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greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

Good People,

I come to you today with sound mind and body to seek your wisdom on an essay that Mr. Roleigh Martin brought to the Forums attention a couple days ago. The essay is by a Mr. Dale Way. Mr. Way is An IEEE Y2K chair personal. Which, in my view makes his statements about Y2K noteworthy---My thinking being--if you can't believe IEEE about technical things than who can you believe. (nothing personal to any programmers on this forum).

I took two days to go over the Essay and to underscore certain points. What Mr. Way had to say was indeed very enlightening about the interrelatedness of systems, the fact that compliance was never possible. The atomic aspect of data over physical infrastructure. The exchange of data causing problems,The layers upon layers of banking infrastructue. I mean it is breathtaking in its scope.

The technical information that Mr. Way provides is one thing, but he also goes into a segment on the (my words) arrogance of programmers, he calls them the Y2Klatura (Communist elite), it almost seems and some point like he is in confession. Like he is doing some soul searching about the way the 40 year old technical infrastructure has turned out and what a joke it is.

last but not least he save the metaphors for last. "Y2K like a ship hitting the iceberg and mentioning when the screaming starts".

Ok then then next day---out of no where we get wind of this Post Script--written by Mr. Way--that basically attempts to assuage all the negative he wrote the day before.

Is it just me or what the hell is going on Here!! Then I get Anita and Hoffmeister chiming in on blah, blah,blah,opinion,blah,blah,most problems have occured,blah,blah,

Somebody concur that they give this guy Mr. Way and his essay as much credibility as I did.

-- David Butts (dciinc@aol.com), November 03, 1999

Answers

It would appear that people who come out in public forums may be getting visits from folks who persuade them one way on another to keep their mouths shut and or retract what they had previously said. This is not the only one to back pedal. In the day of the Clintons, I would believe it.

-- goldbug (goldbug@mint.com), November 03, 1999.

How about this from Steve Kube's essay?

-- Critt Jarvis (critt@critt.com), November 03, 1999.

That is what happens when you say it is real.. I have been programing for 20 years. I have been posting here and lurking for many moons. When I used my real e-mail address THE ONES I WORK FOR FOUND OUT AND I ALMOST LOST MY JOB.

It is because they are scared .That is no one knows what is going to become of Y2K.. I don't know ether. But most of us that program have a baaaaaddddd feeling about what is coming. I make robot's,One of the things that some think won't work.. when the YEAR HIT'S. They are right some won't work... But how many ! no one knows. OH well my first posting was as The Tired programer I don't care any more. I am still Tired and don't care if they fire me, You just have to look out for yourself and try to prepare... My Real E-MAIL ADDRESS IS harpoon@u-n-i.net And many Thanks for the replies that were sent to me . It made me feel a lot better.. Thank's HARPOON

-- Harpoon (harpoon@u-n-i.net), November 03, 1999.


Yes it was an excellent essay, no I haven't seen his own rebuttal to his own essay.

I think we all have days when we regret saying or writing something and the next day we attempt to correct our mistake. He probably realized that all this solid truthfulness wasn't exactly politically correct and so he quickly tried to make amends lest the thought police give him some real hell.

By the way, I gave a rather silly response to a really stupid thread a couple of days ago, but like my father use to say " Ask a stupid question, you'll get a stupid answer ".

-- Stanley Lucas (StanleyLucas@WebTv.net), November 03, 1999.


Thanks Harpoon. I don't think you are the only one who is tired. Sometimes I feel that I have lost a battle before I have even begun to fight the war.

Just chaulk up another bad feeling.

-- Mike Lang (webflier@erols.com), November 03, 1999.



Hi David,

Having been a fledgling EE (2 years of EE before switching to physics), I was more than surprised to read Mr. Way's opinion.

As the elected head of the IEEE, his opinion is political dynamite. I assume he received a bit of feedback on it. :)

However, IMO, he's quite correct about the real problem -- the interdependencies within sophisticated systems. Whether those systems be combinations of companies/gov't agencies or of combinations of computers networked in an oil field or refinery.

I've discovered that most people simply cannot understand complex system interdependencies. They stick to the parts they can understand, and forget that what they know is only a small part of the overall system. Then they'll say there can't be problems because there won't be any in the part they know.

I know many, many really good computer people, farmers, engineers, etc. who all seem to forget the bigger picture -- and most won't even think about the bigger picture even when prompted (and I've done my share of prompting).

When I talk about systems, BTW, I don't mean only computer systems. The same behavior occurs in economic/social systems, political systems, science, and so on. As a result, decisions are made for the parts of the whole that are understood which are often detrimental to the wider, interdependent system.

What Mr. Way is saying, is that our Y2k decisions have been inadequate, which will result in widespread failure in the larger, interconnected system.

-- Dean -- from (almost) Duh Moines (dtmiller@midiowa.net), November 03, 1999.


I feel the same, I am so sick and tired of all the waffling. One day I'm terrified because of these IMO credible statements, the next I think I am losing my mind, because spin control at its finest is being interjected. I even went back to the original article and re- read it. I don't usually have a chance to jump on-line till very late at night after everyone is tucked away. Usually after I should be tucked away. I always loved statistics, never really wanted black and white answers - till now. It is kind of nice to know I'm not the only one wondering about this.

-- MIS (KarlaCALIF@aol.com), November 03, 1999.

This essay, along with the oil chat material, has bummed me out. It is highly credible. I think we are kinda doomed. But the real reason is more than computer systems as people here know--it's the social system which is no longer viable. There is a deep, deep logic to our universe. When a civilization reaches a certain point and too much is messed up, the REAL powers that be, not the temporal one, ring the bell and say, "Game Over."

-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), November 03, 1999.

A point I attempt to keep in mind as these posts roll by... the best most informed guess, is just that.

The most detailed explanations point a framework to think about the components and systems.

When I was training to be an operator on a nuclear plant, the Navy nuc systems didn't seem cutting edge. Later it becomes obvious, there is less technology because the systems have to be more reliable...

Take a look at any box of food. Look at the list of ingredients.Each of those represents a supplier, some oversea's. All those suppliers, all those warehouses, all those ship's and trucks and all those computer systems... ...for one box of Cereal. Toasted Cereal.

-- squid (itsdark@down.here), November 04, 1999.


Mara -- it's just reality (A is A). Carrying capacity. Chaos theory.

You can't have a society that has become as fragile as this one, both technologically and sociologically, and expect it to continue.

The technology is beyond all but a small percentage of the population, and THE DIFFERENCES OF OPINION you see from even the technological elite is indicative that even they don't have a good grasp of the whole picture, nor even how their specialty even fits in.

The there is the rest of society -- the corporate vice presidents of ride sharing and parking lot striping, the DMV clerk, the drone of barely human intelligence who has trouble finding the right preprogammed button on the Jack-in-the-Box cash register. ALL THEM ARE GONNA GO.

Farmers (like Paul Milne!!) and ranchers and various artisans (machinists, carpenters, miners, etc.) will be the new elite (at least until the charismatic a*holes get another government going).

-- A (A@AisA.com), November 04, 1999.



Squid: Re your box of cereal. Like so many things, your box of cereal nowadays is infinitely more complicated than it needs to be, just because it CAN be made complicated. Boxes of cereal have been marketed for decades. It's only since the 1950s that you have seen the addition of various esoteric (and mainly useless) ingredients, the proliferation of varieties, and the sugarization and colorization of it all. And the tremendous increase in price relative to other stuff (due to tremendous advertising and shelf space expenses).

Cereal, like so many other things, can actually be done simply and regionally, if not locally. Remember, that's the way it started. A multi-national conglomerate is not necessary to get corn flakes and wheat flakes to you.

-- A (A@AisA.com), November 04, 1999.


AAAAAA,

I can almost hear squid laughing from deep down in the darkness.

I doubt that Mr Squid would refute your brilliant analysis of a box of cereal.

But I suspect he was using the complex box of cereal as a Metaphor for the complexity of the issue at hand!!

-- d.b. (dciinc@aol.com), November 04, 1999.


d.b. and squid -- I'm not minimizing the problem in general. For example, there is an essay "I, Pencil" detailing the complexity of what appears to be a simple writing instrument. The wood from one place, the enamel from another, the clay from another, and the various fabrication steps.

I'm simply saying that because a penny can be saved by using Thai labor, that a Thai component will be used instead of one from Bozeman, Montana. If (when) TSHTF, then the Bozeman component will be used. And if the Thai or Bozeman component is not really necessary, but was adding solely for marketing purposed, it could well be dropped from the product. And the less complicated a product, the more likely it can be produced locally, in many locations in the U.S., rather than in one super conglomerant plant in Mexico or South Korea.

I THINK the "I, Pencil" essay is on Foundation for Economic Education (FEE) site,

-- A (A@AisA.com), November 04, 1999.


I suppose this is not reflected above. Why are you waiting on profound proclamations from supposed "experts"? I have been preparing without such for a year...Read,...absorb...do what you have already done...prepare for the event of an emergency. Just do what you think is prudent. What is it with the "I'll get ready when the honchos say I should" thing? I don't understand. Help me to understand your hesitance?

-- Donna (moment@pacbell.net), November 04, 1999.

David:

It's my understanding that Mr. Way read the responses of TB2000 posters and felt his original essay had been misinterpreted. He also had problems with Roleigh using the "more pessimistic than Yourdon" statement. His P.S. was an attempt to clarify his original essay.

This isn't MY opinion. It's basically what Roleigh said in his preface to the P.S.

My technical opinion on both the original essay and the P.S. (putting aside the problems I had with his Enterprise System statements) was and is that he said the same thing in both places. That is why I said there was no compromise in the second versus the first.

Personally, I didn't put emphasis on the "speech writing", nor did I read any of the responses to the original essay and P.S. (which was already available by the time I read the thread.) I tend to skip over the "Fellow Americans...we are gathered here today to discuss the most relevant..." portions of ANY speech in anticipation of the "meat." In the same way, I ignore the comments of the talking heads (talking about speeches aired on T.V. here) who attempt to tell ME what was just said, and what I just heard myself.

-- Anita (notgiving@anymore.com), November 05, 1999.



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