Panic Data From Gartner: 67% of Americans plan to buy 7 to 18 days of food within 3 days of Jan.1

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Here's the quote from CNN

"Marcoccio was in Orlando to speak to the America's Community Bankers annual convention. He told the group that a Gartner Group survey of 14,000 people showed that 67 percent of all Americans say they plan to buy seven to 18 days of worth of food and other supplies within three days of Jan. 1."

Well, you don't have to be "eat up with smarts" to analye this data.

1. It is widely reported that there is a three day supply of food in the grocery stores. This in itself is an enormously general statement, but let's just roll with it. Say there is 300% of the daily food usage in the grocery stores.

2. 67% of the people want to buy an average of 1250% of their daily needs, that's 837% of the the total normal usage, leaving a deficit of 537% "on the shelves". (Does this make any mathematical sense at all? I have no idea.)

3. Presumably the other 33% of the people will be competing for some food, so the deficit is worsened.

4. Food companies can anticipate this rush and increase their supply of certain items to lessen or eliminate the deficit.

5. If grocery store shelves go bare, the public will reactly poorly.

Oh, you could analyze this forever, but any idiot can basically see what these numbers are saying. The numbers may have no predictive value whatsoever. On the other hand, they may be underestimating the purchasing intentions of consumers.

-- The Creosote Exxplosion! (A@Arealstickymess.com), November 04, 1999

Answers

I think it would be a *really* good idea to get one's y2k shopping done BEFORE the last week of December, in that case. Preferably before the FIRST week of December.

Leo

-- Leo (lchampion@ozemail.com.au), November 04, 1999.


So what?!

So the shelves are cleaned out by the general public in a doomer induced panic buying binge. So what? It will all get replenished by those big shiny diesel-gulping big rigs on tuesday, won't it?

Won't it? Right?

-- cavscout (myshelves@re.stocked), November 04, 1999.


Cavscout = idiot

If store shelves are emptied nationwide, it'll take WEEKS to replenish, even if there are NO failures. But guys like Cavscout can just go to Mickey D's.... Right?

-- Dennis (djolson@cherco.net), November 04, 1999.


Sorry dude(ette?)

Please allow me to apologize and extract foot from mouth...

I guess I'm getting close to the edge these days. Bummer.

-- Dennis (djolson@pressenter.com), November 04, 1999.


<<4. Food companies can anticipate this rush and increase their supply of certain items to lessen or eliminate the deficit. >>

Thats 537% of the normal flow on the same number of trucks, stock clerks, store space, etc. Ever looked in the back of a store?? They don't have 5 times the space to store the inventory to cover the 537% of normal demand. Besides, everyone's gonna be on a cruise ship any way right??

-- gary (thehargi@earthlink.com), November 04, 1999.



They are going to have to learn the hard way that procrastination doesn't work..and more.

-- OR (orwelliator@biosys.net), November 04, 1999.

Link please.

-- Jerry B (skeptic767@erols.com), November 04, 1999.

There are going to be some angry people stalking the aisles.

It wont be a pretty sight.

I expect the frustration will be evident on the freeways as well.

Gravy mix...get it now.

-- snooze button (alarmclock_2000@yahoo.com), November 05, 1999.


Hey, if they leave the smoked salmon, caviar, and fois gras alone I'll be happy. Not spending my last few days of luxuries eating spaghetti-o's.

-- Gia (laureltree7@hotmail.com), November 05, 1999.

All I can say is, I'd better be able to get a supply of string cheese, cocktail smokies and Dos Equis beer or things will get ugly around aisle 12. (Snarl!)

-- chairborne commando (what-me-worry@armageddon.com), November 05, 1999.


Dennis,

Your sarcasm detector is busted, eh? Looks like you went out loaded for troll and shot me in the ass. Oh well, we're all getting Y2Krazy; all is forgiven.

-- cavscout (victimof@ccidental.discharge), November 05, 1999.


Those who are not prepared will panic the last week of this year. Don't want to ruin Christmas do we...

-- y2k dave (xsdaa111@hotmail.com), November 05, 1999.

Jerry. I looked for the story again this morning on CNN.com and could not find it. I did a search using as much of the exact quote as possible (which was cut and pasted from the story to this thread) and the result came back negative. I apologize for not at least putting the URL in the initial thread.

-- The Creosote Exxplosion! (A@Arealstickymess.com), November 05, 1999.

I'm glad I got most of my stuff out of the way. Think I'll just stay home and avoid the stores...

-- Tim (pixmo@pixelquest.com), November 05, 1999.

just as long as the beer is there... please God, let there be beer...

-- Billy Boy (Rakkasan@Yahoo.com), November 05, 1999.


Another unfortunate hunting accident.

-- Dave (aaa@aaa.com), November 05, 1999.

Warning, Warning, sarcasm mode "on"....

So should we teach people to "Prepare to Panic" to avoid the "Last Minute Panic" and avoid the crowds who waited until it was "Too Late to Panic"?

Will they have a "pre-panic sale"?

What about the Hispanics? Are the Herspanics worse?

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Marietta, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), November 05, 1999.


Dave and Cavscot your shoot out left me OTFLMAO ;-) Thanks

-- mis (karlacalif@aol.com), November 05, 1999.

And just what is wrong with spaghetti-O's anyway? Snob.

-- Spidey (in@jam.canopener), November 05, 1999.

I got it! There can't be a last-minute panic buying spree.

See, if there is nothing left on the shelves, then they won't be able to go into a panic-buying spree because there won't be any panic's left on the shelves to buy......

The only people who could have panicked would be the ones who panicked early ("Panic early, panic often", as my mom used to say to her nine children .... and ... Never wait to panic.....It's never too late to panic... Never put off a good panic until tommorrow. ) Therefore, only the people who didn't panic and got their stuff early could have panicked, and they didn't panic, so the rest - who had to wait until it was too late to panic, couldn't panic because they were sold out of panic.

Guess the fed's have this all figured out.

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Marietta, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), November 05, 1999.


That's just AMAZING! I don;t suppose anyone here EVER thought that people would wait till the last minute!?! Get done in two weeks, folks. Get quiet.

-- ..- (dit@dot.dash), November 05, 1999.

here's the link.

-- Berry Picker (BerryPicking@yahoo.com), November 05, 1999.

I thought everyone shopped for at least 7 days worth of food. I know some folks that go to the store every other week. Depends on the pay periods. Sounds pretty normal to me.

How often do you hit the grocery store normally?

Deano

-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), November 05, 1999.


Deano:

In a GOOD month we'll get to the store (SuperK, aprox 600 metres from my driveway) about 3 times. In a BAD month we'll be there 20 or so. MANY of the folks in the area I am doomed to inhabit for the rollover (unless the Lord has a amall miracle in his back pocket, but it's gettin late) are there 1.5 or so times a day on average.

Chuck

with their foodstamp atm card in hand.....

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), November 05, 1999.


Chuck

1.5 times a day??? I can't even imagine!

I'm sure that's not indicative of the average American though....

Seems most grocery trips are right around the pay check......

Deano

-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), November 05, 1999.


Nope. Most are two-three days worth, with a bigger trip about 3-4 times a month. Most people have "stuff" available for perhaps 5-6/5-12 days MAX, but they won't like it.

(They will "run out" of some critical item long before they need any particular food item to avoid real hunger.)

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Marietta, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), November 05, 1999.


I represent a well-known industrial buying guide and 40% of our new business is signed the last month when companies have all year to figure out what they're going to do.....

Many, many people are last-minute types

-- PJC (paulchri@msn.com), November 05, 1999.


Berry Picker, Thanks for the link! ;-)

-- karla (karlacalif@aol.com), November 05, 1999.

Better them than me I reckon.

Once a week is enough to see 3 out of 18 checkout lines open.

Which brings us to the real question - why build all those checkout lanes if ya ain't gonna use'em????????

Deano

-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), November 05, 1999.


Thanks for the link, Berry, but here's what I found there:

I would like to have found that "seven to eighteen days" figure cited, as well as "within three days of January 1" - but any way you massage this data is looks like demand could annihilate the supply...

-- Grrr (grrr@grrr.net), November 05, 1999.


Grrr, Berry Picker and Jerry the Skeptic,

The quote I cut and pasted is clearly NOT in the linked article, but I am guessing that the article was rewritten since yesterday. It appears to have the same gist. Some AP stories are rewritten on the fly. Does CNN.com post work-in-progress also? I don't know.

-- The Creosote Exxplosion! (A@Arealstickymess.com), November 05, 1999.


The phrase "seven to 18 days" does not appear to have been through an editor, so this strengthens my belief that I cut and pasted from a draft version.

-- The Creosote Exxplosion! (A@Arealstickymess.com), November 05, 1999.

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