I am a subscriber to y2k newswire. I know that some of you do not like Mike Adams and his business, but today I received an email that was I thought, well, rather interesting.

Listed below this thread, is another called "Oil Chat" A woman by the name of DD1Light is an oil consultant. Well, I guess she was put in touch with Gary, and he asked her some questions re: oil. The answers she gave are a little more detailed than what is outlined in the "Oil Chat" Thread. You can find the questions asked by North and answered by her at the following URL

www.soybean.com/10279log.htm

Gordon, if you read this I'd be interested in your feedback, as well as ANY programmer who has worked in oil. I work in health care, so oil is not my area of expertise. However, her statements need to be verified and possibly clarified.

BTW Gordon, are you still planning to post a thread on Russia & oil this week or in the near future?

I am hot-link impaired: Linkmeister, where are you? My thanks to anyone in advance who can do that for me.

I hope this Q & A between North and DD is worth posting. At least I think it is. I hope the URL works.

-- luann (flataufm@hutchtel.net), November 01, 1999

Answers

Something is fishy about this so called expert. I know something about oil and gas wells. First, I've never seen any down hole computer chips, or wiring strung down an active well. They simply place pipe down the well and either pump the crude up with a pump jack, or they pump saline water down and force the petro up. They service wells all the time which means they pull all the pipe out of the hole and repair or re fracture the casing as needed. To state that you would have to redrill is wrong simply because a so called "RAM" chip gave up the ghost. Many gas wells simply have a "christmas tree" at the top of the well and the gas comes out under natural pressure. It is then pressurized in the pipeline by a "gas compressor station". This station is usually stand alone and the engine that compresses the gas actually runs off the gas in the system. It also produces the electricity needed there at the compressor site usually. Again, I am no expert on this, but I have lived my entire life around oil and gas wells in Texas and now live within a 1/4 mile of an active gas well here in AR. No wiring going down that well, I just went and looked at it.

-- dozerdoctor (dozerdoc@yahoo.com), November 01, 1999.

I agree, there is a smell of fish about this. But I also detect at least a grain of truth. We need credentials, verification, documentation, etc. Without it, this is only scare-mongering. There is much at stake here. We need to seperate the wheat from the chaff. Can Mr North verify that he put forth these questions? Who is the intermediary? Inquiring minds need to know.

-- A Concerned Sceptic (CWHale67@aol.com), November 01, 1999.

There are some wells that most certainly have electronic computorization downwell. Wiring down the well running and monitor pressures for injection and production are common. Yes there are simple wells that just pump or flow naturely, but there are also wells that are very complex i.e. computorized.

-- Oil & Gas (jimdev@telusplanet.net), November 01, 1999.

If DD Reed is a phony, she's absolutely the best phony I've ever seen in my entire life and I've been around a good while. I have no experience whatsover in the oil bidness (as J.R. would say), but her comments are totally credible in her way of delivery. She knows too much to be making all this up, or so it certainly seems.

Then there is the question of why someone would go to all the trouble of making all this rather lengthy commentary up out of whole cloth in the first place. What's the payoff for her if she is a fake? None that I can see. A hoax is not something worth putting a lot of effort into unless it'll make you a pile of money and this is a free post.

I think it's prudent to assume DD is perhaps 75% correct and that's scary enough.

-- cody varian (cody@y2ksurvive.com), November 01, 1999.

As a sidelight, you guys may be interested to know that Drudge is reporting (headline-no story yet) that Klinton is "planning to give millions of $ worth of oil to Serbia this winter, to keep them from freezing". Well, maybe.

-- Jon Johnson (narnia4@usa.net), November 01, 1999.

On Gary North's site this very url is linked as of Nov 1 99. If he had the interveiw, wouldn't he have posted it himself? I am not one to discount a possible problem, but this is so serious it needs to be verified somehow.

-- Robert Holmes (rholmes@perceptionet.com), November 01, 1999.

It seems credible to me, but who the hell am I? I like how she distinguishes her knowledge from her opinion, which is something we are not used to on this board. But one thing puzzles me...

Why hasn't Gary North posted it on his own site? Maybe tomorrow.

Thanks for putting it up, but I am still waiting for documentation.

-- semper paratus (always@ready.now), November 01, 1999.

Robert,

The "Oil" post on Gary's site is not this thread. It is a thread from a month ago.

-- semper paratus (always@ready.now), November 01, 1999.

Sorry for the delay on the Russia thing, wife and baby are sick. Not much time for posting. Will post ASAP, prob tommorrow.

As for DD1, I know that there are some very complex drilling ops. In the last 5 years, the technolgies have changed signifigantly. I can't confirm or deny that they will fail. I do have concerns about the entire petroleum sector as it has recieved little if any scrutiny. Certainly nothing like the electr. industry.

As to pipelines, I have said before that I am aware that almost every "products" pipeline in the US is going to shut down between 4-8 hours. over the rollover. I can also confirm that many have been working very, very hard to fix the Y2K problem. And with mixed results. I have heard of several failures first hand. The reason for the shutdown is simply prudence. They pass through many different juice zones so to speak, and so shutting down and staging a comeback slowly is certainly prudent. This WILL occur. It is not fiction.

Also, many refineries are planning the same thing as far as reduced capacities over the transition. I have heard first hand. Now, let me also say that to characterize all refineries as bandaided nightmares is bullshit. The people I know that work in refineries are decent, safety minded (their lives depend on it) individuals. I think DD's slam is mostly unfounded, however there are always a few bad apples around an orchard. However, they're the exception not the rule.

-- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), November 01, 1999.

I'm not in the oil business, but regarding the following statement supposedly made by D.D. Reed:

"Refineries are a mess. We (USA) have some of the oldest, nastiest refineries in use today, as we have been unable to build new ones much for many years. ("Not in my backyard" syndrome, etc.)"

Please check the "Boxscore" section on hydrocarbonprocessing.com to see the number of refineries and types currently in various stages of construction in the United States and the world. Several states are listed. I don't get the impression from this list that we have been unable to build new refineries for "many years."

Texas is listed with 25, Louisana with 20. Now these could be additonal construction at existing sites, I don't know. Many of these sites look like they are designed to make products other than fuel. But, again, the terminology to me is foriegn. I would be interested in the opinions of anyone in the business who might take a look at these listings.

-- Buster Collins (BustrCollins@aol.com), November 01, 1999.

Dozer doctor - The "RAM" DD refers to is not random access memory, but a large fast acting valve designed to rapidly stop excess flow and oil spills. DD in another posts states that these valves freeze or jams up after activaation and cannot be reopened. Hence the re-drilling.

But on another note, DD has apparently lost 20 years since the first oil chat post. But maybe I am just picking.

dave

-- dave (wootendave@hotmail.com), November 01, 1999.

Ok- in a previous life I worked on rigs as a commercial diver. The rams DD is talking about are not chips of any kind but are mechanical/hydraulic rams which are part of the blow out prevention equipment. They are designed to fail "safe" which means they actuate and cut off the flow of oil or gas so it stays in the hole not escaping on to the rigs. The rams are metal and I believe what is being said is that in order to get the well back onstream the rams themselves have to be drilled through. The rams are designed to hold back the pressure from the well which can be measured at the many hundreds and sometimes thousands of pounds per square inch. Only accident I ever witness involved a wire tool operator putting a low pressure gauge on a high pressure line. When it was opened it blew across the rig floor and put a crack in a roughnecks skull, through the safety helmet.

-- drac (greenspanisgod@frb.giov), November 01, 1999.

IF this is true, than would not many others have the same info and same opinions.

If others have the same info and opinions would they not agree that this poses a most serious threat to continuity of supply of oil.

If continuity of supply is seriously threatened, would not those in the oil patch begin punching new holes like it was 1979?

Last I checked the domestic active rig count was dismally low and new well activity also low.

If those with the knowledge and the capital shared D.D.'s opinion, would not oil exploration and drilling be at a high pace for all of 1999?

Does anyone have recent info on activity of Baker-Hughes, Schlumberger, Halliburton, Dresser, etc the oil service sector should be jumping if the above scenario is true...

-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), November 01, 1999.

Dave, you wrote:

But on another note, DD has apparently lost 20 years since the first oil chat post. But maybe I am just picking.

I think you misread the header:

"Our Oct. 26th ('99) chat session presented the opinions of D.D. Reed, a 30-year oil industry consultant. "

To me, this reads "30-year" or 30 years of oil industry consulting, not a 30-year-OLD consultant. And I believe that is how she was initially presented on the chat thread.

I wish she *didn't* sound so credible - her scenario is breath- taking, as in "G A S P !"

-- (snoozin@no.more), November 01, 1999.

Maybe the world is just catching on to the oil and gas threat. This article calls a bottom in natural gas for summer of 1999 and projects drmatic improvement (from driller's perspective) higher oil and gas prices (potential for double digit price increases this winter):

http://fnews.yahoo.com/iionline/99/10/27/industry_991027.html

Oct 27, 1999 Oil & Gas: As Oil Prices Recover, So Will these Two Stocks Analyst: Bob Hirschfeld Last week, when Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB - news) released its earnings, the companys chief executive officer Euan Baird noted in a news release that client E&P (exploration and production) spending was on the way up. He added, 'Third quarter results for our ongoing oil businesses confirm that the second quarter of 1999 was the bottom of the cycle.'

Investors were apparently listening. Following the earnings release, Schlumbergers stock had a nice rally and finished the week at $59.88, more than $5 higher than the $54.75 closing price on the day earnings were released. Tuesday, the shares closed down $1.56 to $58.56, on a day when the wider markets sagged.

Why should a bullish comment from a CEO be followed by such a rally? After all, Schlumbergers third-quarter profits were off 60% from the year-ago period, the fifth straight quarter were profits fell.

Because the company is something of a barometer for the oil industry. Its performance is closely tied to oil prices, and now that prices are recovering, its expected that so will Schlumbergers bottom line. Plus, Baird is a credible source when it comes to assessing his industrys prospects. A bullish forecast from him carries a lot of weight.

When Baird says the June quarter was the 'bottom,' you can rest assured that there's no place to go but up.

Its worth noting that Schlumberger's third quarter was a bumpy bottom indeed. Earnings of $0.25 per share met the consensus, but fell well below last year's $0.63 per share. North American oil services revenue was down 23% from the year-ago level, and operating income fell 13% from the year-ago level.

But both services revenue and operating income were up sequentially, which backs up Bairds forecast. Services rose sequentially by 18%, while operating income was up 200%.

Analysts are generally bullish about both Schlumberger and energy prices. After Schlumberger's earnings release, analysts at Prudential upgraded the firm to a strong buy, while those at First Union reiterated their strong buy recommendation.

John Tysseland, a Raymond James analyst who has upgraded the company to a buy recommendation, says Schlumberger's oil services business, which accounts for 90% of earnings, is very exposed to the international market, which has been slower to recover than the North American gas drilling market, where improvements are far more conspicuous.

Tysseland also underscores the importance of Schlumberger's exposure to natural gas fundamentals, which are improving on greater confidence in oil prices, in supply restraints imposed by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, and greater visibility on E&P bids and rig contracts. In short, says Tysseland, there are 'more bids, more visibility, and more rigs.'

The good news for Schlumberger shareholders is that higher natural gas prices will lead to stronger revenue growth for the company.

The natural gas market has been tight of late. On October 20, the American Gas Association reported additions, or 'injections,' of 6.0 bcf (billion cubic feet), well below last year's rate of 8.3 bcf, and the lowest weekly level since the AGA began releasing data in the 1970s. analysts have argued that the natural gas supply/demand situation, more than any time in 20 years, creates the potential for double- digit price increases this winter In recent weeks, Raymond James , adding that recent improvements 'may be just a prelude to an extended era of profitability for equity investors in natural gas oriented stocks.'

The Raymond James model factors a 3% decrease in U.S. production versus last year and a normal winter (which implies a 10% jump in demand from year-ago levels. The model indicates the potential for very low gas storage levels of 300 bcf by the end of March, which would likely produce a spot natural gas price over $10.

Even on a more conservative assumption of 'a 5% warmer than normal winter,' there is still the possibility of a 'tight' storage level in the 655-bcf range by end-of-winter, far below last year's 1335 bcf level. According to Tysseland, 'three years of below-normal winters have masked normalized demand for natural gas.'

Drillers with an exposure to natural gas are going to benefit from the tight market.

Among the 'most favorite' equities of the Raymond James analysts is Nabors Industries (AMEX:NBR - news) , which is highly leveraged to North American natural gas drilling. Though the world's largest land driller reported third-quarter earning under consensus (at $0.04 versus $0.05), because of worse-than-expected offshore platform and international rig utilization, its 'gas-directed drilling exploded during the quarter.' Nabors' gas rig count increased 28% on the quarter, bringing the company's engaged rigs to 103, versus 79 during the second quarter.

More rigs translates into more revenue.

The near-term target on Nabors shares is $30 per share, and on Tuesday, the stock closed down $0.25 to $24.06. Though Raymond James lowered estimates for 1999 to $0.24 per share from $0.30 per share, the downtick reflects Nabors exposure to drilling markets that have not kicked in as yet. But they likely will, partly on strong natural gas fundamentals, partly on an improved drilling environment brought about by higher gas prices.

As the gas market recovers, so will the companys earnings. After 1999, the outlook improves drastically. Raymond James forecasts earnings of $0.80 per share in 2000 and $1.35 per share in 2001. That is an earnings ramp that would do a tech-stock proud.

Bottom line:

As oil and natural gas prices recover, investors would do well to pump Schlumberger and Nabors Industries into their portfolios.

-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), November 01, 1999.

after i read this thread i called a friend of mine who is a petroleum engineer, works in the oil service industry for the past 10 years.

he is not aware of any continuous down hole electronic monitoring that is going on, he doubts that any electronic device would survive the environment, sulfur dioxide, heat salt water. one of the harshest environments around.

the "rams" that are attached to wells are anti-blowout devices which are not electronic but totally mechanical devices which are frequently tested by the companies as they to can be corroded by the salt water, sulfur dioxide, etc. they are totally contained but allow you to work on the well after it has had a pressure surge that have triggered the rams to shut off the flow of gas/oil from the well safely. they are put in place so you can safely bleed off any pressure surges form the well.

he wondered what this lady was talking about? since he is unaware of any antiblowout device that is electrically operated, they are set up with a compressed air/oil cylinder so that no matter what happens to the rig these things are self contained, you open a valve manually and the compreeed air/oil goes to two hydraulic cylinders that shut the ram on the pipe, either crushing the pipe or shearing the pipe and pinching the end. low tech, meant to be that way all it needs is a hand on a lever. these must be routinely checked for pressure and function on the rigs.

roughneck

-- roughneck (mexdoc@blackgold.com), November 01, 1999.

It looks like D.D. may be on to something big. A quick search indicates exploration is picking up " especially in North America".

In a former career I worked for Dresser Industries. If oil or gas is going to becoming into increased demand, the sector to show the activity first will be the oil services sector. For investors, this could be a significant market development, especially if Y2K in the USA is less than a 6. It has been a while since I've studied the oil services sector - definetly needs more study!

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/991022/d.html

Friday October 22, 12:01 am Eastern Time FOCUS-Halliburton sees energy business improvement DALLAS, Oct 21 (Reuters) - Halliburton Co.(NYSE:HAL - news), the world's biggest oilfield services firm, said on Thursday its core Energy Services business saw a modest recovery in the third quarter which it expects to continue in subsequent quarters.

Halliburton said its overall earnings fell 70 percent from the third quarter of 1998, after stripping out nonrecurring charges in the year- earlier period, because of reduced investment outlays by oil companies following last year's price collapse.

Net income fell to $58 million or $0.13 per diluted share from $195 million or $0.44 per share in the same period of 1998, after stripping out nonrecurring merger and restructuring charges of $722 million or $1.64 per share in the 1998 quarter.

The charges, which stemmed from Halliburton's acquisition of oilfield equipment firm Dresser Industries and cost-cutting measures, led to an overall loss of $527 million or $1.20 per share in the third quarter of 1998.

Total revenues, which also include Halliburton's Engineering and Construction and Dresser Equipment businesses, fell to $3.53 billion from $4.22 billion in the third quarter of 1998.

Reported earnings per share were a penny higher than the First Call/Thomson Financial consensus estimate of $0.12.

Analysts quickly lowered their estimates after Halliburton warned on October 5 that earnings would fall short of Wall Street's consensus estimate which then stood at $0.19 per share.

Halliburton said in a statement that third quarter revenues and income were lower than year-earlier levels because of reduced spending by its worldwide energy industry customers who account for approximately 85 percent of its total revenues.

But Chief Executive Officer Dick Cheney said recent strength in oil and natural gas prices had lifted customers' cashflows considerably and that customers were now beginning to increase spending in some areas, particularly in North America.

``I am optimistic that as our customers' year 2000 spending budgets are finalized, we will see further activity increases throughout the world,'' he said.

Halliburton President David Lesar said in a conference call with analysts that operating income at the Energy Services business rose to $56 million from $49 million in the second quarter which marked a low for earnings in the current cycle.

``We expect that improvement to continue in future quarters,'' he added.

Lesar said major oil companies, some preoccupied with the completion of mega-mergers, seemed to be taking a wait-and-see approach to investment in finding and developing new reserves.

``We haven't seen a major tick up in spending although we expect it to start fairly soon,'' he said.

Halliburton's third quarter earnings showed a similar trend to those of Schlumberger Ltd.(NYSE:SLB - news), the world's second biggest oilfield services company.

Schlumberger said on Monday its third-quarter net income fell 60 percent to $139 million or $0.25 per diluted share from $351 million or $0.63 per share but surpassed the second quarter, thus breaking a sequential decline over the preceding four quarters.

``The third quarter results for our ongoing oilfield businesses confirm that the second quarter of 1999 was the bottom of the cycle,'' Schlumberger Chairman and Chief Executive Euan Baird said in the company's earnings statement.

Halliburton's stock closed $1-1/2 higher at $37-1/4 on Thursday and Schlumberger finished $9/16 firmer at $59-1/8. Halliburton's earnings were released after the market closed.

-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), November 01, 1999.

We are not exploring/drilling in N.A. now because we know there is very little to find. We knew about all the North American oil in 1954. The big jump in activity after the opec price increases found very little new oil and every failure is an expenisive loss. See the requiem website.

-- Sand Mueller (smueller@azalea.net), November 02, 1999.

If the CDC results in severe interruption of oil supplies (domestic and imported), yes, prices for refined products will go much higher. This doesn't automatically mean a windfall of increased earnings for the producers -- pushing their stock prices up -- if they have little or nothing to sell, a higher price does them no good.

Recently a 6" high-pressure gas main was breached by a construction crew here in Atlanta. The break was located just off the shoulder of I-85. Traffic was completely closed, both directions, 5 lanes each way, for about 9 hours, including the evening rush, which is bad on a good day. Displaced traffic completely jammed all available surface roads in the area till nearly midnight.

The reason for the delay (so the local news told it) is that the steel gas line had to be squeezed shut on each side of the break, to stop the gas flow. No actual repair could even begin till that was done. Some hydraulic rig was used to mash the pipe, they said. A couple of false starts made the job take even longer than usual.

How the mashed pipe was eventually removed, I don't know. But traffic was running the next morning.

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), November 02, 1999.

Buster, DDs essentially right in terms of US having older refineries. The last groundup (not counting specialties like asphalt or chemicals) was Valero Corpus - built back in the 60s. 'Essentially' right because we've shut down most of our older smaller units. Those still operating have been upgraded and expanded so much that they're extensively newer units added on older core distillation units, so much of the operation is indeed newer. That's whats so scary- we now have mega refineries that are almost unfathomably complex. Im not a techie but common sense would tell me remediation would also be.

The website you listed cites expansion projects on existing refineries. Williams out of Tulsa tried a ground up in Ariz a few years ago. It just can't be done. The neighbors and environmentalist won't allow it.

Porter, If you were 'in the know' and in the oil industry, you wouldn't be starting new multi-month drilling projects. (The uptick in drilling you cite is basically due to oil economics doubling in the last year.) You'd be into spot and futures markets in a big way. This is what has been confusing to me. This NYMEX market does not reflect any big rollover risks. Oct has been a down month for oil prices- off about $2 / bl from the highs and the 'crack spreads' do not reflect big refining rollover risks. The 'heat crack' (the spread that reflects refiner's margins in making diesel and heating oil) has recently been near 15 year lows. Gasoline cracks are below average. If the magnitude of this prob are as extensive as DD contends, surely she isn't the only one aware of them. Foreign producers, refiners, traders, engineers, upper level execs, and pipeline executives would be all over this opportunity like our Prez in heat. They aren't. DD wouldn't have to mess with her lousy little propane project, she could take a position, sit back and enjoy her lucrative retirement.

On the other hand gold and equity markets aren't reflecting any rollover risks either....

-- Downstreamer (downstream@bigfoot.com), November 02, 1999.

BusterColllins--is it possible the new refineries are a *response* to the oil/gas problem, and not a refutation of its reality? I have read elsewhere that it would be easier to build a new refinery than to fix the old one. Just a thought. And to Gordon, with no disrespect: if DD's claims are 'unfounded' and the refineries are not 'bandaided', let me list some of the explosions lately: Exxon in Benicia CA, Tosco in Martinez CA (1/97 and 3/99), Mobil in Torrance CA, Mobil in Richmond CA, Clark Island in Illinois, Texaco in Los Angeles CA (11/96), Texaco in Wilmington CA (1/97), Puget Sound in WA, (11/98), Cross Oil in Arkansas, Coastal in Corpus Christi, TX. (Those without dates are this year.) All these were massive, workers often killed, and caused total shutdown of each plant. This does not count the power plants and pipelines that have blown lately; I won't go into that list now. Nor does it count refinery explosions in India and Australia. Something's wrong here. Either our refineries are unsafe at any speed, or they are being blown up by attempted remediation. Neither of these alternatives makes me comfortable. I suggest you give DD some benefit of the doubt, because whoever she really is, she's trying to expose the truth about oil and gas for 2000. I also suggest you read the careful evasions by Janet Abrams and Joel Willemson in the q/a of the Y2k symposium in DC (end of September 99) that Gary North covered in several links in mid-October. They *would not* discuss the future of refineries although questioned three consecutive times--and these are our official government spokespersons. Good God, if they won't give us even a happy-face statement, what horror lies ahead? Goodye, Televisonland.

-- stantheman (heidrich@presys.com), November 02, 1999.

TROLL ALERT ---

It appears that we have some Polly Trolls now posing as experts! Yes, trolling for dollars, or shall I say a new sophisticated way of polly trolling is to simply pretend to honestly call into question by posing as "experts" in the oil field.

Excuse me, but IF these "idiots" above really knew the oil industry, they wouldn't be stupid enough to make such posts, as they would know that the proof would surface regarding DD's Claims.

I'll be back ... with documented facts to prove oil well technicals and the embeddeds problem. "Hasta La Vista, pollies"...

[the Pollies have definitely sunk to new and lower levels of depravity...but will they sink lower as we get closer?? YES!]

-- R.C. (racambab@mailcity.com), November 02, 1999.

To any newcomers who've not seen these older threads:

Oil has been discussed on many threads here. Some of those were the following which I posted to provide some insights into the oil industry. No one has been able to refute the data, period. There's more than just this, but the following will get newbies up to speed.

My Initial Oil Industry Report http://greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000xLU

More follow up to the first Oil Report http://greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=0010Vc

2nd oil report http://greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001KHH

47 year low in Domestic Oil driling rigs... http://greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001ZsO

Now, I'll return shortly with once again documentation to show that these oil wells in question (as mentioned by DD) are loaded with embedded systems...including a part by part, system by system rendering from an oil equipment companies website as part of their Y2K legal disclosures required by LAW on their 10-Q SEC filing.

(what a bunch of moron pollies)

Later, I'll start another thread to analyze the DD interview itself.

-- R.C. (racambab@mailcity.com), November 02, 1999.

Before posting to the Pollies...

To Gordon

who said:

"Also, many refineries are planning the same thing as far as reduced capacities over the transition. I have heard first hand. Now, let me also say that to characterize all refineries as bandaided nightmares is bullshit. The people I know that work in refineries are decent, safety minded (their lives depend on it) individuals. I think DD's slam is mostly unfounded, however there are always a few bad apples around an orchard. However, they're the exception not the rule.

-- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), November 01, 1999.

Gordon --- You're way off there, pardner on refineries. While it's best not to deal in generalities in many issues, this is one issue that is at the minimum a majority of cases. Virtually the entire US refining biz is decrepit at its core base. Someone else above stated that refineries are old and have been built over, time and again in modernizations. Indeed, these refineries have been "band-aided" together, so to speak. Personally, I'd have chosen a different metaphor myself, but it still fits the basic idea of the oil refining biz. They ARE NIGHTMARES. I know a lot of fellows who retired early because safety and proper maintenance have taken a back seat to CEO demands for greater production. Major overhauls and routine maintenance are routinely cancelled by top corporate honchos in most oil firms. Too busy meeting Wall Street demands for higher profits for next quarter. The people who work in refineries ARE decent minded folks but they're not making company policy, the CEOs and Boards of Directors are the policymakers and they don't give a d--n. If it will affect next quarter earnings negatively they won't allow it. Thus, the industry has been steadily sinking lower and lower. The EPA problems have only compounded things. It's not just a few bad apples, its all across the board.

-- R.C. (racambab@mailcity.com), November 02, 1999.

To Buster,

Regarding Refinery construction. These are upgrades and adding new units. A lot of companies are now working to develope new CLEANER FUELS MANDATED by the EPA hence adding new units or sections to these existing refineries.

-- R.C. (racambab@mailcity.com), November 02, 1999.

To the Polly TROLLS,

Dozerdoctor said:

"Something is fishy about this so called expert. I know something about oil and gas wells. First, I've never seen any down hole computer chips, or wiring strung down an active well. They simply place pipe down the well and either pump the crude up with a pump jack, or they pump saline water down and force the petro up. They service wells all the time which means they pull all the pipe out of the hole and repair or re fracture the casing as needed. To state that you would have to redrill is wrong simply because a so called "RAM" chip gave up the ghost. Many gas wells simply have a "christmas tree" at the top of the well and the gas comes out under natural pressure. It is then pressurized in the pipeline by a "gas compressor station". This station is usually stand alone and the engine that compresses the gas actually runs off the gas in the system. It also produces the electricity needed there at the compressor site usually. Again, I am no expert on this, but I have lived my entire life around oil and gas wells in Texas and now live within a 1/4 mile of an active gas well here in AR. No wiring going down that well, I just went and looked at it.

dozerdoctor (dozerdoc@yahoo.com), November 01, 1999. >>>>>>

Dozer---see my technical response below after I list your other 'buddies' equally moronic comments ... You don't KNOW anything about the biz! You're describing an oil well that is what we call in the biz, a "stripper" well... which are very shallow, and produce piddling amounts of oil. Stripper systems themselves are indeed manual because they don't produce enough oil to make it worthwhile to automate it. DD is talking about the type of oil wells that make up between 80 to 90% of all the oil wells both on and offshore. These things are indeed loaded. Go to ENRON's website if you don't believe me. The IEEE report (I think it was that one) made a great deal on this very issue. SEE THE BRUCH BEACH REPORT FOR SPECIFIC ANALYSIS OF THE NATURAL GAS EMBEDDEDS PROBLEM... Nat. Gas IS LOADED with Embeddeds and problems...and is WELL DOCUMENTED THAT THE INDUSTRY HAS PROBLEMS by their OWN ADMISSION... See the 10-Qs for some of these companies like Western Resources and more. We've posted the 10-Qs here just recently. WHERE WERE YOU THEN??? HMMM???? Pollies are toast.

YOU ONLY SHOW YOUR IGNORANCE

----Next: troll#2, please ---

A Concerned Skeptic:

"I agree, there is a smell of fish about this. But I also detect at least a grain of truth. We need credentials, verification, documentation, etc. Without it, this is only scare-mongering. There is much at stake here. We need to seperate the wheat from the chaff. Can Mr North verify that he put forth these questions? Who is the intermediary? Inquiring minds need to know."

-- A Concerned Sceptic (CWHale67@aol.com), November 01, 1999.

>>>>>>>>>> My response:

VERIFICATION ??????? You want verification???? Documentation??? There's been plenty on previous threads here... where were you before when we posted documention??? Well, Look further down below ... and we'll post some more ... how about specific system models and parts from an Oil Supplier's website on their SEC 10-Q Y2K disclosure section where by law they have to post this data??? ... AND its updated it seems weekly or perhaps daily as new parts are deemed compliant... last update was just last week.

------------ NEXT TROLL is Roughneck

Roughneck said:

"after i read this thread i called a friend of mine who is a petroleum engineer, works in the oil service industry for the past 10 years. he is not aware of any continuous down hole electronic monitoring that is going on, he doubts that any electronic device would survive the environment, sulfur dioxide, heat salt water. one of the harshest environments around.

the "rams" that are attached to wells are anti-blowout devices which are not electronic but totally mechanical devices which are frequently tested by the companies as they to can be corroded by the salt water, sulfur dioxide, etc. they are totally contained but allow you to work on the well after it has had a pressure surge that have triggered the rams to shut off the flow of gas/oil from the well safely. they are put in place so you can safely bleed off any pressure surges form the well.

he wondered what this lady was talking about? since he is unaware of any antiblowout device that is electrically operated, they are set up with a compressed air/oil cylinder so that no matter what happens to the rig these things are self contained, you open a valve manually and the compreeed air/oil goes to two hydraulic cylinders that shut the ram on the pipe, either crushing the pipe or shearing the pipe and pinching the end. low tech, meant to be that way all it needs is a hand on a lever. these must be routinely checked for pressure and function on the rigs.

roughneck

-- roughneck (mexdoc@blackgold.com), November 01, 1999.

>>>>>>>>> My Response

Either you are a polly troll, a liar or your "friend" is a nitwit who knows nothing about the oil biz. Maybe he pumps gas at Goober's filling station? How come you didn't bother to post when I posted the following link a couple of weeks ago??? Why didn't you question this back then?

Baker Hughes Oil --- A company that supplies equipment to Oil Industry.Severe problems in getting its products compliant to Oil Companies. From their SEC 10-Q Y2K disclosure report.

http://greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001apB

>>>>>>>>>> OVERALL RESPONSE TO THE NITWIT POLLY POSTS ABOVE ....

[they gotta be pollies, no one else would be so stupid]

First of all,

With all of the postings that myself and others have done here since June that have posted solid and hard data, I am amazed at how quickly folks forget this stuff. I know there's new people, but there's a lot of material out here now and not just mine.

Okay... in addition to the several URLs noted in a post a few notches above on this page, I want to AGAIN, post the Hughes Baker Inc. website information.

Hughes Baker Inc is a conglomerate with nearly a dozen subsidiaries in various aspects of the Oil service industry. Among those are firms which provide PARTS & EQUIPMENT for OIL WELLS.

Their SEC 10-Q Y2K disclosure statement reveals their entire gamut of products listed with their status regarding Y2K compliance or non- compliance. I'll provide the main link to the website plus directions on how to get to the page with pertinent data pertaining to DD's claims regarding oil wells.

NOTE: Some of the systems/parts listed below will be related to the VERY ISSUE DD made. Like the plug aspect. These are systems that are indeed loaded with embedded factors of the Major systems kind just as DD described. Now, here's the data and a long list of those systems and parts that DD referred to... and Baker Hughes/ Baker Oil Tools ... admits these below are STILL NON-COMPLIANT, now Pollies answer back to this!!!! There's nothing more to say. You have no legs to stand on here.

Click on the "Product Readiness Disclosures" for full listings of products that are non-compliant as well as compliant. Use the link below to get to that section. http://www.bakerhughes.com/y2k/mby2k.htm

See the subsidiary company "Baker Oil Tools" Note that on their disclosure list of compliant and non-compliant products some of the key products NOT COMPLIANT at this time and the site is updated all the time, last update was the END OF OCTOBER, 1999.

Note the following "key" NON-Compliant items that are on units still out there.

"flow control" --- Flow Control exception - Electronic Systems:Slick Set Firing Head

"compliance status" --- Compliance to be Determined ; disclosed under Remotely Actuated Products (Part 1) ----------- "Remotely Actuated Products--Part 1" --- EDGEb Packers and Surface System Remote Controlled Plug Dropping Head Slick Line Setting Tool Timer

"compliance status" --- Compliance to be Determined ; Evaluation in Progress (pending vendor disclosures and BOT internal testing) ----------- "Remotely Actuated Products Part 2" ---- EASb Tubing Hangers EDGEb Surface Systems

"compliance status" -- Obsolete ; Compliance not Evaluated ----------- Completion packer products --exception EDGE

"compliance status"--- Compliance to be Determined ; disclosed under Remotely Actuated Products (Part 1) -----------

"Advanced Data Monitoring and Instrumentation (Part 1)" --- Surface Data Acquisition Systems; PC Interface Cards and Software; Portable Surface Interface Units; Pressure and Temperature Sensors

"Compliance status" --- Compliance to be Determined ; Evaluation in Progress (pending vendor disclosures and BOT internal testing) ---------- "Advanced Data Monitoring and Instrumentation (Part 2)" --- Surface Data Acquisition Systems PC Interface Cards and Software; Portable Surface Interface Units; Pressure and Temperature Sensors

"Compliance Status" -- Obsolete ; Compliance not Evaluated ----------

"Safety Systems" --- Sub-surface exceptions -Time Cycle Control: Electrical

"compliance status" --- Compliance to be Determined ; Evaluation in Progress (pending vendor disclosures) -----------

"Safety Systems" --- Measurement and Control: Flow Meters Information Processor (Digital Signal) Fluid Property Sensors Telecommunication Remote Power Supplies

"Compliance Status" --- Compliance to be Determined ; Evaluation in Progress (pending vendor disclosures) -------------

"Safety Systems" --- Surface exceptions - Panels Hydraulic: Single Well Hydraulic Panels Multi-Wells Hydraulic Panels

"compliance status: --- Compliance to be Determined ; Evaluation in Progress (pending vendor disclosures)

------------

"Safety Systems" --- Panels Pneumatic: Single Well Pneumatic Panels Multi-Wells Pneumatic Panels Pump C Pneumatic Panels Platform C Pneumatic Panels

"compliance status" --- Compliance to be Determined ; Evaluation in Progress (pending vendor disclosures)

-----------

"safety systems" --- Panels Hydraulic/Pneumatic: Single Well Hydraulic/Pneumatic Panels Multi-Wells Hydraulic/Pneumatic Panels

"compliance status" --- Compliance to be Determined ; Evaluation in Progress (pending vendor disclosures)

-------------

"Chemical Injection Systems" ---

Chemical Injection Systems exception - BOT Pump Rate Program (design software)

"compliance status" --- Compliance to be Determined ; Evaluation in Progress (pending internal BOT testing)

------------

"Gas Lift" --- "Gas Lift LIFT 2 design software"

"Compliance status" -- Compliance to be Determined ; Evaluation in Progress (pending internal BOT testing)

-----------

"Line Hangars" --- Liner Hangers exception - Liner Hanger Electronic System: Electronic Plug Dropping Head

"compliance status" -- Compliance to be Determined ; disclosed under Remotely Actuated Products (Part 1)

-----------

"Remedial and Stimulation Products" ---

Remedial and Stimulation exception - Drillable Bridge Plugs: Wireline Set Bridge Plugs: Casing Drillable Bridge Plugs

"compliance status" --- Compliance to be Determined ; Evaluation in Progress (pending vendor disclosures)

------------

"inflatables" ---

Drill Stem Testing exceptions - Open Hole Conventional Open Hold Inflatable

"compliance status" --- Compliance to be Determined ; Evaluation in Progress (pending vendor disclosures)

------------

"fishing" --- Special Use Fishing Tools: Jars Blow Out Preventer and Parts Valves and Chokes Blow Out Preventer and Valve

"compliance status" --- Compliance to be Determined ; Evaluation in Progress (pending vendor disclosures)

------------

"fishing" --- Running and Handling Equipment: Wireline Stripping Equipment Elevators

"compliance status" --- Compliance to be Determined ; Evaluation in Progress (pending vendor disclosures)

------------

"fishing" --- Miscellaneous Equipment: Mud Pumps Power Swivels Drilling Mud Motors Reverse Units

"compliance status" --- Compliance to be Determined ; Evaluation in Progress (pending vendor disclosures)

----------

"Sand Control (Part 1)" ---

Tubing Conveyed Perforating exception (design software) - Sand Control Drill Stem Testing: Cased Hole Pressure Operated DST

Compliance to be Determined ; Evaluation in Progress (pending internal BOT testing)

-----------------

"Sand Control (Part 3)" --- Pumping Service: Data Acquisition

"compliance status" --- Non-Compliant ; Remediation in Progress

---------

"Sand Control (Part 4)" --- Pumping Service: Mixing Equipment

Compliance to be Determined ; Evaluation in Progress (pending vendor disclosures)

---------

"Sand Control (Part 5)" --- Pumping Service: Offshore

"Compliance Status" --- Not Compliant ; Remediation in Progress (pending vendor disclosure from the Republic Tide boat owner.

--------

End of Baker Hughes Inc. / Baker Oil Tools

The above is just a few of the items from just one of the Baker Hughes subsidiaries.

To all ---

What DD1Light indicated in the report is completely correct. I don't recall anything in her comments that I found to be at odds. I will start a separate thread to respond to her specific statements to underscore what she said. I've got many other sources out there in the oil patch who are as equally if not more pessimistic than she is. At least she thinks some of them will survive. I've talked with guys who say that none of the big rigs will make it.

The Oil Industry IS in serious trouble... from the oil fields to the pipelines to the refineries and for multiples of reasons from multiple potential sources within and without the industry. Oil needed to start on this 10 years ago and it would've been okay. Mostly because a lot of the embeddeds since then wouldn't be the trouble now, and the earlier ones could have been replaced over a 10 year period. MOST oil companies didn't even bother to start serious field assessments til about a year ago...and then it was too late.

-- R.C. (racambab@mailcity.com), November 02, 1999.

RC

I think you are just a little bit overboard with the "Troll" thing. Big differance between figuring out truth and fiction and being a troll.

You may be getting a tad emotional.

-- Brian (imager@home.com), November 02, 1999.

Brian,

Trolls have been overrunning the forum here the past few days. It seems that the folks I singled out give every indication of ulterior motives here in those 3 posts. IMO.

The stakes are high, lives could be at risk here from folks reading this and the Trollish comments and then blowing it all off. While we don't know for sure what's going to happen, it's time for the pollies to get out of the way.

-- R.C. (racambab@mailcity.com), November 02, 1999.

Thanks for the info R.C.
Isn't anybody else worried about the fact that it only took a 7% drop in the 70's to produce the long gas lines, even/odd rationing etc.
It seems we're about to loose more than that.

-- Dan G (earth_changes@hotmail.com), November 02, 1999.

I work in the upstream business, but I'm not a drilling engineer. In my 20 years of employment with an oil company I have NEVER heard of an embedded system located in the wellbore. At the surface, sure. Even the surface of the seafloor. But inside the well itself? Not likely. I'll check and post back later. But the inside of a wellbore is HOT, corrosive, and a nasty place. Any embedded would be destroyed by the environment, not to mention a rework rig that would enter the wellbore.

Plus, I can't imagine what it would be needed for. You can get the pressure readings at the surface. There is nothing mechanically happening down the hole.

Will we have problems? Absolutely! Will they be happening down the well? I don't see how. I will update later.

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), November 02, 1999.

I know the TRUTH behind Gary North's interest in the oil industry. This man sees the oil industry as an avenue of higher office---to become President Of The United States. He has seen the former Presidents L.B.J. and Bush, and there ties to the oil industry. Don't be fooled, there is an agenda here to place Gary North in the White House in 2000.

http://www.myfreeoffice.com/garydude/ "Official" north for president site

http://www.garynorth.com personal/y2k site of Gary North

http://www.freebooks.com political type books detailing Mr. Norths plans once he assumes office.

-- The Truth (none@nospampleasethanks.com), November 02, 1999.

R.C.,

As always,your post are a most welcome contribution on the discussion of oil.Thank you for all the hard work involved in providing us with that information.

There was a one hour y2k special on CBN (the 7000 club) in the fall of 1998, Peter De Jager was one of the guest.They were discussing the oil plate forms out in the ocean with embeds so far down in the water that would be difficult and very costly to get to,let alone replace.

-- Maggie (aaa@aaa.com), November 02, 1999.

Thanks R.C.!

You will now bw attacked by trolls.

Consider it a badge of honor.

The legitimate people here greatly appreciate your efforts. We greatly outnumber the trolls. But what the trolls lack in numbers they make up for in volume.

-- The Original Me (me@me.me), November 02, 1999.

The Truth? You sound like the ultimate troll. Maybe even some democratic presidential candidate. Hey, people may not agree with all Gary does and says, but hopefully you have done as much good for the public as Gary has if you are casting such big stones?

-- tt (cuddluppy@yahoo.com), November 02, 1999.

Gary North posted today about his questions to the lady pro about oil.This thread was talked about and a hot link was provided for it!Check it out by going to his site.

-- Maggie (aaa@aaa.com), November 02, 1999.

The original thread where this discussion started (a MUST-READ):

Oil Chat

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), November 02, 1999.

R.C.

I was reading your post and finding it informative and interesting untill I saw myself listed as a "Polly Troll". Where the hell is your brain? I never claimed to know anything. I never disputed anything. I never claimed to have looked anything up which supports or disproves anything. I merely stated that I am very concerned about this subject. And that I saw some discrepancies in the statements. Now noone is 100% knowledgeable and accurate all the time, but I would really like to see some kind of verification of who this "DD" is. For all I know, "She" is a 16 yr old punk with nothing better to do than scare the hell out of us. I'm not saying she is, just that I dont know that she's not. Sad but true, there are people like that out there. If we don't keep our heads and verify our sources and facts, we come of looking like the crazies the media like to paint us as.

Come look at my pantry, ammo cans, and OD duffle bags full of goodies before you call me a "Polly"

Idiot

-- "Polly" my ass (CWHale67@aol.com), November 02, 1999.

I'm new to this chat session. Just visited the Baker-Hughes website. This is as black and white as it gets. Does anyone know who (if any) this company's competitors are? How to find a list of their customers?

TA

-- Terry (Ta@pacific-ocean.com), November 02, 1999.

"..polly my ass..."

-- snicker (lisa@work.now), November 02, 1999.

Well, a friend forwarded me the posts on this site, haven't been here before. Just thought I would post a short note.

1. I am not a know-all-see-all expert, just a lady who has been in the business for a good while and know of some aspects of that business that I have not been able to rectify as being 'fixable'. I have been priviledged to work in a manner in my life that has exposed me to more aspects of the industry than many, but not all by any means. This industry is extremely complex and varied, I would seriously wonder if anyone has an true, intimate knowledge of this industry across the board.

2. What I am saying is not new, I have been answering various questions, including ones on what my take of the oil/gas industry is, online since the middle of summer of '98. I have neither sought to hide anything I know, nor to promulgate it either. Generally I have just answered questions the best I can, and asked questions of others that I felt a need of knowing.

3. No I would not probably be too hard to find as I have always had the same email address and always use the same 'nickname' in chats. It is intriguing to me and my family that I just did the same thing I have been doing for well over a year, and now because "one of the big dawgs" to quote a friend of mine, asked me some questions, I am in the center of what seems to be an explosive thing to many. I did not hesitate to answer questions from GN, (though I have to admit I have only visited his site a couple of times) as I have always answered any questions from others through the times.

3. I can readily see how some of the answers I gave could be confusing. There is such wide diversity in types of wells and such that few overall statements about them are really possible. Like RAMs, not all wells have them and the ones used in the drilling process are not like the ones used off-shore for spill prevention etc. Please remember that I was answering very general questions that were asked about the effects of areas of the business regarding y2k that I saw as trouble spots etc. I tended to choose examples that I thought could be understood more easily. Needless to say I was NOT doing an interview etc., just replying to an email as I would to any. I am neither 'coming out' nor am I hiding. Heck I am not really doing anything different.

4. I was invited to the soybean.com chat about a month before I was able to come, by one of the regulars who emailed me and asked me to attend. I did not know until I went to the site that they archived chats, I did stop and ask the opinion of my family and we agreed that there was a possibility that it could all get out-of-hand etc., but that to not do so would be 'hiding' which is a thing we do not agree with. I enjoyed the session, as I do most chats.

All in all I have to say that it is a bit scarey to be so noticed, I am not even sure if this information would or could make much real impact on how many people prepare etc. There has been good, solid info available in many fields that have been enough, for most who will read this, to already see a need for prudent preparations. It really is just one more piece of the puzzle. No one hopes that we are wrong about all this more than we do. It would be nice to be able to go to sleep without concern etc. Unfortunately we do not find it to be possible to have our heads that far into the sand. Believe me I would much rather be crazy than right this time round! LOL

DD ( yes i am a real person! LOL)

-- DD (1stlight@worldnet.att.net), November 02, 1999.

Hi DD! It was great chatting with you. Hope to see you tonight; we'll be late, too busy. Welcome to TimeBomb 2000 (TB2K). Lots of terrific threads archived in this Forum. Enjoy!

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), November 02, 1999.

DD,

Welcome to the forum, and don't forget your asbestos underwear.

-- (RUOK@yesiam.com), November 02, 1999.

"The conveniences and comforts of humanity in general will be linked up by one mechanism, which will produce comforts and conveniences beyond human imagination. But the smallest mistake will bring the whole mechanism to a certain collapse. In this way the end of the world will be brought about."

Pir-o-Murshid Inayat Khan (Complete Works, 1922 I, p. 158-9)

Thanks, Ben

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), November 02, 1999.

oops, solly, wrong thread

-- close that window (allaha@earthlink.net), November 02, 1999.

I worked 10 years in the Alberta oil industry and I would like to know where these 20,000' wells are. 10,000 is considered deep around here. The preventers as mentioned by someone else are above ground and are most often opened and closed by compressed nitrogen. They also have manual averides. Tink about it have you ever thought about 20'000 of wire head ing down the hole and how and why woould you install the things down there. I think your consultant loses a lot of credability here.

-- Joe Mckay (mckay@mountainguide.com), November 02, 1999.

Joe,

You've got a good question about the deep well. I would point out that I don't believe DD1st Light said that; it was someone else writing to her.

Also,

DD1stLight,

You say you are "of a small band called the Kee-Apa." I can find zero information on this group. Can you please provide more info? Please don't be offended. It's just that I take these Y2K disaster scenarios really seriously and feel that we can't afford even a little looseness with the truth.

-- Rick (rick7@postmark.net), November 02, 1999.

I have had personal experience with the type of oil operations that DD describes, mainly in the production fields. I put myself through school working as a Maintainence tech on Alaska's North Slope oilfield, namely Prudhoe Bay. The various repair tasks took our crews into every aspect of the system. I will describe:

1. Pads

Well pads in PB are small to minimize the footprint and damage to the tundra. One well pad may have 20-25 individual wells. Each well is connected to a pad gathering center, an sometimes unmanned structure that contains computer controls and equipment to tie all well flows into one channel to be sent to one of three main gathering centers. Each well is computer controlled, but may not be monitored. I have seen leaking wellheads that had to be called in, lest they go unnoticed. From the pad, Oil flows through pipelines to GC-1, 2, or 3. There are control points along those pipelines, some manual, some computer controlled.

2. Gathering Centers

When oil reaches one of the GC's, it undergoes a cleaning process that removes natural hydrocarbon gas, frac sand, and other detritus. Each GC is computer controlled from a central room. Each GC has three separate "Trains" that can be started or shut down as volume dictates. However, staffing is never very high, due to the nature of the operation. With computer control, it does not need to be. Further, while many systems do have manual controls, i.e. valves, switches, I would put forth the idea that it is impossible to run such a system commercially, which in PB's case means 24/7. As far as remediation goes, PB's facilities were built in the 70's and early 80's. They were assembled in the lower 48, and barged up in sections. To remediate those systems requires shutdown of each "train" for three or more months. Would it be possible to shut down the main control system? I do not have that information. Anyway, from the GC, oil and gas flow to two points. I'll do gas first.

3. LG-1

LG-1 is the natural gas pressurization unit. It also conducts burn- off's of excess NG. Pressurized gas is pumped back into oil bearing strata to pressurize the system. It keeps oil flowing freely from the ground. Again, this is a completely computer controlled system.

4. Pump Station #1

The crude oil finally reaches Aleyeska One, the first pump station on the Aleyeska Pipeline. The oil is pressurized and pumped down the pipeline, in order to maintain its speed and temperature (150-200 degrees, I cannot remember). Of course, all computer controlled and monitored down its 800+ mile journey to the holing taks of Valdez.

I would like to point out that this pipeline, which is solely responsible for 20%+ of american oil requires two things to stay in physical existence. First, That oil must move. Second, that oil must be hot. If anything interferes with a. Volume or b. Temperature, you get c. A useless pipeline that has to be completely replaced. That is correct. COMPLETELY REPLACED. Oil, when not moving, and not hot, will solidify in Alaska's -70 degree winters. Much of this pipeline is above ground.

Now, consider DD's observation about percentages of errors in the production field. The implications for keeping this pipeline up and running at full speed can be imagined.

Also note: It takes a great deal of time to drill a well. It takes a great deal of support to supply those rigs. There are a finite number of rigs. Some wells may not be able to produce again due to wirelining and fracing (short for fracturing) and damage to the strata.

Let's not forget the environmental damage. PB's wells are pressurized with NG. The oil goes SOMEWHERE. If production is stopped, the oil either is stays in the well and freezes as it loses heat, or it continues out of the well. If it gets out on the tundra, that's a huge legal liability.

DD has good information. The complexity of these systems grows exponentially as you add more processes.

Chew on that.

-- Chad Greif (Bluntobj@iro.com), November 02, 1999.

Oops. Transposes the "o" and "r" in my email. this is correct.

Thanks!

-- Chad Greif (Bluntobj@ior.com), November 02, 1999.

DD,

Thank you for posting and clarifying. What you've stated is pretty much the same as all of my various sources who are out in the field (some involved in "pretend" remediation efforts). At the first of the year, one source told me that there were still some independent "good ol' boys who still didn't know what Y2K was... Some of my refinery folks back in late August and early September were beginning to believe their higher ups who were doing the PR spin routine. Namely, that other top remediation consultants had come in and found that a lot of systems didn't need remediation/replacement after all and every thing was now hunky-dory but hold off on the party til after Jan 1 to avoid the Murphy's law jinx. Well some of my contacts were apparently buying these stories and were downgrading their concerns. Recent revelations like those from Baker Hughes Inc website plus other systems experts are indicating that you can't do bench type testing and call it a quits saying you're done. So, I've been backpeddling a notch upwards towards a 6-7 from a 4-5. You're comments confirm everything else. Lately more news about Foreign sources has been coming forward indicating perhaps things might indeed be an 8, but I'm not ready to go there just yet. I would be an 7 to an 8 IF I knew supplies were only going to be 1/4 to a 1/3rd of the 1973-74 Arab oil embargo.

DD, also, you indicated that the Embargo figures were 7%... the DOE actual historical figures show about 2.2% as I look at their numbers. In my memory, I'd thought the tally was more like 12% supply loss, but that must have been wrong. Anyway, thanks for your post. Perhaps it will do some good for a few folks, most pollies won't pay any attention.

-- R.C. (racambab@mailcity.com), November 02, 1999.

Chad,

Thank you for your post, it was great to hear from more workers in the field. Fella's like myself have been trying to sound the alarm for months now, on behalf of those out there who've seen things not matching up to the PR spin of their companies. Most have no clue about their competitors, but they know that their firm at their location is in trouble. They're worried. Take a mosaic of folks like this from a variety of competitor oil firms, (mostly the majors) and you've got a definite pattern shaping up showing real and very serious problems looming ahead. While we don't know for sure just how many will fail, we know that there will be failures that will shutdown oil wells and pipelines and some refinery units or whole plants. Whether it affects a handful or a few percent or 80% we don't know, BUT, BUT the math odds strongly favor for at least a middle range estimate...and definitely far worse than in 1973-74 Arab embargo disruptions.

Again thanks for your input... Have you heard anything about the Alaska Pipeline remediation??? I've heard that this was one project that they've gone to extreme lengths to get it "ready" or "compliant" and that the guys on this REALLY ARE VERY CONFIDENT that the Alaska Pipeline will be A.OK. What's your take on it??? (If you have one?)

-- R.C. (racambab@mailcity.com), November 02, 1999.

i know guys its hard to take from a woman...they always kill the messenger...guess next time she"ll just ignore any pertinent questions and let us find out the hard way...dd thanks for the enlightenment...

-- cindy mcbeth (cin1239056@aol.com), November 02, 1999.

RC- Just because I question statements I am labelled a "troll"? Geeezzee. Take a prozac and relax dude. I won't get into a pissing contest with you but let me say that it is always wise to question. If what DD says IS true and does come to pass......INFOMAGIC. No recession or poor corp profits. Badtimes for the US of A. I'm not a doomer, polly or troll. i simply want to survive. If it goes as bad as all of your time spent research predicts, so what? It's too late. I've got my preps, do you?

-- dozerdoctor (dozerdoc@yahoo.com), November 02, 1999.

I have read every link and every response on this page. It doesn't take a genious (thats a joke) to figure out that ALL HELL IS GOING TO BRAKE LOOSE. I have seen it coming for 2 years. and I don't feel the need to convince any of you invisible foes. However, another voice might help change your feelings.

I have learned to always expect the worst if you don't want to be let down. And at the risk of sounding like an X-Gen Hippy, a certain side of me really wants it all to fail.

Think of all the thousands of life times that have passed. And here we are... Smack dab in the middle of my life time/generation. I feel thankful to be able to witness such an event as the one in question (in short: is this the end?). And if we do survive this, at least I have a good story to tell my grand kids (or any kids for that matter).

I know that I don't want to be caught with my pants down. So, prepared I am/will be (still preparing actually). But as for my attitude to the whole thing.....

I am thankful to be alive right now. and If I ever eat another meal, like tomorrow morning, I'll be thankful then too. And when the food runs out, I'll still be thankful!

So if/when the sky starts falling, I'll be there with a smile. Fnord!

-Augie

-- August (august@osirisstudios.com), November 03, 1999.

I was sent this thread to read...and found some of the subsequent responses interesting. I personally, haven't a CLUE about today's methods of drilling, etc. But back in 1978-79, when I was married, my husband worked for an oil exploration company out of Colorado. We spent a GREAT deal of time in the Texas fields. [too much!..lol] He was working with something 'new' at that time called a 'bore-hole gravity meter'. This thing was *something*!

It had to be temperature maintained in it's own case at all times.. and remain level at all times...when not actually in use. We had to buy it it's own seat on planes...first class, mind you... and spent COUNTLESS hours trying to convince just about every airport on the planet that it wasn't a bomb. LOL It was about 1 foot sqaure and 4 feet tall. The point? It was a very delicate and sophisticated piece of electronic equipment that was dropped down exisiting wells...and sent to hunt down more oil. That's as simple an explanation as I know how to make. And it was very successful. The oil money flowed in those days...and I assure you.. no expense was ever even *questioned*. Soooo.. what makes anyone think that 20+ years later... that there isn't far MORE sophisticated equipment down those wells to get oil OUT?? Like I said...don't know much about it by today's standards...but it just seems logical that things are not all that 'simplistic' today. Just my $ .02 :)

-- stef (posstef@hotmail.com), November 03, 1999.

Thanks, DD. All I can say is that we're all fubared... Gonna get me a fishin' pole.

-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), November 04, 1999.

FYI, some info dug up on c.s.y2k regarding the Alyeska Pipleine.

http://www.alye ska-pipe.com/factbook/index.html

Contains quite a bit of statistics and facts regarding the pipeline and operations. In particular, regarding some of the information presented on this thread:

http://www.al yeska-pipe.com/factbook/fact_4c.html

Temperature - (1996)

• At Pump Station 1 - 116 0 F at injection into pipeline
• At Pump Station 6 - 90 0 F approx.
• At Terminal - 82 0 F approx.

http://www.al yeska-pipe.com/factbook/fact_3b.html

Hot position - pipe at maximum oil temperature (145= F)

http://www.al yeska-pipe.com/factbook/fact_4a.html

Time oil will remain pumpable if line is shut down in winter  minimum of 21 days.

-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-deja.com), November 04, 1999.

Oil Chat related. Has anybody gotten the new Genesis CD? Peter Gabriel and Steve Hackett got back together with Genesis after 19 years (a historical moment)to do one song, a remix of the 1974 release "Carpet Crawlers" from "The Lamb Lies Down on Broadway" alublm.. It is called "Carpet Crawlers 1999". As I was listening, I thought .. "where's Banks?" (Tony Banks that is). When I got to the end, i thought "Oh, there is Banks" .. we must be careful what we say about Banks.

And then there is "Supper's Ready" from the "Foxtrot" CD .. (sorry Phil, I think Peter's singing in this particular song is the savior)- lyrics in cover booklet.

-- Marla (supready@aol.com), November 04, 1999.

Just got it, Marla. I'm a BIG Genesis fan...

-- Nabi (nabi7@yahoo.com), November 04, 1999.

"Offshore: This is an area of such high probability of failures and percentage level of "unreachable" chips and systems that we have not been able to calculate any acceptable curve from available data. The massive prevalence of systems used in offshore technology is staggering: many thousands/well with say 12+ wells per platform. The type of platform makes a difference in how many systems are reachable. Some have "legs" that can be gone down inside and systems reached, some do not. The majority of the systems are above water or accessable, but the 30% to 40% that are not are a huge problem."

Chips that are "unreachable"? 30 to 40% not accessble? Very funny. The oil industry debunked this stuff over a year ago. Use your common sense people - equipment fails, and no would would embed equipment with chips in "unreachable" locations (unless the equipment was expendable).

"I believe the best way I can answer this is to tell you a reality of tye types of "systems," prevalent in the industry, that I do not find talked about hardly at all, but is the part of the problem that is simply unsolveable in any short time frame. It is the DAB's (Data Access Boards). As you know, systems do not operate by themselves. Most think of a system as being composed of "chips," as we know the simplest of systems is somewhat composed so with a "controller" that co-ordinates the components to perform the assigned task. Then we have the next level up, wherein that "controller" takes several of such "simple" systems and co-ordinates them. This "tree" continues to the point where you may have a thousand plus "systems" that actually comprise what is classified in an analysis report as "one system." As long as you can find the effected component chips, etc. and have 1- for-1 (exactly equal in all ways, except date) replacements, you can test through the controller and many times it is fine, and so on up through the "tree." But without 1-for-1 replacements, the "controller" (i.e. DAB's) have to be re-blueprinted, in other words rewritten and programmed to have the same, exact required function performed, but doing it a differing way, through differing components that must all work together. We have FEW 1-for-1 replacements, sorry. It is not unusual for it to take several months to re-blueprint a DAB. The "tree" contains many of them, and remember, we are talking about "one system." The oil / gas industry may well be the most intensive user of such multilevel systems."

I am in awe. This is the most creative paragraph I have read since the Beach Bug report. Unfortunately, it's just as bogus. The above paragraph is so technically inept, I can hardly stand it, lol...

DD, you without a doubt have some knowedge of oil, but are using old specualtions about embedded systems, and adding some pretty funny embedded "chip" creations of your own.

A lot of you have done some homework, and have read through this stuff with some healthy skepticism. And fortunately, those in the industry have dismissed some of the erroneous statements - dozerdoctor,roughneck, Dog Gone, Joe Mckay, thanks for your knowledgable input. A number of others were skeptical as well, good for you.

RC, not everyone is a troll, some of these people are searching for the truth. Others will embrace DD's message, since her message is that Y2K could be bad, and to some it matters little whether its true. No offense RC, but your knowledge of embedded systems is less than impressive to me, your posts above mix facts and fantasy.

Good one DD. I rank this one up there with the Q7 hoax. I enjoyed it!

Regards,

-- FactFinder (FactFinder@bzn.com), November 04, 1999.

Thank you Nabi. Are you a Genesis newcomer.. or long time? (If you are a longtimer, you will note a couple of discrepancies, I like to do that, so people can correct me). Do you have any suggestions in how to facilitate others through the process?

P.S. I told my mother and father about this oil situation. My mother told my father to get more gas. He said he will.

-- Marla (supready@aol.com), November 05, 1999.

Totally new visitor with questions: .... What is a troll and

HOW could there be a $ angle connected to their posts???

They were simply questioning if DD could be a bogus post, which is a wise thing to do, in my opinion.

-- Virginia (keepsakebox@angelfire.com), November 05, 1999.

I think you have a good point, Virginia.

Oil Chat/Supper's Ready related question (Nabi or anyone else)

If I am quite sure of the last sentence in the "Apocalypse in 9/8 (co- starring the delicious talents of Gabble Ratchet" movement, and I am even more certain (after listening about 10,000 times) of the last sentence in the "As Sure As Eggs Is Eggs (Aching men's feet) movement, do you think that Polly troll alert guy will give me a hard time?

Question for Polly troll alert guy (RC) - What's a Gabble Ratchet?

This IS NOT a bogus post.

-- Marla (supready@aol.com), November 06, 1999.

This post is directed to Dr North.

I read what you had to say about Banks (which wasn't very nice, we have to work on that one), and I read your letter to Alan Greenspan. Since you seem to know so much about the Federal Reserve, what do the words on the front of the dollar bill mean, specifically "This Note is Legal Tender for all Debts, Public and Private"? I looked the words up in several dictionaries, and I would still like your opinion on that one. It all seems pretty legal to me. In October 1998, I received a tip on my beeper, it said "When yesterday, we worked toward prosperity, today, we let prosperity foot the bill" .. it kind of reminded me of the words on the front of the dollar bill. What do you think?

In parallel, I worked on a database design for a computer system called the National Insurance System and color coded the subject areas. I initially had the billing subject area color coded in red. It made the picture prettier, but there were problems, so I changed the color to black. There hasn't seemed to be any problems since, but we'll see.

The second, and most important question refering to your previous experience in religious material and Y2K.

Reference: Book of Revelation Chapter 20 verse 8

Reference: Genesis Foxtrot CD, movement 6 "Apocolyse in 9/8 (co starring the delicious talents of Gabbel Ratchet)" verse 1.

What's a Magog? Inquiring minds want to know.

-- Marla (supready@aol.com), November 07, 1999.

What are we going to do for entertainment when the Y2k bug goes away?.... and what are we going to do with all these extra supplies?

-- lj (syntope@pacbell.net), November 07, 1999.

Those sound like some very intelligent oil-chat related questions. You sound like a very kind and gracious person. Since we don't want our friends all over the world to go without Comfortable Shelter, Water, and Food, would you please ask the next person in charge to take care of this situaton? We also want them all to be safe, and in order to do so, perhaps we need to safely dispose of all this hazadrous material we have laying around. We hate to bother you with another favor, but could you please kindly ask the next person in charge to take care of this?

As for entertainment, we have a few thoughts on that as well (smile).

-- Marla Christensen (supready@aol.com), November 08, 1999.

I would hate to be accused of hoarding any important information. Our son gave me an update yesterday and it was this. He heard somewhere that if you where your always wear your seatbelt, you can expect an extra life expectency rate of 1 year. He then told me that if you feel good about yourself, you can expect at least another three to four years. That sounds about right to me ... anyone else have any thoughts on that one? He agrees with our gun policies. We agree on most things.

For any inquiring minds that are interested, my son's name is legally Aaron Quick, but he signs it Aaron Christensen sometimes. He's 14 years old and is very smart in school. We both enjoy our cat, Dickens. He likes to eat bagel bites. Oh, an entertainment update, I also like to listen to Sarah Maclauclins voice, she has a really big hit out there called "Building a Mystery"

-- Marla Christensen (supready@aol.com), November 09, 1999.

This question is for R.C or any one else who would know. I just got a hold of A document that says the best we can expect in southern california is 12 hours on 12 hours off on power. In this situation what would happen to refinery output? We have a refinerys in torrance ca.Thanks

-- john miller (john_miller@baxter.com), November 12, 1999.

Correction the the above post 12 on 12 off in outlying areas so maybe things will stay up in the city maybe not.

-- john miller (john_miller@baxter.com), November 12, 1999.

OOOPPPS ... forgot to state the position on guns and gold ... two words ... scrap metal (We know where home is).

-- US (supready@aol.com), November 15, 1999.

Aloha! Where do I begin? Thanks DD! It seems to me that we should all be trying to help each other? Do you not see that DD is Indian yet some seem to question this? Do you not see that she knows what she is talking about? Do you not see her motivation? Love is her motive!

I am sad to read what is said about her and the message she brings. What does she have to gain by telling the truth? Fame on the internet? WOW big deal! She has explained herself above. Do you still not see?

I know that most Indians don't bullshit. And I think most of you feel this! That is the power of her. She is a woman and an Indian woman at that and she still has that which is lost to most people.

I have been warning people for over a year, I still remember Hamasaki's Day 500.

I also have been put down and picked apart for my warnings! Why warn then? Simple>>>>>LOVE<<<<< thats all!

Now you folks can debate until forever, some seem to thrive on it. I do not! However I do LOVE you all even though I have and never will meet any of you.

Most of you cannot grasp this FACT because it is so uncommon in this world today. Love for a stranger??? No way!!! Wrong:) Do you not understand the Indian Way? It is the path of LIGHT not darkness. DD 1st Light is that example of Light. She has only Love for us who she has never met and will never meet here on this planet.

She only does what she has to do! Tell what she KNOWS,simple yeah? She doesn't claim to know what is going to happen, but she knows the Oil Industry! We all owe her and her family respect and thanks!

I want to go to a more important point now. What are we all going to do now. Are we going to go buy guns and ammo? Or are we going to spend that money on EXTRA FOOD for our neighbors? Are we going to withdraw within? Or help our brothers and sisters. For you Christians. What would Jesus Do? Do you not know that Jesus said to do unto your brothers and sisters as *HE* would do? Now is the time, the time to rise to the test and show that we are sons of God!

We can do it if we "Do what Love would do" Always!

aloha nui aikane, runs with wind``````----------------------->

a good start is here http://www.urantia.org/papers/paper5.html

-- runs with wind``````-----------------> (lokelo@hotmail.com), November 17, 1999.

Hmmm ... on the subject of American Indians .. reference Peter Gabriel's "Security" CD the song called "San Jacinto". I wouldn't want to reference the first song on that CD because that would be like bombing someone. We do not want to bomb people. Some say you have to, but I don't like to do that. If it happens, I would suggest you to quickly refer to a song by "Yes" (one of my many favorites by them)called "Time and a Word". By the way, the Security CD I own is esentially my Security System.... but I'm making a tape of my own (smile) ... or I could just sing. Love.

-- Marla Christensen (supready@aol.com), November 17, 1999.

This post will field the previous comment on "What would Jesus do?". However, I will word it, "What would the Lamb do?". Answer: Start with first oil chat related question with Email address of "Supready@aol.com" (first reference is to "The Carpet Crawlers 1999, on the Genesis "Turn it on again" CD) - then work down. I am certain that is what the Lamb would do.

A question for Peter Gabriel - I really do love the spirit and love you show in all of your music and lyrics, especially in "Supper's Ready" (which, again, I must have listened to 10,000 times), however, reference movement 1 "Lover's Leap" line 11, then reference the last five lines of movement 7 (last movement)"As sure as eggs is eggs (Aching men's feet)", last five lines.

Question - Why the quick switch in gender? One inquiring heart would love to know.

(I know it might make sense if coupled with "In the Blood of Eden" off of your "US" CD - but that really confuses things).

-- Marla Christensen (Supready@aol.com), November 21, 1999.

Recap:

If Dr. North does not mind (or even if he does), world debt is paid off (refer to post to Dr. North).

If unorganized religion does not mind (or even if they do), God may be Godess, and Christ may be a woman.

If musicians do not mind (or even if they do), the work they contributed, is testimony to a New Jerusalem.

What's missing - an objective and an implementation plan. Whoever reads this, and is a believer with a mustard seed of faith, please e- mail me. I only need ONE employee (your load will be light with me). If there are more, I will work accordingly. Two candidates I have seen on this forum are Nabi and lb - however, it could be anyone willing to see the light.

If no one e-mails me, i guess i'll just sing and dance - alone in heaven.

If you wish to e-mail me, please state your work background (however grand or humble) and follow with the question "How may I help you?".

I guess it is only fair that I state some of my most recent background information.

To summarize my professional background, I was a computer programmer for eight years, six of those years in mainframe computers. I first spotted the Y2K problem in 1987, when I became a mainframe programmer. The last seven years I have been a corporate database designer (data analyst/architect, modeling). My industry background includes manufacturing, banking, securities, regulatory, law, transportation, telecommunications, health care, environmental, and regulatory in both private and public sectors (some DOD also). I also have extensive project planning experience. My B.S. degree is in Business Administration (two years in music). Most importantly, I was a waitress for 10 years, where I learned about customer service, with a smile (40 years old).

I hope to hear from at least one of you. If not, then, as one friend stated, "What's the point?".

-- Marla Christensen (Supready@aol.com), November 27, 1999.