http://hubbertpeak.com/ivanhoe/index.html

-- Count Vronsky (vronsky@anna.lit), November 04, 1999

Answers

Sorry Count,

I consider myself a doomer who's hoping for the best, but this is BS.

Some of the oil fields have even appeared to replenish themselves in recent years. Geologists don't understand why yet, but there is a possibility that there are additional supplies below some fields which are feeding them even as we pump the stuff out.

Will our equipment be able to remove enough of it after rollover? I sure hope so, but I'm not counting on it.

Will there still be enough oil after the next CDC? Yes there will.

-- nothere nothere (notherethere@hotmail.com), November 04, 1999.

lothere, nothere,

It may not all be BS. Look at the following sentence:

"It is concluded that the critical date per USGS data when global oil demand will exceed the worlds production will fall somewhere between 2000-2010, and may occur very suddenly due to unpredictable political events."

Seems to me that on 2000-01-01 the world's DEMAND will remain constant, but that the world's PRODUCTION may drop precipitiously. That would satisfy the requirement listed.

I agree with you that evidence is that the oil fields are re-filling, much to the consternation of those who taught that oil is the residue of previous plant life.

-- de (delewis@XOUTfdinetone.net), November 04, 1999.

I didn't read the article, but its a fact that the easy to harvest reserves are gone. These readily accessible fossil fuels "bootstrapped" our civilization during the industrial era, back when technology was not advanced enough to tap the more hidden deposits. This point has been made earlier by those claiming an Infomagic scenario is probable.

Just another thing to think about if y2k pulls the plug on life as we know it.

-- a (a@a.a), November 04, 1999.

Wow, something interesting. Nothere and De, can you provide link to the evidence of refilling, contradicting the plant-decomposition theory of oil origin ?

-- Count Vronsky (vronsky@anna.lit), November 04, 1999.

"Some of the oil fields have even appeared to replenish themselves in recent years"

Since we seem to be busting through old thought patterns right and left around here, finding new truth as we go, thought this might be of interest:

http://www.prouty.org/coment13.html

The Fletcher Prouty Commentary - June

Greasing the Palms of the Oil Barons

In the first place what is oil? Is it 85% carbon, 13% hydrogen and 0.5% oxygen with traces of sulfur and nitrogen. Most geochemists ( in the pay of oil companies) believe that the oil originates from the decomposition of organic matter. They would have us believe that because organic matter - that is, formerly living organisms - is quantifiably a very limited source, the supply of oil itself must be limited. It is not.

Oil is often called a "fossil" fuel; the idea being that it comes from formerly living organisms. This may have been plausible back when oil wells were drilled into the fossil layers of the earth's crust; but today, great quantities of oil are found in deeper wells that are found below the level of any fossils. How then could oil have come from fossils, or decomposed former living matter, if it exists in rock formations far below layers of fossils - the evidence of formerly living organisms? It must not come from living matter at all!

Furthermore, if all the plants, insects and animals that ever lived were all squeezed into a massive ooze, there is no way they could have amounted to the volume of oil that has been found to date. They just would not make that much juice. On top of this, oil geochemists will admit, if pressed, that if all the oil wells ever drilled by their so - called scientific methods of divining had been drilled totally at random, they would have found as much oil with random drilling as by " educated " drilling. In other words, there is a lot of oil down there.....most everywhere. Just drill for it - and if you don't strike it, drill a little deeper.

There can only be one answer to the misinformation we have about oil. The oil men have always wanted a monopoly control, and with it, they want to charge as much money as they can for every gallon of gasoline. With this, they gross hundreds of billions of dollars per - year. They want us to believe that our present rate of oil consumption, we have possibly 20 to 30 years before we run out. They make this sound credible with their " decomposed organic matter" fable.

By bursting this bubble and pulling the plug on this scenario, we discover that petroleum is a natural organic product that is rising, in enormous quantities , from deep within the earth; with deeper drilling, as wildcatters are already doing, there will adequate oil for a long, long time, even at the present rate of consumption.

From 1956 to 1971, the number of giant oil fields more than doubled as drills go deep into the Paleozoic strata and below. Today, there is a glut on the market, and those who control oil are doing all they can to limit production in order to keep the prices very high. To do this, they get a lot of government help.

Shortly before William J. Casey became the head of the CIA, he made a speech before the American Bar Association during which he advocated "international agreements to establish commodity reserves and maintain prices". This is the kind of policy oil men like. At the same conference, Hans Heymann, one of Casey's deputies at the CIA, talked about the "enormous oil inventory building that we've had", and that " we (CIA) developed a system of institutions and codes of conduct that make it far easier for those who influence the international marketplace to exercise that influence". It is "those who influence the marketplace" who are the oil barons, and they are taking us for hundreds of billions of dollars every year - with the aid of almost all Western governments.

Colonel L. Fletcher Prouty

-- OR (orwelliator@biosys.net), November 04, 1999.

I claim some knowledge on the subject of petroleum. First, most petroleum is derived from algae deposited in shallow warm seas; only a small amount, say 10%, is from terrestrial woody plants. While some buried sedimentary organic material that may not be thermally mature may in the relatively near future (geologically) be further heated and thus produce additional extractable petroleum, ultimately additional SOM burial is required for more petroleum production.

As far as running out of petroleum goes, the question must be further defined. If you want $9.00/barrel low-sulfur crude, we're about out. If you want $50.00/barrel crude (with no specs on sulfur level at the wellhead), well, there's plenty yet.

To give an example, there is hundreds to thousands (depending on definitions) of potential supply of petroleum in the oil shale in the Green River Formation (Eocene age, I believe) within 200 miles of where Wyoming, Colorado, and Utah intersect. Environmental regs, water supply, jurisdictional problems, heavy metal content (catalyst- poisoning and pollution issues) and capital availability for the years (7 or so) setting up commercial-scale plants would require are definite but solvable obstacles. There is also a large deposit of oil shale in the Eastern U.S., running from northern Alabama to Western New York to northwest Illinois, including the Chattanooga/Huron/Antrim shales (roughly Devonian age), but it is lower-grade and hydrogen-limited. Oil shale is common in much of the rest of the world as well; think of places there is lots of coal, and some OS is probably not far.

There are also some tar sands in places like Alberta, but you get the idea. Besides, on of these days, we'll get hydrogen fusion power plants on line, and will stop BURNING all those big lovely organic molecules in petroleum (that we should solely be making things out of). Hydrogen is the fuel of the future IMO for vehicles not electrically powered, but that's another story.

www.y2ksafeminnesota.com

-- MinnesotaSmith (y2ksafeminnesota@hotmail.com), November 04, 1999.

Thanks for blowing my mind, there, Orwelliator.

-- lisa (lisa@work.now), November 04, 1999.

My pleasure, Lisa.

-- OR (orwelliator@biosys.net), November 04, 1999.

Count and Lisa,

The Wall Street Journal ran a piece on how surprised geologists are about this anywhere from 3 to 9 months ago. I'll see if I can find it. I have to search for something else today as well.

The replenishing of the oil fields has thrown the question of the origin of oil wide open recently.

BTW, there is also a somewhat new theory that explains dinosaur extinction in terms of infectious diseases wiping them out rather than asteroids striking the earth.

Got bleach?

-- nothere nothere (notherethere@hotmail.com), November 04, 1999.

The idea that there are huge, infinitely vast petroleum deposits is an appealing one and possibly even scientifically accurate. My gut feeling is that petroleum is as old as the earth itself, predating the evolution of life. The reason is that there exist carbonaceous chondrite asteroids which appear to be extremely rich in sludgy hyrdocarbons; moreover Titan (thought to be made of stuff similar to early earth) is possibly covered with an ethane/methane ocean.

What gives different crudes their different "flavors" and varieties? Probably hydrogen-reducing bacteria which colonize these deposits to many kilometers deep in the crust, right to the edge of the mantle.

However, the question remains not whether petroluem remains abundant on Earth, but whether or not it will remain accessible.

I doubt it will remain accessible. Perhaps in a few decades, it will become more costly to drill out the crude than it will be to process and market it. Drilling for crude oil will eventually burn more oil than is demanded to access it in the first place.

The last places on Earth where crude oil can be readily extracted lies in the warmer reaches of Siberia--and more importantly, in the former Soviet "Stans" of the Caspian area. This does not bode well for the West since it could pose a possible conflict with Russia or China.

Why don't we just convert to "warm" fusion or hydrogen quantum technologies (ie., "Black Light Power"), ambient geothermal, or solar/ hydrogen power? Beats the heck out of me. It would certainly be better than having to defend the Saudis or the Isrealis again.

-- coprolith (coprolith@rocketship.com), November 04, 1999.

At best, virtually all of the oil will be depleted by about 2050, based on an extrapolation of the rising demand curve. This assumes that oil continues to be the major energy and lubricating source. There are alternatives: Fusion power and biologic/synthetic lubricants. When the prices get high enough, the alternatives will be made available. It happened before, when whale oil ran out, and the world turned to kerosine!

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), November 04, 1999.

I tend to (but not sure of) the viewpoint that the easy oil has been gotten. The fact that it was easy back in the 1800s allowed industrial bootstrapping. If the engine stops, will there still be enough easily accessible, to bootstrap again? I think not.

You can argue about oil. But you can't argue about the no longer easy availability of many important minerals and metals. I don't think there will be any jump starting of a stalled engine.

-- A (A@AisA.com), November 04, 1999.