Just got my Action2000 "all is well booklet", which will be shortly be received by every household in the UK (as far as I know, apologies to Northern Ireland readers if they get a different version, and congratulations on their higher state of readiness). There's no major surprises, revelations or admissions of failures. What I find most interesting is the very, very careful wording that Action2000 employ so that they give the clear impression that there's no problem, but they won't commit to saying so. It's usually "someone else says" that they are "fully confident". It seems to me that if you are "fully confident" then you will offer a guarantee. But then I'm not a professional advisory body. Mind you, neither are Action2000, but don't take my word for that, read the disclaimer:

"This booklet provides guidance and advice about the Millennium Bug. Because of its general nature, nothing you read here constitutes legal or professional advice. This means that you, or any organisations you work with, are entirely responsible for any preparations you make to deal with the Millennium Bug."

That's the word from the top, from Action2000, who apparently aren't a "professional" organisation. And, of course, it will be the same all down the line. It's not our fault. We promise nothing. Protect yourself. That's sensible advice, but where DOES the buck stop? Ah well, time enough for that in a few weeks.

Here's some pertinent quotes, with my thoughts in (brackets).

"The Millennium Bug has provided fraudsters with the opportunity for scams. Beware of anyone using the Millenium Bug as an excuse to ask for confidential details or to 'fix' your household appliances."

(The fraudsters are going to cancel their holidays and call up their reserves? Have Action2000 received a statement of intent from the Fraudsters Union? This is a very strange statement.)

"Because of potentially high staff costs, the price of goods and services over the millennium may increase,"

(Or because of shortages of supply, or just through profiteering and HEY, haven't you just validated that and perhaps planted the suggestion in some vendors' minds? And what goods and services are we talking about here?)

"Due to the extra Bank Holiday be prepared for some services to be reduced."

(er, what services, exactly? And what does "reduced" mean? Is my phone going to stop working because it's a bank holiday? How about my water or electricity? If you're just talking about refuse collection, why not say so?)

"[You might be able to fix your video recorder] by setting the date to 1972, as both 1972 and 2000 are leap years with matching days and dates. This workaround should only be used for domestic appliances."

(Actually not a bad piece of advice. Muted applause!)

"No organisation works in isolation. They all depend on each other for goods and services. For example a car manufacturer is dependent on the wheel manufacturer and tyre supplier, as well as the company supplying the wheel nuts."

(And the rubber producers, iron miners, smelting works, and all their distributors and THEIR suppliers... yes, they've spotted the scary bit about Y2K. So do they then go on to say "But..."? They do not. There's a simple "supply chain" pictogram, and then...)

"The Millenium Bug is not all bad news for business. Many organisations have actually helped their suppliers, customers and distributors overcome the Millennium Bug threat."

(Who has done that? Last I heard, the biggest Y2K worry of most business was that they hadn't received plausible guarantees of compliance from their partners. They're happy for Action2000 to believe that THEY are compliant, but they don't believe their PARTNER's claims. Ah well.)

"The result is not only improved relations between companies, it has also brought about a spring clean for many business networks and helped to improve their efficiency."

(Now, this is probably true, but here's the important bit: they've pointed out the problem, and they've pointed out the secondary benefits of working towards solving it, but THEY HAVEN'T CLAIMED THE PROBLEM IS SOLVED. They've given that impression, but they haven't said it.)

"Many organisations have been working for years to identify any potential problems and fix them. Tests have then been carried out to ensure any system that uses a year date has been reprogrammed or replaced and can function normally and safely."

"If your company is not yet fully prepared, there is still time left to beat the Millennium Bug. Contingency plans and work arounds can be put in place so that any problems can be minimised."

(They're in an awkward situation here. They have to say "don't panic" while at the same time screaming "For FECK'S sake, panic!" And if you "beat" the bug, then you don't *need* contingency plans. Note also that I read this as being advise to businesses to draw up contingency plans to deal with their OWN failures, but not to deal with failures in their business partners, which I consider to be a shocking oversight.)

"Your Christmas lights will continue to sparkle though the night and you'll still be able to enjoy a reviving cup of coffee the morning after. That's because the essential services like gas, electricity, water and telecommunications have successfully completed their Year 2000 programs. The industry regulators: OFGEM, OFREG, OFAWT and OFTEL have audited these preparations and independent assessments have been made. They are satisfied that these industries will provide normal services without disruption from the Millennium Bug over the Year 2000 date change."

(This bears some significant scrutiny. It looks to me as though the weasels are startiong their wriggling dance of blame shifting. Note that Action2000's highest preparation state is blue (not green as used by the financial sector), and blue means exactly and only this: "Assessment has not identified any risk of material disruption." Translate the weasel words and you're left with: "THEY say that they didn't find anything that they decided was serious enough to cause disruption beyond some threshold that they have set." Or in other words: no one's promising anything, and don't blame us. This theme is continued here by carefully stating that it's the REGULATORS that are satisfied. So don't blame Action2000 if it goes pear shaped. I am disgusted, but not surprised. And where's the reports of these independent auditors? I'm sure Taskforce2000 would like to know.)

"As with every other year, disruptions could occur, but if they do it's most likely to be due to problems caused by severe weather conditions."

(So why even mention it? Weasel, wriggle, don't blame us, we never promised it would work. It's the regulators, it's the companies, it's the weather, it's Arab cyber-terrorists.)

"...you'll be able to phone friends and relatives to wish them all a Happy New Year. ... The first hour of the New Year is traditionally very busy for phone calls. If you get an engaged tone or a congestion announcement, please wait 10 or 20 minutes then try again. Using ring-back, or automatic redial only further overloads the lines."

(Er, make your mind up. I know there are two different issues here, but these statements boil down to "No problem! But there's a problem," a common theme in this booklet. Again, I know Action2000 are in a difficult situation, but they are being neither completely re-assuring, nor sufficient informative. It's an unhappy compromise.)

"Banks ... and other financial organisations... have spend well over #1 billion to ensure they are Millennium Bug free, in order to protect your money as well as their business."

("ensure" is a rather strong word, and I really hope Action2000 have to explain that in a court at some point. Also, they are only talking about UK banks here. In most other sections, they mention the global situation. No mention of that here. I wonder why?)

"The tax office is fully prepared for the Year 2000."

(This is the first clear untruth. They've done well at weaseling so far, but they've slipped up here. The Inland Revenue are still beset by computer problems, some of which are Y2K related. If you want to argue that point, I'll be happy to refer you to my partner who works there and has to deal with the creaking disaster that is their computer system.)

"Your money is as safe as it's always been. The financial services industry is now fully confident that your finances will not be affected by the date change."

(Oh. My. God. How carefully worded. Of course, they can argue that our money has never been "safe" during bank runs, so this isn't a lie. And again, "someone else" (spot the theme?) is now "fully confident" (guarantees? sorry, no) that the date change won't hurt us. Note: the date change, and only the date change. What about bank runs and stock market slumps? Wriggle little weasels, wriggle for your life.)

"And this year... [cash withdrawals are] expected to hit an all-time high... [Cash machines] will continue to operate a normal service, with more than enough cash for the holiday period."

(This is a statement of fact when it should be at best a confident prediction. I know Action2000 has a duty to prevent panic withdrawals, but I object to them pretending that they have a crystal ball.)

"The National Health Service (NHS) has been tackling the Millennium Bug since 1996. All its systems have now been checked and where necessary any problems have been fixed."

(I quote from Action2000's own web site: " The overall initial results for the health sector UK reported to the NIF on 13 July of 3% "blue" and 97% "amber".

By the NIF on 21 October the whole sector (England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) reported 100% blue status. "

So they've been working on it for four years, but they've completed 97% of their fixes in a single three month period. Make your own judgement on the likelihood of that. The figures for the emergency services are:

Police 13 July: 2% "blue" and 98% "amber" 21 October: 100% blue status.

Fire 13 July: 59% Blue and 41% Amber. 21 October: 100% blue status

Coastguard No figures available. Action2000's claim is that for all emergency services "their sytems are free of the Millennium Bug" but recent press reports show that the coastguard are still experiencing problems.

Again, make your own minds up about this last minute improvement.)

"Don't carry too much cash with you or keep large sums of money at home - the bank is the safest place for your money."

(Ding-ding-ding-ding-ding. Alarm! Alarm! I carry insurance that protects my money on my person or in my home. My bank provides no such guarantee, and neither does Action2000 or Mr Tony Blair. So... are Action2000 implying that my insurance company will not survive Y2K? Of course not, they're just trying to prevent bank runs. However, this statement is demonstrably untrue, and I trust that anyone the the UK who DOES lose money in a bank crash will remember this when and if it comes to court, Action2000's disclaimers notwithstanding.)

"To avoid the last minute rush, why not try to get most of your food shopping done early?"

(I can't argue with that advice. Here's a snippet of information for any non-doomers who've read this far. My friend works in a monster Sainsbury's distribution warehouse, and his opinion on the stock situtation is that they are running at 100% capacity - sometimes slightly over - on a normal day. Yes, I do mean OVER 100% capacity - they frequently have to destroy perishable goods because they are unable to get them to store on time. He also reckons that their problems are due to lack of loading bay and storage capacity and (ding!-ding!-ding!) regular NON-Y2K computer faults, not lack of staff or transport. He just laughs at the claim that supermarkets are going to increase their stocks until the end of the year. However, his warehouse may be an isolated case. Or maybe not.)

"The industry is now fully confident that you will be able to shop in the New Year just the same as every other year."

(Just thought I'd mention another "THEY say - but they won't guarantee" by Action2000.)

"As at any time of the year, you may find that some of the more unusual imported foods that are sometimes unavailable are temporarily our of stock."

(So... if it's usual, why mention it? Don't worry about it, becuase it doesn't indicate a problem? Or don't worry about it even if it DOES indicate a problem?)

"There is absolutely no reason to buy in extra food just because of the Millennium Bug."

(After you've stopped frothing at the mouth, look at the walking-on-eggshells wording. "just because of the Millennium Bug." So when the last minute rush starts - does anyone doubt it? - Action2000 can say "Ah ha, that wasn't ACTUALLY a Millennium Bug issue. That was just people being irrational, and you can't blame us for that.")

"You will be able to re-stock your cupboards between Christmas and New Year and again on the 3rd January 200"

(Great, so the earlier advice to shop early was wrong then? Make your mind up, Action2000. While we're on this subject, the shipping (i.e. FOOD) readiness - again from Action2000's site - have gone from:

13 July: 55% "blue" and 45% "amber" 21 October: 100% "blue".

Well, aren't we lucky that they got it all done at the last minute. Just like everyone else.)

"Road signalling systems, traffic lights and emergency roadside telephones will be fully operational throughout the holiday."

(I only mention this because they forgot to shift the blame for this one, or to disclaim it with "fully confident". Action2000 guarantees that these systems will work. Lest we forget.)

"the travel industry [has] been working ... to minimise any risk of the Millennium Bug being part of your holiday."

("minimise any risk". That's a definite departure from "fully confident". Even Action2000 won't try and intimate that travel is risk free.)

"The International Air Transport Association (IATA) is compiling information about the readiness of air traffic control systems and airports worldwide Based on the current information, they consider most airlines should be able to operate as normal over the millennium period where there is a demand for their services."

(This is about as close as they come to shrugging their shoulders and saying "I dunno".)

"At all times safety is the major priority for airlines."

(Yes, we all know that airlines only make a profit so that they can improve safety. Perhaps "... A major priority", but "THE major priority"? Who are they trying to kid?)

"The Government and the Civil Aviation Authority have also given their assurance that they will stop planes flying to, from, or within the UK if there is even the slightest concern about safety."

(By now I am just giving a bitter little laugh. I have a "slight concern", because planes fly over my house every day. So, I just call Mr Tony Blair, and he'll stop them flying? Is that the way it works? I doubt it. So who, specifically, needs to be "concerned", and what, exactly, constitutes being "slightly" concerned? But I can't find any details of that. Perhaps my version has been misprinted.)

"your flight could be delayed by the extra safety checks taken by the airline..."

(WHAT extra safety checks? As you said, sorry, as you said someone else said, they've finished their compliance checking. Haven't they?)

"...or it may take longer for your luggage to get to your destination."

(And why would that be? As far as I was aware, airlines fly luggage in the same planes as they fly passengers. Is the part of the plane and traffic control that's keeping people in the air 100% compliant, but part that's holding the luggage up isn't? What a strange message. Of course, I know they're referring to baggage handling, but even so, that's an admission that the airline isn't 100% compliant, which they are happy to imply that it is.)

"What to expect whilst abroad: Despite everyone's efforts there is no guarantee that everything in the world is bug-free."

(What "guarantees" are there that anything in the *UK* is bug-free? Platitudes and "fully confidents" only, please. But, hey, wait a minute, does that include foreign banks and foreign food producers that my bank and supermarket relies on? Bzzt, no, cease that line of thought, citizen. I only have to worry if I go to Abroadland, it seems, in which case it serves me right for putting my trust in Johnny Foreigner.)

"Have access to several methods of payment while you're overseas."

(Why? Aren't the banks all right? Didn't you say that earlier? Ohhh, that was just the *UK* banks, I see. So, are Action2000 saying that the world banking network isn't actually a network? Then, if the Bank of BongoBongo land goes down, then how will UK companies buy BongoBongo Bajooma Berries post Y2K? Bzzt, cease those treasonous thoughts.)

"A battery-operate radio tuned to the BBC World Service will keep you up-to-date with the latest news wherever you go."

(That's a pretty fecking scary statement to make.)

"Because the Millenium Bug is a global problem, computer and electronic sytems thoughout the world can be affected."

(Here it comes, wait for it...)

"Whilst the UK is amongst the most well prepared countries, other governments and businesses world wide have been taking similar steps to ensure a smooth transition into the next millennium."

(We're the best, but they're just as good?)

"UK companies have also been working with their international suppliers and partners to minimise any disruption to the supply of goods and services."

(No, hang on, Action2000 has been claiming - or saying other people have been claiming - that it will be "business as usual". Where's the "disruption" coming from that we have to "minimise"? They can't have it both ways.)

"All of the UK's front line service equipment is now millennium ready. Aircraft, ships and army equipment have all been extensively tested to ensure that they will continue to work correctly."

(And what's THAT all about? Who's threatening us? And how much of the MoD's equipment is front line as opposed to logistical? 90%? 75%? 50%? 25%? 10%? less? How long will the front line equipment keep working without the logistics to back it up? Weeks? Days? Hours? Minutes?)

"The UK's nuclear deterrent has been subject to searching examination to ensure that it is Year 2000 compliant. The MoD is confident that there is no risk of a nuclear weapons incident as a result of a Millennium Bug or any computer failure."

(Oh. My. God. OUR systems are OK, so there's no risk? What? WHAT? Hey, I wasn't exactly worried about us nuking ourselves, I was more concerned about Johnny Foreigner nuking me. And this doesn't address that issue at all. That's not "no risk".)

"All countries may not be equally prepared, and therefore no one can predict what will happen in each country."

(They are slipping rapidly here. We KNOW that all countries are not equally prepared. It's not a "may not be" issue. But you can read this as Action2000 claiming that the UK is so well prepared that they can predict what is going to happen here. Fine, let's let them away with that for now. So that means that they have predicted the effect on the UK of Y2K disruption in other countries, our trading partners. But they can't do that, they've just said so. So how can they predict what will happen in the UK? Actually, if you read this statement, there's no mention of the UK at all, Action2000 aren't claiming that they have any idea what will happen here, even if they did pretend we were isolated from the rest of the world. It's the clearest admission yet that they are just making it up as they go along. We all know that, it's just nice to see them admit it.)

"...we do rely on computers and electronic systems in our everyday lives, and not every country in the world is equally prepared for the Year 2000. Also, the New Year period is always a busy time, so you may encounter the odd hiccup. Please try to be patient, relax and enjoy the extended break."

(I am actually shaking with anger now. Action2000 is happily boasting that the UK is fine, but the rest of the world might be screwed. But that's not our responsibilty, right? And don't worry about it anyway, god knows we don't need them. How sad, how insular and self destructive. We could have worked together and come up with a proper international compliance system, but it looks like we're on the slipperly slope to finger pointing on a global scale.

And finally, I reach my conclusion. I have real sympathy for Action2000. They must feel like picking up CEO's by the neck and screaming "Get compliant and GET YOUR CUSTOMERS COMPLIANT!" but it's far too late for that now. All they can do is to say "All is well." and hope it all blows over. Remember, they are just as much in the dark as the rest of us over what will actually happen in the coming months. It's somewhat comforting that there are no public defections or leaks from Action2000 from frightened employees, but also remember that all Action2000 really do is to accept claims of compliance and write it all down. They have no resources to check these claims, so it's not really fair to blame them for naivete.

All that said, there are a couple of issues in this booklet that verge on the criminal. The advice to not stock food. The advice that your money is safe in the bank (sorry, "as safe as it's ever been". The advice that travel is generally safe. I'd have even more sympathy if I didn't detect the pervasise stench of a legal departments' careful editing of the half promisises and sort-of reassurances they offer.

Synopsis: it's neither re-assuring enough for the sheep, and not informative enough for those wishing to take action.)

-- Colin MacDonald (roborogerborg@yahoo.com), November 10, 1999

Answers

Excellent reading between the lines, Colin. Your remark about insularity is reminiscent of the famous headline during a splendid pea-souper some decades ago: "Continent isolated by fog". Le plus ca meme, etc.

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), November 10, 1999.

Great commentary Colin. Terrifying prospects eh wot? "Hey, I wasn't exactly worried about us nuking ourselves, I was more concerned about Johnny Foreigner nuking me." ROTFLMAO!!!

-- Billy Boy (Rakkasan@Yahoo.com), November 10, 1999.

Quick clarifier in case anyone takes offence. "Johnny Foreigner" is a UK term now only (publically) used by those parodying old fashioned British Imperialism and it's attitude to anyone outside the UK/British mainland/England and Wales/England/the Home Counties/Eton. It sums up the feeling I have about Action2000's tone in this booklet, and the impression that they are setting up Abroadland to take the blame for any problems the UK experiences over Y2K.

They do have a valid point that many countries are operating on a Fix On Fail (or even "Y2 what?") strategy, but they seem to miss the point entirely that we are in a global economy, so the amount of money spent within the UK is going to be cold comfort to those companies (and consumers) who source most of their trade from Bongo Bongo land with all it's embedded 1970's PLCs.

Oh, Bongo Bongo land doesn't exist either. It's a mythical 2nd world nation that the UK imports a lot of goods from. It computerised and automated much of its production and distribution in the PLC revolution in the 1970's and 1980's, but now can't afford to (or doesn't think it needs to) upgrade its systems to 2000 compliant technology. It's probably a bit like France. ;)

-- Colin MacDonald (roborogerborg@yahoo.com), November 10, 1999.

Colin, you're quite right about Action2000 not really knowing what is going to happen y2k. I got the impression from Gwynneth Flowers' last conversation with Yardeni (the 100 Day Conference) that she'd probably admit that. The point of this leaflet is to calm nerves. They know it is now too late to make the arguments for preparation on an individual level - food, cash etc. - even if they thought any of these critical areas could be seriously disrupted (which they obviously don't think anyway). Leaving aside the question of how we have arrived in this little painted corner of the room, the reality now is that any alarm raising that requires individual action would in and of itself precipitate a Y2K crises pre-rollover, regardless of what might happen next year. In and of itself this pre-y2k crises could cause widespread human suffering (not just burst the stock bubble). They are on the horns of a dilemma and have taken the decision that whatever happens after rollover, it will be more difficult to manage after three weeks of pre-y2k food riots, runs on banks, human suffering etc. that began merely in anticipation of Y2K.

-- Glad I'm not in charge (it_aint_so@simple.com), November 10, 1999.