I spoke with the delightful Mr. Ulrich, author of a ComputerWorld article recently posted on this forum. During an interesting conversation, I asked Mr. Ulrich his views on the impact of Y2K.

"I am hard pressed to believe it will be worse than a recession," said Ulrich. "I'm not envisioning it is the end of the world as we know it."

While a self-described optimist, Ulrich does anticipate MAJOR Y2K problems... mostly economic. He recommended me to an article on his web site:

http://www.systemtransformation.com/artaftersho.htm

I recommend this article to all forum participants. At first glance, you might think the article contradicts Mr. Ulrich's more positive comments to me. On the contrary, Mr. Ulrich has a nuanced position on Y2K similar to Ed Yardeni. He feels President Clinton was reckless in declaring Y2K "over." Ulrich contends Y2K problems will be chronic rather than acture.... and you can see by the "Aftershock" article, he takes Y2K very seriously.

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), November 11, 1999

Answers

Ken, A very interesting read. I am currently wondering if you have read the "aftershock" article, and if so, did the article change any of your own opinions.

Thanks!

-- (cannotsay25@hotmail.com), November 11, 1999.

Ken

Let me thank you for posting this.

-- Brian (imager@home.com), November 11, 1999.

CP -- Articles -- Y2K Aftershock

-- Brian (imager@home.com), November 11, 1999.

Lying is "reckless".

-- Earl (earl.shuholm@worldnet.att.net), November 11, 1999.

I'm an optimist too. This scenario is not all that different than my own and amply justifies the preparations I have exercised to date for my family and community.

One area left unaddressed, unless I missed it, is terrorism and the potential for international wars or mini-wars based on the exact level of chaos that Ulrich suggests.

The other, outside the scope of this article, is whether the summer of 2000 will see stabilization of the situation or a worsening of it, domestically and internationally.

I hope that what begins as a recession can be contained as a recession. Much will depend on government and business leadership ... or its absence. About that, I am NOT optimistic. Hence, I believe the Yourdon scenario remains the most likely long-term scenario.

This was a good, thought-provoking article.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), November 11, 1999.

Scenario from the paper. Interesting.

Part V: An Industry-by-Industry Analysis

Viewing the year 2000 issue by industry helps put the issued into perspective. Most of the problems foreseen in this paper are not insurmountable and, as stated earlier, all things are relative. The discussion begins with the most common year 2000 concerns such as power, natural gas, communications, water and sewage treatment, and financial issues. We then examine transportation, oil, manufacturing, food, health, insurance, defense, societal impacts, economic and political factors.

The following industry-specific scenarios take place in the second quarter of the year 2000.

Power
While NERC reports from the second half of 1999 were very positive, not all U.S regions came out unscathed. Fortunately, domestic power companies addressed initial regional blackouts during the month of January. The Eastern U.S. was hit harder due to the many independent utilities with no contingency plans. Some cities suffered outages for a few days while other regions were brought off the power grid to balance the load. Massive outages never materialized, but inconveniences were common.

Because of these "spot" outages, a number of municipalities and private companies took legal action against failed utilities in various regions. This was predictable based on a 1999 power failure in downtown Chicago that resulted in the mayor encouraging companies to seek remuneration for damages caused by the outage. Small and large businesses took loses that will likely never be recovered. If damages are paid out, the money will probably have to come directly from the utilities because their insurance companies do not cover year 2000 failures.

Pre-2000 research was predictive of power industry failures. One report(16) found that many smaller power companies started late, did not commit adequate funding and lacked a strong commitment to a year 2000-resolution program. The report went on to say that the August 1999 NERC report on year 2000 readiness only represented 251 of the total 7,941 U.S. power providers. In other words, the positive conclusions offered up by NERC on power preparedness were drawn from a scant 3% of the total number of U.S. power providers.

Internationally, Latin America, parts of Asia, Eastern Europe, Russia and many African nations are still trying to stabilize power production and transmission. In developing countries such as Nigeria, power stability was never ideal in the first place and people are dealing with the situation. In countries where power is required and expected, such as Russia, Japan and China, outages have caused people to lose their patience. Global outages have slowed manufacturing, oil production, harvesting and other essential functions. The impact of these outages on various industries will be more fully addressed in later sections.

Nuclear Power
The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) ordered two nuclear plants to be brought off-line in late December due to non-compliance. Backup generators, while shaky, have kept cooling ponds intact in regions where power outages hit. Solar powered backup systems were installed where spent fuel cooling ponds had no diesel powered backup systems. These systems kicked in during the brief regional power outages that sprinkled various regions of the U.S. This was fortunate given that spent fuel ponds contain much more radioactive material than does a nuclear core and could melt down in a couple of days without power.

With summer around the corner, concerns continue over the plants taken off-line. Industries and individuals may need to conserve energy this summer, depending on how well the overall electric utility industry responds to current oil shortages (discussed in a subsequent section).

Internationally, the status of nuclear power remains unclear. Russian facilities are working at less than full capacity and it has been a long winter in numerous countries where systems had to be brought off-line. The ex-Soviet nuclear sites located in a variety of regions had no backup generators until the Russians succumb to last minute cries by environmentalists to install at least a few backup power systems. This was the best money the U.S. and Russian could spend.

Natural Gas
Domestic interruptions in natural gas flow were limited, but plagued various regions well into February. The fix-on-failure strategy employed by a few energy companies slowed natural gas delivery due to problems with transmission equipment. This equipment had been certified compliant by the vendor, but ultimately failed. Problems resurfaced on February 29, 1999 as a handful of leap-day routines failed. The situation appears to be under control at this point and not as bad as a Navy report had initially indicated.(17)

Natural gas flow from Russia, which produces over 35% of the world's total supply, was cut off for a period of time, sending Eastern European countries into a deep freeze. There is no clear indication as to when all of the problems would be rectified. This is has caused a population shift from Eastern European regions to Western European regions. People have been fleeing cold weather areas with no heat for regions with reliable heating systems. Hopefully these systems can be back in shape by winter of 2000.

The impacts on businesses have been even more severe. Numerous delays, closures and other problems have made their way to the western press over the past few months. Western companies with suppliers and subsidiaries in these regions realized that natural gas outages were causing more than a passing disturbance.

Communications
Domestic phone service ran into some limited interruptions in rural regions and areas serviced by small independent communication providers. Generally, many of the problems reported in the communications sector had to do with reconciliation of payment among long-distance and local service providers, billing errors, voice mail problems and the process of establishing and managing customer accounts.

International communication system failures resulted in 25% degradation in phone service between the U.S. and foreign markets. The hardest hit regions were Russia, Latin American, China and Eastern Europe. Satellite links have also seen some problems, which have since been resolved. Foreign investments have suffered as a result of these problems.

In August of 1999 Vint Cerf of MCI WorldCom Inc. and Don Heath, president of Virginia's Internet Society, made claims that the Internet would be working in the year 2000.(18) But the entrepreneurial spirit that built the Internet meant that the systems controlling the root servers were never audited for compliance. Corporations have known for years that PC, mid-range, database and networking systems were susceptible to the year 2000 problem, but academia and many high-tech companies felt they were immune to the problem.

The Internet survived after numerous logjams that kept users waiting and home pages idle for weeks. This took the glitter off of E-Business and E-Commerce companies for a while, but these companies bounced back when response time returned. The year 2000 did, however, highlight the need for the Internet to seek out a much more resilient system of governance.

Water & Sewage Treatment
Two major cities and numerous outlying areas experienced water treatment problems in the early part of 2000. Residents were forced to boil or filter water in these areas. This result, however, was more positive than the one predicted by an American-Canadian conference held in February 1999. At that meeting, attendees determined that only 89% of community water systems servicing populations of 100,000 to one million people would achieve compliance.(19)

With thousands of water districts, and the difficulty of determining if any one is year 2000 compliant, there was no way of telling how this situation would turn out. The Center for Disease Control (CDC) issued warnings to these regions and predicted that the potential for disease might be on the rise.

Internationally, water shortages, along with power and communication failures, have slowed the influx of pilgrims that Italy expected to arrive to celebrate the new millennium. One lessoned learned from this experience is that water is such a key resource, and a fragile one in many regions of the U.S. and globally, that people should not take it for granted.

Sewage processing problems were sporadically reported around the U.S. and internationally. Cities and towns found themselves jumping into action to deal with spills leakages similar to the Southern California spill reported in June 1999. (20)

Overall, water management and sewage processing problems resulted in more challenges to the general populous than did power and communication outages. Internationally, many countries found that they did not have a high degree of computerization in their water systems. But similar problems plagued more modern regions.

Financial Institution
Most people feared the worst from financial institutions while regulatory agencies suggested that there was nothing to fear but bank runs. Fears of not being able to get their cash out of the bank or of banks losing investor money were largely unfounded, at least domestically. Large financial institutions have, however, experienced numerous errors in transactions being processed through international institutions. It has been difficult to say how much money may have been lost to year 2000 errors infiltrating internal systems from external sources. Security breaches also hit certain institutions throughout the first quarter, but activity in this area stayed within Gartner Groups $1 billion estimate.

On a personal level, the bank runs anticipated leading up to the year 2000 never really materialized, but there was a significant amount of cash stashed away by individuals in any case. Some ATM systems failed, but investors had little problem going into a given bank and getting money out of the system. At least a few ATM failures were anticipated. One pre-2000 test uncovered massive problems that would have shut down over 8,000 ATM machines had they not been found and corrected in advance.(21)

Internationally, banks did have problems processing transactions and keeping accurate records. Many of these problems were passed on in the form of direct deposit delays, inaccurate cash balances, ATM failures, credit card failure and credit record problems. Many of these issues will take time to correct, particularly when a credit record has been corrupted.

Transportation, Shipping & Travel
The shipping industry was hit with a pre-2000 shipping rush as a result of corporate stockpiling. Companies increased inventory levels for raw materials, fuel, replacement parts and component parts. Stockpiling was held up by a shortage of ocean liners. European countries imposed surcharges on large bulk shipments of containers being sent into the region.

After 2000 arrived, various sectors of the shipping industry were hit with problems. Rail transport experienced routing system problems that resulted in delays with product and fuel delivery. Scheduling of passenger transit systems was also upended in many urban areas. Truck companies experienced problems with engine diagnostic equipment, fuel availability, routing systems and inter-modal rail transport coordination.

Ocean going traffic was delayed because of problems with computerized load balancing systems, navigation systems, port control systems, automated locks and canals, and paperwork linked to import / export controls. Ocean freight transport has been reduced by 30-to-40% and governments have had to prioritize what could be shipped to who and when. Medical supplies, food and fuel had priority over and above other goods. Because of this, numerous industries found themselves waiting in line for non-critical products and materials.

Many of these problems plagued the passenger travel industry as well. No safety problems were experienced in the airline industry. Air travel, however, ran about 72 or more hours behind schedule and well below normal capacity. These delays were in many cases precautionary and self-imposed by certain airlines or airports. Airport systems also experienced delays due to security and building management system failures, staff scheduling problems and runway management.

Internationally, many of these problems were more pronounced. In a number of countries, the U.S. State Department abandoned their embassies. Travelers that did not heed early warnings from the State Department found themselves with no where to turn and no way out of many developing regions. All in all, the first quarter was a lousy time to be a tourist.

Oil
Domestic and international oil producing companies, using a fix-on-failure strategy, had problems with large oil wells, refineries and pipeline routing systems. According to one pre-2000 study, almost 75% of embedded devices in large oil wells and pipelines were inaccessible for compliance testing. Repairs were delayed where replacement components did not fit into larger pieces of equipment. This situation snowballed in many cases and forced upgrade teams into replacing entire valves that surrounded the equipment needing replacement.

Two domestic refineries were shut down because of power outages in those regions. A 90-day restart requirement has kept them off-line to date. There is a fear that shortages could impact peak power supply demands this summer.

While the problem is coming under a degree of control domestically, the problem was worse internationally. Major infrastructure problems crippled Venezuela causing oil exports to drop to 30% of normal capacity. Similar problems slowed exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and even Canada. The handful of countries that delivered almost half of U.S. oil supplies were not keeping up with demand and maritime delays magnified these problems.

Ninety-day oil supplies, already drained from motorists filling up their tanks in December 1999, are running low. Gasoline prices rose to $3.00 per gallon by March 2000. Rationing is now in full force. Gasoline rationing has even slowed the delivery of food to some areas.

In addition to the problems found in the oil industry, chemical plant system failures have resulted in severe warnings from government regulators if safety and other containment systems cannot be corrected. Spills and seepages have sprung up around the U.S. The health of a number of communities has been compromised. Internationally, the Red Cross estimated that hundreds of incidents of this kind have been reported in more than 20 countries.

Manufacturing
The Naval War College presents multiple scenarios in their research study on the year 2000. One of these scenarios is called the "Flood Scenario" in which the problems slowly builds, at some point peaks, and then slowly subsides.(22) In that report, the manufacturing sector is one of the "low lying" areas that would be hit by this scenario due to the delayed impact of the supply chain.

International supply chain failures stung numerous manufacturing sectors. Import / export delays were compounded by transportation problems and slowed delivery of fuel, raw materials and component parts. Several ports and canals are just reopening. Companies shut down production and assembly lines for days or even weeks. Many remain closed.

Manufacturing firms impacted the most were those relying heavily on international suppliers or subsidiaries. International power, communication, transportation, government and other infrastructure failures forced the closure of manufactures in Eastern Europe, Latin America and Asia. Some U.S. multinational corporations had to close operations entirely in areas where recovery times look to be indeterminate.

Domestically, many small and mid-size companies have defaulted due to a halt in product demand from large downstream customers. Delays in the delivery of electronic components from Asia hurt the computer industry's ability to ship new product. One pharmaceutical firm was receiving 80% of their raw materials and products from international sources. While this firm had things under control internally, reliance on a failed international supply chain forced this firm to retrench its business strategy.

While the manufacturing industry has been hit hard by year 2000 problems, most sectors should be digging out later this year. The impact on small businesses with only a handful of large customers has been devastating. Internationally, it may take more than a year for many of these companies to reenter foreign markets where infrastructure problems continue to plague their ability to do business in those regions.

Food
Canning system failures at two U.S. plants halted the production certain food products. International food production and delivery has slowed. Fresh produce selections are limited in many northern markets. Problems appear to be escalating.

The food industry requires the growing, processing, warehousing and distribution of an endless variety of products that very much mirrors the manufacturing industry. International supply chain and transportation failures slowed or halted the availability of certain types of foods. Governments have assured consumers that food shipments from international destinations will take priority along with that of fuel and medical supplies.

International delays are one problem, but failures at domestic processing plants have occurred as well. Problems with certain types of computerized production and control systems resulted in food that did not clear the quality control process. This resulted in the slowing of production and shortages in certain areas. While these problems are being corrected, they could have been predicted. In July of 1999, a Gartner Group survey found that only 25% of the companies surveyed had completed work on the embedded systems that control many of the processing and tracking functions.(23)

Shortages have additionally been fueled by the fact that certain U.S. regions decided to hang on to food produced locally that would normally be shipped to other domestic locations. U.S. food exports are also slowing, although the full impact of this situation is unlikely to unfold until the fall. The bottom line is that people are not starving, but shortages of key items continue to plague domestic stores throughout the country.

Health & Wellbeing
This discussion centers on the increased likelihood of a rise in various health problems and the decreased capacity of the medical profession to address these challenges. An increase in emergency cases was reported due to sewage and water treatment system failures and chemical accidents. This was compounded by the failure of hundreds of 911 systems around the U.S. Home care and nursing home patients were also impacted by failures in computer-controlled dialysis, IV and other types of monitoring equipment.

Health care is highly reliant on the pharmaceutical, biomedical equipment and insurance industries. The pharmaceutical industry is, in turn, highly reliant on countless suppliers spread across dozens of countries. Thanks to good contingency planning, shortages were mostly limited to non-critical drug supplies. But the industry has yet to catch up in the manufacture and distribution of the full breadth of drug supplies.

The biomedical industry experienced certified many systems as compliant, but subsequent testing found them to be non-compliant.(9) This ultimately backfired on the many hospitals, extended care and other health care facilities that took product compliance data at face value. Fortunately, no serious problems have been reported due to this situation.

The insurance industry, particularly medicare and medicaid, have been slow to respond to health care claims. Pharmacies and hospitals are also working through communication problems with insurance companies due to computer data errors. In addition, many smaller hospitals have been hit with enough patient admitting, billing and payment delays that they had to either close down or be bought out by bigger hospitals.

Insurance Industry
Medicaid, medicare and numerous health maintenance organizations have run into snags processing claims and ensuring eligibility. This was particularly problematic for the countless individuals that had enrolled in group health plans at the end of 1999. This has turned into one giant headache for the health care industry.

The insurance industry as a whole is embroiled in an almost endless stream of disputes regarding claims that may or may not be year 2000 related. This is particularly true in the marine, directors and officers liability, and property and casualty areas. This stems from the fact that many providers are not covering year 2000 related claims. Companies that wanted to sidestep this issue placed claims that were supposedly not year 2000 related.

Insurance investigators discovered, however, that many of the data loss, equipment failure and other claims truly are year 2000 related. The biggest dispute is whether or not an insurance company should consider an issue as year 2000 related when the cause was indirect, such as a supplier failure. U.S. based lawsuits are being filed in earnest, despite the law that attempts to limit liability.

Military & Defense
It is unlikely that anyone will ever know whether the year 2000 had an impact on many defense systems. The number of administrative systems that were triaged during the remediation phase of the project did cause problems with payroll and other personal functions. Internationally, Russia's early warning system stayed up and ongoing contact with the west ensured that Russia did not overreact to any false missile warnings. The biggest issue for the military, however, was assessing how many global situations they could respond to with limited resources.

For example, a Russian power outage resulted in a call for additional generators and fuel to keep cooling systems functioning on Russia's mothballed nuclear submarine fleet. The U.S. military responded and the situation appears contained for now. Other situations continue to force the defense department to respond in kind. There was an increase in terrorism during the millennium transition period. Protecting oil-producing countries has been a top priority. These challenges are likely to continue throughout the year.

Societal Disruptions
Welfare, child support and related system failures have held up recipient payments. Federal systems and state systems have reported failures. Interface data has been lost or force bad information into the system. Large urban areas have been on the losing end of these problems.

These failures, coupled with layoffs in the manufacturing and small business sector, have lead to an increase in urban crime. Non-profit foundations have also been on the losing end with donations down. The Red Cross, Salvation Army and other sources have been overwhelmed for all of the reasons stated earlier in this paper. All of this has served to drive up stress levels among people, which in turn have lead to an increase in domestic violence. These secondary impacts will take much longer to correct than many of the initial impacts of the year 2000 problem.

Economic Conditions
Market fears began in late 1999, but with the year 2000 now here, the economy is in a bind. Fuel price increases and product scarcities have driven up inflation. Manufacturing and transportation layoffs are driving up unemployment, while productivity delays have shrunk corporate profits. The Federal Reserve Board is discussing interest rate strategies, but with inflation up and GDP on the decline, they are in a quandary as to how to respond. The DOW closed under 8000 points yesterday. With international economies in worse shape, the U.S. government hopes that foreign investments will help offset GDP losses. Billions in investment money have disappeared.

Internationally the situation is worse. Many developing countries are stuck with import / export, transport, shipping and infrastructure failures. Asia, facing many similar problems along with manufacturing and financial system failures, has slipped back into financial doldrums. As predicted, numerous business failures have erupted in Balkan countries and in Russia.(24) Italy is in an almost equally problematic state. It is likely to take some time for these economies to stabilize.

Political Consequences
U.S. presidential primaries have found some new heroes and made some people scapegoats. In late January, President Clinton unceremoniously fired John Koskinen, the U.S. Year 2000 Czar and put Al Gore in charge of straightening out the situation. With no history of dealing with the issue, Gore was able to come in and appear to save the day. His poll numbers are up and he appears to have wrapped up the Democratic nomination for president. The future is yet to unfold on this topic.

Internationally, governments have toppled due to major year 2000 impacts. Russian President Boris Yeltsin was an early casualty. Unrest in China is also growing. As the situation evolves, it appears that any politician in the wrong place at the wrong time was a target for removal.

Part VI: Looking Ahead

The Naval War College study stated that "If Y2K proves to be an historical turning point between one era and the next, it won't be because of what Y2K is, but because of what it told us about the status quo and the need for change. In short, it's not what Y2K destroys that will be important, but what it illuminates."(22)

Political scenarios, economic conditions and equanimity among the masses may have shifted forever. In the U.S., the masses have learned that political machinery, public relations experts and industry associations are not always the best source of information on a serious problem. The rich are still rich, but even they are taking a hit. Individuals that rely on social services are more alienated than before.

The healing process will be more than economic. Why did people wait so long to begin fixing the year 2000 problem and then jump so quickly to claim that they were finished? Government and private sector institutions have systemic problems that require correcting. The year 2000 has exposed this and hopefully this is a direction that we can all turn to in unison. Until then, good luck to us all.

-- John Ainsworth (ainsje00@wfu.edu), November 11, 1999.

"Fears of not being able to get their cash out of the bank...were largely unfounded, at least domestically."

The factual basis for this premise is not explained. It contradicts a number of surveys of what people allegedly plan to do with their bank accounts in December.

This assumption, that the banks won't crash, is of central importance to the entire Ulrich scenario. On the other hand, if we assume a bank panic shutting down the check clearing system, credit and capital markets, we arrive at somewhat gloomier conclusions.

-- Not Whistlin' Dixie (not_whistlin_dixie@yahoo.com), November 11, 1999.

I went and read "After Shock." I think it fine for people to toy with scenarios and to his or her best mentally work out what "Y2K" might and might not be, but as for it being accurate or material for reference? No.

A different bug exists in America and one as scary and potentially disatrous as the Y2K broken code, and that is the belief that America and Americans are smarter, faster, and more together than others. I discredit any material I come across with the, "They'll be down, but we Americans will be up and running lickety split!"

No we Americans are not going to be "whiz kids." Americans have a lower educational standard than most of the globe. Americans do not have a higher I.Q. or a larger amount of "brilliant answers," and Americans are not swifter than others physically, mentally or educationally.

The "we're special and different cuz we're Americans" thought process dies on the spot with me.

In my own mental scenario of what Y2K may or may not be, I have the middle class gasping for breath as its standard of living plunges-and it will no longer be a middle clas as we define it presently, and many a "Yuppy" losing his or her pants and discovering painfully that no one found them so "precious" as to feed them. I have the Hillbilly a bit smug with his or her bee hive, shack on the Bayou, sacks of flour and the nation comes to grips in horror that even in a nuclear holocaust the "American survivor" is this scenario:

Ma is sitting out front on a tire, her flat but heavy bottom comfortably resting in the center, her eye's are hard and sharp on the fire, she is holding a glass jar of moonshine with her knee's parted and her thin graying black hair is escaping from the rubber band making a pony tail, she hears the screen door of the rough wood shack bang, and turning towards it focusing her eye's on the young man in his stained overalls and plump bare arms, hollers, "BillyJoe, you come on down to this here fire and have some of these Van Der Camp beans."

It makes one ponder if Uncle Sam did the right thing to "prevent the people from panic?" Perhaps it ought to explore having a different set of American survivors?

-- Paula (chowbabe@pacbell.net), November 11, 1999.

A quick read of this excerpt above is enough to pass summary judgment. Ulrich, if he is an optimist, cannot see the forest for the trees. Let's leave out EVERYTHING else--if gasoline goes to $3/gallon, consider the impact on the economy of that alone! Now, add in all the other myriad factors, from delays to shutdowns, from jobs lost to infrastructure crippled. And consider that all this occurs in a world wallowing in debt, leveraged and hedged to the max with derivatives in excess of seventy trillion, and that all the countries involved are up to the hilt in national debt (including, amazingly, even wealthy Japan). I promise you, the implosion will blow poor Ulrich's mind. By the way, a DOW at 8000 represents by itself an investor loss of nearly three TRILLION, not a few billion. Ulrich may be rich, successful, influential, respected, but as far as I can see he's living in dreamland, has been all of his life, and that is the source of his optimism. In the face of his own observations he still doesn't get it. So let me spell it out: IT'S OVER! The dreamland he lived in was fully financed by the spoils he and his kind received in exchange for supervising the pillage of a vast and powerful nation that my father and grandfather and greatgrandfathers sweated blood to construct. He probably thinks of himself as innocent. So did a lot of French aristocrats before their Revolution. But he is a mid-level functionary in the system of piracy that made of the greatest creditor nation on the planet twenty years ago the geatest debtor nation in the history of humankind, today. And when the SHTF, the trials won't be heavily nuanced. Simplistic judgments will be the order of the day. If you made more than $100k/year, you are guilty. Any last words, Mr. Chronic-not-Acute?

-- StanTheMan (heidrich@presys.com), November 11, 1999.

Paula--

You got me today I am now ROTFLMAO. But, you do have a point.

-- vandekampsgood (karlacalif@aol.com), November 11, 1999.

Stan, is that 100K/yr for a single or double income family? I think you need to up that just a bit imho. I personally work my ass off for the money I make, and unfortunately where I live 100k doesn't actually go very far.

-- $$$ (karlacalif@aol.com), November 11, 1999.

The scenario's were entertaining, but as most y2k scenarios go, based on erroroneous information. Some of the errors of fact:

POWER - "Pre-2000 research was predictive of power industry failures. One report(16) found that many smaller power companies started late, did not commit adequate funding and lacked a strong commitment to a year 2000-resolution program. The report went on to say that the August 1999 NERC report on year 2000 readiness only represented 251 of the total 7,941 U.S. power providers. In other words, the positive conclusions offered up by NERC on power preparedness were drawn from a scant 3% of the total number of U.S. power providers."

This is erroneous information being posted on several sites, including Westergaard. The August NERC report to the Senate actually represented about 3000 power providers/distributors, since it included status gather by other organizations in addition to its own membership, and represent about 85 or 90% of generation in the US. The Senate indicates that there are another 2000 or so IPPs that were not included. The IPPs aren't significant contributors to the grid, and in any case they should be addressed by the Y2K programs of the companies that own and use the power they generate.

NUCLEAR POWER - "The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) ordered two nuclear plants to be brought off-line in late December due to non-compliance. "

See my recent post - NRC confirms all 103 Nuclear Power plants are Y2K Ready.

Regards,

-- FactFinder (FactFinder@bzn.com), November 11, 1999.

Mr. Decker...

Sir I am indeed optimistic! I am opmistic, that you can still set a saddle. And someone will let you ride herd on the sheep. (Don't forget how to dock them now)..Good tasting(they tell me). Personally down here in Texas we herd Jack Rabbits, and a few cows (if it ever rains).

Mr. Fact Finder...

Sir I find your conclusions a bit like Kosty's sudden findings that there are possible failure dangers in embeded systems which are not using dates in their assigned function...Why? Well because young fine sir..They have just found out that a lot of the embeded systems "are" capable of date functions (even though they are not using them in their assigned function). And because they are capable of the date function, they CAN fail on roll over or when they are shut down and re-booted!

Guys you should talk real hard with Kosty...He's cutting the rug out from under your colletive feet with every draw of his breath..

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Shakey~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

-- Shakey (in_a_bunker@forty.feet), November 11, 1999.

On reflection -

Two parts of this scenario are enough to make even a jaded northaholic sit up and take notice.

>>>>Natural gas flow from Russia, which produces over 35% of the world's total supply, was cut off for a period of time, sending Eastern European countries into a deep freeze. There is no clear indication as to when all of the problems would be rectified. This is has caused a population shift from Eastern European regions to Western European regions. People have been fleeing cold weather areas with no heat for regions with reliable heating systems.<<<<<

If half of Europe is packing up and moving into the other half, we have real problems! Imagine the chaos, death, armed response if a mass migration like this occurs. If this happens Y2K is officially a 10 for Europe, even if things are just peachy keen in America.

Under the DoD section

>>>>The number of administrative systems that were triaged during the remediation phase of the project did cause problems with payroll and other personal functions.<<<<

How long will the US be able to maintain a viable (or even C-4) fighting force if they are not paid? How long will soldiers hang around waiting for their paycheck?

-- John Ainsworth (ainsje00@wfu.edu), November 11, 1999.

Ok, so Bill Ulrich went out on a limb and painted a picture of what could happen. I share his views about a chronic malaise that will take quite a while to blow over. To my knowledge, he has never publicly stated where he falls on the 1 to 10 scale. He could be right on, he could be wrong. How many of us have made prognostications about the future? Almost everyone on this forum has regardless of which camp they seem to reside in.

What I do know is this. Bill has worked for years on Y2K issues. He has also generously donated time he probably did not have to the Santa Cruz County community Y2K effort (which, speaking from experience, is akin to herding cats).

Say what you want. Those of us who know him and have worked with him have a lot of respect for Bill. Whether his story is a true parable or not will play itself out in a few months.

-- Nancy (wellsnl@hotmail.com), November 12, 1999.

Good catch Mr. Decker. Think I'm more pleased by your having read and posted the article than by my reading stuff I'd already learned here and elsewhere. Should I offer *welcome aboard*?

-- Carlos (riffraff1@cybertime.net), November 12, 1999.

Red,

I had not read, Aftershock, before. Thanks for bringing it to my attention.

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (faryna@groupmail.com), November 12, 1999.

Sorry, but I had to laugh at the following, from Ulrich's bio:

"Mr. Ulrich is a leading figure in the rapidly growing Y2K community movement".

The "community movement" is/was a pipe dream, and has died a glorious death. Or have I missed something?

An otherwise thought-provoking read, despite the numerous spelling errors. His outlook is a bit gloomier than mine, but not much.

-- Steve (hartsman@ticon.net), November 12, 1999.

P.S. I found the Aftershock Scenario (Appendix A) to be very interesting. Perhaps, Red, you might comment on it.

William Ulrich writes: "This scenario was designed to dramatize a meeting of neighbor's where they are discussing the impact of the year 2000 challenge - and how they are responding."

1. A Y2K neighborhood group has a meeting.

My comment: Unfortunately, the fact is that there are few Y2K neighborhood groups.

2. The grocery stores didn't have food on the shelves for two week. After the grocery stores were restocked in January, further food shortages ensued; the neighborhood relied on additional food that had been stockpiled. Note: these additional food stockpiles had been previously considered extreme and unneccesary actions.

My comment: The initial two weeks of food shortages were assumedly caused by the jitters. It took several weeks before real food shortages happened -- food shortages caused directly by Y2K problems. Are you prepared to feed every man, woman, child, and domestic animal in your neighborhood for (at least) 30 days? However, there lacks any description of social unrest that would likely follow such food shortages.

3. Shrinking corporate profits, flight from the stock market, layoffs, inflation, and a real grinding down in the global economy.

My comment: No discussion of the likely social protests and problems that follow upon such problems. No rise in the crime rate?

4. Some businesses had only stockpiled a few weeks worth of imported goods; imported goods were not being manufactured in foreign countries due to Y2K problesm. These businesses are likely to fail.

My comment: No discussion of how the loss of imported goods impacted consumers. For example, what did people do if they needed a new pair of shoes?

5. The hungry, homeless, and poor are impacted by fewer and fewer resources (private donations).

My comment: It is not clear whether the hungry, homeless, and poor increased or not due to Y2K.

6. The local water treament system failed for an indeterminate amount of time and was fixed. Sewage treatment plants elsewhere failed and large numbers of people were evacuated. 911 systems and fire department systems failed and had to be fixed. At least one house burned down.

My comment: No description of the social and health problems that would have followed from water treatment and sewage treatment failure. It is unlikely that only one house would burn down and not others.

7. Massive lawsuits are underway. The incompetency and bad decisions of corporate executives is being exposed in depositions.

My comment: Civil suits and criminal investigations against executives and public officials are not discussed.

8. Stored food is not enough to sustain the neighborhood by late spring. Due to expectations of continued food shortages; the neighborhood garden project is essential.

My comment: I will assume that seed for the neighborhood garden project was stored by doomers.

9. Banks are foreclosing on homes.

My comment: This is inferred through John's relief of having paid his mortgage off on his house.

10. This is an ideal community that prepped together and held together through the storm; elsewhere it was worse.

My comment: Got an address for this neighborhood?

Sincerely,
Stan Faryna

Got 14 days of preps? If not, get started now. Click here.

Click here and check out the TB2000 preparation forum.

-- Stan Faryna (faryna@giglobal.com), November 12, 1999.

Interesting scenario, I suppose, only because it takes a stab at many vectors.... then ignores the ramifications and the interconnectedness between the vectors. Also considerable reliance is placed upon "someone" who figures out rationing and distribution of scarce resources.

Y2k scenarios: Our world is too interconnected to forecast the future in any way but the most casual and surface. We will have to wait.

I think it was Lane Core who wrote: "We don't have contingency plans, we have contingency fantasies".

-- Mitchell Barnes (spanda@inreach.com), November 12, 1999.

karlacalif--Point one: Michael Millken worked damned hard for his billions, but that doesn't change the fact he was a fat maggot on the corpse of America. Point two: I'm not proposing such trials, I'm predicting them as the possible consequence of class-war hatred rising from the carnage of y2k. Point three: if you're in an area where it's hard to get by on 100k (single or double income), you're toast anyway. Point four: none of us are innocent, it's only a question of degree of complicity, and that degree is, like it or not, directly proportional to income. Don't kid yourself any longer , Karla. Except perhaps for Ted Kozinsky, we all participated in the rape of the American Dream, and we all will pay. Remember the words of William Munney... "We all got it coming, kid."

-- StanTheMan (heidrich@presys.com), November 12, 1999.