I am a truth-seeker who has read much about Y2K, but I still haven't decided whether I should believe it will be as bad as most people in this forum seem to think. Other than mistrust of the government, why do you disregard all the "positive" reports coming from companies in various sectors regarding their Y2K-preparedness? It sounds hard for me to believe because everything I read indicated comliancy would be virtually impossible to achieve by Jan. 1 for most corporations: not enough programmers, too many lines of code, too expensive, etc. And yet, if their updates are to be believed, the vast majority are guaranteeing they are ready for the new millenium. I would like to see evidence from both sides that shows why they believe this is one huge, fabricated lie\conspiracy, or why it is the plausible truth. I am frustrated by rantings and ravings, I just want to know the reality of the situation. Any relevant information or insights would be much appreciated.

-- Dan Tompkins (figman4@juno.com), November 04, 1999

Answers

You and the rest of the world.

You only have a few short days to make up your mind, you know. To sit on your ass, seeking "the reality of the situation" may consign you to the wrong end of the gene pool early next year. Anyone can make up their mind based on complete, factual evidence -- usually after the fact. There has never been such evidence with regard to y2k.

Read the archives, especially the senate reports and GAO reports.

-- de (delewis@XOUTinetone.net), November 04, 1999.

Dan:

We're all "truth-seekers" here. Here's the short answer: No one knows. For the long answer, read 4,000 threads a day over the next 60 days. As one who has researched the issue almost full time for over a year, I guarantee the conclusion you'll reach: no one knows.

Some guesses are better than others, but they're still guesses. Time will tell. The only logical choice is to prepare for potential disruptions. Let not your seek for truth slow you from that purpose, for that is all you have time for.

-- hope4thebest (prepare4the@wor.st), November 04, 1999.

Geesh Dan. Look at the date. Still haven't decided what to do? Guess you're screwed. Want US to tell you what to do? How about if I tell you who to vote for, while I'm at it. Want 'proof'? You, me, and the rest of the world included. Can you count to 59?

Not exactly one of the sharpest knives in the drawer......are ya?

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), November 04, 1999.

Here's a thought, Dan. Why don't you just wait and see? It seems to me that you have already made up your mind as it is already into November and you still HAVEN'T DONE ANYTHING!

I've heard of procrastinators, but don't expect this forum to hold your hand while you sit on the pot and contemplate the universe....

Read the archives. Read the forum....Go ahead Dan, take some MORE time to search for the TRUTH as only you can see it....sheesh....

-- Ynott (Ynott@incorruptible.com), November 04, 1999.

I agree with the other posters. One can't be sure either way based upon the available evidence. Can you afford not to be prepared? It's risk management, plain and simple. Good luck with whatever you choose to do.

-- haha (haha@haha.com), November 04, 1999.

It's going to be just a bump in the road. Just sit back and watch it. In the meantime, I will try harder to be prepared like a 10. But don't you bother yourself! Keep analyzing the situation!

-- nothing (better@to.do), November 04, 1999.

Dan,

This might help you to make a decision about whether or not to prepare:

A rational explantion for making Y2K prepations
http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001R UO

Sincerely,
Stan Faryna

Got 14 days of preps? If not, get started now. Click here.

-- Stan Faryna (faryna@groupmail.com), November 04, 1999.

10 good reasons for procrastination:

1.

-- April (Alwzapril@home.com), November 04, 1999.

Dan: As you can tell from the previous responses there is no one can prove to you with hard and cold facts that such and such will absolutely happen on 1/1/00. For what it is worth my mind was made up last January when I watched Senator Bennet's sub-committee talking to the CIA, State Department, Commerce Department and the Gartner Group relative to the effects of computer problems. Add to that the report from IEEE to the same sub-committee and there was more than ample evidence that there was a real possibility of problems coming our way. I made a determination to prepare then. This was before I even started coming to this web site to get additional info. Bottom line: Prepare for whatever you believe can happen. If you over-prepare what have you lost? Since most of what you will buy is food stuffs you will be able to use anyway you will not have squandered money away- simply purchased ahead of time. Anyway, that's how I feel FWIW.

-- Neil G.Lewis (pnglewis1@yahoo.com), November 04, 1999.

I think there are a few things all of us can agree on, though:

1) Nobody can predict the future in detail.

2) Full compliance is impossible and will never be reached.

3) It is certainly possible to get close enough to get by OK.

4) Not everyone can reach that status.

5) How many will fall short, and how far short, and who they'll be, we have only a hazy idea. Banks look good, oil looks bad.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), November 04, 1999.

I will attempt an honest (but partial) answer to Dan and to any newbies/lurkers out there who are reading this with similar conflicts. I think this is a valid question, even though late in the game, because more people are becoming aware of, and confused about, this issue. It won't help them to say if they haven't done anything by now, they are toast. And if they are going to start researching now, why not a frame of reference to help in the search?

Many of us are constantly reassessing the validity of our projections, even though we cannot be sure who is right or what will happen. It helps to keep asking for and looking for a yardstick while we are doing that.

As a long-term journalist, my reaction has always been to distrust self-reported information, especially when it is as syrupy as Y2K PR has been. Maybe there is truth to this PR, but my immediate reaction is to become very skeptical when I read jolly/polly stuff.

It is not just the government spin, it is the way corporations and industries are wording things that make me suspicious. If I were doing a story on this topic, I would want to pin down every statement I heard from a cheerful PR person, and match it in hard light with the other side.

Accept what you can prove, what has been verified, and independently verified, preferably. File the rest under "consideration, with caution". And so that leaves a big question mark, a lot of caution. Y2K is one topic where the media have been lax in demanding independent verification.

Also, there is the definition of what is "mission critical" in order to be ready. It has already been discussed among government representatives and others that the figures for "readiness" can be and have been adjusted in some cases based on new definitions of what is "mission critical." (One Bennett-Dodd workshop session comes to mind here) The changing of the goal posts seems to be an effective technique in some -- or more? - cases.

I wish I could understand why -- other than spin/agenda reasons -- a positive outlook seems so normal for some, especially those with credentials to understand this issue. For my part, there are so many trigger phrases or words from self serving industry and government reps that it makes me suspect just the opposite. Very worrisome indeed.

-- (normally@ease.notnow), November 04, 1999.

Watch the oil industry. This is where the worst consequences of Y2K for this country will be it appears.

-- cody varian (cody@y2ksurvive.com), November 04, 1999.

Banks look good, oil looks bad?

Flint, if oil takes a serious hit, what will that do to banks?

Toot-sniffing idiot savant.

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), November 04, 1999.

Black gold, Texas tea, look at some of the recent oil posts. Think 1973 times 10. Without oil, the wheels of the world stop turning. Just when you start feeling like everything will be ok with the banks, electric, etc... Gordon or DD will remind you of how dependent we are on oil and it's byproducts. Without oil the "modern" economy grinds to a halt. Wait and see attitudes will get you killed. Think food, water, heat, medicine, self-protection, etc.... 59 days and counting.

-- Bill (y2khippo@yahoo.com), November 04, 1999.

Here's the truth: party til you're dead

-- (sojourner@truth.dot), November 04, 1999.

The banks are not OK.

-- unfortunately (banks@not.done), November 04, 1999.

If nothing else, look at the billions of dollars being spent to fix this problem. No one, NO ONE, spends this much money on a non- problem.

Follow the money...if that doesn't convince you, nothing will.

-- mar (derigueur2@aol.com), November 04, 1999.

One positive result of severe Y2K disruptions... you won't have to tolerate the rude, childish writing of "Will Continue." She'll only annoy those in her immediate vicinity.

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), November 04, 1999.

When Pilate asked Jesus, "What IS truth?" do you know what Jesus said? According to the Bible, he said nothing.

The truth can't be transferred from one person to another with words.

I am preparing because a friend bought a $4000 program this year and it wasn't compliant. I read that Florida AT&T execs estimate half of their vendors are lying about being compliant.

Cody in Arizona says he works in a maximum security prison and the doors stuck open during a y2k test last month.

My husband works for a huge water company that sent out customer bill inserts saying, "We've spent a lot of money and we care about you." They threw out beaucoups and installed a whole new meter reading/ billing system and spent four months trying to recover from the problems it caused. [It magically began dropping accounts and a blame- game ensued.]

So every time I read that a corporation has spent a lot of money and cares about it's clients or customers and especially if it installed a whole new system, I wonder what the reality there is.

I worked for the IRS in the eighties when they installed new computers and taxpayers became very tired of waiting for refunds.

I am preparing because I read Gary North last year and KNOW that we Do live to close to the edge.

-- Becky (rmbolte@wvadventures.net), November 04, 1999.

Dan,

Your post raises a couple of questions. First, how bad do you believe most people here think Y2K might be? I'd say most are not expecting the power grid to go down and stay down. Secondly, if things turn out only a third as bad as you believe most people here think it might be, would that mean that no preparations at all are called for?

Y2K doesn't have to be a catastrophe for preps to be worthwhile. If Y2K turns out to be "only" as bad as a hurricane, you might be very thankful that you had set aside some extra water and food.

A lot of Y2K projects are going to be finished before January--but some won't be finished in time. If we get lucky and, let's say, 85% of all mission-critical systems are ready by January, how would the unfinished 15% (and foreign countries) affect the 85%? There are many possible outcomes for Y2K that fall somewhere between "bump in the road" and a total collapse.

It's always a good idea to be prepared for an uncertain future. It's why we buy insurance.

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), November 04, 1999.

Dan, because as far as Washington is concerned, YOU CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH! I think Paula Gordon's essays and white papers have come as close as any as to why Washington is sandbagging and manipulating us.

At any rate, the vast majority of companies aren't "guaranteeing" anything at all - where in the world did you get that idea?? What their PR departments and lawyers are overwhelmingly saying is that they are "on track" and they "expect" to be ready. I think most of us see a very wide range of plausible results, and that range reflects an inability to obtain accurate information. Direct and indirect Y2K impacts will be so tangled up with other problems that I think it will be difficult even after the rollover to understand the full impact of Y2K on our economy and society.

Reality for you is what you personally have at stake - where do you live? - any young children or elderly relatives? Prepare accordingly, or hold yourself and noone else responsible for the consequences. At a minimum, do yourself and your loved ones a favor and get on with those preps that you could use anyway.

-- Brooks (brooksbie@hotmail.com), November 04, 1999.

Why did Jesus not say anything when asked what is the truth?

-- wondering about it (always@have.why?), November 04, 1999.

Jim Lord's new essay (www.jimlord.to) has an interesting re- evaluation of how this will shake out, and a hint that programmer whistleblowers may go public soon. Go to section "What's New", read the most recent essay, 11/3.

-- (normally@ease.notnow), November 04, 1999.

Dan, two questions:

1. If you live in the middle of an "isolated local disruption", hypotetically, one week in duration, are you ready?

Yes, good, you are ahead of the game.

No, you would be well to read on and think about it some more. Heck, most of the optimists on this forum are prepared for a week or two.

2. If there are "global disruptions" are you ready (to the best of your ability)?

Yes, then you have done all you can, relax some.

No, read some of the suggested links, and let us know what you think.

Either way, forgo some every day "luxuries" for a week or so, and purchase a little bit ahead of some food and personal items of things you use every day now anyways; rethink your vulnerability during a power outage or unemployment; while you are making up your mind.

Related or unrelated to y2k, prices will always go up, unemployment or illness and power outages can happen and it will be cold in January for most of us. So it is a win/win situation to start rethinking living more independently right now.

-- Lilly (homesteader145@yahoo.com), November 04, 1999.

Dan, I have a short story to illustrate the media take on all this. Back in 1991 I worked for a retail book reseller that was bought out by Barnes & Noble. The buy-out was announced to the press, TV and print, and then the company owner and company president sat back and waited for anyone/everyone to call and ask them questions about how this might effect the local economy, job loss', etc. They waited at the company until 9:00pm that night. I happen to be there doing a hardware upgrade on companies mainframe and can personally verify that indeed they were there. NO ONE CALLED. PERIOD. Only one newspaper even carried the story and they said the president of our firm "was unavailable for comment". What LAZY shiftless people most journalists are. I am sure there are one or two who still take the time and do the research, but they are the exception, NOT THE NORM. So, if you think you should believe all those PR types and journalists who are taking their information directly from those PR types, hey go ahead. Just don't knock on MY DOOR come 01/05/00. I won't give you anything (most people have a day or two's supplies on their shelves).

-- Wallew (Wallew@aol.com), November 04, 1999.

One positive result of severe Y2K disruptions... you won't have to tolerate the rude, childish writing of "Will Continue." She'll only annoy those in her immediate vicinity.

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), November 04, 1999.

Isn't this the guy who's always bitching about ad hominem attacks?

Thought your post was real funny, WC.

-- Who's (ad@homineming.now?), November 04, 1999.

Dan, no need to be concerned about whether you should prepare or not. If you choose not to plan for the event, there's always the BIG WHITE BUS you can catch a ride on to take you to the feeding trough. If you choose to get on the BIG WHITE BUS, be sure to take bleach, face masks, toilet paper, antibacterial soap, lice and crab spray. For sure you will need those items, and don't complain about eating the same food 3 times a day.

-- (bardou@baloney.com), November 04, 1999.

Will Continue:

Kinda churlish today, eh? Flint never said there wouldn't be a domino effect, did he? Although you and I are both GI's, I wish you'd take your problems with Flint elsewhere.

-- haha (haha@haha.com), November 04, 1999.

Actually, Decker, it's *you* we'll be blessedly rid of.

-- Wilferd (WilferdW@aol.com), November 04, 1999.

Dan hard evidence is well hidden and for good reasons.

No Head of State or Corporation wants to be the one who caused the panic.

Lies about compliancy or readiness or whatever are so widespread, that at this point none of our leaders really know what the truth is, concerning the big picture. If the truth is bad news, the results would be total disaster for a company, a city, a state, a country, a region or maybe even a neighborhood.

We are past the point of no return. Decency and honor have been traded away. Truth cannot be found.

You want evidence.

The following isn't evidence, but it is an example of how far some people are currently willing to go, to maintain the status quo, even at the risk of harming many of us.

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission has clearly avoided taking the strict approach to regulating the safety of nuclear power plants here in the U.S. And in doing so, they have lowered the bar for readiness.

Go back to the available documents. Judge for yourself.

Would a regulatory agency significantly reduce the safety margin of a nuclear power plant, without an overwhelming reason?

-- snooze button (alarmclock_2000@yahoo.com), November 04, 1999.

Troll alert.

-- (troll@troll.troll), November 04, 1999.

Consider this: from LA, about a hospital that (now that there is less than 60 days left -working nights, holidays, and weekends) has just decide to get funds to REPLACE computer that will fail.

Not "might fail", "might have problems", might have a "glitch", not even "have a minor program error" - this computer will fail.

So, your guess, can the hospital actually buy this mainframe-style computer, get it installed, get it reporgramed, get all of their existing program and data to actually run on the new computer, and get their old operators actually trained in how to run the new machine?

(This is NOT a PC.)

By the way, what happens to the patients, the bills, the cash flow, the prescriptions, the payroll, the venders who depend on this hospital for their money and their payrolls?

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Marietta, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), November 04, 1999.

From the LA times.

< By ANNA GORMAN

In preparation for Jan. 1, 2000, the Ventura County Board of Supervisors unanimously approved spending $600,000 to replace the main computer at the county hospital.

Although county officials previously reported that all computer systems were Y2K ready, they now say that replacing the hospital's main computer is critical and already behind schedule.

If the problem isn't fixed, a Y2K snafu could disrupt patient care at Ventura County Medical Center and 22 county-run clinics, officials said.

The money allocated will fund a team of experts who will work with the county to ensure that the hospital is ready for the new year, officials said. >>

By the way, where are the 'experts" coming from - and how can they spend 600,000 dollars in only 1-1/2 months?

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Marietta, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), November 04, 1999.

Flint, Ken, Will, etc:

"Banks look good, oil looks bad."

This contradiction is important, because it highlights the disconnect we see so much of these days.

For those who can't follow what I'm talking about:

How will banks operate if their employees can't get gas to get to work? or the trucks gan't get gas to get them supplies? or the electric goes out because they gan't get gas for their diesel backup generators? or the trains can't get the electric cos. their coal?

This illustrates the tie-in of banks with oil. If you need more examples, please let me know.

-- eve (123@4567.com), November 04, 1999.

Will:

My above post was not meant for you directly. You understand the issue. Hopefully they just need examples. Maybe with enough examples it will ultimately get through.

-- eve (123@4567.com), November 04, 1999.

Will Continue:

Your post above, however, could easily have done without the name-calling. Stuff like this just hurts your credibility with those who aren't more familiar with your stuff.

-- eve (123@4567.com), November 04, 1999.

GIVE ME SOME TRUTH

I'm sick and tired of hearing things
From uptight, short-sighted, narrow-minded hypocritics
All I want is the truth
Just gimme some truth

I've had enough of reading things
By neurotic, psychotic, pig-headed politicians
All I want is the truth
Just gimme some truth

No short-haired, yellow-bellied, son of tricky dicky
Is gonna mother hubbard soft soap me
With just a pocketful of hope
Money for dope
Money for rope

I'm sick to death of seeing things
From tight-lipped, condescending, mama's little chauvinists
All I want is the truth
Just gimme some truth now

I've had enough of watching scenes
Of schizophrenic, ego-centric, paranoiac, prima-donnas
All I want is the truth now
Just gimme some truth

No short-haired, yellow-bellied, son of tricky dicky
Is gonna mother hubbard soft soap me
With just a pocketful of soap
It's money for dope
Money for rope...

All I want is the truth now
Just gimme some truth now
All I want is the truth
Just gimme some truth
All I want is the truth
Just gimme some truth...

-- (John Lennon@heaven.gov), November 04, 1999.

Dan,

Here are some links you might want to see, this might help you in your decision making process:

Go to the Senate's Committee for Y2K and read their 100-day report. Read the Executive Summary (will need Adobe Acrobat), especially check out pages 4 and 9.

http://www.senate.gov/~y2k/documents/100dayrpt/

If you don't have Adobe Acrobat, click the link below and download it free:

http://www.adobe.com/products/acrobat/readstep.html

Take a look at what firefighters might be facing:

http://www.iaffhazmat.org/html/y2k__preparedness.html

Or the different ways that embedded chips may affect us IF they aren't found or corrected. (Please note, some of the fixes are actually advice, not fixes themselves.):

http://www.iee.org/2000risk/Casebook/eg_index.htm

My advice is to stock up for as long as you can afford, preferably for at least 1-2 weeks of non-perishable foods, water, vitamins, pet food (if you have pets), another source for heat, cooking and light. If Y2K is a yawn, then at least you've lost nothing, your grocery bills will be a bit less for a while or you could donate some of the food, etc... to shelters.

My opinion: "Better to have and not need than to need and not have." (Coined by brother, Chris.)

-- Deb (vmcclell@columbus.rr.com), November 04, 1999.

It's not the odds...it's the stakes

-- (rickc@work.xcom), November 04, 1999.

Eve1234567,

You're new around here, aren't you?

-- Wilferd (WilferdW@aol.com), November 04, 1999.

eve:

I was referring to the (apparent) current status of remediation within the jurisdictions of banks and oil companies. We are trying to figure out where various industries stand today. If any key industries turn out to be in very bad shape, this of course affects many others indirectly.

It takes most people a deliberate effort to misunderstand this (but in Will continue's case, this comes naturally). Does it really make sense to ask (for example) where banks stand, and respond that OIL looks bad? Where do railroads stand? Well, oil looks bad. Where do the electric utilities stand? Well, oil looks bad. How about major manufacturers like GM? Well, oil looks bad.

Yes, yes yes! Oil looks bad. NOW, how are other industries doing. If oil turns out to be not nearly as bad as some (by no means all) claim, the actual status of these other industries becomes very important. Even though it's obviously very difficult for some people to consider more than one facet of this problem all in one day.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), November 04, 1999.

>> ...the vast majority are guaranteeing they are ready for the new millenium ...<<

There is a wise saying: There are no guarantees, only guarantors.

You may or may not trust these guarantees, depending on your view of those who are backing it up. Since you do not actually know these people, you will no doubt have to rely on your own general sense of what makes humans tick. Human nature is not easy to pin down. But it does not require a conspiracy theory to believe that people will act according to their own perception of their interests. It is not always easy to discern a motive when many motives can stand behind the same action. A frightened man may adopt the demeanor of a confident man, as protective coloration.

You may also want to consider what it is *possible* for a corporation to "guarantee". Corporations can only control what goes on inside their own organizations (if that). They are just as vulnerable to disruptions among their suppliers as we all are. Our industrial economy is a network with many nodes, some of them redundant. There is no way of knowing in advance which ones will fail, or for how long, or how these failures will ripple out. This is the great uncertainty of Y2K.

As a very wise friend of mine is fond of saying, the demand for certainty greatly exceeds the supply. However, I can supply you with one bona fide certainty: where bad code exists, it will fail. Y2K is a known source of a vast amount of bad code. Some of this code was fixed before it failed. Some of it has already failed and then was fixed. Some of it is trivial. Some of it is critical and will fail later.

If you want more "truth" than that, go fish.

-- Brian McLaughlin (brianm@ims.com), November 04, 1999.

About that hospital computer, two words: holy cow.

I'm not sure which is more amazing--that they're just getting around to this, or the the L.A. Times buried it in a four-paragraph brief. As a journalist, I am flabbergasted at the lack of news judgment by the reporter and whatever editors saw that story. They are obviously clueless about computers. I've been out of the daily newspaper grind for nearly 10 years, but if this represents the level of computer savvy at one of the nation's leading dailies...words fail me.

-- Thinman (thinman38@hotmail.com), November 04, 1999.

Flint, Are you stating that oil looks bad to you? And that if oil is bad we are indeed in the deepest kimchi?

-- Noone (Noone@none.com), November 04, 1999.

Since 1997 I have talked to every CEO, computer scientist, IT, janitor, Otis elevator repair man, Wall St. analyst, banker, etc., etc. that I could get my hands on about Y2K. I run into two types: (1) Those that are nervous (very rare), and (2) those that cannot even put two rational sentences together on the topic. This is troublesome. By far the smartest and most well-informed optimists are found on this forum. Since I still believe they are Fed shills, this narrows the field of credible optimists to almost zero.

As an aside, one of my chemistry colleagues ran in my office yesterday and told me that the CIO of [snip name of humongous chemical company that everybody knows] is total GI and can't fathom why the world is so oblivious. As usual TIFWIW (take it for what its worth). I now know that at least 6 of my 30 colleagues have now cleared out of harms way with respect to stocks and mutual funds. Does this mean the market has already priced the exodous into equity prices or that we are at the very beginning of a massive sell-off?

-- Dave (aaa@aaa.com), November 04, 1999.

Wow, something REALLY WEIRD has happened. I am starting to "like" Flint. Weird... God works in mysterious way's.

I disagree with Flint on mostly everything (as far as I know) but I have to agree with the way he looks at it. Just because one computer fails does not mean everything will fail. If Oil IS bad however it can SEVERLY impact everything else. Then you can only hope that everything else is A-OK. If not, it's slowly but surely heading direction Infomagic.

To All, I am actually impressed with this thread. I don't know if Dan is a troll or not but this thread has been really informative. And for the most part civil. Wow... kinda cool... I like it..

Peace and Love to all of you

-- STFrancis (STFrancis@heaven.com), November 04, 1999.

Flint,

Here, a premise is: "Oil is bad." Now, given that premise, to cordon off, say, banking, and state that it is something other than bad as well, is misleading, to say the least, since the disappearance of oil would lead to the disappearance of, say, banking. Wouldn't you agree?

-- eve (123@4567.com), November 04, 1999.

Dave has neatly categorized everyone into three groups: Those who are knowledgeable and realize y2k will be Very Bad; those who don't know their ass from their elbow, and shills. Very good.

Others have done similar categorization, though. There are those who really understand y2k and aren't worried, those who don't understand it at all and aren't worried, and those who have deliberately restricted their knowledge to what worries them.

This forum, like any group set up for mutual reinforcement, tends to attract that last bunch. It's part of what makes this place so entertaining, for both pessimists and anthropoligists.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), November 04, 1999.

Calibrate yourself though -

Nobody can absolutely predict "it (pick anything) WILL fail, will disappear ..., will break ..., will not break ..., will work correctly.

At best, some systems - in the whole industry being discussed worldwide - will only operate as good as they do today, if NOTHING else breaks that will affect the routine operation of the world's economies and trade.

Most likely, some companies in each industry, and each industrial sector in each region of each country will be different, will be able to operate. A portion of these that can operate will have very few failures.

A portion will have some failures, and a portion will have enough problems that production (of money transactions, of report cards, or of oil and natural gas - whatever is at stake that must be processed) simply stops. Or is harmed enough that only a few things are produced.

Now, the 64,000,000,000 dollar question becomes: what are the portions of each company in each industry in each region in each country that will be able to operate normally, how many will only suffer partial failures - but can still mange, and how many will not be able to operate successfully enough that their customers (us) will avoid harm?

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Marietta, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), November 04, 1999.

Are we having fun yet, DAN?? Did you get the answers you were looking for??

More questions? Did'nt think so! :) I'm new here but a quick study, Their will be problems 1/1/00 ALL OF YOU can't be WRONG...

-- wood dream (wood-b-dreams@mindspring.com), November 04, 1999.

Dan:

I'm an old lurker but a new poster, and just had to step in here. I have been reading and preparing for a year and a half now, but I'd say my biggest moment of truth was when my husband who works at social security came home with a memo that had an array of dates that read: 1900, 1998, 1999. (yes it was supposed to read:1998,1999,2000). This was from their new main computer and the memo was from Sept, 1999. Now SS has been working on this since 1989. The rest of the Federal Govt never got started til no sooner than 1996. (with a few minor exceptions). I know a lot of folks out there have a gripe with our govt, but honestly folks-consider the alternative. How about Russian style...

-- getitx10 (gotit@hotmail.com), November 04, 1999.

Dan, the fundamental question you had about Y2K being a conspiracy or fabricated lie I don't believe anyone has proof of that. Companies are spending money to fix the problem...lots of money, it's not a conspiracy. My husband's job was to get the networks compliant at his company and I can't remember the exact figure but it was more than a million dollars. Dan, trust me when I say this and that is stop trying to guess or second guess how bad things might or might not get next year. Do yourself a favor...and those you love and who depend on you, and prepare for 1 day, 3 days...keep preparing until you can no longer afford to do so. No money...then do what I did...go to garage sales...estate sales and goodwill stores. Have a garage sale of your own to raise money. Don't forget the preparation forum...it's a wealth of information (as well as the archives here). Also, one mistake I made in my food buying was forgetting about how many calories was actually in the food...I like vegetables so I bought a lot of vegees...then I realized that if that was all my family had to eat then whoa we were going to go hungry, then I started buying more meats, hams, tuna, anyway...hope I helped some.

-- lurker 13 (lurker13@notthis.time), November 04, 1999.

Flint

This is getting scary, either you are getting closer to my view or I am getting closer to your view but your making more sense lately. Finally narrowing it down?

-- Brian (imager@home.com), November 04, 1999.

Truth is beauty, beauty is truth. Ain't nuthin pretty 'bout Y2k.

-- Dolma Lhamo (I'm@nonymous.now), November 04, 1999.

Just gimme some truth...

-- (John Lennon@heaven.gov), November 04, 1999.

Isn't that so special. An avowed communist that lied with virtually every breath, begging for some truth... Imagine no possessions... he sure went without, didn't he? What a hypocrite!

One less wart on the ass of society says I.

-- Patrick (pmchenry@gradall.com), November 04, 1999.

Flint has always used the written word like some hand job in a bathroom. Anyone who DOESN'T is proclaimed to be 'unintelligent' and immediately discounted. This is one reason he hates Paul Milne. Flap on, Flint.

Decker enjoys pointing out his view that he is 'smarter' (duh-huh) than almost anyone he comes into contact with. Of course he's never adequately explained his claims of having a background in the farming (?) of cattle and openly announced being unaware of ANY caves being located in Wyoming (having grown up in Montana.....farming cows). I'll never forget the time he produced 'seat-belt safety' statistics to assist someone considering leaving the city in their motorhome prior to the rollover. I suggested that the gentleman would no longer require MY suggestion of purchasing a shotgun, now that he had been armed with THOSE. (-lord-) What an egotistical, DGI putz. He stated another time, that bugging out was a cowardly, unpatriotic thing to do. Wow Ken, I'm nearly distraught you don't like me. -sniff-

Eve, please don't incorrectly assume that I give a monkey's rump about how 'newbies' view my attitude OR opinion. I gave up on them in JUNE or so. The few posts I'll find the time to make, will be directed to those who DO get it. The rest can pat people like Flint and Decker on the back and goo-goo over their yada-yada 'till the cows come home.....

in about 58 days or so.

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), November 05, 1999.

FYI:

I've carried forward an issue raised in this thread to the newer "Flint, can you explain your apparent contradiction" thread, above.

-- eve (123@4567.com), November 05, 1999.

Getting a little testy there, m' dear Will. Calm down. His opinions won't affect the outcome or extents of your preparations.

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Marietta, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), November 05, 1999.