Who else is tired of this shit besides me. Bunch of people at work today bs'ing and a management type says to me "well at least you're ready for the apocolypse"...blah, blah, blah... Then my wife tonight gives me the old, where do you want to have dinner on New Years Eve? The stock market's up, inflated beyond any reasonable levels and the world is plugging it's ears and pointing at people like me and labeling them loonies. Congratulations John. You have succeeded in making it socially innapropriate to prepare....Funny...you yourself have told people to prepare as if for a three day storm, but people now laugh at me because I have prepared for a longer storm than them, and they don't want to prepare at all because it's socially innapropriate. Only loonies and survivalist wacko's prepare.

I'm tired of it. All of you people who make fun of those who are preparing are morally bankrupt. How can you possibly find humor in someone trying to save their family from what they percieve as a threat? How much time have you spent investigating the problem other than watching Geraldo? What do you know about heavy industry and the impact of multiple failures on a refining process for instance? Nothing, shit, zip, dick, squat. And yet you're so willing to believe some asshole from the API who tells you that everything is gonna be AOK. The same API that conducted a study on your behavior so that they could send the "right" message in their press releases. The same API that did a study on what the effects of the panic, WILL be. That's right, will be. 'Cause their anticipating the panic. They have no doubts about it. But will they say anything to you? Hell no. You're on your own with nothing but press releases to rely on, and the people on the inside, the deep inside have one up on you.

I wish I could help you, but you'll have to find out for yourself.

-- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), November 04, 1999

Answers

Yeah, don't knock on my door if ya ain't ready for it.

-- Porky (Porky@in.cellblockD), November 04, 1999.

hang tight. the meek shall inherit the earth.

-- mrunderhill (prancing@pony.com), November 04, 1999.

Gordon:

Amen, man!!!...couldn't say it better myself. Total disconnect form reality. Now, I know what all my staunch Mormon friends have dealt with their entire lives. I've never bought into their doctrine, but I admire their philosophies....it seems I have admired "loonies" and "wacko survivalists" for a long while now.

Shepherd

-- shepherd (mjmcinnes@aol.com), November 04, 1999.

Gordon.

In solidarity: I am so w/ you it's not funny. I wish I had read your post this aft., when I was up to my neck in Preps, Dog Hair and Lego detritus. my partner and have learned a great deal from your input here. Keep 'em coming.

Cheers,

-- silver ion (ag3@interlog.com), November 04, 1999.

Should have read 'my partner and I'. See? y2k fatigue. We've all got it.

-- silver ion (ag3@interlog.com), November 04, 1999.

Relax Gordon I understand your frustration. You are with friends here so it is ok to vent when need be, we understand.

As time passes it will be more apparent to the general public that the y2k problem is bigger than they thought. They may even realize that they have been misled. We will need to be ready to do our part, whatever that may be. We will be in a position of strength to help those who are weaker and less prepared.

We need to sustain those strengths of character that others can depend upon.

-- snooze button (alarmclock_2000@yahoo.com), November 04, 1999.

:::clap:::clap:::clap:::clap:::clap:::clap:::clap:::clap:::clap:::clap

Well said, Gordon.

A standing ovation is in order.

-- Wilferd (WilferdW@aol.com), November 04, 1999.

I second that ovation.

-- snooze button (alarmclock_2000@yahoo.com), November 04, 1999.

Gordo!

Vent baby, let it ALL out! We all know how you feel. The pollies are so G.D. smug and self-righteous, smarter than everyone else, of course. Willing to gamble that every CEO, CIO and PR shill in the country is being totally forthright and honest with the public, or even those in their own orgazition. There are a few who are telling the truth, but the overwhelming majority of them are in the CYA mode. Too much to gamble now that they're all so close the day when they can say, "well, what the F#$k do you expect; we did the best we could!". Integrity and courage are the first to suffer in the herd mentality.

-- cavscout (tiredof@llthe.lies), November 04, 1999.

Y2K REALITY CHECK: Best Case Scenario "Bump In The Road" Will Be Painful For All U.S. Citizens

OKAY KOSKINEN, YOU WANT PROOF? HERE'S AS CLOSE TO ACTUAL PROOF AS IT GETS.

From my research on the net, I have determined that embedded chips come in three flavors:

Chips that will have no problem.

Chips with problems that can be easily remediated pre or post Y2K.

Chips that will fail out-right and must be replaced or worked around.

There is a fourth flavor of chip, though not technically a "flavor" in and of itself. These are the chips that are never identified/located, are identified but incorrectly assessed/tested/evaluated, or are inaccessable or in-use in such a manner that renders them untestable. Some unknown percentage of these chips will fail. And some of those that fail will result in a catastrophic failure of the system or device they control irreguardless of whether it is a "mission critical" system in a nuclear power plant or a VCR.)

CHIPS THAT WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM

Worldwide, there are approximately 50 billion chips in use today. Most of these chips (96.002% to 97.002%) are okay and will have no problem rolling over to the year 2000. Enough said about these.

CHIPS WITH PROBLEMS THAT CAN BE EASILY REMEDIATED PRE OR POST Y2K

About 2-3% of these 50 billion chips (I use 2.5% in my calculation below) will exhibit some abnormal behavior on or about the year 2000 rollover, requiring "simple remediation by a human", such as physically re-setting the time clock of the device or system they are embedded in.

Do the math:

50,000,000,000 x .025 = 1,250,000,000

With the U.S. as the most technologically advanced country in the world, logic dictates that anywhere between 10% and 30% of these 1,250,000,000 chips are in embedded systems within the United States. (I use 20% in my calculation below.)

Do the math:

1,250,000,000 x .20 = 250,000,000

Okay, so how many of these 250 million chips (that will be impacted within the United States) are in "mission critical" embedded systems of the U.S.'s 200,000 most vital physical infrastructures? (power companies, drinking water and wastewater treatment facilities, chemical companies, oil and natural gas companies, voice and data telecommunications companies) Again, I use an overly conservative figure of 1% of these 250 million chips in my calculation below.

Do the math:

250,000,000 x .01 = 2,500,000

And finally, lets assume these 2,500,000 chips are distributed evenly between 200,000 or so individual government, public and private entity's mission critical systems that comprise the vital infrastructure of the United States.

Do the math:

2,500,000 / 200,000 = 12.5

CONCLUSION: Using the very conservative figures above, the bottom line is that each of the 200,000 individual government, public and private entities comprising the vital infrastructure of the United States must 1) locate 12.5 embedded chips hiding throughout their thousands of embedded systems, and 2) make 12.5 "simple remediations". This is the easy part unless Murphy rears his ugly head...and 1 of every 1000 "simple remediation" tasks are botched or worse, were never identified as needing "simple remediation" in the first place, possible through oversight or relying purely on vendor certification.

Do the math:

2,500,000 / 1000 = 2,500

Now we have 2,500 of these 200,000 individual government, public and private entities comprising the vital infrastructure of the United States engaged in a mission critical systems failure on or about 2000/01/01.

Apply this to the real world, with each "critical" industry receiving an equal number of "critical systems" failures:

POWER PRODUCTION & DISTRIBUTION 500 "mission critical" Systems Failures

OIL & NATURAL GAS 500 "mission critical" Systems Failures

CHEMICAL PRODUCTION & STORAGE 500 "mission critical" Systems Failures

WATER & SEWAGE TREATMENT 500 "mission critical" Systems Failures

TELECOMMUNICATIONS 500 "mission critical" Systems Failures

total 2,500 "mission critical" Systems Failures

At best, each "mission critical" system failure results in a complete shut-down, albeit temporary (because these chips CAN be easily remediated on the spot), of that individual company/organization. Remember, these chips ARE embedded in "mission critical" systems.

At worst...you begin to have the domino effect and, well...it gets ugly quick.

That was the good news, now for the bad news. In addition to all the "mission critical" systems failures listed above that can be easily remediated after they fail...add the following...

...Worldwide, an additional 0.2% of these 50 billion chips will fail outright and can not be remediated in any way. These chips (or the systems/devices they are embedded in) must be replaced or worked around prior to rollover to Y2K, otherwise the system or device they control will experience a catastrophic failure.

Do the math:

50,000,000,000 x .002 = 100,000,000

Applying the same conservative percentages as before, in these calculations, we get:

100,000,000 x .20 = 20,000,000 (In the U.S.)

20,000,000 x .01 = 200,000 (In the "mission critical" systems of the vital infrastructure of the U.S.)

200,000 / 200,000 = 1 (In each company/organization)

Now, Let's say 1 out of every 1,000 (maintaining the same ratio as before) of these non-remediable embedded chips (that MUST be replaced or worked around because they WILL fail and can NOT be remediated) has a botched remediation attempt in the work-around/replacement or is missed and never remediated.

Do the math:

200,000 / 1,000 = 200

Now we have 200 chips embedded in "mission critical" systems throughout the vital infrastructure in the U.S. that will fail on or about 2000/01/01. These chips may take from 3 weeks to 3 months to fix and until they are fixed, the company/organization literally grinds to a halt (at best).

Again, with each industry receiving an equal number of non-remediable chips resulting in "mission critical" systems failures:

POWER PRODUCTION & DISTRIBUTION 40 "mission critical" Systems Failures

OIL & NATURAL GAS 40 "mission critical" Systems Failures

CHEMICAL PRODUCTION & STORAGE 40 "mission critical" Systems Failures

WATER & SEWAGE TREATMENT 40 "mission critical" Systems Failures

TELECOMMUNICATIONS 40 "mission critical" Systems Failures

total 200 "mission critical" Systems Failures

IN CONCLUSION MR. KOSKINEN:

Using information from the Senate's 100 Day Report, a LITTLE common sense, and the (conservative) figures representing a "BEST CASE SCENARIO", I have concluded that:

1) There will be 540 "mission critical" systems failures in the POWER PRODUCTION AND DISTRIBUTION systems within the U.S. on or about January 1, 2000. Forty (40) of these will be catastrophic, requiring anywhere from 3 weeks to 3 months to design, build and install a new replacement system.

2) There will be 540 "mission critical" systems failures in the OIL & NATURAL GAS systems within the U.S. on or about January 1, 2000. Forty (40) of these will be catastrophic, requiring anywhere from 3 weeks to 3 months to design, build and install a new replacement system.

3) There will be 540 "mission critical" systems failures in the CHEMICAL PRODUCTION & STORAGE systems within the U.S. on or about January 1, 2000. Forty (40) of these will be catastrophic, requiring anywhere from 3 weeks to 3 months to design, build and install a new replacement system.

4) There will be 540 "mission critical" systems failures in the WATER & SEWAGE TREATMENT systems within the U.S. on or about January 1, 2000. Forty (40) of these will be catastrophic, requiring anywhere from 3 weeks to 3 months to design, build and install a new replacement system.

5) There will be 540 "mission critical" systems failures in the TELECOMMUNICATIONS systems within the U.S. on or about January 1, 2000. Forty (40) of these will be catastrophic, requiring anywhere from 3 weeks to 3 months to design, build and install a new replacement system.

I am fully aware some industries will have more failures than other. It's also true that some systems may experience multiple failures, anyone of which would have caused that system to fail. Therefore, I assign a liberal error rate of + or - 10% to each industry listed above in 1-5. Again, taking the "best case scenario" of a -10% error rate, that still leaves 486 "mission critical" systems failures on or about January 1, 2000 in each of the five industries making up the vital infrastructure of the U.S.

And finally, the GRAND TOTAL of the combined "mission critical" systems failures (within the vital infrastructure of the U.S.) on or about January 1, 2000 is:

2,430

Oh yeah, Mr. Koskinen, I almost forgot to mention that there is also a problem with hundreds of thousands of Operating Systems and, the computer programs they run. But that is ANOTHER STORY ALTOGETHER.

Damn the iceberg, I mean Y2K bug, FULL STEAM AHEAD!!!

-- GoldReal (GoldReal@aol.com), November 04, 1999.

Porky, since your in Cell Block D, I doubt if I will be knocking on your door either.

-- behind the green door (behindthegreendoor@behindthegreendoorr.xcom), November 04, 1999.

The only loonies will be the ones running around like loonies when they discover that they must get on the BIG WHITE BUS. Added to my list of BIG WHITE BUS SUPPLY BAG, is some AlkaSeltzer, diarrhea medication, Preparation H.....

As usual Gordon, your posts are excellent.

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), November 04, 1999.

My goodness, GoldReal. That's some mighty methodical and nifty work you did. Thanks.

-- (good@work.there), November 04, 1999.

Gordon I had the same reaction when I read Koskiner's words.Do not give them the pleasure of disrupting your preps and your mind set.My wife said a few wise words,Think Noah.It worked for me.I have to go. Hillary Clinton is in town LV,NV for a private dinner 10G a plate, at greenspun's house.

-- G Bailey (glbailey1@excite.com), November 04, 1999.

Yesterday a particularly smug colleague asks, "so are you still nervous about Y2k?" To which I said, "I was nervous last summer, now I'm just prepared." Then today another colleague heckled me in public, turning our conversation, which had started with me talking about a sore knee from basketball, into an anti-Y2k preparedness rant as we walked down the street. Funny, every conversation we've had for the past few weeks, he has turned into an anti-Y2k prep rant without me even broaching the subject. Face it, GIs are being turned into ranting looney stereotypes by the media and by Koskinen.

-- Wouldn't.be.prudent (not@this.time.com), November 04, 1999.

GORDON: I'm sure that you realize that you are in DOUBLE jeopardy--your friends who ostracize you now will be the same "friends" who will remember you if TSHTF, and will camp on your doorstep expecting you to save their sorry, lazy, whiny, ignorant asses.

As for the insanity of the markets, it's been going on for so long(officially, it became a mania by historical standards in/around 1996, the same year Greedspin gave his "irrational exuberance" speech when the DJIA was around 6800.)that it's hard to tell what it will take to break the NEW ERA mentality that is the SAME as it was in 1929.

One thing that may provide a "letdown" may be Friday's jobs report. Dan Ascani of GMS newsletter says today he has "heard" of figures of as high as 500,000 non-farm jobs--if this is what comes out tomorrow, it will not be taken lightly at all.

Seems that any NEGATIVE news, like Europe's rate increases today,(a HALF percent, yet, not this chickensh** Greedspin .25% stuff!)is spun by the media as being GOOD. Today on the news, this was explained away as a goood thing since it would RELIEVE pressure on the FED on the 16th from raising rates here! Yet, the truth is the OPPOSITE. Same for a strong jobs report--the balloon is in danger of re-flating to grotesque size if a little air cannot be let out. BTW, for those who follow Elliott waves, and its psychology, the past 5 days of trading action/volume on the Nasdaq have been nothing short of a classic"foaming-at-the-mouth froth exuberance" typically seen at hysteric market climaxes. For all its gains, the NASDAQ100 is still below 2777, which is the level it would have to penetrate decisively to negate the primary count, which points to a strong wave DOWN literally in the next few days at most.

Jim Stack of INVESTECH is correct in saying that the dopes buying at these prices are oblivious to the fact that Greedspin is targeting FED rate policy AT THE MARKET EXUBERANCE, NOT at the general economy. Yet he has failed to deflate the bubble because he's been pissing around with .25% jumps. If the markets continue to rise, he MUST raise rates on the 16th...in fact, he doesn't have to wait for that date, even!

Finally, tomorrow is the final CHRIS CAROLAN Spiral Calendar crash date for 1999. Note the wave counts are NOT mutually exclusive-- a crash simply means that an alternate Elliott wave count becomes the TRUE one.

-- profit of doom (doom@helltopay.ca), November 04, 1999.

There are two ways to handle the rants..

1) "Yep, you have been right all along, I guess I just wandered off on a tangent. It is such a shame that so many people belive in that y2k crap."

2) You can waste your breath.

Which do you choose?

-- (...@.......), November 04, 1999.

Thanks gordon, Way to say it man! Congrats also to bardou. I get hysterical laughing about the big white bus and prep bag. Very funny stuff.

-- Earl (earl.shuholm@worldnet.att.net), November 04, 1999.

Gordon- The wife will come around. My husband did. And it wasn't because I pushed. He just looked at me one day and he knew it wasn't panic, just reality. And now he helps. Hang what everyone else says!

-- Gia (laureltree7@hotmail.com), November 05, 1999.

I bought a generator and have been told by colleges that I will look foolish if I dont have to use it. I tell them I have bought fire insurance and ask them if I will look foolish if my house doesnt bur

-- Roy (gen @ y2k.com), November 05, 1999.

i have advice in dealing with work associates, neighbors, churchmembers etc. (it is a fact that those belittling your preparations are also very curious as to the extent of those preparations. they will be waiting in line at your door with their families when the balloon goes up. ) the advice is from a book i once read... 1977 or so... regarding preparations for various events and concealing those preparations from neighbors and others.

beware the hidden need... to share the cloistered deed.

-- clayton (ratchetass@hotmail.com), November 05, 1999.

Gordon: ditto.

Of course, I felt this same way about the 'majority's' political views as well as the direction our society has gone, LONG before discovering Y2K. Bump or not.......we're fawked.

bardou: better add breath mints to your white bus list. It's gonna get crowded and they wouldn't want to offend anyone while screaming.

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), November 05, 1999.

I went through the "save the world" phase during the first two months I became aware. Then I took a look at the reactions people were having, and to them I was a Witness with a Watchtower. They didn't want to hear about it, so I have kept my mouth shut and preped over the past year in silence. I have a couple of friends preping and some neighbors I don't know very well whom are preping (one guy put a well, solar panels and windmill in over the past 6 months). The sad part will be watching people you cared enough to warn, trying to cope with the problems they could have prevented very easily.

-- Bill (y2khippo@yahoo.com), November 05, 1999.

Quote from Connections by James Burke

'We can only conclude that it is too much to ask of us poor twentieth- century humans to think, to believe, to grasp the possibility that the system might fail . . . we cannot grasp the simple and elementary fact that this technology can blow a fuse.' The modern city-dweller cannot permit himself to think that his ability to cope in such a situation is in doubt. If he did so he would be forced to accept the uncertainty of his position, because once the meagre reserves of food and light and warmth have been exhausted, what then?

-- ExCop (yinadral@juno.com), November 05, 1999.

I seem to be in a minority situation. I'm surprised to find that, while I get ribbed a little, for the most part the optimists around me seem to be listening with a much more serious demeanor. As for the stock market, I just remind myself that it ain't over till the fat lady sings. We tend to think that the big money guys are smart and have a global view of the world. This is simply not true. Gotta get to my therapy appointment now...

-- Dave (aaa@aaa.com), November 05, 1999.

Stop it, Bardou! You're scaring the "children"(G).

Gordon: I add my applause to the others.

WillContinue: I have my Binaca in a special glass case that reads "Break only in case of Prep Depletion".

ExCop: Thanks for the quote. Nobody understands "connectivity", like James Burke.

-- Bokonon (bok0non@my-Deja.com), November 05, 1999.

Gordon, show your wife the article on what Duke University/Medical Center is doing to prepare for NYE. Point out the bit where they intend to have on hand an extra 12 police officers, 12 more security officers, and a squad on standby, especially for the rollover period. The students will be on Christmas vacation, so what does this mean??? Point out also the bit where Duke MC has stockpiled 5 percent more supplies and drugs. There's more in the article. Nobody would call Duke U/MC wacko for making so many preparations. And I bet this is only the stuff they want the public to see--tip of the iceberg. Any entity wthat has refrigerator trucks on standby in case their three week's worth of fuel for the generators doesn't pan out is taking Y2K VERY seriously.

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001hDC

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), November 05, 1999.

---extremely good thread, one of the best i have read on this board. --I am prepared to be wrong, and to take ridicule- and I am also prepared to deal with any of the idiots who failed to prepare. I can stand verbal abuse now, but will not stand for physical abuse by either: private individuals who ignored reality and chose not to prepare or: governmental goons who are now and will be in the future protecting the idiot fatcats who have been responsible for this potential mess, at my expense. My philosophy is simple, LEAVE ME ALONE. I am neither a predator, nor a "perp", nor a "hoarder", nor a religious "nutcase", nor any other of the demonization labels. I repeat, LEAVE ME ALONE AND I WILL DO THE SAME WITH YOU. This to any and all lurkers who are out there. Choices need to be made by all as to what is important and what isn't. I choose to be a "Survivalist", with all that means in a positive light. "Survivalists" have no desire to hurt anyone, they only want to help, but remember, they and their families and friends come FIRST, then if there's anything left over-tangible or intangible- then it may be "shared' as the owners of these resources see fit. We are a nation of givers and helpers, at the volunteer level, but coercion will NOT work.

-- zog (zzoggy@yahoo.com), November 05, 1999.

I've been experiencing the same situations Gordon. Sometimes I get really frustrated, but then I check myself and realize I've removed the FEAR from any potentially bad situations next year.

I get teased at work by my co-workers but that's alright. I'm ready for anything or nothing. Our family thinks my wife and I are nuts, and they've said more than once "if things get bad we'll stay with you....." Now, they me be dumb, but they ARE family. And fortunately for them we've done our preps with other people in mind.

However, I was on a message board which I have frequented for 4 years and brought up Y2K and the potential for problems, and boy did I get sh*t on! Oh well, won't be much need for message boards mid-year anyway.

So "ruck-up" Gordon, you're not alone! Let people go about their business, time reveals all.

-- Tuan (Stryder X6@aol.com), November 05, 1999.

sounds like too many people talked too much at work. I learned early on that it was not a wise thing. After the first "I'll just come to your house" remark, I shut up. On occasion, i might get on the fringe of a conversation, but never start one or get on my pulpit. If someone shows a real interest, I might talk. It does get lonely. Wife is a DWGI. She even thinks the Echelon thing is OK if it helps to catch some "bad guys". But that's another story. I just think it's dangerous (and too late) to risk exposing the fact that I'm prepped. Gordon, I feel your pain.

-- (rcarver@inacom.com), November 05, 1999.