http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/19991106/tc/business_mirror_1.html

It Appears We're Ready for Y2K By JOHN CUNNIFF AP Business Analyst

NEW YORK (AP) - The decision appears to have been made, and it is that a society ingenious enough to create the computer is capable of avoiding disaster because of a few ominous zeroes.

You can tell that the decision has been made by the way people act. Consumers are spending, investors investing, and corporations completing plans for even bigger sales and revenue in 2000.

In short, as Y2K approaches, the vague but intense concerns of earlier this year, such as the fear of economic collapse, seem to have dissolved into mere concern about disruptions and irritations.

As most now understand, if only superficially, Y2K involves the ability of computers to realize we are passing from 1999 to the year 2000, not to 1900.

Maybe no decision was involved at all, just a growing sense of reassurance that the $50 billion spent by businesses and the $8.34 billion by government was enough to fix the tiny but massive defect.

True, airline reservations for New Year's week are said to be down, some families are hoarding food and water, and banks are ready for cash withdrawals, but fears of cascading disruptions are fading.

Still, opportunists will exploit the days before year's end with terror tales and rumors, and amulets, tokens, souvenirs, insurance policies and final testaments. Entrepreneurship will be alive and well.

Most likely there'll be some disruptions, even serious, but more localized rather than regional, and very unlikely on a national scale. That is, speaking domestically.

Overseas, it may be a different matter, and since we now have a global economy (oil from the Mideast, for example), certain foreign breakdowns could spread beyond national boundaries.

Still, reassurance comes from government and business: The Senate's Y2K panel, the Federal Reserve Board, Securities and Exchange Commission, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., the Pentagon, and telecommunications and financial industries, among others.

Of course, the major question involved in all such reports of Y2K readiness is to what degree these reports reflect the true situation or are designed to quell public doubts while final preparations continue.

For example, in an Oct. 15 letter to House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Bill Archer, R-Texas, Internal Revenue Service Commissioner Charles Rossotti expresses confidence his agency will be ready. But he conceded, ``We do have some trouble spots in our effort.''

But regardless of surveys and assurances, Americans may be placing more faith in their economy than in anything else.

Their faith is in companies that produced the Internet Age and that seemingly can overcome any obstacle; in the strength of their incomes and ability to spend; and in an economic advance that has trampled for most of a decade the negative expectations of self-styled experts.

That in a sense is like saying, we've faced more threatening situations and come through, so why shouldn't we just overwhelm the enemy again.

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), November 06, 1999

Answers

So, does this mean you no longer expect a Y2K recession?

-- mw (market.watcher@pseudo.nym), November 06, 1999.

I'm providing the news clip for general information. For the record, I still predict a recession in 2000 due PARTLY to Y2K problems.

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), November 06, 1999.

This is actually a very well written "feel-good" piece.

Almost good enough to believe too, if you forget about all of the outstanding unresolved issues.

-- snooze button (alarmclock_2000@yahoo.com), November 06, 1999.

Many clever men like you have trusted to civilization. Many clever Babylonians, many clever Egyptians, many clever men at the end of Rome. Can you tell me, in a world that is flagrant with the failure of civilization, what there is particularly immortal about yours?

-G. K. Chesterton

-- John Ainsworth (ainsje00@wfu.edu), November 06, 1999.

Thanks snooze button, I always wake-up when the alarm goes off and you hit snooze.

-- karla (karlacalif@aol.com), November 06, 1999.

820,000 Small businesses will not be ready. Atlanta and D.C. will not be ready.

-- Earl (earl.shuholm@worldnet.att.net), November 06, 1999.

I guess the "faith" part says it all. Man is unstoppable!! "If we put a Man on the moon, then we can beat Y2K. Yup, da yuuup .

The FDIC always tells the truth. So does the Pentagon and all those others. Clinton never lies and has never done anything not in the best interests of this country!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

"It won't be bad because we don't want it to be".

-- Gregg (g.abbott@starting-point.com), November 06, 1999.

"Whenever I feel afraid

I hold my head erect,

And whistle a happy tune,

So no one will suspect

I'm afraid!"

-- Not Whistlin Dixie (not_whistlin_dixie@yahoo.com), November 06, 1999.

Yes, and appearances are everything these days, now aren't they?

-- (dot@dot.dot), November 06, 1999.

For those who do not already know, I have prepared in every way for a 10 on the 1-10 scale. I was prepared by January 1, 1999. So, what ever happens is of no worry to me.

I also want to say that I have over the last couple of months, become alot more optimistic. I am beginning to feel that things are not going to be any worse then a 1930's type depression at the most and could possibly be more like a 1970's type of recession that may go on for three to five years. I believe the most important factor to be watching right now is oil. I believe oil, over the next two months, will ultimately determine the world financial path that we take over the next five years. Oil is showing alot of strain right now.

I am heavily invested in the metals and I also own 60 December DOW Puts in the 7200 strike price which is completely contrary to what I feel is now going to be happening in the markets. I now feel that the powers that be will keep the dow above 10000 as well as gold below $320.00 over the next 55 days. I believe sometime in the first quarter of next year after the masses realize that there will be no TEOTWAWKI, they will then allow the markets to correct to their true values. The options markets leads me to believe this. December dow puts and Gold calls are very cheap in relative terms now and first quarter dow puts and Gold calls are very expensive.

Please be prepared as if you will not be able to leave your house for the entire month of January.

Thanks for reading and may the Good Lord bless the world,

Mike

-- flierdude (nospam@please.com), November 06, 1999.

They didn't coin the phrase "Appearances can be deceiving" for nothing...

R.

-- Roland (nottelling@nowhere.com), November 06, 1999.

It's easy to write an article without research. If he'd only looked at one or two of the pieces of information we see here every day, he might sing a different tune--or not.

My own current way-bad pessimism stems from the oil chat reports. Other than that, I'd say, *oh we're only going to have a depression.* I would be so grateful for a mere financial collapse.

-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), November 06, 1999.

Ken posted

"But regardless of surveys and assurances, Americans may be placing more faith in their economy than in anything else.

Their faith is in companies that produced the Internet Age and that seemingly can overcome any obstacle; in the strength of their incomes and ability to spend; and in an economic advance that has trampled for most of a decade the negative expectations of self-styled experts."

Ken

I thought that this was an interesting comment. We have a momentum in the economy that is unhearlded. Are many putting their faith in this fact and their happyness with the status quo, rather than doing some soul searching as to the POSSIBLE effects of Y2K.

Even you have to admitt that the Y2K problem and scope is well beyond the average persons awareness, so much so that it is unlikely that many folk (even on the forum) don't have the time and resources to investigate the thousands of documents on the net and else where.

How are folks going to have a balanced view of Y2K and the risks without education? Even at this late date I feel like Flint sometimes, wondering when the picture can be seen clear enough to make decisive statements as to the likely hood of failures.

I really believe that it is not going to be TEOTWAWKI but by no means is it clear enough picture that society should be compliacent. And that is what is happening. It if tips the wrong way, the disruptions will be amplified by the complaicency of the masses.

But thinking that money solves everything is rediculous. 8.6 billion for the US Gov. Well its a big number but the Canadian Gov. spent 2 billion and we are one tenth the population of the states. That means the US should have spent 20 billion? Oh and Revenue Canada (taxes) was already compliant. We have virtually no military either.

Humm That 8.6 billion sounds a bit differant now eh?

As usual all poor spelling and grammer is a result of my poor education. Sorry Ken.

-- Brian (imager@home.com), November 06, 1999.

Brian,

I was just cruising news articles and cut-and-pasted this one. It is a postive "puff piece." In truth, it is not dissimilar to the negative op-ed articles posted here and treated like empircal research.

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), November 06, 1999.

That Russian looks like a goner for Y2K is more than enough reason to run for the hills IMHO. Infomagic? Hell, we'll be lucky not to wind with "The Stand".

-- Ocotillo (peeling@out.===), November 06, 1999.

With Russian nukes taking the place of Captain Trips...

-- Nabi (nabi7@yahoo.com), November 07, 1999.

Mr. Decker: So, what other factors do you believe will cause a recession in 2000, aside from Y2K?

-- mw (market.watcher@pseudo.nym), November 07, 1999.