Power_Grid Date: 1999-11-09 08:40:10 Subject: If This Is True, You Will Wish You Had Prepared More Comment: I personally believe that this report is true, which is why I live on a property that has a natural gas well, 48 solar panels, 4,000 gallons of diesel, and four generators.

It wasn't enough. Last week I ordered a dozen more BP 75-watt panels.

Lights out.

This is why I have cashed in all of my retirement programs. This is why I have been running this Web site since January, 1997.

I think this is going to happen. Or worse.

No more Mr. Soft Core.

I received this from a programmer with 25 years of experience who has moved to the Rogue Valley in Oregon, the nation's most prepared y2k community.

* * * * * * * * * * *

About two months ago a man I am privileged to call a friend (Friend #1) related to me an assessment of the Y2K status of the electric utility industry. This report was passed on from his very good friend, someone well call Mr. CEO. First a word about Friend #1. He is a person of the utmost integrity, a very wise man, and a very professional individual. Hes an engineer by training, and someone who has had outstanding success in several career paths during his lifetime. He also has an in-depth understanding of Y2K and is quite capable of judging Mr. CEOs competence, not to mention the fact that as a good friend he can also assess Mr. CEOs sincerity in this report. The first time I heard what I am about to relate I was stunned.

A short time later, Friend #1 shared the same report with a few friends and me. We mumbled and stumbled for a couple of days - taken aback by the seriousness of the report of Mr. CEOs concerns. Determined to resolve with precision the accuracy of what we heard, I called Friend #1 and asked him to repeat, carefully and thoroughly, exactly what he had heard from his friend, Mr. CEO. This is an exact quote: "If we lose power in 40-60% of the country from between 2 weeks and a month; and, if we have dirty power all next year that is rationed, Ill consider that a home run." Theres no question that Mr. CEO considers that incredible prognosis his best case scenario.

Just who is Mr. CEO and why should we believe him? He is a principal and the Chief Executive Officer of a large software engineering firm specializing in work with "embedded systems", the programmable logic controllers and other devices that make so much of the modern automated infrastructure run so brilliantly. His company is well known (I first became aware of it in 2Q 98 in the Y2K context) and has over 200 teams of engineers in service today at electric, water, and gas utilities. Based on Friend #1's information I have been firmly convinced that Mr. CEO is one of the worlds most qualified individuals in this field.

Because of the incredibly devastating impact this scenario would have on our society and economy, I encouraged another friend to look into it. Friend #2 is considered one of the countrys Y2K experts. He had grown somewhat more optimistic about the status of the electric utility industry during the course of 1999, although he remained very concerned about Y2K overall. Because of his technical background and general Y2K expertise, Friend #2 is far more capable than I of evaluating the credibility of Mr. CEOs report. The fact that I encouraged Friend #2 to "check this out" is no reflection on my level of trust in Friend #1. It was simply a matter of prudent "due diligence". You might also look at it as following the Biblical principle of taking action in serious matters only on the testimony of at least two witnesses.

Well, Friend #2 did arrange to be at several lengthy meetings also attended by Mr. CEO. He has recently reported to me that: first, the quote given above indeed does represent Mr. CEOs thinking; and second, "that there is no one in the world more qualified than Mr. CEO to accurately assess the Y2K status of the North American electric utility industry."

"If we lose power in 40-60% of the country from between 2 weeks and a month; and, if we have dirty power all next year that is rationed, Ill consider that a home run." It is clear Mr. CEO is indicating that this is his best case scenario. The primary reason for this very negative outlook is that as Mr. CEOs engineers probe the situation at one electric utility after another they are encountering a much higher failure rate of embedded systems than expected. Approaching 5%, as I understand it. This is in contrast to government and industry reports of failure rates well below 1%, some suggesting rates as low as 1/10%, or even lower.

Folks, we are obviously talking about the risk of an utter collapse of the domestic infrastructure. Even if things are not as severe as Mr. CEO thinks, it still represents an enormous risk to the lives of many, many people, and threatens, at least for some protracted period of time, the modern American way of life. Perhaps not "The End Of The World As We Know It" (TEOTWAKI) - but much closer than any of us care to get.

Many of you may ask why you havent heard anything about all this. Why hasnt Mr. CEO come forward with his information? If he is a man of character and compassion (which both of my friends have assured me is very much the case), why doesnt he find a way to get the countrys attention. Theres a simple explanation. No question that Mr. CEO would not make such a statement unless he had ample proof, and because of the unique position of his company, these claims could be easily documented. However, theres one hitch - confidential agreements. It is likely that the service contracts between Mr. CEOs company and each utility have confidentiality clauses that prohibit his sharing information with any unauthorized persons. My guess is that Mr. CEO has anguished about whether to make this information public, but in the end decided that his integrity did not permit him to violate the contractual obligations to his clients.

When I spoke recently with Friend #1 to ask him if he approved of my telling this story, he offered another detail. You wont like it. It reveals the ugly underbelly of Y2K. The sad fact is that Mr. CEO is beginning to lay off some of his engineers. The utilities are terminating their contracts. Why? Does this mean good news? Are they "finishing" the job? Not exactly. As Mr. CEOs people identify problems at individual companies, the engineers create a paper trail that increases a companys legal liability. At least that apparently is the judgment of management at a number of Mr. CEOs clients. To make matters worse, the people being let go possess the very skills that will be required to repair essential systems come January 1st. Most utilities do not have the in-house personnel necessary to execute an efficient "fix-on-failure" Y2K strategy. Yet this fix-on-failure approach appears to be the meaning of "Y2K-ready" in some of the electric utility industry.

If you couple this devastating information with the equally troubling reports continuing to surface about likely problems throughout the worlds oil and gas industry, you can only cry out - "God help us!" Because we will need every bit of Divine mercy and provision available. I suggest each of us immediately commit to a fervency in our spiritual preparation and supplication. Unless we can be lifted above our human limitations and failings, we will not be capable of helping others in the way we have intended.

-- buzz (lights@out.fornow), November 09, 1999

Answers

I've always had a problem with those "friend of a friend" documents. My one observation regarding this document would be the curious situation that while "his integrity would not allow him to violate his contractual obligations", that same integrity would allow his conscience to keep such information private (in the face of the pending disaster). Would his integrity and conscience allow him sleep knowing he could have provided information that could have helped people in the face of this disaster?

Something smells funny here...

-- dan (dbuchner@fdxsupplychain.com), November 09, 1999.

buzz

don't add additional words when quoteing someone else...it isn't correct.

-- don,t add (words@correct.com), November 09, 1999.

Let me correct myself:

"his integrity did not permit him to viloate the contractual obligations"

(thinking there are too many lawyerly types in this world...)

-- dan (dbuchner@fdxsupplychain.com), November 09, 1999.

...methinks the guys and gals over at debunker are having some more fun with "Gary Wrong" - another bogus friend of a friend stuff that Scary Gary laps up...what a stooge...

-- Y2K Pro (y2kpro1@hotmail.com), November 09, 1999.

Dan- I was refering to buzz' addition of the following comments by Gary which do not appear in Gary's text...

It wasn't enough. Last week I ordered a dozen more BP 75-watt panels. Lights out. This is why I have cashed in all of my retirement programs. This is why I have been running this Web site since January, 1997. I think this is going to happen. Or worse. No more Mr. Soft Core.

-- sorry (forthe@confusion.com), November 09, 1999.

BOY am I tired of anonymous warnings.

Come on. If we're facing a real disaster, SOMEONE has to have some balls. If lots of people are really going to die, SOMEONE has to stand up & speak openly. Are we supposed to believe that these CEOs are more afraid of law suits than they are of millions of people freezing in the dark? This does NOT add up.

-- gag (whats@that.smell), November 09, 1999.

I heard essentially the same sumation; (but just a little more doomier than the one above), a little over a year ago at a meeting in Houston,Tx. Which resulted in my decision to go on an open ended sabatical.

And since then...I have been a little...

Shakey~~~~~~~~~~~in_a_bunker@forty.feet

-- Shakey (in_a_bunker@forty.feet), November 09, 1999.

So what are they going to do at this point in time? Tell folks in the US that they will likely not have heat or water come 1/1/00?? That the fod supply chain might come crashing down? that oil and gas, if avaialble will be mighty pricey? What good will it do at this point anyway? If it's gonna happen, it's TOO LATE.

It's similar at this point, to knowing that a meteor was expected to impact the Atlantic Ocean in 2 weeks- that's just an example- I am NOT predicting this BTW. What could the gov DO at this point about that anyway? Evacuate the entire East coast of the US?? To where? And how? They have played the game that not much will happen, and it will just be a BITR, and now, we can only sit back and see if they were right or not.

-- farmer (hillsidefarm@drbs.com), November 09, 1999.

Re the higher rate of failure of ES than is generally reported. This figure, "approaching 5%", is on the low end of a spectrum spread as was reported last summer by a remediation firm, first put on Usenet csy2k by Paul Milne. If I remember correctly no one actually debunked this company's report, even though it did raise quite a storm.

-- Mitchell Barnes (spanda@inreach.com), November 09, 1999.

Instead of concentrating on doubts, disbelief, squabbling, etc,

WE ARE TRYING TO PREPARE !!!

Every tiny bit helps. Gonna die trying.

This is NOT the 1st report like this. Lengthen your memories, Yourdynamites!

Electricity: Kiss It GoodBye For A Long Time

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), November 09, 1999.

gag,

I think it comes down to the point that NO ONE is 100% for certain what will happen. My guess is that it is similar to a car accident. You see two car's heading for each other at 100mph speed. They have no way of going left or right and you know their brake's are shoddy. But how shoddy are they...??? Will they fail...? Will they bring the car's to a stop...? Will only one of the car's stop...?

As long as there is the possibility that both car's stop people will be quiet and not say anything. What if they are wrong. They would have violated their employeer's trust and be hard pressed to find a equal or better job in the future because of it.

So, be quiet. Hope that both car's will stop in time and look the other way.

Kinda like germany in the mid 30's. It's happening to some other people. They surely wouldn't be so blatent about it. They would not have the guts to lie to us... would they...???

-- STFrancis (STFrancis@heaven.com), November 09, 1999.

What short-sighted pollyannas like y2kpro can't seem to comprehend is that the embedded systems are only one way the lights CAN go off. It is real, it has been documented by anyone who care to read Paula Gordon's excellent white paper on embedded systems, or Rich Cowles, or Roleigh Martin, or Ed Yourdon, or even Dick Mills for that matter.

They can't comprehend that y2k is an opportunity to put the lights out. We know now that hackers in Denmark were responsible for hacking into the power company in Auckland and shutting their power down. Does anyone think it's possible that computer terrorists are just waiting for y2k to do the same thing here? Has Sec. of Defense Cohen ever said anything about the possibility? Duh

If you don't prepare you are a fool. Proverbs 27:12 - "The wise see danger coming and prepare, the foolish sees danger coming, does nothing and pays the consequences." I would add "...and the hardheaded don't even see the danger coming and pay the price of the fool."

-- BB (peace2u@bellatlantic.net), November 09, 1999.

Well, I didn't add any text to the wording, FWIW. And second, even though this is a friend of a friend, I know for a fact that officials are not going to go on record with the truth. And I'm sure they really do know what's going to happen. This 'we don't know' bs is just that.

Buzzzzzzzz

-- buzz (say@what.notme), November 09, 1999.

Scary? Sure. But you simply cannot put too much weight on this because there's nothing here that can be verified.

Take a deep breathe. Could it be true? I suppose. Could it be made up? Yes, it sure could. Could it be someone deliberately yanking Gary's chain? Yep. How can we know for sure? We can't.

But for the sake of argument, let's just imagine for a moment that it were true. Exactly what difference would it make at this late date? How would it change anything that you've done or not done?

You've already made your decisions with respect to Y2K and you've either addressed the percieved challanges head on or you've concluded that there's nothing in Y2K to warrant any real concern. You are prepared to accept the consequences of your decisions.

If Mr CEO is real, he should have come forward a long, long time ago. Coming forward at this point in time does no good whatsoever. And if Mr. CEO is only a shadow, this too will be revealed shortly.

-- Arnie Rimmer (Arnie_Rimmer@usa.net), November 09, 1999.

I was given the following information yesterday from a very reliable source within the preparation supplies industry. I myself can not prove this, so names will be left out.

Two very big personalities in the Y2K arena have just put together large deals to market long-term storage food for the next two months. I was told to watch for increased volumes of bad news coming from both of these individuals. One is a compass point and the other is a hotel chain.

Myself, I have never paid a lot of attention to either of these two people but it would be offensive if their news output was designed for the sole purpose of selling products for personal gain. Pay attention and draw your own conclusions.

-- Truth (at@the.ready), November 09, 1999.

If Mr CEO were to come 'out of the closet' with his opinion and what- ever facts, How would the regular media treat him and his story?

The storyline for the public is a 3 day storm, haven't you read!

He goes public, his company goes down the tubes with all the employees and joe sixpack does not care a bit.

He may not be that stupid or naive as some people are.

-- Not Naive Either (Long@timeLurker.com), November 09, 1999.

This post describes one and only one real company and real CEO I have worked with. I havn't talked with him recently, but I believe the post. He is an engineer - unusual for a CEO.

I have had them do embedded work.

The part about probing one electric utility after and encountering a much higher failure rate of embedded systems than expected is true.

The part about confidentiality agreement is true.

The part about laying off engineers is true.

The only question I have is he, like me, too close to the problem.

-- ng (cantprovideemail@none.com), November 09, 1999.

[Reaching down into a card board box at my feet] Behold I have THIS! [A 10 watt solar panel.]

I don't think I am in any danger of my home being lit up like a Christmas tree in the midst of vast darkness.

-- Paula (chowbabe@pacbell.net), November 09, 1999.

BB: Hackers in Denmark brought down the power system in Auckland? Really? Ill let Malcolm handle that one. However if you look at the credentials and real world experience in the people youve named you can see they, with the exception of Dick Mills, fall short of actually knowing anything based on experience in the field.

As for not knowing what will happen. That is true and will be true on March 15, 2009. No one knows what will happen then either.

-- The Engineer (The Engineer@tech.com), November 09, 1999.

Engineer: Have Malcom answer this while he's at it.

=====================================================================

Senior Pentagon leaders were stunned by a military exercise showing how easy it is for hackers to cripple U.S. military and civilian computer networks, according to new details of the secret exercise.

Using software obtained easily from hacker sites on the Internet, a group of National Security Agency officials could have shut down the U.S. electric-power grid within days and rendered impotent the command-and-control elements of the U.S. Pacific Command, said officials familiar with the war game, known as Eligible Receiver.

"The attack was actually run in a two-week period and the results were frightening," said a defense official involved in the game. "This attack, run by a set of people using standard Internet techniques, would have basically shut down the command-and-control capability in the Pacific theater for some considerable period of time." . . .

The secret exercise began last June after months of preparation by the NSA computer specialists who, without warning, targeted computers used by U.S. military forces in the Pacific and in the United States.

The game was simple: Conduct information warfare attacks, or "infowar," on the Pacific Command and ultimately force the United States to soften its policies toward the crumbling communist regime in Pyongyang. The "hackers" posed as paid surrogates for North Korea. . . .

According to U.S. officials who took part in the exercise, within days the team of 50 to 75 NSA officials had inflicted crippling damage.

They broke into computer networks and gained access to the systems that control the electrical power grid for the entire country. If they had wanted to, the hackers could have disabled the grid, leaving the United States in the dark.

Groups of NSA hackers based in Hawaii and other parts of the United States floated effortlessly through global cyberspace, breaking into unclassified military computer networks in Hawaii, the headquarters of the U.S. Pacific Command, as well as in Washington, Chicago, St. Louis and parts of Colorado.

"The attacks were not actually run against the infrastructure components because we don't want to do things like shut down the power grid," said a defense official involved in the exercise. "But the referees were shown the attacks and shown the structure of the power-grid control, and they agreed, yeah, this attack would have shut down the power grid." . . .

The attackers also foiled virtually all efforts to trace them. FBI agents joined the Pentagon in trying to find the hackers, but for the most part they failed. Only one of the several NSA groups, a unit based in the United States, was uncovered. The rest operated without being located or identified. Link: http://209.160.96.101/gertz.htm

-- BB (peace2u@bellatlantic.net), November 09, 1999.

Hamre's testimony

A sobering speech by someone who has no field experience either, but knows what hackers can do.

-- BB (peace2u@bellatlantic.net), November 09, 1999.

BB: I tried your link and it didnt work. Maybe the hackers got to it?

First there arent any systems that control the power grid for the entire country. Every time I see something like this its so obvious that its written by people who dont understand how the system(s) work. Anyone whos been in the business for any length of time can see this is BS from miles away. Or kilometers if you prefer. There is no such thing as the power grid control. Its both simpler and more complex than that. Also certain parts arent connected to the public phone network system so cant be gotten to from the outside.

-- The Engineer (The Engineer@tech.com), November 09, 1999.

Engineer,

You can't even point and click and you want me to listen to you? Go on give it another try.

-- BB (peace2u@bellatlantic.net), November 09, 1999.

Engineer,

I guess Deputy Secretary of Defense Hamre is full of BS too. I guess he just doesn't know what he's talking about.

I'll think I'll take his word over yours if you don't mind.

-- BB (peace2u@bellatlantic.net), November 09, 1999.

BB here is your original link. http://209.160.96.101/gertz.htm Try it. This is what you get.

HTTP Error 404 404 Not Found The Web server cannot find the file or script you asked for. Please check the URL to ensure that the path is correct. Please contact the server's administrator if this problem persists.

This is your second link: http://www.defenselink.mil/news/Aug1998/t08121998_t072198.html

I pasted the following off of it.

Now, why are we so vulnerable as a country? We're vulnerable because of the enormous productivity improvements that we've sought through information technology in the last 20 years. You're familiar with the SCADA system, Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition Systems?

These kinds of systems are used to control physical networks, for example remote switches on a power grid that will open additional switches or bring on new transformers or sensors, valves and pumping stations that are used to regulate the flow of oil through a pipeline. These systems are used for water irrigation systems in the west. America's infrastructure is being run now through these Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition Systems, SCADA systems. They're commercial systems.

Increasingly, American business, in order to save money and to shed itself of the cost of proprietary networks, is moving these systems onto an Internet-based communications network. So we're finding increasingly, America's business and utilities are controlling the infrastructure through a technology that was never designed with security in mind.

Nice speech but not quite true. SCADAs, as far as the grid are concerned, are working on propietary networks and have no link to the outside world. I cant speak for all companies but I know a few. Second, moving the system over to a web or internet based system may be in the future it isnt here yet. Third even if you had an internet type of look or feel to the system you could still do it via a proprietary communications network. Lets just say that when he says they made them prove they could do it the question to ask is who did they prove it too? Someone who understands how it works or some one who thinks they know. Also SCADAs are different from company to company so what might work for one company wouldnt work for them all. You also have to take into account that not everything is on SCADA and that SCADA can be turned off and not affect the way the grid operates. Id need more proof than just they said they could do it.

Let's say you mount an attack on company A. You would have to select and open each switch. Don't you think they might wonder what is going on when the breakers start to open by themselves. Even if you had a DBC (Dead bus clearing) it isn't at all stations.

-- The Engineer (The Engineer@tech.com), November 09, 1999.

Engineer,

This is not directly Y2K but what is your opinion about possible terrorist actions to our electric grid.

Here in the west we had a high wind blow some high tension stuff over onto a transformer station. The station was out for almost a week and so was the power to a lot of homes and businesses. That was storm related. Could terrorist types damage large amounts of our grid by damaging only a small part of it like the storm did.

wally wallman

-- wally wallman (wally_yllaw@hotmail.com), November 09, 1999.

You are right that the first link no longer contains the data. Sorry. I took the information from my own files. The information is linked to what Hamre says in the following link.

The reason I put the link there was because I didn't want to cut and paste parts of it. Those reading just your quote will not get what Hamre was saying in full.

You obviously work in the power industry. You may even be Dick Mills.

What you cannot do is say things will be fine on Jan 1st. There are big chances that major disruptions will occur. It is prudent to be ready and prepared in case. What is wrong with having insurance?

To say that Jan 1, 2000 will be no different than March 9, 2009 is not dealing with the real world.

I have another link I'll look for later.

-- BB (peace2u@bellatlantic.net), November 09, 1999.

The link works for me. :-)

-- Gayla (privacy@please.com), November 09, 1999.

Wally,

Obviously yes, if you know what you are doing. Dr.s make great murders. They know the body so well. Whether they could get away with it is a different story. Let's face it most of these people who run around blowing things up are not the brightest. Even the Unibomber got caught and he was very isolated and solitary. Tim McVeigh (sp?)got caught almost at once.

BB: Im not Dick Mills. The answer is yes it is the same and no its not. Obviously there is more uncertainty at that date but on the other hand aging equipment (and an aging workforce, me included, shortages of generation and transmission may be more important down the road. Dont misunderstand me. I am not against being prepared. Power goes out all the time due to storms, trees, and yes even squirrels. If you live in the country it makes sense to have a generator if youve lost power for a few days due to a storm. It doesnt make sense to spend thousands of dollars if you live in a city or suburb and have only been out for a few hours at any one time. I have friends who live in the boonies who have generators. But they brought them years ago and because they have been out of power due to snow and ice storms. I know of no one who is buying one for Y2K who works in the industry.

-- The Engineer (The Engineer@tech.com), November 09, 1999.

Hey Engineer; you say "I know of no one who is buyung one for Y2K (generator, that is) who works for the industry".....I DO!!!!!!!!!!! I have a very close personal friend who is a district manager for a large power company that will remain nameless here for reasons I don't think I really need to go into. When we first heard of Y2K in 1997 we went to our friend and asked him what he thought about the whole situation. He was pretty much a DWGI at that time and we did what we were going to do anyway. When we decided to order our generator in Feb. of this year we went to him again to find out how to hook up without frying a lineman if they had to work on the lines. He asked if this purchase was for Y2K and we told him YES it was and believe this or not he then asked us to order one for him too. That said enough for me!!!!!!!!!!!

-- Mom (MotherHen@Gathering her chicks.com), November 09, 1999.

I'll vouch for what BB has posted: I read a version of it originally as an online Reuters, Yahoo, or AP news article in the summer of 1998. I also suspect that the NSA and Pentagon have plenty of engineers, technicians, and computer analysts they can draw upon to advise them professionally upon such matters. But if "the Engineer" knows something those boys don't, I suggest that he get in touch with them immediately (using his real name, of course) and tell them to stop wasting taxpayers' money on such games. He also needs to contact Georgia state rep. George Grindley (head of that state's Y2K committee in the legislature) and let him know that what high-level power company officials have told him (about the ease with which cyber terrorists could take down parts of the grid) is completely misinformed. Mr. Grindley's email address is grindley@mindspring.com and I'm sure he could use all the good news he can get.

-- Don Florence (dflorence@zianet.com), November 09, 1999.

Now don't everybody jump on me at once. I'm simply posing this question to see what others think. We know that this administration and most likely even previous Republican administrations (I'm a Republican but know how the game is played...grin) know how to set up a good SPIN. You don't just blurt out something without tossing a few goodies out into the rumor mill. Isn't it possible...just possible mind you...that this and stories like it are setting us up for the, "what y2k problem? This is the cyberterrorism/hacker problem we've been telling you about." dish sure to be served well into 2000. I'm not talking conspiracy here...at least no more than plans for covering lots of butts if there's problems of any consequence in the near future.

Be gentle now fellas...I'm a lady.

beej

-- beej (beej@ppbbs.com), November 10, 1999.

BB, your comment on the Auckland, New Zealand, power outage being caused by hackers is rather strange. The Auckland Central Business District was supplied by 4 cables at 110KV. Two gas filled and two oil filled. They were each rated at 100 KVA, but the demand was close to 400 KVA when one cable (installed in 1955) failed. The resulting overload soon caused each of the other cables to fail. A full rport is available at: Report to the minister of Energy

I would love to know just how any hackers were able to cause a heat wave in Auckland during a prolonged drought and hence cause cables which were already well over there rated life span to fail.

Malcolm

-- Malcolm Taylor (taylorm@es.co.nz), November 10, 1999.

Sorry, It appears that the link didn't come through properly, so here it is again: Report to the Minister of Energy

http://www.executive.govt.nz/minister/bradford/power/summary.htm

-- Malcolm Taylor (taylorm@es.co.nz), November 10, 1999.

Nothing wrong with those ideas beej but....

I think Hamre, and Cohen, are concerned about both, y2k and cyberterrorism. I believe cyberterrorism on Jan 1 is a very real threat. Do I think Ko shinem, Gore and co. will blame their failures on that....you bet ya.

-- BB (peace2u@bellatlantic.net), November 10, 1999.

Mom, Question. Does he still feel that way? You said you went to him in February 1999. Its now November. Is he still worried? Why?

Don,

The question is what do they know, and do they really know it. First of all there really isnt any single computer the controls the grid or that controls SCADA. Every company has their own and they control their own equipment. So youd have to hack each one and if they are different you have to use their own protocols. If you use protocol X and the companies SCADA is using protocol Y you are out of luck.

Second SCADA is not automatic but requires as operator to initiate a command. You have to select a piece of equipment and issue it a command. I suppose you could hack the protocols and program a computer to start to issue orders for different equipment however you would have to select each one, issue the command, and then issue the check back command. Then select another piece of equipment and so on. It could be done but the question is would it bring down the entire grid? Lets just say Im doubtful because I think someone would pull the plug before it went to far. You cant just break in and issue an open all breakers or shut everything off command. It dont work that way. Also, at least in my company, one SCADA controls certain equipment and another SCADA controls other equipment.

Another scenario would be to set up a computer to emulate a SCADA controller. Again its possible but it would be slow. Even if it worked it wouldnt harm any equipment. Operators would be sent to the station, put the station on local control and bring it back up. Also certain commands can only be issued if certain conditions (like no voltage or hotline check) exist. So issuing a command where these conditions dont exist would not cause anything to happen. You have to understand the system as well as the computer part of it.

And again this is only for those whose SCADA and other systems are over public phone lines. Utilities using their own communications channels would be much more difficult.

What makes me skeptical of the speech is where he said that they went out and purchased everything off the shelf. SCADA protocol manuals are not something available at COMP USA or Radio Shack. Neither are schematics of how the system is put together. You can find some SCADA information on the web but not the system information.

-- The Engineer (The Engineer@tech.com), November 10, 1999.

Hello Folks,

My only question about this is why would Gary lie about something like this, especially when the truth is only 6 weeks away? What is to be gained this late in the game? Maybe I am not seeing something here.

-- Sharon (sking@drought-ridden.com), November 10, 1999.

sharon:

Gary isn't lying. He's posting a "friend of a friend" letter that he's predisposed to believe, or else hopes that you'll believe it. Remember that North is a master of plausible deniability. He's really really good at creating the desired impression without ever, quite, saying anything that can be pinned on him. If he turns out to be right, he can claim he was right. If (as always in the past) he's dead wrong, well, *he* didn't actually, personally say *any* of those things, see?

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), November 10, 1999.

Most people don't think of gas companies as prime targets for hacker attacks -- defense contractors and software companies usually figure higher on the list. But gas companies are starting to figure out that they're vulnerable to computer attacks, and this makes them a little skittish. . . .

To swap reassurances and war stories, representatives from about 60 companies gathered in Washington, D.C., this week for a "cyber-security" confab sponsored by the Institute of Gas Technology. At risk from hackers, terrorists or disgruntled employees are electronic systems that do everything from directing well drilling to regulating pipelines and compressor stations. Worse, disruptions in gas delivery could mean brownouts or blackouts. Seven states -- including some of the largest -- rely on natural gas for more than 30 percent of their electricity generation as of 1996. . . .

What about surviving past January 1, 2000? You might think that given the high-tech theme of the meet, the Y2K problem would figure prominently. Not so. It came up during questions, but there were no presentations devoted to it -- proving, maybe, that these companies have yet to enter the post-heavy-machinery era after all. Link: http://cgi.pathfinder.com/netly/0,2326,201980715-14043,...

-- BB (peace2u@bellatlantic.net), November 11, 1999.

-- (my@oh.my), November 11, 1999.

China gears army for cyber-war From China correspondent LYNNE O'DONNELL 10nov99

CHINA is planning to pour billions of dollars into a high-tech upgrade of its army to prepare to fight a future war in which software beats manpower.

Amid growing tensions with Taiwan, which Beijing regards as a renegade province, the new emphasis on cyber-war represents a policy U-turn, reversing decades of military planning.

China's armed forces recently completed their first full-scale simulation of a virtual war, involving hundreds of officers from artillery, airborne and armoured divisions.

An official report on the exercise said air and ground troops split into two teams to plan strategies and fight under extreme conditions. The computer decided the winner.

The first foray of the People's Liberation Army into cyberspace was to sabotage the Internet sites of Beijing's political opponents.

The Taipei Government and the outlawed quasi-religious organisation Falun Gong have reported that Chinese hackers have attacked their information pages with pro-Beijing propaganda.

After Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui said in July the two sides should deal with each other on a "state-to-state" basis, mainland hackers broke into Taipei networks thousands of times, Taiwanese officials said. In response, Taiwanese operators have hacked into the Web sites of government agencies in Beijing, including, according to one report, the tax office and the Rail Ministry.

Taipei's Ministry of Defence says the PLA could gain superiority in electronic warfare within five years.

"With their efforts devoted to the improvement of electronic warfare capability, the Chinese communists are expected to pose a threat to Taiwan in 2005," the ministry said.

Western military analysts have expressed concern about Chinese attempts to develop cyber-war capacity. Dick Clarke, of Washington's National Security Council, said an electronic Pearl Harbour was a realistic prospect.

"We could wake up one morning and find a city, or the country or a section of the country without power because of a surprise electronic warfare attack," Mr Clark said.

Chinese companies, many of which have strong links with the PLA, have been eager to acquire the latest computer technology developed by US companies. The FBI has reported that some of this equipment is being used for military purposes.

A recent book published by two Chinese air force colonels lists 24 formulations in which China could use tactics outside the conventional handbook of war to infiltrate and weaken an opposing country.

Political and economic chaos could be created by hacking into or destroying computer systems with viruses, with terrorist acts or through biochemical warfare, the colonels say.

Military strategists have also outlined plans to use the Internet and the global financial system as weapons of disruption against the US, western Europe and Japan.

-- BB (peace2u@bellatlantic.net), November 11, 1999.

New Year fear: Y2K or terror? Serious threat of cyber-attacks disguised as Y2K failures

By David M. Bresnahan ) 1999 WorldNetDaily.com

Is it the Y2K bug, or is it a terrorist attack? That may be the question government officials will be asking themselves on New Year's Eve.

Computer-based attacks by terrorists take place every day, according to a leading senator. But top government and corporate computers are not adequately protected against cyber attacks.

"There is the possibility that a terrorist organization could disrupt a major computer system and make it look like it was Y2K-related," said Sen. Robert Bennett, R-Utah, in an exclusive interview with WorldNetDaily.

Sen. Bennett has been warning businesses and individuals of the potential hazards of the Year 2000 computer bug in his role as Chairman of the Senate Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem. Now he believes that America's enemies are planning a cyber attack that could bring down America's infrastructure.

"They could attack by causing disruptions that appear to be Y2K-related when in reality they are not," Sen. Bennett explained.

The Department of Defense has held top-secret briefings on the subject, and Sen. Bennett has been a participant in those meetings. He was not able to provide details of the discussions, but did say that computer attacks against the United States government take place every day.

Bennett also stated that the threat of a major disruption is very real, and that government and private industry computers are extremely vulnerable.

The General Accounting Office also has issued a strong warning about the dangers to government computers.

GAO computer experts were able to penetrate over 20 government agencies' computers in a recent security test. Jack Brock, director of government and defense information systems at the GAO made the admission to the Senate Judiciary Committee last week in a hearing.

The GAO was able to penetrate the Departments of Defense, Agriculture, Veterans Affairs, and others. Brock said most of the computers at government agencies lack adequate information security management procedures.

The Department of Defense claims they have begun to improve intelligence operations and assigned technologists to upgrade defenses of the nation's crucial computer networks.

Intelligence agents now believe rogue nations and terrorist groups are planning either to take advantage of Y2K disruptions to steal electronic information, or even to create what appears to be Y2K-related disruptions to hurt the U.S. economy.

Rogue nations with a desire to hurt the United States could use cyber warfare to disrupt computers that control infrastructure systems. Even if computers are all Y2K compliant in time for the new year, cyber-terrorists could cause shutdowns of electricity, phone service, air travel, shipping and banking.

"It's not likely, but it is possible," said Sen. Bennett. He believes the threat is real, but also expressed faith in the ability of the U.S. to defend itself against the attacks.

Security and intelligence forces teamed up for a top secret planning meeting last week, called "Preparing for the Cyber War." Top experts participated from the FBI National Infrastructure Protection Center and the Joint Task Force for Computer Network Defense (JTF-CND), which organizes the defense of DOD computer networks and systems.

The meeting reportedly included classified discussions on intelligence, law enforcement and counterintelligence. They also reviewed the JTF-CND Year 2000 Operations Plan, according to sources.

Another separate top-secret meeting was held last week by the Defense Intelligence Agency's Information Warfare Support Office. It was discussed how the intelligence community will both collect and share information on cyber-attacks during the Y2K rollover period. The entire meeting dealt with cyber-attacks and threats related to Y2K, according to information released by DIA.

Concerns also have been expressed that some foreign companies have been hired to fix the Y2K bug in many government agency computers. This breach in security has given enemies of the United States an opportunity to obtain access to government computers at any time. It also has provided an opportunity to plant computer viruses that will cause problems at a future time, such as on Jan. 1, 2000.

Many government agencies have sent orders to change all passwords and access codes to try and thwart such efforts. Official memoranda already have been sent and the changes have been made.

But it is not government computers that some terrorists will be going after. Osama bin Laden has been quoted in London and Israel papers as having a much different target. He reportedly has ordered his forces to shut down American banking, communications, power and transportation systems.

Such a shutdown could be accomplished using cyber-terrorism, and could be made to look like a Y2K failure.

-- BB (peace2u@bellatlantic.net), November 11, 1999.

North has to post "friend of a friend" letters on energy because he has no other option. He is an educated historian who tries to pass himself off as an economist and who's only real core interest in life is an obscure form of fundamental Christian zealotry. It's not as if he has the first damn clue of his own to share...

-- Paul Neuhardt (neuhardt@ultranet.com), November 11, 1999.