Go to this link:

http://209.26.203.146/whatsnew.cfm

And then try to spin that waffle...

-- You Knowwho (debunk@doomeridiots.com), November 10, 1999

Answers

So...exactly what needs to be "debunked" here?

I've read it. I agree with it. And guess what else? I'm a "doomer" - at least in your narrow vision of the world.

I don't know if anyone else here will agree with me, but let me say this: I get awefully damned tired of having that label stuck to me. You wanna know what else? I don't care.

A little background on me so you can understant my perspective. I'm 32. I have a wife and 3 kids. We own a house. I drive a Buick. She works at home with the kids and I work out of the home as a [snip--employer name--per poster request--Sysop]. We bring home a modest but very livable income. We are as middle-of-the-road American as you can possibly get. So, now that you know where I'm coming from, let me tell you something else.

It's NOT about the odds. It's about the stakes. I care deeply about my wife and my kids...and my neighbors. What kind of person/husband/father would I be if I had not acted on the information that we had, and made ourselves more self sufficient (in your words - a doomer).

You can take your label...

By the way, funny thing happened this past weekend. I woke up Saturday morning to find that our gas heater wasn't working. Did I panic? Did I call the reapir man? All I had to do was grab a chunk of wood and fire up the ol' Quadrafire - and raise my finger in salute to the previous owners of the house...and to Alliant Utilities... and to every other person like you.

-- dan (dbuchner@fdxsupplychain.com), November 10, 1999.

Ahh...that infamous saying, "It's not the odds it's the stakes." So Dan, are you prepared for every high stakes disaster? How about a comet strike? That has the potential to have serious consequences on life as we know it, are you ready for it?

But go ahead and believe this saying. Me? I'll stick to realistic assessment of risks and base my decisions on that logic.

-- You Knowwho (debunk@doomeridiots.com), November 10, 1999.

Dan, don't waste your time. The trolls don't understand. Let me rephrase that: they WON'T understand. They have an undeveloped sense of consequence. Their show is for the newbies and it doesn't work because they end up looking like spiteful little minds--which they are.

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), November 10, 1999.

I'm as prepared as I can be for an event that may or may not have a direct impact on my family. Look at it this way. 20% of our parts are from overseas suppliers. Any disruption in the transportation of those parts will stop our lines. It's happened before - the Teamsters strike, the earthquake in Japan a couple years ago. Both put us down. Now, here's an even that we have forewarning of. In my mind, I would be remiss in my responsibilities as a parent / husband if I didn'r plan ahead a little bit.

It's funny how easily you people can draw a parallel between that and a comet hitting the earth.

-- dan (dbuchner@fdxsupplychain.com), November 10, 1999.

Just how does one prepare for a comet hitting the earth?

-- John Becfk (eurisko111@aol.com), November 10, 1999.

Dan, I too had the comfort a few weeks back of turning to my wood stove when my gas furnace conked out. Fortunately, the part I needed was in stock, so it was prepared within a (especially cold) week. The part is manufactured in Taiwan and could easily have been backordered due to y2k-like ramifications to the electronic industry as a result of the recent earthquake.

YouKnowwho, I too have attempted to conduct a "realistic assessment of risks". Unfortunately, my employer, my community, and my most critical suppliers are all withholding the critical information I need to hone that down. So I'm on my own to determine how to protect my very elderly parents in a very northern community this winter. It's a no-brainer under those circumstances, of course I'm preparing. At any rate, it is not up to you to decide what is appropriate for anyone else's situation.

-- Brooks (brooksbie@hotmail.com), November 10, 1999.

"I'll stick to realistic assessment of risks and base my decisions on that logic."

I love these "logic" arguments....OK big guy, you gotta ask yourself, if you have all the facts, can you see all the different perspectives about Y2k so that you can make a logical assessment of the situation.

If you can say "yes" then you're full of bullshit, the reality is no one has all the facts, not the government, not the CEO's, not the engineers. They state as much everyday, no one is giving out any guarantees. I'm with Dan...for my money he's the logical one.

-- Mabel Dodge (cynical@me.net), November 10, 1999.

You're absolutely right, it's not the odds, it's the stakes. That's why I never let my wife or my three kids onto the highway. The stakes are just too high, and the odds don't matter. Do you know that if we got hit by a car or a truck, that they could be KILLED DEAD? How can you in good consciounce let your family get into a car, knowing the stakes?

Or maybe you do factor in the odds when you make decisions.

Seriously, a word of warning: Stay off the roads the night of Dec 31 (every year), they are full of drunks that will kill you. And this year, drinking will kill a lot more people than all the Y2K problems.

-- walt (walt@lcs.k12.ne.us), November 10, 1999.

Walt...Of course we factor those odds in our decision to get on the road. And we also wear our seat belts. And have the car maintained regularly. And check the oil and air pressure in the tires.

Seems to me that you people are the ones who are shortsighted. I also resent your implied questioning of my character.

-- dan (dbuchner@fdxsupplychain.com), November 10, 1999.

You Knowhwho: nice style, good approach.

$20 bonus in Friday's paycheck for you.

-- J. Rendon (dude@with. contract), November 10, 1999.

Hey polly-boy, you said:

. Me? I'll stick to realistic assessment of risks and base my decisions on that logic.

Excuse me a momnet.....

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Polly-boy, you keep right on usin' "your" logic. 'kay? I don't mind a BIT. (Your FAMILY might, however...)

51 days.

-- Dennis (djolson@cherco.net), November 10, 1999.

Is it safe to assume, You Knowwho, that you also think the $40 million Y2K Information Coordination Center is a waste of money?

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/19991108/ts/yk_usa_1.html

White House Readies Y2K Center

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The White House lifted the veil Monday on a $40 million operations center designed to track how the world fares as it enters the technologically challenging Year 2000.

The center, in old Secret Service premises two blocks from the White House, will launch 24-hour operations on Dec. 28 continuing through the first few days of the new year or longer if conditions warrant.

Brian Kilgallen, head of the center's public outreach arm, told reporters that Y2K-tracking operations ``probably'' would continue at a reduced pace until March 15 to monitor any Leap Year complications for automated systems.

Jokingly dubbed the Y2K ``bunker'' by congressional staff members, the facility is on upper floors at 1800 G St. N.W. It will coordinate data collected by existing government emergency centers and, for the first time, the private sector.

Arrangements have been made for the sharing of centralized information by the following industries: electric power, banking, finance, telecommunications, oil, gas, airline, pharmaceuticals and retail industries.

I'm tired of seeing that it's OK for government and businesses to get prepared but not families. Prepare but prepare early.

-- Prepare (but@prepare.early), November 10, 1999.

I'll have to assume we're referring to the one about "My Y2K Mistakes" at http://www.jimlord.to/Y2KMistakes.pdf ...

Yep, read it. He admits some of his prognostications apparently didn't materialize (1999 Spike/Trigger Dates, primarily).

But the fat lady has yet to sing, right? (For the record, I don't believe that every computer error in the last year can be directly laid at the feet (?) of Y2k, either.)

Either way, he's coming out and saying that his OPINIONS were not proven to be correct. If it's someone's OPINION, that's one thing. After the fact, you can look at them and say, "Hmmmmm. Screwed up on that one, son..."

On the other hand, if all these SELF-reported "facts" (tossed forth by Kosky and apparently every CEO/CIO and government on earth) are proven to be wrong, we're going to know something ELSE, aren't we? We sure are. We're going to know either that they've been LYING to everyone, or that they're incompetent beyond belief.

I'm willing to wait a little longer to see what happens. It ain't 2000 yet, and things are just now starting to spool up. I'm prepared either way. My personal time frame to relax a little is, has, and always will be, roughly mid-March. If I eat crow at that time, fine. What's DeBunkie's hurry? One way or the other, there'll be plenty of crow for all, don't push.

Dan's the logical one here.

(BTW, I would have to agree with walt: New Year's Eve (especially THIS one) will be a REAL good time to just hole up somewhere and let the amateurs tear up the roads -- and, with any luck, their YuppieMobiles...)

-- I'm Here, I'm There (I'm Everywhere@so.beware), November 10, 1999.

Dennis:

It's unclear in my mind why you struck out as you did when someone said, "Me? I'll stick to realistic assessment of risks and base my decisions on that logic." This seems a perfectly appropriate response and one that I heed myself. In all the time I've known you, I've not seen you lash out at ME in this way.

-- Anita (notgiving@anymore.com), November 10, 1999.

Old Git, You go girl! You are always such a voice of calm and reason. It sounds like the white noise that shows up on the forum is getting to you too!. I agree with Dan's approach. By the time a newbie figures out where this web site is, they are essentially looking for confirmation that they had better do at least something in the way of preps. Some of the posters have gone way beyond the well meaning, disagreement stage. One would hope they have better things to do. Apparently not

-- Nancy (wellsnl@hotmail.com), November 10, 1999.

Anita, I was referring to the ASSESSMENT, and the "method" used. And YOU have never spoken to people with the condescending, belittling attitude of "YouKnowWho". More than anything else, THAT is what I object to (as you WELL know!)

-- Dennis (djolson@cherco.net), November 10, 1999.

Why has no polly addressed CPR's waffle?

http://www.russkelly.com/experts.html

Link

Charles Reuben. Ranking of problem:

June 1998- 8.0.

August 1998- 7.2.

October 1998- 7.0.

December 1998- 7.0.

January 1999- 6.7.

February 1999- 6.7.

March 1999- 5.5.

April 1999- 3.5 to 4.5.

May 1999- 2.0 to 3.5.

June 1999- 1.5 to 2.5.

July 1999- 1.0 to 2.0.

August 1999- 1.0 to 1.5.

September 1999- 0.9999.

October 1999- 0.75.

November 1999- 0.5.

B.Sc. (Physics,Chemistry,Biology), M.A.(Mathematics), Businessman,Dallas ..programs in 9 languages has been working with Computers for 20 years..

-- Waffles are only (good@with.syrup), November 10, 1999.

Lowering your rating scale is waffling????

Good one doom zombie, goooooooood one......

Changing with the flow is data is probably a bad thing in your book then. "You MUST keep the y2kult religion pure!" oh man! stop! my sides hurt!

-- Super Polly (Fu_Q_y2kfreaks@hotmail.com), November 10, 1999.

Oh, THERE you are, Charlie.

-- (why@rguetimeis.short), November 10, 1999.

Dan,

Exactly my point. You do everything you can with your car to lower the odds to where they are acceptable to you, then you go out on the highway, without regard to the stakes. No matter what you do to take care of your car and yourself, when you are the highway, the stakes are the same, your lives. Y2K can't kill you deader (or is that deaderer [g]) that a car wreck. So if you look at the highway and facter in the stakes and the odds, why can't Y2K be a factoring of the stakes and the odds? If it really were stakes, and not odds, shouldn't we go to Fiji, or someplace where there is no risk? I know some places in SA where they will never have electricity, and will live off the land forever. Some of those isolated tribes would never know it if they were the only poeple left alive on the planet. Zero risk, guaranteed. If the odds don't figure in at all, that is the only safe place on earth.

-- walt (walt@lcs.k12.ne.us), November 10, 1999.

You Knowwho: Jim Lord's admission of falling short is the first time I have seen ANY polly, doomer or what-have-you willing to stand up and admit a shortcoming. The majority do not have the toughness of character or morals to do this. Sad, but I guess that comes with old age and a wistfulness for a different time.

-- Neil G.Lewis (pnglewis1@yahoo.com), November 10, 1999.

This debate is really kind of pointless. Odds and stakes are all well and good, but in this instance we really know *neither*.

I am an engineer with roughly 30 years in the business in one aspect or another. I work in it now. All I can do is extrapolate from what I *know*. That is: the stuff I am working on isn't ready (and isn't going to be, the project to fix it got pre-empted {are you ready for this?} by a 'higher priority' project), most of the stuff I have worked on wasn't ready as it was when I left (and I have reason to believe that it isn't ready now), and most of the folks I know in the biz are in the same boat.

So my 'odds' are enormous, as are my stakes.

But for Andy Ray, obviously he is extrapolating from some position like 'What is all the fuss about? *I* don't use a computer, therefore everything will be okay.' Therefore, his 'odds' are zero, and, what's more, his 'stakes' are non-existent, (since there isn't any problem in the first place.)

Since if you managed to get his head out of his butt to change his mind, the ensuing implosion as the air rushed in to fill the vacuum would do more damage than the proverbial comet hitting, it is unlikely that his position will change dramatically, either. (Until sometime in January, that is, when it dawns on him that the waiter is taking an *awfully* long time to get back with that Perrier.)

-- just another (another@engineer.com), November 10, 1999.

I've never tried a Jim Lord waffle. I usually just buy the Eggos and I don't bother to address them, I just eat them, with LOTS of butter and syrup.

Just curious though, how do you address your waffle... "Good morning Waffle, prepare yourself to be eaten"?

-- Hawk (flyin@high.again), November 10, 1999.