My electric co-op says I'm screwed.

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

In the November/December 1999 issue of their organ ("Country Lines"), page 15, "Y2K Update: Co-op preparations nearly finished", I see some interesting things.

First, they've invented a whole new term of obfuscation.

Not satisfied to rely on the ubiquitous "Y2K Ready" meaningless buzzfraze, they've come up with Something Completely Different:

"The project's most important phase -- making sure all systems that directly affect the flow of electricity to customers are 'mission critical' ready -- was completed earlier this summer."

Yup, "'Mission critical' ready". Whatever the hell *that* means.

They then list *their* "mission critical systems (note my emphasis on the word "their" -- it will shortly be clear why I emphasised it):

* Electric distribution control equipment

* Commmunications (telephone, radio, wide-area computer network)

* Customer information

* Suppliers of critical goods and services

Sounds impressive, until you ponder that the one thing it doesn't mention is *electricity*!

Then, marching bravely into the fluff, we find something quietly slipped into the Don't Worry article:

"Great Lake Energy's power supplier, Cadillac-based Wolverine Power Supply Cooperative, is also working to ensure that the Co-op will continue to receive a reliable supply of power."

Translation: "They're not done, and we're not about to tell you *how* far from complete they are. Instead, we'll quickly move along and reiterate that of our *NON-CRITICAL* systems -- our customer billing system is 95% ready, our 'supplier of materials and services' readiness is 90%, our PC software is 90% ready, our office equipment is 95% ready, and our 'other systems and facilities such as heating and cooling, fire suppression system, and other non-critical equipment within GLE's buildings' is 90% ready."

Isn't that special? All those nice round numbers -- everything either 90 or 95 percent "ready" -- never anything like 92%, 96.3% -- never anything without that "fished out of our arses" smell -- and only fifty odd days to go.

They drone on and on, wrapping up with this chuckler:

"Customers should always be prepared for outages, regardless of how they're caused, that could interrupt the delivery of power, say GLE officials.

"Customers should not expect potential power failures due to Y2K to be any more serious than outages they've already experienced, officials say."

Yes, kids, that's right: when your power goes out, it won't go any lower than 0 volts. Sheesh...

If you're in GLE's service area (a large part of western MI), and you haven't tossed your new issue of their rag, *do* turn to page 15 for a real stomach-wrencher.

Remember, the key point in the article is that *their* supplier of electricity is NOT ready!

-- Ron Schwarz (rs@clubvb.com.delete.this), November 13, 1999

Answers

Telling.

And I love your well-turned phrase: "Then, marching bravely into the fluff". Magnificent wordsmithing.

-- Donna (moment@pacbell.net), November 13, 1999.


Their web page is pretty funny too...

""We give our customers a heads-up every storm season and that what we are telling them about Y2K. They might give some thought about how they are going to heat their home, or a generator or perhaps a gas furnace that doesn't require electricity to operate, but the most important rule concerning Y2K is -- don't panic," he said.

"Much of the rhetoric about Y2K is from consultants who are benefiting financially from this," Hance said.

"Customers can research this problem on the Internet, although some sites are really quite bad, or they can calls us with questions and concerns," Berry said."

Definitely a DGI! You're right Ron, you are screwed!

Will Jack Frost be nipping at your nose?

-- Hawk (flyin@high.again), November 13, 1999.


Their y2k statement hasn't been updated since January. Cute.

-- Ron Schwarz (rs@clubvb.com.delete.this), November 13, 1999.

Ron, when you wrote

"They then list *their* "mission critical systems (note my emphasis on the word "their" -- it will shortly be clear why I emphasised it):

* Electric distribution control equipment

* Commmunications (telephone, radio, wide-area computer network)

* Customer information

* Suppliers of critical goods and services

Sounds impressive, until you ponder that the one thing it doesn't mention is *electricity*!" You appear to missed the fact that electricty is already, always has been, and always will be Y2K compliant. What may not be Y2k ready is the control equipment which, in this case, your supplier has already stated is ready.

Malcolm

-- Malcolm Taylor (taylorm@es.co.nz), November 13, 1999.


This article is from March 5, 1999

"Great Lakes Energy ready for Y2K"

""(Our suppliers) assure us that they are completely Y2K-compliant by the end of June," Berry explained. "And we will also be ready by June 1."

"We're staying on top of this, but the Y2K problem is at the point of becoming a dangerous myth," said Bob Hance, GLE's CEO. "People can go overboard with this."

"The utilities are not going to allow something like this to shut us down," Berry said. "We feel comfortable that they'll be OK. We're confident that by June 1 we'll be ready.""

Now it is November and neither of them are yet compliant!

Hey Ron, don't read any of those BAAAAAAD web sites (they might tell you the truth!), just call them if you have any questions! Bwaahaaahaahaa!

-- Hawk (flyin@high.again), November 13, 1999.



Wow, you've got a rural electric co-op that actually says something in it's monthly rag about Y2K! Out here in the midwest, I get juiced by Cherry-Todd Electric in South Dakota. Last month, the manager in his monthly column said he was TIRED of answering questions about Y2K! To my knowledge, he has said almost nothing about the subject, at least in his column, other that a short blurb several months ago about them working on their office computers (so we could still pay our bills).

Go back to sleep, and read your meters on time, you idiots!

Ya, rural co-ops seem to be asleep at the wheel. Glad I have my hand pump well, wood stove, and propane lights.

jw

jw

-- J Werner (jwerner15@hotmail.com), November 13, 1999.


Malcolm - Hi! It's Becky with the refrigerator question. Thanks for the answer.

I think what he was saying is that his co-op only distributes electricity, they buy it from a source that is not compliant.

Is this what you're saying, Ron?

-- Becky (rmbolte@wvadventures.net), November 13, 1999.


Details... details.

Diane, fluff sorter 2 (most here are)

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), November 13, 1999.


Have you a lap top with batteries so you'll be able to check information on the net? I think you can skip the idea of leaping on the net with a desktop. Course, it is reassuring to know the power loss won't go beyond 0 watts.

[coughing in social discomfort]Have you thought about making a whirlwind move?

-- Paula (chowbabe@pacbell.net), November 13, 1999.


"Yes, kids, that's right: when your power goes out, it won't go any lower than 0 volts. Sheesh..."

Not lower than 0 volts...

That's a great phrase. Put a voltmeter on it if you hear "That Great Sucking Sound." Maybe they will figure out how to get it below 0 by January.

-- snooze button (alarmclock_2000@yahoo.com), November 13, 1999.



Bingo, Becky.

I guess he didn't read my emphasis on the word "their", nor pick up on the obvious expansion on it later on.

They produce *NO* electricity. Period. They merely *distribute* it, and *their* supplier is apparently *NOT* "ready".

They spin, spin, spin *their* "readiness" of their various and sundry NON-GENERATION facilities, and *VERY* quietly slip in the tidbit about the *supplier*.

I would be *very* surprised if that article was not vetted (if not honed, or even written by) their "risk management" department (AKA "legal").

It's rife with portent for a future "plausible deniability" statement, now that we live in The Age of Clintonics. "If you go back and read our exact words, you'll see that we never said that our supplier was compliant, ready, or in any way even *close* to being able to deliver electricity. So it's not like we tried to *deceive* you!"

-- Ron Schwarz (rs@clubvb.com.delete.this), November 13, 1999.


Making a whirlwind move? You mean *from* here? Heck, we just moved *to* here!

-- Ron Schwarz (rs@clubvb.com.delete.this), November 13, 1999.

Gotta love this logic. Kinda like your doctor can't guarantee you won't die in an accident today, so you conclude that your doctor will kill you, guaranteed. Didn't he just *say* that? How can anyone be so stupid not to understand that you have a killer doctor out to get you?

Sorry, dummies. Failure to guarantee power is NOT the same thing as a guarantee of a power failure! I know these *sound* pretty similar, and actually require *thinking* to distinguish. Which is in damn short supply around here.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), November 13, 1999.


Hey, moron -- what part of NOT READY can't you understand?

Oh, that's right: the words.

-- Ron Schwarz (rs@clubvb.com.delete.this), November 13, 1999.


Just 25 Federal Days 'till The END!

Temperatures have been running 10-12 above average here in Central Arizona...guess there are advantages to living in the Desert.

Ron, do whatever it takes to have you and yours come through this fiasco alive and healthy. And best wishes!



-- K. Stevens (kstevens@ It's ALL going away in January.com), November 13, 1999.



Hey Flint,

What do you think about a news report dated March 5 with a headline that says "we're ready", and then in the text itself it says we hope we'll be ready by June 1?

Would you give these people a lot of credibility, especially since it is now mid-November and they are still not ready?

No one is saying that the power will definitely not work, but when the company itself says that you should think about getting a generator, does that mean anything to you, or are you brain dead?

This company is clearly VERY uncertain that they will be able to function, and I sure as hell wouldn't count on it, would you?

-- Hawk (flyin@high.again), November 13, 1999.


Thanks. We've got wood, fuel oil, and a genset to help out, if we can juggle the fuel and maintenance, we'll be OK. I'm not real happy about that hand-washing exercise disguised as a "nearly finished" article. Halfway through November is *not* the time to be "nearly finished", *especially* when it doesn't even *address* the actual electrical supply, other than, of course, to let on that it's not ready.

To Flynt and the other trolls: when they tell you they're "working" on it, it means they ain't *done*. Call Sears to see if they have a clue sale.

-- Ron Schwarz (rs@clubvb.com.delete.this), November 13, 1999.


Hawk:

No, I never count on the power not going out. It does go out sometimes, and the threat of y2k-induced outages cannot be entirely dismissed.

But I didn't see anything about 'probably' in the title of this thread, or the original post. It sounds like an assurance that Ron Schwartz is screwed, and his co-op says so. Read the fine print, however, and all they say is they have some work left to do (billing system?), but don't consider a power outage to be more likely than normal.

Maybe Ron Schwarts likes to get screwed? Like everything, that all depends, right?

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), November 13, 1999.


Flint,

I can't speak for what Ron meant by that, but if my power company suggested that I buy a generator, I would feel screwed, whether or not I ended up needing to use it. After paying our money to these organizations for our entire lifetimes, now they are basically saying "you're on your own", and literally leaving us out in the cold.

-- Hawk (flyin@high.again), November 13, 1999.


Hawk:

I agree I'd be pretty damn upset too if my utility recommended I go buy a generator. But after several careful rereadings of this, I find no mention of a generator at all. In fact, I have yet to see such a recommendation by *any* utility to their customers.

Surely you aren't, like, *making up* facts to support your position?

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), November 13, 1999.


I see Flynt is quite the bksie-boy du jour.

"But I didn't see anything about 'probably' in the title of this thread, or the original post. It sounds like an assurance that Ron Schwartz is screwed, and his co-op says so. Read the fine print, however, and all they say is they have some work left to do (billing system?), but don't consider a power outage to be more likely than normal."

Nice attempt at reframing the discussion away from the main point -- that being that the entire article focuses on the co-op being *almost* ready with everything -- everything *except* for *electricity*, which they do NOT produce. And, the "information" (if I may be so loose as to apply the word) they provided on the actual provider was so artfully worded as to be laughable.

Do you keep a "RESERVED" sign hanging under your bridge?

-- Ron Schwarz (rs@clubvb.com.delete.this), November 14, 1999.


From http://www.pioneergroup.net/news/y2k3599.html :

One of the GLE group of companies, Electric Services Coop, is selling generators like "hotcakes."

"Our customers are doing what they feel is necessary and they are being very reasonable. No uproar or threats -- they are just curious," Berry explained.

"We are suggesting what we have suggested to our customers for years. We suggest they have a 'storm box' with candles, matches, fresh flashlight batteries, a battery-powered radio, some canned food, manual can opener and some bottled water," Berry said.

This isn't unusual advice from the utility.

"We give our customers a heads-up every storm season and that what we are telling them about Y2K. They might give some thought about how they are going to heat their home, or a generator or perhaps a gas furnace that doesn't require electricity to operate, but the most important rule concerning Y2K is -- don't panic," he said.



-- Ron Schwarz (rs@clubvb.com.delete.this), November 14, 1999.

Well Ron, I'm going to take the liberty of reposting some of that info in bold since our friend Flint seems to be going blind. If he could get out of his own head for a little while he might be able to see what is going on around him!

Flint,

Now I think I understand why you are always saying that all of the articles we post don't mean anything to you... BECAUSE YOU DON'T READ THEM!!

You missed it in BOLD near the top of this thread, you missed the link to the article directly under that, and you probably won't see what Ron has just posted again, so I'll give you one more shot at it:

March 5 Headline: "Great Lakes Energy ready for Y2K"

"They might give some thought about how they are going to heat their home, or a generator or perhaps a gas furnace that doesn't require electricity to operate, but the most important rule concerning Y2K is -- don't panic,"

-- Hawk (flyin@high.again), November 14, 1999.


Hawk and Ron:

OK, let's reduce the adrenaline level a bit. You have a co-op which generates no electricity. Electricity doesn't care about dates in any case. They have been working on everything they actually do. They haven't finished. They are concerned about their supplier, which is always a concern. If their supplier can't supply, they can't distribute. You should be prepared for a power outage in that case. Sounds reasonable.

Will you have power problems if their supplier is OK but they can't get the electricity to you? They claim otherwise. They explicitly say that their functional systems were completed last summer -- everything required to get the power from their supplier to you is now ready.

You do not seem to be making any attempt to assess the probability of a power failure due to a failure in their (not quite complete) billing system, office equipment, sprinkler system and other systems in their office building, etc. None of these things is directly involved in providing you with power. And all of them are described as nearly (but not quite) complete in any case.

At this point, what you do is:

1) Declare that the co-op says you're screwed, on general principles.

2) Dismiss the completed power-related work on the grounds that you don't know what it means, as though your own ignorance will affect their power systems.

3) Dismiss the details on what remains to be done as "fluff", apparently because you don't want to hear it.

4) Declare that *their* supplier isn't ready, although nobody said that.

5) Interpret the standard disclaimer that power can never be guaranteed as an admission that y2k will cause a power failure.

If you stop ranting long enough to think about this carefully, you'll perhaps understand that your conclusions are determining your interpretation. I strongly suspect that if they had claimed total, complete, independently verified compliance with everything, you'd dismiss it as spin, or whatever it took to defend your opinion against the onslaught of the facts.

But you might want to keep us posted, come rollover, as to the actual power outages you experience. I don't think you'll encounter any problems doing so.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), November 14, 1999.


"4) Declare that *their* supplier isn't ready, although nobody said that."

They declared that their supplier isn't ready.

True, they applied reverse clintonix to it, but what else could you expect them to do?

They gave 500 pounds of "The truck has new tires" Good News, and one ounce of "They're trying to find a way to fill the gas tank" Bad News.

-- Ron Schwarz (rs@clubvb.com.delete.this), November 14, 1999.


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