Stan,

Sorry if my original response got lost in an extended verbal slugfest.

I have been an advocate of "preparation," but define the word somewhat differently than most forum pessimists. I have recommended mostly financial preparations like debt reduction. Extreme pessimists have suggested emptying retirement savings and running credit cards to limit to finance "preparations." Personally, I think the best preparation for a post-Y2K economic downturn is setting one's financial house in order.

As you must have read in the Ulrich "scenario," food shortages were primarily impacting the poor. As I have said many times on this forum, the effects of Y2K will be felt harder among the poor, elderly, etc. In my conversation with Mr. Ulrich, we discussed the risk for those people who depend on bio-medical devices or life- sustaining medicines. Preparation for one "at risk," must be considered from a different perspective.

Mr. Ulrich agreed that the primary impact of Y2K will be economic. The "preps" I suggest do not ignore the possibility of disruptions in basic services. On the contrary, I think modest "nonfinancial" preparations are wise. If needed, I'll dig up my old post where I recommended 7 days of water, 30 days of food etc.

On the other hand, I have argued that if we consider a scenario where one will need a year's supply of food... survival may come down to the ability to hide successfully or defend one's food supply. Well, Stan, you know where I stand on fixed position defense. In my opinion, it would be a fool's errand to defend a faux Y2K stronghold.

While wrong about most matters, Will Continue's idea to hide in a cave has some merits... if one is concerned only about personal survival. In my opinion, it would take considerable time and money to develop a hiding place so secure as to remain undetected for an extended period of time. Against this "cost," I weigh the risk. For me, it is not worth it to stock a hidden bunker... and hiding just happens to rub me the wrong way.

You see, Stan, I plan to stay debt-free and liquid during the anticipated downturn. Even if we drop into a depression, I think cash will be worth having. If it gets worse than a depression, I'm not sure your "preps" will be of great utility... unless you have a hideaway.

I do know some people in an "at risk" category including a friend who is paralyzed from the neck down. While the I think Y2K will be chronic, rather than acute, I have spoken to "at risk" folks I know about ensuring they fill prescriptions early, etc. You may consider this woefully inadequate... or it may make me seem more pessimistic than I have seemed in the past. Remember, Stan, even the Grinch had a heart originally. (laughter)

http://www.systemtransformation.com/artaftersho.htm

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), November 12, 1999

Answers

Year 2000 Aftershock
http://www. systemtransformation.com/artaftersho.htm

Red,

It seems to me that Ulrich's scenario is heading into that zone where one year of food for every man, woman, and child (and let's not forget the pets!) in his imaginary post Y2K neighborhood is not just a good idea. A well with a hand pump wouldn't be just for rustic effect. Now the poor in Ulrich's imaginary world are worse off for sure: they don't have stored food. But I imagine Ulrich's emphasis on canned food and dried (I read this as dehydrated or freeze-dried) as a good thing, makes him a doomer by all accounts. Now, Ulrich may want to go the "Hamasaki way" (he certainly takes a pot shot at survivalists in his seemingly arbitrary comment about isolationists), but you can talk to most any pessimists here about how indifferent and disinterested their neighbors and community is about Y2K. Yes, there are inconsistencies in Ulrich's scenario; some things don't match up to other things. If a company only has a few weeks of imported goods and has no work arounds, it's strange that the same business could somehow crawl as far as late spring-- which is about the time one might judge the neighborhood garden project to be doing well. Still, if Ulrich is an optimist, than I am an optimist. As is Big Dog and most of the so-called pessimists here.

We all know that I don't have anything close to a half year of stored food (I think I have pointed this out to you more than once). The point is that a year of stored food (as long as conditions are not such that you depend upon it exclusively for your sustenance a la mad Max) may be as good as cash-- Y2K or not. Myself, I had previously decided that if we needed more than three months of stored food and one month of stored water, then the suburb in which we live would not be the best location to ride out what I might imagine to be the wake of a brutish depression and a potential cue for Tina Turner to do a second show in the Thunderdome. So we don't really need to further debate the finer points of the social advantages and tactical disadvantages of a fixed position; I'm still here. I think that I am still here by choice. (laughing) But it is time to move beyond your essay on the fixed position (unless you have improvements). I'm interested in what seems to be a new formula for non-financial preps: your 30 days of food and 7 days of water to be specific. Water being the more essential life-need, I'd like to know why you emphasize more food than water-- especially if you aren't recommending a water filter with those preps.

If I remember correctly, you once said that if more preps were needed than recommended by the White House, you would be the first to shout it from the tree tops, put it on paper, and get the word out. I may not remember what you said correctly. But if you did say it, it is about time you saddled up and took the warning to the streets. If you didn't say it, I'd like to know if you are making preparations not just for you, but also for your neighbors. Do they get it? Have you discussed what your recession and temporary shortages and inconveniences could mean to them if Y2K is more than a bump in the road? Do they look at you funny when you mention that 30 days of food and 7 days of water is a good idea? (laughing) How exactly do you plan you to rally your neighborhood when the chips are down for weeks to months. These are innocent enough questions this time around-- it's not like I am wondering out loud if you are a predator, rapist, or child molester. Poo poo the bunker mentality and sneer at someone's hidey hole in a cave,  but tell me how you got a neighborhood, a community, a town, or city to truly prepare for risks as obscure and complex as those seemingly posed by Y2K-- even if they could somehow remain only economic risks.

Yes. By your own admission, you have that particular luxury to be debt free and liquid as your Y2K action plan. This is likely to be the result of many years of effort and money management. If I understood you right, you have the kind of gear that was made for Denali in winter. You also have land, tools, guns, and ammunition. Wasn't it you that mentioned something about the merits of the 30.06 and AL15 (or whatever)? (laughing) For those that lack such gear, assets, and property... when they learned about Y2K (a year ago or yesterday), getting some gear may be the better decison than trying to get debt free or getting liquid. Of course, one should be reasonable when making a budget for such exceptions. Would you argue with my assessment? And if I remember correctly, you had once promised to post some gear and prep ideas in the TB2000 preparation discussion forum. But back to the point: Yes, I think you are taking Y2K more seriously. Of course, I don't expect you to become a card carrying doomer as much as you expect that I would consider hanging out with the wildlife at debunky. Still, the nuanced positions which you so admire are not only to be found among the optimists, but also among the pessimists.

Sincerely,
Stan Faryna

Got 14 days of preps? If not, get started now. Click here.

Click here and check out the TB2000 preparation forum.

-- Stan Faryna (faryna@groupmail.com), November 12, 1999.

Stan: It appears that Decker vacated the scene on your other thread...here's a few of the ending posts. Would you agree to "shun" this twerp? Would you be able to do so? It would be hard-he's so ripe for ridicule. Give it a try Stan; we'd all be better off.

-- catfish joe (joe6pack@bottomdweller.com), November 12, 1999.

Stan: It appears that Decker vacated the scene on your other thread...here's a few of the ending posts. Would you agree to "shun" this twerp? Would you be able to do so? It would be hard-he's so ripe for ridicule. Give it a try Stan; we'd all be better off.

Hey!!!! We all know that little kenny decker is a snot-nosed, condescending, arrogant,hateful yuppie twit that is childless, clueless, and without empathy....He has no clue as to the thoughts, dreams, and concerns of the majority of americans. He really thinks that he will be just fine(as long as his money holds out!!!) I have an idea: I've been reading this forum for about 2 years now. It is truly about time that kenny decker is "shunned" in all ways. What do you say gang?????::: No comments to his snide posts(even if directed at you!!!!) and no response to his always hateful remarks regarding someone else's post. When you attack Old Git and Big Dog, as he recently did, there's no redemption in my book. Eat shit and die Decker-you deserve what you will be getting.

-- catfish joe (joe6pack@bottomdweller.com), November 12, 1999.

And Decker doesn't have thick and slimy gobs of chin-anchored spittle swaying in the fetid wind of his evil verbiage, Flint? Spidey, Invar and others have described Decker with unerring accuracy. There is no other troll on this forum who so arouses (and so richly deserves) the volume and depth of utter contempt as this filthy-hearted murky shadow of a human being named Decker. You're in second place, of course, Flint.

-- Not a fan (of@either.of.you), November 12, 1999.

Well, well...I leave just for a few hours and everything is in flames when I get back. I must agree that clearly Decker is a legend in his own mind. I also agree that he should be shunned in entirety. He did speak so disrespectfully to Old Git. In fact I believe he lied: by saying that he never visited the Prep forum. How could he possibly say that her prep tips resembled Carla Emery's book unless he was "visiting" the prep forum to see what Old Git had posted; she doesn't (as a rule) post prep tips here anymore. More to the point-what the hell difference does it make if her tips were from Carla's book? They were all helpful, and that is the important thing. He apparently thought that forum regulars would disrespect Old Git if, in fact, her tips came from Carla's book. See you guys? She was (and is) trying to be helpful, and he was trying to "gotcha"!!! It would appear to me that shunning would be the ultimate penalty for a person like Decker.....What do you say guys???? Do you have the self=control to "shun"???????????? (laughter, tee-hee, snicker,laughter again!)

-- jeanne (jeanne@hurry.now), November 12, 1999.

-- catfish joe (joe6pack@bottomdweller.com), November 12, 1999.

Everything is ready, Stan. :)

-- helen (sstaten@fullnet.net), November 12, 1999.

Stan,

I posted my 7/30 essay back in April or May. I made the comment that the average water heater holds enough drinking water to carry a family of four for the requisite seven days. I also suggested buying in bulk results in far more than 30 days food supply.

I can go into the archives and find this post... if I recall, it started with my asking about a hypothetical family and what forum posters would recommend for "preps." Elbow Grease asked for my response, and I provided it. Brian took me to task for ignoring alternative heating. Oh, and Milne said we are all going to die.

We will have water after rollover. Ironically, part of my new job is responsibility for a water supply. It is Y2K compliant... gravity- fed water towers provide potable water. We have back-up generators to run our pumps. Oh, did I mention gravity-fed fuel tanks? Oh, this wasn't my idea... the work was done before I arrived. It does lower our insurance premiums though....

The power will flow, Stan, and you'll have water. There will be food as well, though you might see shortages of some items.

Actually, I've always suggested the FEMA/Red Cross preps were a good starting point. If I recall, my comment was that if I changed my mind about Y2K, I'd lead the pessimist parade. For the record, I have "saddled up." I'm in a new position and wrote a Y2K article for a publication distributed to thousands of citizens. I've made Y2K information available through our public library system and spoken at public meetings. The message has been the same as my message on the forum... including the focus on financial preparations.

I suggest everyone have a Costco card and buy in bulk. I suggest everyone realize they have a week's worth of potable water in the hot water heater... though some bottled water never hurt.

In truth, I don't plan to "rally" neighborhood. The problems will be inconvenient, but for the vast majority of Americans... not life threatening. I will do my job and make sure the basic infrastructure of our jurisdiction remains intact.

I do "poo poo" the bunker mentality because it is both short sighted and ineffective. We, as a society, depend on people doing their collective jobs. What happens if the police, firefighters, and utility workers decide they are better off hiding? This is my "bone" of contention with some pessimists. They are so busy saving their own backside, they cannot see how they depend on others. Until someone shows me they can remove their own appendix, I suggest we need each other.

The gear I have is simply the result of my recreational interests (though I don't go camping as often as I'd like.) It's handy, but I still think a person is better off getting out of debt than worrying about buying a $200 water filter. I have a modest collection of guns, but for the same reason. In the case of firearms, I think a person without proper training takes a risk.

My disagreements are rarely with the pessimists who have nuanced positions on Y2K. There are some thoughtful people who have opinions I certainly respect. Unfortunately, much of my time seems spent dealing with the incessant attacks by people whose position is as nuanced as a sledgehammer. In closing, I think you have sidestepped my basic thesis. If we really experienced "the end of the world," you could hide or try to defend your "stash." Personally, I think Y2K will fall well short of the extreme. The closer we move to rollover, the more I feel vindicated in my position. People like Ed Yardeni (who I respect) have moderated his position to a six-month recession. Even Mr. Ulrich who wrote the somewhat dour article does not expect the four riders of the Apocalypse to cruise down your boulevard. (Though I always picture them looking like the Young Elvis.) It's not that I'm more pessmistic, Stan, but give me a chance... I'm sure we can find another bogeyman after January 1st.

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), November 12, 1999.

Gee...

.....It seems you're well-loved by the forum, Mr. Decker. I thought I was the only one that found you annoying to the tenth power. How come you didn't have anything to say on the thread posted below?

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001kNj

.....You're so wise and knowledgable on the money issue; can't you frame a coherent argument against the late Congressman McFadden? He's sure not to argue back since he's deceased... But - if you were to answer his comments point-by-point, (which you never have the courage to do), you'd be too busy to further obfuscate on this forum. My, what a wonderful idea for you!

-- Patrick (pmchenry@gradall.com), November 12, 1999.

I wish more had your attitude Mr. Decker. I have always wondered about the extremists in the various Y2K scenarios put on display on this forum and how they can even function day to day what with worrying about the chemtrails or what the UN is planning next month.

-- Lurking on the sidelines (Alw@ys lurking.com), November 12, 1999.

Ken Said

"Brian took me to task for ignoring alternative heating."

That is not exactly right, I take everyone to task for ignoring alternate heating. You were just line of sight.

To repeat, there is no contingency plans for utility failure during the dead of winter for an urban enviorment. I have been very consistant over the last two years.

That is why

You keep your liners dry :o)

-- Brian (imager@home.com), November 13, 1999.

LOL an appendectomy, or any other surgeries, after TEOWAWKI: definitely not suitable for immature audiences! On the brighter side; women can bandage us guys with strips of their underwear:)

-- Ocotillo (peeling@out.===), November 13, 1999.

To all: please see my observations on "The Doomers are losing" thread above this. Let's all ignore this whore, this scumbag, this 'man' who demands apologies from elderly ladies. He deserves to be marginalized: his own words have condemned him.

-- Spidey (in@jam.I&D), November 13, 1999.

I'm a long time luker; very seldom post. To all you regular posters: Give us all a break and SHUN this decker jerk. Surely he will go away if no one talks to him!!!!!!! Stan(in particular): PLEASE LET GO!!!!! Decker is NOT worth your time...he can't hold a candle to you in terms of writing and logic. He has never(that I have seen) participated in a thread without denigrating(sp) some/most/all of the other participants. If you must talk to him, give the rest of us a break and just e-mail to him directly. PLUEEEEZE!!!!!!!!

-- longTimeLurker (lurker@lurk.net), November 13, 1999.

Patrick,

I cannot possibly read every thread and I missed yours completely. If you want a point-by-point response, start with this link:

http://www.cofc.edu/~flaherty/conspire.html#14

By the way, the baiting technique is pretty tired. Failure to respond "point by point" does not indicate a lack of courage or assent on my part. For the most part, I come here to discuss Y2K, not debunk conspiracy theorists (or chat monetary policy.)

Brian,

So noted. You have been consistent, and you are right to suggest those "at risk" make suitable arrangements. Do you need a place to stay?

Spidey,

I see your vocabulary is improving. By the way, yelling at other people to ignore me... is hardly ignoring me. Oh, and the last time I checked "elderly" ladies do not receive a free pass on civil behavior. I am very forgiving, however, of the mentally ill.

Long time "luker," I will be delighted to post and receive no responses. There are some people who read what I write. I greatly prefer you ignore me, than attack me.

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), November 13, 1999.