Stocks, Gold, Oil Markets and Y2K indicators : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

Howdy Gang,

I've not been around putting in my 2 cents worth for much of the past couple of weeks. Frankly, I'm sure you folks didn't miss much...but seeing how there have been some folks here asking about a Y2K impact on the markets showing up yet, I thought maybe a few comments might be in order.


Short term... (Daily Bar Charts basis) Technical analysis is mixed on DJIA. Some oscillators are giving new bearish signals including the Directional Movement Index with ADX however this is an as yet "confirmed" signal which may get confirmation with Thursday's trading. Also Fast Stochastics and Slow stochastics oscillators are also giving 'sell' signals. Most of the other 10 or so oscillators are still neutral. A couple are even bullish, so 'go figure, huh?' A few more days may just give a clearer picture of an emerging new trend...lately the DJIA has been "churning in a narrow trading range.

Medium Term... (weekly bar charts basis) Technicals are a little more bearish...many of the oscillators have remained in a "sell" signal for some time now. I don't think any oscillators are bullish.

Longer Term... (Monthly bar charts basis or i.e. Historical basis) Technicals still on verge of being very much long term bearish (as in years of bearishness) A few of the oscillators that tend to lag are still showing bullishness...but these are usually "johnny-come- lately's" to a move no matter the direction.

CRUDE OIL ---- DING, DING, DING !!!! We have a winner here folks.... give the young marksman a kewpie doll for marksmanship...

Crude oil is now apparently about to resume ...or seems poised on the verge of re-starting a perhaps historic rise. NOW...this is 'technically assessed' here. The oscillators (especially DMI w/ ADX) have rapidly become very very bullish... Did I mention "very"? The market seems poised to take off again. It's hovering just under $25.00 a barrel. In the next few days we may see an overbought situation correcting itself with temporarily lower prices...that might bring it from $26.50 back down below $25.00 to where it is right now...but that would be temporarily.

Short term... bullish perhaps up to $26.50 and soon? Probably would see a little profit taking in here somewhere though.

It may well be that Oil futures are beginning to show the faint glimmerings of expecting Y2K problems. I wouldn't say that is a certainty, but to this observer... It seems to me as though Y2K is perhaps now becoming a lurking shadowing factor in the background for this market.

Oscillators on a Daily Bar Basis, Weekly Bar Basis and Monthly Bar Chart Basis are all very bullish for oil. This means that there is no top in sight on this particular "bull" market run. In fact we are only in the very early stages or so it seems. While I don't think we'll see an explosion in prices before Thanksgiving (oh, oh...lookout now...I'm going out on that limb...hey put that chainsaw down, mister -- oh no, here comes the Squirrel King and his band of merry saw-toothed beavers)... so while I don't see an explosion in prices before turkey-day I do suspect that the market is poised to do a big move between T-giving & Christmas. [now just watch those prices plummet after having posted this :-)]

Technically this market is situated for who knows what kind of wild ride...but that's not to say that it will just that it's technically feasible. This would be in keeping with all of those oil industry folks indicating Y2K will put a hurt on Oil supplies. Somebody, was it you Gordon or someone else has been whining about not seeing any indicators in the oil market of oil insiders positioning for Y2K...well, guess what? They've apparently begun to do just that here lately... (last 2 weeks or so, but quietly albeit tentatively).


Ah, gold. What can I say? This market is still NOT showing any signs of Y2K fever due to manipulations. IMHO.

Short term... Technicals are mixed...some oscillators are bearish, some look for a continued small rally for the next couple of days. (not much of a jump here though). Then a resumption to the downside test of $286 and probably look for that next week. (Now watch it soar to $320 after I go out on that limb again! :-)

Medium and Long Term (basis: Weekly and Monthly bar charts)

Indicators have turned fully bearish... NO signs of Y2K tremors in this market, not yet at least. Unless we see some real Y2K 'chaos' between now and year end, I doubt we'll see gold make any significant bullish moves... (now watch it go to $400, hah).

Slightly Good news for goldbugs --- Market tested $286 and the bulls defended that line in the sand successfully as the "shorts" hammered that point in an effort to spark margin call selling if prices dropped below that level. Prices coulnd't break to or below $286, so there's still enough bullish support to keep the bears from walking all over the market at will. Still, in the absence of fundamental bullish emergencies... I am figuring the market will probably break thru $286 and head lower down to $260 by Christmas. Oscillators though can't confirm this...just my 'gut' instinct, FWIW. All in all, I suspect that November will not be a kind month to goldbugs, nor will much of December... I figure Y2K may not impact on gold until the last days before Y2K...IF even then.

OH-- for you silver buffs... as gold goes, so goes silver, and platinum too.

Well, that's what I'm seeing out there in marketland.

From the FWIW Department:

I did hear from the head of a major IT firm (well connected politically) that about 30% of the nation will experience severe disruptions in basic utility and public services. I didn't pursue that with him, as we had business to conduct and he was in a hurry for time.

Well, that's my 2 cents worth... I advise no one to trade on the basis of comments that I make here. In fact, taking a contrarian view might just make you more money... it usually works that way once I get out there on a limb. ( I hear that chainsaw again).

From an old retired trader

-- Dick Moody (, November 11, 1999


Dick, while I personally don't trade the markets/casinos (now have a 12 step program for prior activities in related areas), I do watch them carefully for indicators of Y2K awareness levels of the big money. I have always thought that the trigger, if there will be one, will be the markets. If the PPT continue to prop up the Dow, then oil and gold will be the telltale indicators, unless TPTB mess with those too.

Anyway, of all the posts that are made on the various markets, yours make the most sense to me, as I was a stockbroker in a former life and learned that the techincal indicators were often the most reliable. While none of them work 100% of the time, they seem to remove the emotion out of the market, which cannot be understood by the emotional traders. Emotional traders usually lose their a$$ets. You nailed the gold market a couple of weeks ago.

Thanks for you input, keep it coming.

-- former broker (, November 11, 1999.

If I could spell, may have been more successful.....oh well thanks again.

-- cantspel...... (, November 11, 1999.

I have a strange theory as to why the price for gold, oil, or other commodities isn't shooting thru the roof. If TSHTF next year gold, for example, will become priceless...Ayan Rand pointed out that if something is "priceless" it is also basically worthless (at least as a trading commodity). It appears that traders simply can't figure the price range for commodities that might become priceless, so gold, oil, etc. are stuck in a sort of financial limbo till the roll over.

-- Hi Mom (the@cheap.seats), November 11, 1999.

Dick, Thanks for your your input.

Re: Gold For Y2K, I suspect that those that want to add gold to their holdings for Y2K have already done so, unless there is a general increase in Y2K awareness in remaining 50 days (unlikely in my opinion given the Prez's "all clear" yesterday). Post-Y2K, I expect gold to rise due to:

a. Inflation due to FED injection of cash liquidity increasing money supply.

b. Absences of short selling due to global slowdown due to Y2K impacts and Y2K risk aversion on Forex, Intl Exchanges, and foreign banks.

c. Rising demand as in the Islamic Dinar gold foir oil sales.

d. Weakening value of dollar.

Re: Oil I agree this is a more accurate barometer/leading indicator. It is a much larger market with more players and firm demand patterns. I expect to see oil product rationing in January 2000 due to availabilty - perhaps price controls, perhaps a black market with higher than official price transactions. OPEC may want hard assets in return for what reduced supply of oil is produced - dollar may weaken which drives up all essential prices including oil.

-- Bill P (, November 11, 1999.

Dick Moody - I sincerely appreciate the time and effort you put into your post, thanks. The NASDAQ disturbs me. It seems that those investors live in a world of their own. Is there anybody in the world that could predict that kind of run up? How could Russia defaulting on there debt have such an impact on our stock market and the specter of Y2K have none at all? The possibility of interest rate hikes put a large dent in the market but the possibility of a global economic disruption - nothing, cause to celebrate it appears.

-- Guy Daley (, November 12, 1999.

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