Please take the time to ponder this concept for a moment.

Im sure youve all heard of The Butterfly Effect. In laymans terms its the magnified effect of insignificant events upon vast systems. The best-known example is predicting the weather: a butterfly flapping its wings in northern Africa could cause a hurricane in the Caribbean.

It is so very difficult to predict specific weather effects in specific locations over specific periods of time because the global atmosphere and the forces acting on it are vast and complex. Rather than having the appearance of a structured matrix (a molecule), the interrelation of individual systems over space and time produces a fluid matrixvastly more complex than we first thoughtand correspondingly much more difficult to understand, let alone predict!

The Y2K problem is very similar in scope, nature and effects. Y2K is global in scope, extremely complex and detailed in nature, and difficult to predict in effects. Again, not only technologically, but SOCIALLY.

Dont believe me:

On October 13, 1999 International Monitoring (UK) testified to the United States Senate Special Committee on the Year 2000, We believe Y2K will be the second most costly accident in historyLoss of life due to technical failures and/or civil unrest or related issues can not be ruled outThe best action we can suggest to the senate committee is a policy of broad public communication about the real potential for errors and large system failuresY2K will hit in unsuspecting and surprising ways.

On October 13, 1999 Larry Gershwin (National Intelligence Officer, Central Intelligence Agency) testifited to the United States Senate Special Committee on the Year 2000, Where effective prevention action has been taken in advance of 1 January, disruptions will likely be random, temporary, and of localized impact. In the absence of effective remediation and contingency plans, Y2K-related problems could cause widespread, possibly prolonged disruptions in vital services that could have serious humanitarian and economic consequences.

On October 13, 1999 James P. Bond (The World Bank Group) submitted a statement for the record to the United States Senate Special Committee on the Year 2000, While we do not expect, at this point, that Y2K will cause apocalyptic failures, the consensus is strong that there will be isolated cases of disruptions with serious consequenceswe acknowledge that the current status is in some cases inadequate to avoid failures, and in all countries the focus must now turn to contingency planning and crisis response.

One more little detail: in times of systemic turmoil, The Butterfly Effect is greatly magnified.

Is it possible then that The Butterfly Effect applies also to the Y2K problem?

Ive said it before and Ill say it again: the wildcard is not the predictable systems, it is the unpredictable people. Its not the wind but the rudder that steers the ship (or human willpower if you will).

Think not that you MAY have an insignificant effect the social outcome of the certain Y2K impact, but that you WILL have a GREATLY MAGNIFIED EFFECT upon everyone you meet during the social crisis we face, with outcomes beyond your ability to predict.

Please ask yourself what legacy do you wish to leave.

your faith should not rest on the wisdom of men, but on the power of God.1 Corinthians 2:5

(With a big thank you to Brian Henderson for giving me a good idea!)

-- Kurt Borzel (Kurt.Borzel@gems8.gov.bc.ca), November 09, 1999

Answers

A major part of Y2K is the butterfly effect/domino effect. This is one of the major jokers that could jump up and bite those who have completed remediation on their own systems, but who have done little or no contingency planning.

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), November 09, 1999.

Well said Kurt.

-- a (a@a.a), November 09, 1999.

Thank you Kurt! Excellent...

Mike

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-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), November 10, 1999.

So what is the *first* most costly accident - Chernobyl?

-- Joe (paraflyr@cybernet1.com), November 10, 1999.

The 'first most costly accident' was the 1914-18 War.

-- Risteard MacThomais (uachtaran@ireland.com), November 10, 1999.

Thanks for the plug Kurt, never enough chaos around you know.

 Here is my little contribution on the subject of butterflys and for the want of a nail.

 Chaos in the 21st Century (A lesson)

Speaking of chaos,,, Go Cauncks Go!!!!

-- Brian (imager@home.com), November 10, 1999.

Thank you very much, Kurt, for the main thrust of what you wrote: to ask ourselves what legacy we wish to leave. As you point out, although we may each "only" have the thrust of a butterfly's wings, we each will be making a difference in what happens around us to others and our society after rollover. That is a very empowering thought, particularly when one feels so helpless to help those around one at this point in time. Throughout these six months of awareness and preparation for Y2K I have been very keenly aware that those of us who survive will be called upon for a strength we never knew we had in order to rebuild, and to hold up the heads of those whose courage fails them.

-- Elaine Seavey (Gods1sheep@aol.com), November 10, 1999.

I'm kind of betting my two week store against us good ol' humans being a bit different from chaotic weather systems. It's my hope that we'll act to damp down bad effects, rather than amplifying or transmitting them. But I may be kidding myself.

-- Colin MacDonald (roborogerborg@yahoo.com), November 10, 1999.

Colin,

"I'm kind of betting my two week store against us good ol' humans being a bit different from chaotic weather systems. It's my hope that we'll act to damp down bad effects, rather than amplifying or transmitting them."

Sorry,

Chaos and complexity theory developed from the studies of human and life interaction with nature in complex adaptive systems, not weather. Dieter Dorner, who won Germany's highest science prize for research in human interaction in controlling systems verified experimentlly repeatedly that human interaction/reaction is more likely to accelerate catastrophe then dampen it. If you want to understand this, read His "Logic of Failure".

-- ng (cantprovideemail@none.com), November 10, 1999.

ng wrote;

"Sorry,

Chaos and complexity theory developed from the studies of human and life interaction with nature in complex adaptive systems, not weather."

This is not really true although if you go back to the Taoists, the first documented chaos managers, it is true.

But possibly the greatest find in chaos theory was the Lorenz Attractor, which was an indication of the effects of a small change in data in a system over an extended period of time. He was a meteorologist looking at forcasting with computers in the early 60s.

His observations contributed to the greatest find in mankinds understanding on how the universal order is conducted. But still we are behind the times.

A "weather man" going for coffee is another example of how the very small can influence the future in ways that still can't be defined.

Yet

Society remains blind as to the implications of this discovery. I do believe it is a possible breakdown and evolution of where mankind is going. Either that or we are going to go down in flames in our ignorance.

The finds of quantum physics are still not well understood in the complexity of modern society. Mankind is still in the infancy stage in understanding the universal order yet we pretend like we have it wrapped up.

We don't.

-- Brian (imager@home.com), November 10, 1999.