some of its effects will be felt more more than three days. I don't expect "catastrophe" for a majority of people in the U.S. next year...but it doesn't surprise me that you believe I do, because you're one of the few people I know who expects Y2K to improve the economy next year:

"predictions"

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=0012gt

You're more optimistic about Y2K than even John Koskinen:

http://www.capitolalert.com/news/old/capalert01_19990927.html

Here's an article that newcomers should read:

http://www.accessatlanta.com/partners/ajc/reports/y2k/dos.html

[snip]

[The Atlanta Journal-Constitution: 9.19.99]

Be prepared: A list of do's

By Marilyn Geewax

Atlanta Journal-Constitution Staff Writer

Washington -- Don't panic, but get prepared. While the nation's basic infrastructure will function after Jan. 1, authorities say the Y2K computer bug is sure to cause some problems. The power could go out in one community, while the water system falters in another and traffic lights malfunction in still another. Because no one can say with certainty which systems might fail, "the basic message we are giving people is ... be prepared for an emergency," said Red Cross spokeswoman Leslie Credit. Start your preparations by figuring out who is going to be in your household between Dec. 31 and mid-January, and what each person's special needs will be. Then lay out a strategy for making sure everyone can stay hydrated, healthy and warm for up to two weeks. These are among the recommendations being made by mainstream agencies:

---------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------

WATER

THE POTENTIAL PROBLEM:

Local providers typically keep water flowing by using pumps and valves controlled by microprocessors and chips. Computers also regulate various aspects of water treatment, such as the addition of chlorine. In addition, Y2K-related power outages could cause a loss of heat that would allow pipes to freeze and burst.

THE SOLUTION:

[snip]

Another good source of information for newcomers trying to assess Y2K risk is the Executive Summary of Senate Y2K committe's 100 Day Report:

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001Rwk

http://www.senate.gov/~y2k/documents/100dayrpt/exec_sum_100days.pdf

The 100 Day Report:

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001SFC

http://www.senate.gov/~y2k/documents/100dayrpt/

Web site of the Senate Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem:

http://www.senate.gov/~y2k/

Emergency Food and Water Supplies (FEMA):

http://www.fema.gov/library/emfdwtr.htm

[snip]

Emergency Food and Water Supplies

If an earthquake, hurricane, winter storm or other disaster ever strikes your community, you might not have access to food, water and electricity for days, or even weeks. By taking a little time now to store emergency food and water supplies, you can provide for your entire family.

This brochure was developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency's Community and Family Preparedness Programs which provides information to help families prepare for all types of disasters.

WATER: THE ABSOLUTE NECESSITY

Stocking water reserves and learning how to purify contaminated water should be among your top priorities in preparing for an emergency. You should store at least a two-week supply of water for each member of your family.

[snip]



-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), November 13, 1999.

Blockquote off.

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), November 13, 1999.

Sh,

I tried another colour once, but no one liked it. I'll stick to teal for now.


Linkmeister,

You seem to respond only to requests for links that support only one side of the argument. I know I repeatedly sought a link to an old thread, and have yet to see it posted. Oh well.

Regardless, I like your style. And, I believe a new middle ground is being forged; wherein moderate doomers and pollys share the sentiment that things will happen, but that they will not mean the end of civilisation as we know it.

Thanks for that link, at least. ;)

Patient Regards,
Andy Ray

-- Andy Ray (andyman633@hotmail.com), November 13, 1999.
The only thing I can say about Andy Ray is that he is British

colour civilised

etc

For the record, I have prepared extensively and do NOT want anything bad to happen at ALL. What do you call ME? Certainly not a doomer. If you did, you would be calling me a doomer just because I have invested in some food and water insurance. Making everyone who has any type of insurance a doomer. Would you call me a "preparer"? Or how bout Little Miss ANT?

Wipe on, wipe off, glasshopper

-- preparing (preparing@home.com), November 14, 1999.

*Sigh*

"AndyRay" what brought you out of the wordwork again?

Just "curious."

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), November 14, 1999.

Andy Ray

You would get more respect if you used a name that exuded a little more testrosterone.

BTW, Bill, I must take exception with the suggestion that andyray is much like my hero, Trashy, in The Stand. After all, who set off the bomb that offed Randell Flagg.

-- aboynamedsue (xxx@yyy.latenite), November 14, 1999.

OH GAWD, WHAT HAVE I DONE???

Andy Ray, you mean because of an INAPPROPRIATE REMARK that I made, a little girl somewhere out there in Internet Land will not be able to bring to the attention of her family the information that they need to prepare for Y2K? Because, instead, they are directly conversing with YOU???!!!!

Which means, if Y2K turns out to be bad, that they will not be prepared. They will probably starve to death. And their bones will be carried away by water rats.

I should never, never have called you a piss-ant, Andy Ray. I should have called you a lying, bad troll that lives under a bridge, and has a green crayon. An ugly troll that poses as a man (well, maybe; probably looks, dresses and acts like the aunt that never married) and tries to make little boys and girls feel bad if they try to tell Mommy and Daddy about Y2K. And even makes up bad stories about good Kings. Bad troll!!! Bad!!!!!

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.cum), November 14, 1999.
About

This forum is intended for people who are concerned about the impact of the Y2000 problem on their personal lives, and who want to discuss various fallback contingency plans with other like-minded people.

-- About (about@about.about), November 14, 1999.

Your Majesty - You make me ROTFALMAO.

-- lol (karlacalif@aol.com), November 14, 1999.
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