White House experts gives final advice on Y2K
4.10 p.m. ET (2119 GMT) November 4, 1999

By Jim Abrams, Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP)  The first of January will neither usher in the end of the world nor the end of all problems, the White House senior adviser on the Y2K computer issue told a House hearing Thursday.

John Koskinen said that among the Y2K "myths'' that must be dispelled are "doomsday'' scenarios that nuclear weapons will launch themselves or that the federal government is using the computer problem as an excuse to take control over other institutions.

Another myth, he said is that Jan. 1, the arrival of the new millennium, will be the all-or-nothing day for computer problems, and that people can close the books on Y2K after that. Businesses and governments are already having to use year 2000 dates in their operations and will continue to do so into the new year, and there will be a continued need to watch for slow degradations in service, he said.

"It is important for the public to know that Jan. 1 is just one of the important dates in the life of the Y2K issue.''

The hearing on the myths and realities of the Y2K problem was probably the last in the House before the arrival of the new millennium. Panels of the House Government Reform and Science committees have held dozens of such hearings over recent years to discuss the ramifications of computers that read only the last two digits of a year and could mistake 2000, or "00,'' for 1900.

Another myth, Koskinen said, is that industry assurances that they are ready for Y2K can't be believed because they did their own reporting. The basic infrastructure is in good shape, he said, with electric power grids, telecommunications networks, financial systems and key transportation systems expected to function normally.

Asked by Rep. Constance Morella, R-Md., about criticisms that he was overly optimistic, Koskinen said none of those "predicting the end of the world as we know it'' had come up with evidence that Y2K glitches will cause major problems in this country.

Some developing countries are likely to experience Y2K-related failures, but "there is no indication that these problems will have a negative impact on the overall U.S. economy.''

Joel Willemssen of the General Accounting Office, the investigative arm of Congress, agreed that there had been substantial progress at the federal level since the GAO in early 1997 identified Y2K as a high-risk area.

The Social Security Administration has led the way in preparing, while the Veterans Affairs and Education departments have made major strides after slow starts, he said. The Pentagon, the IRS and the agencies that oversee Medicare and aviation still have a few problems to work out and the states still have work to do in such areas as Medicaid, food stamps and child support enforcement. Education and the health care industry are other areas that demand attention, he said.

Among the realities, Koskinen said, are that major public services will work but there will be some problems. He said any disruptions "will be short-lived, like temporary problems caused by storms.''

His office, the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion, has put out a preparedness checklist which advises people to have at least a three-day supply of food and water and keep copies of important records.

His office will operate an Information Coordination Center to receive status reports from the private and public sectors. It will begin 24-hour monitoring operations on Dec. 28.

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), November 04, 1999

Answers

Final advice? Where is he going?

-- Dolma Lhamo (I'm@nonymous.now), November 04, 1999.

See? No problem except for national defense, tax collection, Medicare, Medicaid, airports and air traffic control, hospitals, and welfare.

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), November 04, 1999.

"Final" advice? Where is he going?

-- Dolma Lhamo (I'm@nonymous.now), November 04, 1999.

It's the final hearing before the House subcommittee. That's all. We'll hear lots more Kosky.

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), November 04, 1999.

such good news, think I'll make some tea sit down and feel so much better. NOT

-- && (&&@&&.&), November 04, 1999.

How sad.

-- Faith Weaver (suzsolutions@yahoo.com), November 04, 1999.

Now if a doomer were to say.....

"Another myth, that Jan. 1, the arrival of the new millennium, will be the all-or-nothing day for computer problems, and that people can close the books on Y2K after that. And there will be a continued need to watch for slow degradations in service"

and

"It is important for the public to know that Jan. 1 is just one of the important dates in the life of the Y2K issue."

........ the polly's would have a field day. Actually some already have.

-- the Virginian (1@1.com), November 04, 1999.

This time I don't even need to go back and review the 100 day report. Wasn't that just a month ago? Was he there? Was he listening? Did he review the testimony? UUUUUggggggghhhhhhhh, I think I am going to be physically sick.

Koskinen said none of those "predicting the end of the world as we know it'' had come up with evidence that Y2K glitches will cause major problems in this country.

No Evidence? *&^$^)*(_&&^$^%$%$&^*)|)(_)&(&*%

Some developing countries are likely to experience Y2K-related failures, but "there is no indication that these problems will have a negative impact on the overall U.S. economy.''

No mention of Russia, or other countries who's Y2k-related failures could have a significant effect on our economy.

This sucks, and I am pissed. What a liar!

-- Karla (KarlaCALIF@aol.com), November 04, 1999.

"...Jan. 1, the arrival of the new millennium..." Wrong. The new mellennium begins in approximately 14 months.

"Asked by Rep. Constance Morella, R-Md., about criticisms that he was overly optimistic, Koskinen said none of those "predicting the end of the world as we know it'' had come up with evidence that Y2K glitches will cause major problems in this country." Mr. Koskinen, whete's your evidence, Preferably by a 3rd party source, that major problems in this country won't happen?

-- Uncle Bob (UNCLB0B@Tminus57&counting.down), November 04, 1999.

I sure hope that it is his "final advice."

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), November 04, 1999.

John Koskinen = the voice of reason.

To bad the following bailed to miss their day in the sun.

Former head cheese of the IRS (before Rosotti, issued the PRIME RFC, then split)

Ray Lang of the FAA

CIO for the VHA sometime in Sept., 1999

CIO whiz at the SSA last month

More to follow?....who am I missing?

-- Charles R. (chuck_roast@trans.net), November 04, 1999.

The CFO from IBM just jumped ship also. I know thier are more. Who else?

-- Andre Coltrin (andre@coltrin.org), November 04, 1999.

Alice Rivlin and Robert Reuben...gone...

-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), November 04, 1999.

Okay, not to sound polly here or anything, but aren't people leaving posts all the time? Does anyone have a comparision of other administrations and advisor/department head/chief-executive whosit exits? Though the evidence would be largely circumstantial, it WOULD be interesting if there were more people leaving voluntarily during this administration than ot

-- CD (CDOKeefe@aol.com), November 04, 1999.

the Pres of Pac Bell - They just layed off all the employees at PB in Sacrament - moving in with their parent DEC in the South Bay.

-- MIS (KarlaCALIF@aol.com), November 04, 1999.

The CIO for the City of Atlanta - yesterday?

-- again (KarlaCALIF@aol.com), November 04, 1999.

Y2K REALITY CHECK: Best Case Scenario "Bump In The Road" Will Be Painful For All U.S. Citizens

OKAY KOSKINEN, YOU WANT PROOF? HERE'S AS CLOSE TO ACTUAL PROOF AS IT GETS.

From my research on the net, I have determined that embedded chips come in three flavors:

Chips that will have no problem Chips with problems that can be easily remediated pre or post Y2K Chips that will fail out-right and must be replaced or worked around

There is a fourth flavor of chip, though not technically a "flavor" in and of itself. These are the chips that are never identified/located, are identified but incorrectly assessed/tested/evaluated, or are inaccessable or in-use in such a manner that renders them untestable. Some unknown percentage of these chips will fail. And some of those that fail will result in a catastrophic failure of the system or device they control irreguardless of whether it is a "mission critical" system in a nuclear power plant or a VCR.)

CHIPS THAT WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM

Worldwide, there are approximately 50 billion chips in use today. Most of these chips (96.002% to 97.002%) are okay and will have no problem rolling over to the year 2000. Enough said about these.

CHIPS WITH PROBLEMS THAT CAN BE EASILY REMEDIATED PRE OR POST Y2K

About 2-3% of these 50 billion chips (I use 2.5% in my calculation below) will exhibit some abnormal behavior on or about the year 2000 rollover, requiring "simple remediation by a human", such as physically re-setting the time clock of the device or system they are embedded in.

Do the math:

50,000,000,000 x .025 = 1,250,000,000

With the U.S. as the most technologically advanced country in the world, logic dictates that anywhere between 10% and 30% of these 1,250,000,000 chips are in embedded systems within the United States. (I use 20% in my calculation below.)

Do the math:

1,250,000,000 x .20 = 250,000,000

Okay, so how many of these 250 million chips (that will be impacted within the United States) are in "mission critical" embedded systems of the U.S.'s 200,000 most vital physical infrastructures? (power companies, drinking water and wastewater treatment facilities, chemical companies, oil and natural gas companies, voice and data telecommunications companies) Again, I use an overly conservative figure of 1% of these 250 million chips in my calculation below.

Do the math:

250,000,000 x .01 = 2,500,000

And finally, lets assume these 2,500,000 chips are distributed evenly between 200,000 or so individual government, public and private entity's mission critical systems that comprise the vital infrastructure of the United States.

Do the math:

2,500,000 / 200,000 = 12.5

CONCLUSION: Using the very conservative figures above, the bottom line is that each of the 200,000 individual government, public and private entities comprising the vital infrastructure of the United States must 1) locate 12.5 embedded chips hiding throughout their thousands of embedded systems, and 2) make 12.5 "simple remediations". This is the easy part unless Murphy rears his ugly head...and 1 of every 1000 "simple remediation" tasks are botched or worse, were never identified as needing "simple remediation" in the first place, possible through oversight or relying purely on vendor certification.

Do the math:

2,500,000 / 1000 = 2,500

Now we have 2,500 of these 200,000 individual government, public and private entities comprising the vital infrastructure of the United States engaged in a mission critical systems failure on or about 2000/01/01.

Apply this to the real world, with each "critical" industry receiving an equal number of "critical systems" failures:

POWER PRODUCTION & DISTRIBUTION 500 "mission critical" Systems Failures

OIL & NATURAL GAS 500 "mission critical" Systems Failures

CHEMICAL PRODUCTION & STORAGE 500 "mission critical" Systems Failures

WATER & SEWAGE TREATMENT 500 "mission critical" Systems Failures

TELECOMMUNICATIONS 500 "mission critical" Systems Failures

total 2,500 "mission critical" Systems Failures

At best, each "mission critical" system failure results in a complete shut-down, albeit temporary (because these chips CAN be easily remediated on the spot), of that individual company/organization. Remember, these chips ARE embedded in "mission critical" systems.

At worst...you begin to have the domino effect and, well...it gets ugly quick.

That was the good news, now for the bad news. In addition to all the "mission critical" systems failures listed above that can be easily remediated after they fail...add the following...

...Worldwide, an additional 0.2% of these 50 billion chips will fail outright and can not be remediated in any way. These chips (or the systems/devices they are embedded in) must be replaced or worked around prior to rollover to Y2K, otherwise the system or device they control will experience a catastrophic failure.

Do the math:

50,000,000,000 x .002 = 100,000,000

Applying the same conservative percentages as before, in these calculations, we get:

100,000,000 x .20 = 20,000,000 (In the U.S.)

20,000,000 x .01 = 200,000 (In the "mission critical" systems of the vital infrastructure of the U.S.)

200,000 / 200,000 = 1 (In each company/organization)

Now, Let's say 1 out of every 1,000 (maintaining the same ratio as before) of these non-remediable embedded chips (that MUST be replaced or worked around because they WILL fail and can NOT be remediated) has a botched remediation attempt in the work-around/replacement or is missed and never remediated.

Do the math:

200,000 / 1,000 = 200

Now we have 200 chips embedded in "mission critical" systems throughout the vital infrastructure in the U.S. that will fail on or about 2000/01/01. These chips may take from 3 weeks to 3 months to fix and until they are fixed, the company/organization literally grinds to a halt (at best).

Again, with each industry receiving an equal number of non-remediable chips resulting in "mission critical" systems failures:

POWER PRODUCTION & DISTRIBUTION 40 "mission critical" Systems Failures

OIL & NATURAL GAS 40 "mission critical" Systems Failures

CHEMICAL PRODUCTION & STORAGE 40 "mission critical" Systems Failures

WATER & SEWAGE TREATMENT 40 "mission critical" Systems Failures

TELECOMMUNICATIONS 40 "mission critical" Systems Failures

total 200 "mission critical" Systems Failures

IN CONCLUSION MR. KOSKINEN:

Using information from the Senate's 100 Day Report, a LITTLE common sense, and the (conservative) figures representing a "BEST CASE SCENARIO", I have concluded that:

1) There will be 540 "mission critical" systems failures in the POWER PRODUCTION AND DISTRIBUTION systems within the U.S. on or about January 1, 2000. Forty (40) of these will be catastrophic, requiring anywhere from 3 weeks to 3 months to design, build and install a new replacement system.

2) There will be 540 "mission critical" systems failures in the OIL & NATURAL GAS systems within the U.S. on or about January 1, 2000. Forty (40) of these will be catastrophic, requiring anywhere from 3 weeks to 3 months to design, build and install a new replacement system.

3) There will be 540 "mission critical" systems failures in the CHEMICAL PRODUCTION & STORAGE systems within the U.S. on or about January 1, 2000. Forty (40) of these will be catastrophic, requiring anywhere from 3 weeks to 3 months to design, build and install a new replacement system.

4) There will be 540 "mission critical" systems failures in the WATER & SEWAGE TREATMENT systems within the U.S. on or about January 1, 2000. Forty (40) of these will be catastrophic, requiring anywhere from 3 weeks to 3 months to design, build and install a new replacement system.

5) There will be 540 "mission critical" systems failures in the TELECOMMUNICATIONS systems within the U.S. on or about January 1, 2000. Forty (40) of these will be catastrophic, requiring anywhere from 3 weeks to 3 months to design, build and install a new replacement system.

I am fully aware some industries will have more failures than other. It's also true that some systems may experience multiple failures, anyone of which would have caused that system to fail. Therefore, I assign a liberal error rate of + or - 10% to each industry listed above in 1-5. Again, taking the "best case scenario" of a -10% error rate, that still leaves 486 "mission critical" systems failures on or about January 1, 2000 in each of the five industries making up the vital infrastructure of the U.S.

And finally, the GRAND TOTAL of the combined "mission critical" systems failures (within the vital infrastructure of the U.S.) on or about January 1, 2000 is:

2,430

Oh yeah, Mr. Koskinen, I almost forgot to mention that there is also a problem with hundreds of thousands of Operating Systems and, the computer programs they run. But that is ANOTHER STORY ALTOGETHER.

Damn the iceberg, I mean Y2K bug, FULL STEAM AHEAD!!!

-- GoldReal (GoldReal@aol.com), November 04, 1999.

Its interesting that Koskinen never includes the oil and gas industry when he says that the basic infrastructure is in good shape.

-- Danny (dcox@ix.netcom.com), November 05, 1999.