I believe it will,but at a much faster pace.Starting with a stock market crash,bank closings,depression and rationing like WW2.Do you remember ration coupon books?

I had read Howard Ruffs book "How to prosper during the coming bad years" in 1980 and again recently.It is still relevant today,it talks about deflation/inflation,the stages of rationing,what to invest in,what to store in case of shortages(ie:food,etc.)Presidential powers,barter and alot more.He said "as of now,98% of the food you eat is dependent upon petroleum and natural gas,and a cut-off of these commodities at a crucial time could be disastrous."

-- Maggie (aaa@aaa.com), October 30, 1999

Answers

... the world's great civilizations averaged a cycle of 200 years. Those societies progressed through this sequence: From bondage to spiritual faith. From spiritual faith to great courage. From great courage to liberty. From liberty to abundance. From abundance to selfishness. From selfishness to complacency. From complacency to apathy. From apathy to dependency. From dependency back again into bondage.

-- zoobie (zoobiezoob@yahoo.com), October 30, 1999.

Maggie. Howard Ruff was wrong. That's the problem with you doomers. You think only the bad thoughts. Try a positive attitude.

-- (eyeON@theProblem.com), October 30, 1999.

Maggie... synchronisity. I just ran across Ruff's book yesterday while going through boxes of misc. junk and papers looking for something else. Bought it at a book sale and have not read it yet. So you think I should dust it off and read it? Any more info about what you gleaned from its pages? Thanks.

-- Linda (lwmb@psln.com), October 30, 1999.

"By the Law of Periodical Repetion,everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously,but at regular periods,and each thing in its own period,not another's,and each obeying its own law...the same Nature which delights in periodical repition in the skies the nature which orders the affairs of the earth.Let us not underate the value of that hint."

-Mark Twain

A great book on cycles is

Cycles

The Mysterious Forces That Trigger Events

By Edward R.Dewey,with Og Mandino

-- Maggie (aaa@aaa.com), October 30, 1999.

I enjoy the answers here. BTW ... zoobie just described the Book of Judges in the Bible. Humankind really hasen't changed at all.

tim

-- tim (timdaniels@commonsense.com), October 30, 1999.

Linda,

The book has so many good ideas.I need to reread the part about his warnings about possible rationing and how to tell the three stages which might be implamented(sp?)Even though he wrote the book almost 30 years ago,I believe you will get some good info on preparing for y2k.

He talks about getting a small car and mop-peds in case of problems with gas,spare parts for them,wood stoves,water purifiers,vitamins and recommends --Making the best of basics by James Talmage Stevens and Passport to Survival by Esther Dicky.When you read it,you will think it was written for the possible problems due to y2k.

This part doesn't pertain to y2k--If you have a teenager,you might think of buying a mo-ped for him/her,it will surprise you on how little the insurance is.We had done this when our son began to drive,check it out,it saved us alot of money.

-- Maggie (aaa@aaa.com), October 30, 1999.

Eye on the problem,

I have a positive attitude because I have prepared to take care of myself and am not relying on others to do it for me and will still have one after the first of the year when those who have not taken responsibility for themselves don't have one.

-- Maggie (aaa@aaa.com), October 30, 1999.

The probelm with you Doomers is that you feel that humans can NEVER change, be it ten years or a thousand years in the future, hence your piss poor attitude about everything.

-- (_@_.*&(%*&%%*%%), October 30, 1999.

@: The problem now is not whether we have a positive attitude toward our fellow man or not, it is a problem of a machine(computer). Do we feel that the odds are so great in favor of remediation that we would risk our families by doing nothing? If I prepare for the worst due to what I think the odds are am I a doomer by your definition? If so, so be it. I look and pray for the positive things that have been happening. However, I do not look at the computer problem as our only problem or necessarily our most contentious. Think NBC!!!

-- Neil G.Lewis (pnglewis1@yahoo.com), October 30, 1999.

Learning from history, while important, is fraught with the potential for misinterpretation. While some things tend to repeat, the entire fact situation is wildly different elsewhere every time, and different elements, however defined, interact in different ways every time. Remember that you cannot step into the same river twice.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), October 30, 1999.

Yes, I've read Mr. Ruffs' book as well. So tell me pollys, on the bondage to bondage cycle, where would you say we are?!? I'll tell you: apathy and dependage! Soon back into bondage...

-- Crono (Crono@timesend.com), October 30, 1999.

Crono:

And why is anyone who disagrees with you on this topic a polly? Isn't it possible to believe that we're headed downhill fast as a society, but y2k won't have anything to do with it?

Or is a polly anyone who disagrees with you about *anything*? Yourdon himself has never even implied that we're heading for bondage in a handbasket, and believes we'll recover in a decade. Does this make him a polly? Or does this make you a fool?

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), October 30, 1999.

--(eyeON@theProblem.com)

I was in an organization many years ago in which I had to read many, many books, listen to tapes etc. most of which were positive attitudes, post it on the refrigerator, keep the note cards and read them through the day etc. Did it for --YEARS-- constantly, truly believing the lies that were were written, trusting they would work. They did not.

Since that time I have found in my forty some odd years that the ones who are always spouting off to everyone else to have a positive attitude are most generally the ones who were --

1. Born with a silver spoon in their mouths.

2. Had a very nice childhood and everyone around them always made life easy and smooth for them.

3. Have just been at the right place at the right time in life, luck of the draw.

4. Have never really had any major difficulty to over come so really have no experiences on what life has thrown at other people so speak out of ignorance.

I think you and most of your polly positives fall into one of these.

By the way hang nails and flat tires don't count as hard times, nor a few months without a job during a recession. We need to talk about years for some people, 25 years or more, of hard times no matter how much they work or how hard they try to overcome, never get to the first rung of the ladder to escape the pit they were born into or walked into by accident.

I would like to see you and some of your polly positives after a few years of what many people have gone through keep those uppity positive attitudes.

You take each day as it comes, do your best in that day and pray for Gods mercy for the next. That is how you get through life, if you were not born with a silver spoon in your mouth or by the luck of timing in the right place at the right time, or are born a person who most of society has prejudices against so does not offer you the breaks that you see people less informed and less educated or less competent or less of an intelligent - hard worker and less a skirt get offered.

Wise One

-- Wise One (wiseone@withear.org), October 30, 1999.

Wise one:

I question whether your implied fatalism is all that wise. You seem to be saying that effort is futile, education is a waste, hard work is never rewarded, being in the right place at the right time is pure chance, and that any skills or abilities you develop can never be used to improve the lot in life that fate has decreed for you.

Yes, good and bad fortune play their roles in life, there's no avoiding this entirely. But if you haven't made much of your life, well, "the fault lies not in our stars but in ourselves that we are underlings." Few successful countries have a meaningful caste system or heriditary nobility. Most losers *earn* it.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), October 30, 1999.

Sounds to me like Wise One want people to feel guilty for not being downtrodden.

A concept I will never understand.

-- (_@_._@_._@_.), October 30, 1999.

MAGGIE:

Actually, your post is very close to the truth, but history repeats in NON-PERIODIC repetition. It is all based on chaos theory and fractals. Or, to look at it in a less-mathematical sense, there have been KONDRATIEFF cycles around since at least the MAYANS! It's just that the great Russian re-discovered them when he investigated capitalist economics.

These cycles vary from 45-60 years. The scary part is that this is the LONGEST cycle in capitalist history--it is taking longer to unfold, and unfortunately the extra time has been bought with unrepayable DEBT.

-- profit of doom (doom@helltopay.ca), October 30, 1999.

MAGGIE:

Actually, your post is very close to the truth, but history repeats in NON-PERIODIC repetition. It is all based on chaos theory and fractals. Or, to look at it in a less-mathematical sense, there have been KONDRATIEFF cycles around since at least the MAYANS! It's just that the great Russian re-discovered them when he investigated capitalist economics.

These cycles vary from 45-60 years. The scary part is that this is the LONGEST cycle in capitalist history--it is taking longer to unfold, and unfortunately the extra time has been bought with unrepayable DEBT. We have now gone 70 years without a Great Depression, which is simply one "season" of the Kondratieff long-wave(analogous to the Supercycle degree in Elliott Wave theory).

BTW, don't all you pollys mouth off too loudly about the "DOW UP, BLAH, BLAH". Up relative to when? There is an EXTREMELY accurate source that says we are at the peak of Wave 2, with an insidious Wave 3 to come in the next few days, that will pull the DOW down below 9000. Their wave count has NOT been wrong in the entire march up to the peak on Aug 24/25.

Take a look at the DJIA just in 1999. Ithas barely moved at all in over 6 months. Meanwhile, the vast majority of stocks since then have steadily grinded DOWNHILL.

There is even a quote from the Bible about all this: I believe it's ECCLESIASTES, and says "... and there is nothing new under the sun."

Ancient wisdom we could all heed.Forgotten by time.

-- profit of doom (doom@helltopay.ca), October 30, 1999.

I don't want --ANYONE-- to BE down trodden. And YES most of the people who succeed in the corporate world are just at the right place at the right time.

As far as a loser that is another problem with Polly positives they think that everyone is a loser unless the other person is just like them. A loser is one that quits in life.

I did not mean to imply that effort was futile. It may be futile in some cases so move on to another place where your efforts may be appreciated or start your own business which I did. I do not judge people whether they are winners or losers because ---I am not God--- and do not know all the facts of what all they have overcome just to be where they are in life at their present time. Some people who may not seem to have as many material goods, may be much more of a winner than a polly positive who lives in a $300,000. house driving a Mercedes because they may have overcome much more to get where they are than the polly perfect born with a silver spoon in their mouth has overcome. Polly positives always want to ignore facts. That is one problem with so many companies not preparing for possible Y2K problems. The polly positives in these companies do not want to even discuss that something BAD may happen and fix the problem NOW.

I have seen people with good education, almost 4.0 in college, who work very hard, give excellent ideas to the company that the company used to profit be passed over in preference of males who do not even know the same things or put forth the same effort. There is racial, gender, age, height, weight, even sector of the country you come from prejudices at work every day and anyone who says there are not is somewhere other than reality.

That is the problem with polly positives they lose touch with reality and do not see the vast efforts many, many people put forth who are NEVER rewarded properly. The polly positives think they can just think a thing into being and "for gosh sake if everyone else would just be like me then they could have it too" -----bboooonnnggggg----you are wrong! There IS prejudice and favorites in the world and the ones in current control of the world finances choose who they will advance and it has nothing to do with who deserves it by their work effort, record in producing profits or reaching goals, education or loyality to the company it is mostly just the right place at the right time and WHO you (Bl) or (kn)ow.

THESE are facts madame!

Wise One

-- Wise One (wiseone@withear.org), October 30, 1999.

Wise One

" We need to talk about years for some people, 25 years or more, of hard times no matter how much they work or how hard they try to overcome, never get to the first rung of the ladder to escape the pit they were born into or walked into by accident."

True understanding of this can come only from experience.

-- frog (still here@waiting.com), October 30, 1999.

Wise one:

What you write is the truth, but neither the whole truth nor nothing but the truth. That makes your viewpoint hard to disentangle.

To begin with, life isn't fair. You're right about this. Starting right from birth (as you say) and forever after. Some who are promoted don't deserve it, but in most successful companies these are a minority (*unless* the government enforces quotas, of course). Companies who consistently pass over good people in favor of incompetent people don't last long. Yes, there is a tendency to see the good more than the bad in people most "like" us in some sense, thus exaggerating their *apparent* abilities.

But it is possible to improve your lot in life with effort. As you imply, this can take some trial and error. And you have to assess yourself accurately enough to recognize your own strengths and weaknesses. My tendency to analyze everything makes me a good engineer, but a terrible salesman. Certainly I recognize that salesmen make a lot more money than engineers. Too bad, because I'm not qualified by disposition for that position. If I kept shooting for a sales job, I'd be both poor and frustrated.

Similarly, *who* you know is much more important in some jobs than others. Computers don't care who you know. Politicians care about little else. And face it, managerial positions are political. If you aren't a "people" person or a technical person, you need to decide what skill you have or can develop that will be of value to someone who is a "people" person. If you can make a living doing what you enjoy, be thankful. If others with less skill get paid more, bummer. But resentment won't help. Maybe a change of scenery?

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), October 30, 1999.

Profit of Doom,Going back to my original post,I was trying to say unlike the cycle,starting with the bubble build up of the stock market of the 1920's thru the rationing period of the war,I believe y2k has added a new dimension to the equation.In doing so will greatly SPEEDUP these events,once started,the timer of such--possibly beginning with a stock market crash and subsequent(sp?)events moving at a faster pace there after(unlike the previous cycle).

Flint,I agree that each cycle has it's own unique properties.

Wise One,indeed I believe you are from what you have written.Wisdom comes from lessons learned from experience.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

I wasn't saying that Man doesn't have free will for his/her own individual actions.I'm sorry if you got that impression.

-- Maggie (aaa@aaa.com), October 30, 1999.

"Wise One,indeed I believe you are from what you have written.Wisdom comes from lessons learned from experience."

Maggie, my Dear...

ALL wisdom comes from the Father, which art in Heaven. Experience comes from lessons learned from experience, no more.

-- Start reading (Wisdom@Bible.God), November 02, 1999.