Hi Mr. Yourdon and all you doomers and pollies too!

Living in an apartment in the San Fernando Valley of Los Angeles, my girlfriend and I, who are in our 30s and have no children, have completed our extensive Y2K preps. Because of concerns about possible Y2K-related disruptions and civil unrest--We survived the Northridge earthquake and the L.A. riots--we are considering moving to an area not too far away that is less urban and densely populated.

I would greatly appreciate your thoughtful, reasoned responses to the following questions:

* Would you move or stay? Why?

* Is it too risky to stay?

* How far away do we have to move for the move to be worth the time, energy, and money?

* Will it be safer in a house than in an apartment?

* If you're familiar with the Los Angeles area, can you suggest some locations that are as close to Los Angeles as possible but that are far enough away to be relatively Y2K safe.

Thank you all very much for your time, attention, and responses. Also, thanks a lot for the informative, lively, and often-entertaining discussions on this forum.

Good luck to all in these very challenging times ahead! We need it!

Regards,

Tom

-- Tom (Y2KOhNo!@Yikes!.com), November 12, 1999

Answers

Tom;

Given the history of LA, I would get out y2k or not! A small lot with a 30' camping trailer on it about 100 miles out would be much better. Even a camp ground for 2 weeks 100 miles out would be great. I camp alot. People that camp help each outher out. They ACTUALLY talk to you. 99% are honest, there are no padlocks on tents. Give it some thought.

-- FLAME AWAY (BLehman202@aol.com), November 12, 1999.

Tom,

Besides the roving gangs, your main problem could be water. If there are any problems with the delivery system, every lake and reservoir within 50 miles of downtown will be swarming with people. If I were in your shoes, and could afford to leave the job to escape for 6 months or so, I would head up towards the Kern River area. Go high into the Sierras at least as far as Fairview, and maybe even beyond Sherman Peak. The river has cool crystal water fresh from melted snow. If you can survive up there, you'll never want to go back to LA. Good luck.

-- Hawk (flyin@high.again), November 12, 1999.

I sympathise greatly with your situation. It's not one I'd like to be in. Try thinking it through clearly, and keep your actions consistent.

If you've got good preps, then you shouldn't need to leave your appartment. Even without power, you've got better shelter there than in a tent in the middle of nowhere for a few days, until you run out of water, or if the sewers overflow.

The reasons to leave PRE-rollover are really people issues: rioting (in a rush to get out, say) looting and fire. If you are geniunely worried about these, then get out, and do it early. But you are then betting that you won't have anything to come back to, and you should really prepare on that basis. True, just having a tent and a couple of weeks of food will put you way ahead of most polly's, but if you are worried enough to make the move, then it would make sense to start thinking about what to do if you don't have anything to come back to.

It's sad, but if you are betting on a breakdown to in the city, then the best long-term investment you could make is probably a firearm and a shift in your thinking that makes you ready to use it. If it gets so bad that you were right to leave, then that's the most portable, cheapest way of enhancing the safety and survivability of you and your partner.

Yes, I know, if we all start acting like that, we're all screwed. But you can be armed AND still have social responsibility.

Sorry, I'm rambling. I really just wanted to offer my sympathy and let you know that you're not the only one suffering from last minute jitters. I dunno, I really don't.

-- Colin MacDonald (roborogerborg@yahoo.com), November 12, 1999.

Tom, where are you considering moving to?

-- Pinkrock (aphotonboy@aol.com), November 12, 1999.

From: Y2K, ` la Carte by Dancr (pic), near Monterey, California

Fully Prepped in LA

Self contradictory.

-- Dancr (addy.available@my.webpage), November 12, 1999.

Tom...you are not quite out of the box with your thinking. Why don't you move to where you will have the life style that you wish for, y2k be damned? If you like the country life get up north, at least north of Sacramento. If you want a college town atmosphere, try the area around Eugene, Oregon.....and so forth. You are in your 30s...make your choices now while you are young enuff to handle the job change, etc. I was raised in the LA area. Hated then and still hate it. I don't understand how people can live in ANY city. But that is me. Others can't stand the quiet and the tree frogs and crickets of a country night.

Taz

-- Taz (Taz@aol.com), November 12, 1999.

got buckshot??

-- zoobie (zoobiezoob@yahoo.com), November 12, 1999.

I could personally never live in an apartment anywhere! I get clausterphobic going over to a friend's townhouse for the evening. Hence, I would move out of the city for that reason. (Right after I figured out how I got there in the first place.) By the way, what are your preps?

I didn't move, but I rent a pretty inconspicuous looking house set back a ways from the road with two fireplaces. I also have 2 months worth of food/water and firewood for me and my partner.

Also in the interest of community, I held a neighborhood Y2K meeting where I explained the Domino Effect to a bunch of grey haired neighbors and urged them to prepare, (less beggars I hope.)

So again, What are your preparations short of moving?

JD

-- John Deere (garynorth2@yahoo.com), November 12, 1999.

I live in a highrise in Chicago. Trade ya.

-- (crazy@toddling.town), November 12, 1999.

The Valley has gone through some ugly changes in the last ten years and you might wish to leave, Y2K or not. I say this with the knowledge that pulling up stakes is often a very difficult task. How will this effect your commute to your job? Can you afford the costs associated with a move? Based on your current location I would suggest the Santa Maria area. Good luck!

-- Truth (at@the.ready), November 12, 1999.

Hey Crazy,

I live in a Chicago highrise as well, any thoughts on prep etc? Respond via e-mail (it's real).

John Ludi

-- Ludi (ludi@rollin.com), November 12, 1999.

--of course, move permanently, or at least plan on extensive camping no later than the second week of december. get a trailer for your vehicle, load up your stuff and vamoose! If it's bad, you're a lot better off, if it's not, so what, little extended vacation. win/win goferit, the risks of staying are too great, fires, bio attacks, chem plants going south with toxic clouds, roving looters, and FIRES that cannot be fought because of potentially clogged roads and zip water pressure. get OUT

-- zog (zzoggy@yahoo.com), November 12, 1999.

Tom,

Though now back up in Silicon Valley, I lived in and around SoCal for the past 10 years. Was in Woodland Hills for the Northridge Quake too, in a trashed 3-story apartment complex over a car garage, then moved over with relatives in North Hollywood for the aftershocks and to be in a one-story home.

Will Y2K be like that?

NO... quite different. (Assuming mother nature doesnt act up again). No twisted steel or cracked concrete. It all hinges on the electricity remaining on... or IF off... coming back within the 3-day, Koskinen suggested, storm preparedness period.

AFTER the Northridge experience (the power/water/gas was off for a week in those apartments)... moved part-time up to Idyllwild (two-hour drive away). 5,000-6,000 feet up in a pine forest where the water supply comes from snow melt. Better choice? Yes... at the time.

Think... WATER... IF... the electricity goes down in the valley... and all points beyond.

Think... very restless MASS of thirsty humanity. Remember the L.A. riots? (Was in Laguna at that time. Very safe and seemingly distant. But impacted on a psychological level).

Think... food supply and a hungry mass of people... IF the transportation and supply chains suffer shortages and disruptions... enough... to cause rationing. (Can you spell... upset and angry people?)

Think seasonal garden... which requires a steady water supply... IF things get lean.

Think power and fire... IF SCE (Southern California Edison) goes out for any extended period... a lot of careless people using open flames for candles, fireplaces, oil lamps, etc.... can make mistakes. How do you put out block-to-block fires if the waters not running?

Answer: not easily.

You connect the myriad dots.

Now. Plan alternatives and back-up strategies. (Think... water and food).

Good luck!

Diane

(BTW... IF there are major problems ensuing in SoCal... even the local mountian areas are too close like Arrowhead, Big Bear and Idyllwild--forget Topanga. Head to the Sierras. Also think... one tank of gas... and camping from your car).

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), November 12, 1999.

Are you serious?

I'd rather have a tarpaper shack in Idaho than face what's coming in a Los Angeles county penthouse.

Move, man! Move!

-- Not Whistlin' Dixie (not_whistlin_dixie@yahoo.com), November 12, 1999.

pretend you're in a B horror movie and a chilling voice just whispered:
get out

-- Dan G (thepcguru@hotmail.com), November 12, 1999.

My 22 year-old son lives in Sherman Oaks, his father and I live above Santa Barbara. His plans are to work through Christmas then leave and come north. He'll wait until at least a week after New Year to see if the power stays up in LA. Since no one knows what will happen, and since LA, in particular is, at best volitile, he'll make his decision to return or not, based on what is actually happening. Early on in Y2K information, plans to shut down LA freeways were circulated, easy enough to do by blocking the onramps, whether it's true or not is irrelevant...usually where's there's smoke there's fire. If you chose to stay, get a good map and practice an escape route (my best advice would be to get to the ocean and make your way north, lots of boats). That would be a worst case senario. Another solution would be to move to Simi Valley, Agoura, Chatsworth, any of the outer regions. If things become critical, you are, at least, pointed in the right direction. I suggest going north because the population density is less and you have access to national forest regions that provide camp grounds. If you are unable to move away from LA because of work considerations, think about taking your vacation time the day after New Year. IMHO it will take a day or two before people start to wind up if there is no power or water. Good luck and God bless.

-- Casey DeFranco (caseyd@silcom.com), November 12, 1999.

Tom,

Simi Valley was voted the the safest city in it's population catagory.I lived there for a few years and felt very safe.Alot of cops live in Simi that work other places.There is only two or three ways to enter the town,so it would be easy to block out others from entering.It is surrounnded by hills/mountains unlike the valley,where one town goes into the next without physical boundries.

I have relatives and friends who still live there.I feel they are a heck of alot safer living in Simi Valley then in the San Fernando or Los Angelos areas.

-- Maggie (aaa@aaa.com), November 12, 1999.

Tom=

Moved out of the "valley" area 5+ years ago. Kaua'i is nice this time of year (or any time, for that matter). Lots of water...

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), November 12, 1999.

Tom, here is a relevant excerpt from the article on my website entitled "Serious Voluntary Relocation" that I think will help you in your situation analysis. I would tell you "YES,ABSOLUTELY, LEAVE L.A.!", but you have to make up your own mind, and perhaps this will help.

"Resources for Relocation Information

The book that comes up above all on this subject is Joel Skousen's "Strategic Relocation". Howard Ruff's "How to Prosper During the Coming Bad Years" and Robert Ringer's "How You Can Find Happiness During the Collapse of Western Civilization" (I've read both) have a fair amount of information relevant to this topic as well. The best books on nuclear war survival also usefully touch on this subject. The best of these are probably those by Cresson Kearny, and Bruce Clayton's "Life After Doomsday". Lastly, Ragnar Benson has written at least 3 books on this subject, including "The Modern Survival Retreat".

Several essays on Gary North's website are in my opinion "must-reads" on this subject. His overall site address is www.garynorth.com. Look in the "Martial Law" section, and read the ones written on 08/24/1998, 08/28/1999 and 3/29/1999. Their direct addresses are below.

http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/2385

http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/2423

http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/4153

The last one (below) is a list of cities that sound like great places NOT to be living before the end of 1999, just based on what the government expects to do. Again, look in the "Martial Law" section, this time looking at the article posted on 8/29/1999. Make sure to follow the link out; you need GN's summary AND the list of cities. http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/2429

I would part from you on this topic with this rule: if you walk around your house, and can EITHER see more than 2 other houses OR you could conceivably hit more than one other house with a BB gun, you almost certainly need to move. The main difference between living in the suburbs and the inner city in 2000 is that the people who come to loot your house will probably have come from bigger houses. Small comfort, yes? Please do not waste a single day fixing your location problem if you have one."

my website: www.y2ksafeminnesota.com

-- MinnesotaSmith (y2ksafeminnesota@hotmail.com), November 13, 1999.

Tom, since E.Y. hasn't answered yet, allow me: move at least five and one half miles from the nearest seven eleven. Get a map of your area, plot all the 7/11's, see where the nearest safe location is.

A. K.

-- Al K. Lloyd (all@ready.now), November 13, 1999.

Oops. Make that P.M. Whatever.

A.K.

-- Al K. Lloyd (all@ready.now), November 13, 1999.