Andy,

What happend to gold? I took your advice and lost my ass on it. Thanks a lot !!!

-- (Tin@cup.com), October 30, 1999

Answers

For the spot price of gold:
http://mrci.com/qpnight.htm
http://www.kitco.com/gold. graph.html

For the spot price of silver:
http://www.kitco.com/sil ver.graph.html

For the spot price of platinum:
http://www.kitco.com/p latinum.graph.html

For U.S. Markets and stock quotes:
http://finance.yahoo.com/?u

For Major World Indices:
http://finance.yahoo.com/m2?u

Sincerely,
Stan Faryna

Got 14 days of preps? If not, get started now. Click here.

Click here and check out the TB2000 preparation forum.

-- Stan Faryna (faryna@groupmail.com), October 30, 1999.

If you were following Andy's advice by reading all of his postings, then you would know why we had this recent dip, you would also know that the price of gold is being manipulated down, but will go back up shortly, this time to $400 or so (?) and perhaps go back down another time or two before it is decoupled from the paper trading market price which is what you see fluctuating, and what real gold is pegged to. Now the major problem with this is that there is a huge demand for real gold but there isn't enough to satisfy the demand, most especially when it comes to the leasing game. So if you really were following Andy and his postings, you wouldn't be sweating the price and wouldn't be lamenting about losing anything.

-- OR (orwelliator@biosys.net), October 30, 1999.

Many knowledgeable people still consider this a great opportunity to buy PM's, especially silver.

-- Porky (Porky@in.cellblockD), October 30, 1999.

Yeah, If you were following all of Andy's posts you also read how he believes gold is being manipulated by interplanetary supernatural beings and that humans were genetically engineered to mine gold for them. Andy is the kinda guy that buys into any screwy conspiracy theory that comes down the pipe, without any evidence.

Example: I asked him for backup on his long contended Arab oil for gold consiracy. He cited 3 books. One he subsequently admitted he had never read. The other directly refuted what he said (He obviously hadn't read that one either) and the 3rd was only available from a gold dealer.

If you lost your ass on Andy's advice let that be a lesson to you on the credibility of some of these posts. As a gal over at the USA gold forum responded once, "...do not let this idiocy (Andy and Dick Moody's interplanetary conspiracy exchange) denegrate the postings of the many well informed and serious gold investors ...". See, Tin Cup, its not gonna matter anyway. Those aliens from the 12th planet are gonna take over and we're going end up in some slave gold mining operation.

-- Downstreamer (downstream@bigfoot.com), October 30, 1999.

We're from the 8th planet, stewpeed hewmahns!

kooK2Y

-- Y2Kook (y2kook@usa.net), October 30, 1999.

Tin Cup: Gold, stocks, Monica's buns -- they all go up and down. What do you mean you lost your ass? Did you wait until gold was at 330 to buy? Why didn't you buy earlier? Like at $260? If you bought at $320 or $310, yes, you would be behind, at the moment. 6% or so at $300. BFD. Hewlett-Packard STOCK, for example, is down a hell of lot more than that. Remember, to make money, you got to buy low and sell high. When dealing physical, that means you got to buy, first, when the price is low. Then sell high, later. A simple concept, yet most of the sheeple do it the other way around. They wait until the stampede, then buy high, then when price goes down, they either bail for a realized loss, or just sit for a paper loss.

RIGHT NOW, while gold has retracted, is the time to BUY MORE. Buy one Maple Leaf if that's all you can afford. Or get some Central Fund Canada (symbol CEF) direct or through a broker. Open an e-gold (http://www.e-gold.com) account and get $20 worth (yes you can get in and scale buy and sell in diddly amounts.)

Lost your ass, my ass.

-- A (A@AisA.com), October 30, 1999.

The Nasdaq had a new high, the Dow is turning around nicely and is going to be over 11K by the middle of November. Joe Battipaglia and Abbey Joseph Cohen have been right. Andy has been DEBUNKED. What he has posted here may have caused people to have substantial losses. A possible outcome of this is that Andy will change his handle. Another is that he will quit posting until the market has a bad day. Andy, get a life, the market is not going to crash, gold will not rise appreciably more, and people will continue to make money in the market. I hope you become a GI.

-- jb smith (joebobsmith@yahoo.com), October 30, 1999.

Shame on you for not doing your own homework any better Tincup. Faulting Andy for your losses is not owning your own mistakes and a show of character implying that you are a mindless follower.

-- Chris (#$%^&@pond.com), October 30, 1999.

Chris,

Bite me.

-- (Tin@cup.com), October 30, 1999.

Liar Liar pants on fire...that's why ya lost yer ass....

-- You (bought@nothing.com), October 30, 1999.

I believe Andy bought this stock also. http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/custom/marketwatch-com/interactive- chart.asp?source=htx/http2_mwsid=1675&symb=drooy&country=US&time=6&fre q=1

-- xxxxx (stillin@themarket.com), October 30, 1999.

Jb and xxxxx and lost my Ass.

I am not your mummy, I cannot hod your hand.

grow up the lot of you - caveat emptor fer' crissakes.

you lot don't deserve to make any money or derserve to be given and good freakin' advice.

""So the gold price fell through $300 So what !

The bottom line that we have to remember is why it is up here in the first place, and exactly what there is out there that might suddenly turn it round again. My personal estimate (and hope, for my own career prospects!) is that gold will finish 1999 with a bang, not a whimper. I have been trying to not listen to the bearish droning and whining about the gold price for the last two weeks - as most of it is coming from self-interested bullion dealers and even gold mining companies, for one major reason: risk.

The gold price's move north of $300 caused a lot of problems in an industry self-absorbed and fatalistic, used to big contangoes and hedging as a means to profiteering in a bear market, and gold mining as a sideshow. The hedge books of companies in some cases were bigger than their market caps, and represented big unrealized potential gains at $250 gold, should the management be brainy enough to take the money and run. The simple fact is that these hedge books are still there, and I can think of at least five companies that have sold TEN times their yearly production (can you believe a gold company would be that bearish on its core commodity that it would give away production for ten years???) - only expose themselves to serious financial risk in the case of one of those hundred-year events, a gold price explosion.

What a bunch of turkeys.

My own opinion is not worth much, but I am vehemently anti-hedging. And the endless bull - management has been feeding shareholders about how safe these hedge books are - is making me feel cheated out of performance from a sector that I had written off for a lot of this year. Consequently my recommendations for good situations is limited to those with new projects (exploration companies in some cases), and to producers that haven't sold the family jewels already.

The gold price has dipped below $300/oz on light volume selling - and the usual crap from US-friendly central banks helping out beleaguered bullion dealers - and gold companies from a very tight spot (this time the Kuwaitis).

The facts driving this market at present are still the same. And I am getting pretty bullish on the gold price, and particularly bullish on some of the smaller situations that have been knocked down to bargain prices again - and in some cases trade lower than they did before the gold price rise! (e.g. Viceroy at $1.25!!!). If you are a chartist, gold has come back and filled the gap it made during its rise to $340 on that mad morning when a hedge fund covered. At $300 it is testing solid support and I believe a lot of gold companies are opportunistically looking for a chance to cover hedges, many of which involve options struck at $300. You have to remember some key facts as to why the price is as high as it is:

1) World demand is approx. 4500 tonnes per year vis-a-vis production of 2500-3000 tonnes

2) Physical demand is up 20% this year, mainly from Asian buying when the gold price tested $260.

3) Approximately 10000 tonnes has been lent out into the market to finance hedge books, many of which are unprofitable and present credit and financial risk to counterparties.

4) Counterparties (bullion & lending banks) have worn derivative debacles in Yen, bonds, swaps and copper in the last two years, mostly from hedge funds getting caught.

5) hedge funds are short to the tune of 3000 tonnes, uncovered by any production or reasonable way of covering positions, mostly through options.

6) The gold lease rates normally trade at 0.5% for 12 months. They spiked to 10% for a week, causing pain everywhere when option books started blowing up and the precious "contango" ie the premium of future prices to spot deteriorated. They still remain above 1.5%-2% and mark the new status of gold as a commodity in short supply.

7) Gold traded down to $250 because of aggressive short selling by producers, bullion banks, and hedge funds looking to make a buck from a bear market without considering the risks.

8) The marginal cost per ounce of increasing production globally is approximately $270. This represents a cutoff level where gold companies usually make a loss from extra production. This is especially true in old orebodies in Australia and South Africa. And for all the announcements you see of Barricks' Pierina producing at sub-$100, there are four projects out there with unprofitable production that have to be seriously looked at for future viability.

9) Exploration budgets are one-third or less than what they were two years ago. New ounces are not being discovered faster than they are used, and many mines have been high-grading to maintain profitability in a falling gold price (another one of the things I loathe in companies!!)

10) The announcement of the European Central Banks decision to curtail new sales, and most importantly lending will effectively limit new hedging (where can they borrow the gold from????) and actively discourage renewal of old hedges as contangoes evaporate and the bottom line reason, the profit, disappears.

11) The US economy has finally acknowledged that inflation is alive and well (implied by bond yields of 6.40%) and interest rate hikes are on the way. The US dollar is under serious pressure from other world currencies (the euro and the yen for what its worth!) due to its mushrooming deficit and the huge amount of credit creation from good old Mr. Greenspan. Gold has been shown time and time again to be a hedge against US dollar weakness.

This is why I am bullish and this is why I don't care that the gold price is under $300 again. I believe there are a lot of Ashantis out there, and most of the them will not be disclosed until we get another spike in gold -- which I believe is not too far off.

Look for a base around $295, then another event (such as a falling Dow, a hedge book explosion, a credit default, the announcement by the Swiss that they wont sell etc etc) to set it off and running. If you are a chartist, you will recognize a flag pattern and consolidation formation in the last month or so, signifying a volatility explosion in the not-too-distant future. I believe the direction of this explosion will be up, for the reasons listed.

Basically there is too much random uncertainly out there right now to not be bullish gold - stocks are volatile, bonds keep falling, the US dollar keeps weakening,Y2K is alive and well, and the world is looking increasingly like it is sick and tired of the US dollar being the only alternative. Many Asians were upset by the attitude of the US to their plight when Asia crashed, and the Europeans were mortified when their brand new currency lost 20% in its first quarter. There are big moves going on behind the scenes and I am plugged into only some of them. I have heard the following rumors:

1) The Europeans agreed to stop lending gold to prevent further loss in the value of their reserves. The resulting volatility explosion was a planned event meant to further undermine the US dollar and cause headaches for Wall Street banks and hedge funds that had been actively shorting the euro.

2) George Soros had been plugged into the above and was a massive long gold player and still holds a big position, with full intent to squeeze some competitors (e.g. Tiger) shortly.

3) The Saudis have been huge buyers (I can confirm this is a fact - don't know why though) and are involved in the Euro thing as a repeat of their huge win in silver in the 1970s (see Bunker Hunt's squeeze). etc etc etc I am trying to illustrate that the market is pretty complicated and the gold price is like a window on to the credit flows of the world. It has been used as a funding mechanism by hedge funds (massive shorting to buy bonds) and a profit centre for bullion banks and gold producers. The smart in-crowd made stacks on the way down and are giving some of it back on the way up - I am not shedding too many tears.

Hopefully, you now feel a little more comfortable about holding gold companies in your portfolio and you should see gains in the gold price before year end (at the very least, as a Y2K spike.)

P.S. Patience!!! The gold price will base soon and move north FAST."

An annonymous analyst - 30th october...

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 30, 1999.

And to lost my ass

GOLD

think long term moron - not just to your next pay check...

The Gold Market as A Metaphor for America FINAL PART

The answer: in the extreme case in which the money printing Presses cannot work or in the more possible case in which a US Dollar crisis results, along with an accompanying repudiation of the US Dollar by foreigners for their most vital goods and services. In other words, gold and silver...not necessarily for domestic transactions but rather for foreign transactions.

For those who think such an eventuality is impossible, you might well ask the South Koreans how much in terms of real goods did their collapsed currency purchase during the country's financial crisis in '97?

The answer: NOT MUCH!

In fact, the Won fell so hard that the Korean government solicited its citizenry to turn over all their gold. This gold was then melted down, refined, and sold to other governments, the proceeds used to resuscitate the Korean economy.

But for those who have any doubts, the real source of demand for physical gold in the future will be coming from US banks and other major financial institutions. Thanks to the recent European Central Banks' cap on gold lease activity plus their cap on future gold sales, the gold carry trade is now forced to unwind its enormous short positions in gold.

Major Wall Street investment banks and hedge funds have been using the gold carry trade, the silver carry trade, the Yen carry trade, the Aussie Dollar carry trade, the Canadian Dollar carry trade, etc. to obtain cheap, if not effectively free money, this past decade. The various carry trades involve the borrowing of the respective precious metals or currencies, that are then shorted aggressively into the market, the resulting dollar proceeds used for either US treasury bond purchases or other more speculative US Dollar investments. Profits result in almost a brain-dead manner.

In the case of precious metals, profit is simply the difference between the low lease rates and the much higher rates received from the US bonds....or in the case of currencies, the difference between the much lower interest rates required to borrow foreign currencies and the much higher bond rates. So long as either the borrowed precious metals or borrowed currency depreciate in value, caused by the relentless sales pressure brought to bear by Wall Street firms in the face of little to no counteractive buy pressure from any other source, then repayments of the loans will always result in profit.

Virtually free money! What a scam!

Contrary to popular belief as shaped by mainstream media, it is really the carry trades that provided a flood of cheap money to Wall Street and it is owing primarily to the carry trades that we now have bubble stock and bond markets in America.

Contrary to Mr. Greenspan's spin, the stock market verticality has less to do with productivity improvements based upon technological innovation....and more to do with Wall Street's longstanding raids against precious metals and foreign currencies, hammering them into the ground. The carry trades have been the ultra-cheap fuel driving the surging stock and bond markets throughout the Nineties. It is that simple!

However, now faced with the reversal in currency and commodity trends especially in the form of a strengthening Yen and a resurgent Gold price, the most dependable carry trades are falling apart.

So prepare for the shit to hit the proverbial fan!

The dramatic unwinding of once reliable carry trades means the fuel for the great Bull market is fast running out. With US Dollar weakness comes foreign repatriation of US investments, one of the most essential components of the Nineties' equities Bull market.

Scariest of all, America's bullion banks and hedge funds -- some of the largest financial institutions in the country including JP Morgan, Chase Manhattan, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, Tiger Fund, etc. -- are rumored to hold aggregate gold short positions and gold- based derivatives, amounting to some 10,000 tons amassed over the past decade. To provide you some perspective on that figure, let me remind you that each year only 2500 tons of gold are mined in the entire world.

So, in effect, some of America's major financial institutions might be holding a gold short position equivalent to FOUR ENTIRE YEARS OF GLOBAL GOLD PRODUCTION!

For those of you who have read the papers and seen gold jump up $70 in a matter of 10 days recently ( a figure equal to the total price movement of gold over the past four years!), then my revelation of the total gold short position held by America's finest financial institutions should send shivers down your spine. Because it seems that short of major intervention by the US government to either cap the precious metals prices via emergency sales of gold from Fort Knox -- currently prohibited by America's constitution except by congressional approval -- or else a complete suspension of all trading in the precious metals markets, then we are quite likely to witness the most spectacular short squeeze ever seen in American history.

Let me remind you once again: Gold guru, Phil Spicer of the Central Fund of Canada, has called for an equilibrium price of around $2000- $3000 an ounce, and that is most likely on the conservative side.

So in getting back to the question posed by gold's most feverish critics:

"What can you do with gold today besides make jewelry and fill teeth?"

The answer is this: restore gold's former role as a necessary constraint upon money supply creation. Without such constraint, then the world, this country, is always under threat of a possible super- inflation resulting from excessive credit creation. However, this time, bring gold into the Hi Tech Age and convert it into a hybrid, that is digital gold or E-gold. Re-invent gold and turn it into the "new tires" for the New American economy. What this means is that physical gold still would be required to create money supply . No gold, no credit creation. However instead of transferring heavy gold bars back and forth from one vault to another, the transfer would be effected digitally. The only physical aspect of E-Gold would be the real imperative verification of the physical gold backing each digital ounce in every single country's account. Furthermore, the amount of physical gold in each country's "account" would determine the amount of money supply allowed within each particular country. People would still continue to transact in digital bits, plastic, and paper proxies...but always subject to each country's gold allowance for credit creation.

Critics of such a plan argue that any Gold Standard would constrain money supply thus triggering one recession and /or one depression after another. The same critics claim that America could never have effected its current bull expansion if it were constrained by available gold in a vault.

In fact, those critics are speaking the Truth.

Under any Gold Standard, America's hyper economic growth would have been reigned in many years ago. However, on the positive side, the current global inflation threat would be much much less. Or on the flip side of the coin, a Gold Standard would have precluded the threat of an imminent debt implosion arising from problems in the 80 trillion dollar derivatives market.

Yes, paradoxically, Americans today are facing a simultaneous threat from both inflation and deflation. Either result could occur, depending upon which lever is thrown by the monetary authorities.

Conceivably, we might even end up with what is popularly called "inflationary depression," or what some economists call "stagflation." No matter what the result, it is safe to say that a Gold Standard would never have tolerated the creation of such huge ridiculous debt levels in our financial system. Without the gold backing, the debt could not exist. It is that simple.

Furthermore, under a Gold Standard, America might have escaped its current tulip bulb craze aka the internet mania, with all its harmful effects to the economy, as capital is grossly misallocated from real goods production into the creation of websites and dot coms. Thus America finds itself in the scary predicament of watching its farms and mines shut down for lack of funding while a plethora of inane, inessential websites flourish.

If it comes down to a choice someday between food versus internet websites...between strategic metals versus Ebay...then I think most Americans would opt for the former.

Naturally, for the self-interested reasons I described earlier, the Wall Street Establishment does not want any semblance of a Gold Standard and resists all efforts to promote gold as a financial asset. Young Americans, who have prospered in this Decade of Plenty here in America, have no knowledge nor interest in gold and are quite happy to see their stocks and bonds soar toward the heavens. Furthermore, young Americans have grown up within a world in which America always gets its way. Whatever America wants, America gets. They are accustomed to this decade-long status quo and cannot imagine any reason why it will end.

Unfortunately, the American dominated global status quo appears to be under siege. The first shot has been fired by the Europeans with the creation of the EURO, the continental currency, designed to challenge US Dollar hegemony. The second shot will likely be fired by the Asians who are busily attempting to create an Asian Currency Standard. Finally, the Middle Eastern nations are attempting to patch together a money standard based upon the Islamic Dinar, and the South Americans are hatching their own common currency surprise.

This new international rebellion against the US Dollar should be no surprise to anybody following world events the past few years. Under US Dollar hegemony, playing capitalism by the American set of rules, whole regions have seen incredible progress stopped dead in its tracks, inevitably followed by economic crisis and despair.

Try telling the family in Indonesia -- compelled to eat the bark of trees during that country's recent currency collapse -- the great wonders and benefits of American-style capitalism.

Or try telling it to the Brazilian businessman who spent years busting his butt to create a successful company, only to have it destroyed via double digit interest rate increases designed to protect his country against currency collapse.

Or finally try telling the Russian street-woman about the glories of American capitalism, as she watches in horror while gangsters take over her entire nation and turn it into a bloody chaotic killing field.

Whilst all this misery has been occurring the past several years, Wall Street has been having one helluva party. The tears of foreigners have been cause for rejoicing in America as Wall Street analysts extol the deflationary benefits to America of financial chaos in various countries all over the world.

You say the Korean currency collapse forced the people there into a desperate barter system for survival?

So what! It brought down the prices of TV's in America.

You say that the Russian economic collapse left its citizens lined up outside their banks, urgently trying to get their money out?

Big deal! At least while they're preoccupied trying to save their houses, they can't threaten America with their nuclear weapons.

You say that the economic collapse of Asia left them unable to afford to drive their cars?

Who cares! Americans can now afford all the Sports Utility Vehicles they want, at 10 miles to the gallon, and never worry about excessive foreign demand for oil sending gas prices through the roof.

Is it any wonder that Americans have never been more despised by foreigners than they are today?

It has taken some time but these foreigners have come to realize that US Dollar hegemony is one of the major reasons why this great debtor nation can produce so little yet consume so much, at the expense of other countries. America derives great unearned benefits by virtue of its role as "provider of the global RESERVE currency." So, the developing international race for gold is much less a case of GOLD- LOVE and more a case of US DOLLAR-HATE. Increasingly, countries are searching for a transactional medium that frees them from US Dollar tyranny.

Will gold become the "new tires" necessary to drive America's New Economy?

Actually, I really doubt it! Even in a reconstituted, digitized form, gold is anathema to a variety of powerful international interests.

So here's my prediction: I think that this never-ending global financial chaos will reach a climactic point and we will know it has finally arrived when there is a huge economic crisis right here in America. When America finally realizes that it, too, is not immune from the last several years of global economic turmoil, then I predict a meeting of the nations of the world will result. Forced to sit down at a table together, the community of nations will redesign once and for all a viable economic system free of its persistent, chronic dysfunctionalities.

So the new tires, if I might hazard a guess, will consist of a multi- regional currency standard, comprised of a fixed proportion of US Dollars, Euros, Dinars, Asian Currency Units, etc. or some such facsimile.

In effect: equal regional currencies...all combined together into a new, money unit.

This evolution to a more enlightened world reserve currency basket will take time however. It surely will not happen overnight and the interstitial period will be a tough one. There will be numerous bankruptcies, foreclosures, margin calls, and debt reworkings. America's "New Ferrari" might have to spend some time sitting in the mechanics shop while they send out for the brand new tires essential to its proper function.

However, during this time when America's New Economy experiences a critical shock, I expect gold will once again reassert itself as the most desired financial safety haven during times of economic crisis. Once again, gold will serve as a "bridge" to better financial times.

Let us hope America gets itself out of the mechanics shop as quickly as possible and let us also hope that when it does, the ENTIRE community of nations will have designed their own "new Ferraris" and can join America on a most wonderful, prosperous ride into the Future.

David Cohen November 1, 1999

You may contact Mr. Cohen at soulmates@lvcm.com

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 30, 1999.

Interesting that Mr. Cohen in Andy/s post mentions "E-Gold" in a generic sense. There is an actual e-gold (http://www.e-gold.com) where you can have an account in any or any combination of gold, silver, platinum, palladium. Depending on how many Yen, US$, etc., you convert, you will get whatever metal(s), in account, to the fractional ounce.

-- A (A@AisA.com), October 31, 1999.

A

I have been tempted to open an account but I fear at rollover it may be susceptible to all sorts of glitches... I like the idea of it but I still want the metal in my hand in the next few months (at least out to summer 2000).

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 31, 1999.

Mr Andy, We understand you are constantly boasting about have lots of physical gold. We look forward to meeting you. Denver is not so large and we have our contacts.

-- The Don (Mafia@Everywhere.com), October 31, 1999.

Oooh I've always liked Italians duckie :)

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 31, 1999.

I hope your "bolgna" is up to snuff dearie...

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 31, 1999.

Ooops Silly me, I meant "bologna", but hey, what's your "salami" like petal?

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 31, 1999.