Canadian Airlines Cancel Flights at Rollover

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Airlines cancel Y2K flights Demand 'not there' as cautious Canadians stay home for holidays Zev Singer The Ottawa Citizen

When it comes to airplanes and the Y2K new year, Canadians are just not taking the chance. That's why both Air Canada and Canadian Airlines are cancelling most of their flights scheduled any time near midnight of the new millennium.

Air Canada spokeswoman Laura Cook said her airline has scrapped most of the flights in the hours leading up to midnight and through much of New Year's Day. "We adjust our schedules to respond to changes in market demand," she said. It's not that the airline isn't ready to deal with the big Y2K moment, she said, but the demand simply isn't there. In particular, from 6 p.m., Dec. 31, until noon Jan. 1, very few people want to fly.

Renee Smith-Valade, spokeswoman for Canadian had the same story to tell. "This is not a typical New Year's booking pattern. It's not the usual load that we would normally see."

Both airlines spokeswomen play down the idea that passengers are afraid to fly. They say they attribute the low demand to a desire on the part of Canadians to be somewhere more memorable than on an airplane when the big moment comes. "You could figure that it's just a special New Year's and that people want to be with their families," Ms. Cook said.

Whether it's fear or not, the demand level is similar outside of Canada. British Airways has projected that its flight schedule will likely be reduced by 64 per cent from last year's New Year's Eve. It plans to have 20 planes in the air at midnight London time, as opposed to 55 last year.

In Geneva, Tim Goodyear of the International Air Transportation Association said that the numbers will be down across the world. "It's hundreds rather than thousands," he said.

Scheduling decisions are not yet finalized, but it is possible that neither Canadian nor Air Canada will have any domestic flights in the air when midnight hits Canada. So even Canadians perverse enough to want to be flying over their own airspace at the stroke of local midnight might not get any help from their national carriers.

"But we do have international flights, like Toronto to London," said Ms. Smith-Valade. "It leaves at 9 p.m. That aircraft is about one third full, so there is still room for those people who want to be in the air on New Year's Eve."

David Redekop, a researcher at the Canadian Tourism Research Institute, has found that not many Canadians are planning to go far from home for the millennial new year. "It's pretty much a home town affair," he said. "People aren't travelling out of the country. That's for sure." His research found that most Canadians who have travel plans around that time are staying within a few hours drive.

Inder Handa, of Handa Travel, said that he usually does good business selling tickets for New Year's Day at reduced rates. This year, there's no action. "It's a lot less than what we've had in the past," he said. "Normally, we have a lot of bookings. By now, I would usually have close to a hundred. This year, I've got around 15. The flights are wide open."

-- Roland (nottellling@nowhere.com), November 08, 1999

Answers

Link...

www.ottawacitizen.com/city/991107/3111008.html

-- Roland (nottelling@nowhere.com), November 08, 1999.


Funny thing happened last week, my friend tried to book a flight on an airline for the rollover, just wanted to see the pricing and they told him they were cancelling flights for the rollover period due to lack of interest.

Just how long before a flight do they make this decision?. I mean its about 7-8 weeks away and they are cancelling it due to lack of interest.

The way the airlines are handling it is that no matter how many people call for a flight during that time, they tell you the flights are cancelled due to lack of bookings so that no bookings get made. Therefore the airline creates the lack of interest.

-- hamster (hamster@mycage.com), November 08, 1999.


Guess they will have to cancel flights after New Years Day when they have no planes at the various airports that were not flown due to lack of interest. Airline schedules depend on the planes being moved through the system for availability for continuing 'legs' and 'next day' departures. Not only is the aircraft necessary, but the crews are also scheduled so they are in the right place at the right time. If you have ever seen the scheduling room at a major airline, the failure of aircraft or crews to move as 'scheduled' makes for an interesting day, to say the least. Can you say 'ripple effects'...

-- BH (bh_silentvoice@hotmail.com), November 08, 1999.

Where's Hoffmeister???

Hoffy - remember my prediction?????

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), November 08, 1999.


There's a certain "ripple effect" too if any of those aircraft get into trouble and need an emergency field, or lose navigation aids (at night, over the Artic and "rural" Canadian areas - do you want to fly with problems?)

Reasonable, prudent precaution.

And, if there is no demand, or even just a small demand, why fly? You're just asking them to lose money and put their passengers, planes, and crew at risk.

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Marietta, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), November 08, 1999.



"Canadians perverse enough to want to be flying over their own airspace at the stroke of local midnight..."

What a bizarre phrase.

-- silver ion (ag3@interlog.com), November 08, 1999.


BH, you've got it absolutely right!

The airlines are not canceling due to lack of interest. They are canceling because they aren't sure about safety around the rollover!

Nearly empty planes are constantly in the air, especially late at night, but they fly even with low load factors because equipment and crew need to be in place for the high volume early morning flights.

Cancelling flights, the way they are will cause havoc in the logistics of having equipment and crew in the right place at the right time.

Cancelling early, I guess they have the time to figure out what they will do.

Good reporters would be digging deep right now to ask questions about typical load factors on New Year's, as well as other late night flights. My guess is that they aren't so different this year. The airlines just don't want to have to explain away an accident.

By the way, I don't personally believe the airliners will be a problem, but rather ATC. I don't want to be in an airplane that's low on fuel waiting to be cleared for landing by a controller working manually. Jeesh....There's a scary thought!

And even a .05% chance of embeddeds on the plane causing a problem is too much for me!

It wouldn't surprise me actually, if the FAA is secretly recommending cancelation of flights. After all, didn't Jane Garvey testify that a test of all systems would occur at the rollover? She said there wasn't too much traffic in the air at that time anyway.

What a joke, she wasn't even aware that the systems all work on GMT until one of the congressmen brought it up. Alot more traffic in the air at 6 eastern, 3 western, Jane!!!!

-- Duke 1983 (Duke1983@AOL.com), November 08, 1999.


This is interesting.

The article seems to be suggesting not to fly as much as saying the Airlines aren't flying.

Personally I hope that the advice is taken. One thing though, Peter De jager is going to have a hard time flying to England during the rollover if there are no planes in the air. Maybe he is flying British Airways.

-- Brian (imager@home.com), November 08, 1999.


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