Hi folks

My sister lives in Albuquerque and is a mix between DGI and ostrich (denial). Last night I called her and we got into a heated debate about Y2K. Her feelings are as follows:

Y2K is going to be no big deal, we lived for thousands of years without computers so well be fine if they all crash.

Why prep if the .gov will confiscate everything anyway under Martial Law?

Why do you only go to those bad-news (doomer) sites? Why dont you go to the good-news (polly) sites?

If it happens, it happens. Im not going to worry about anything I cant do anything about.

How do you know that the crap you are reading is true? Why dont you believe what the mainstream media is reporting?

Why would our government lie to us about this?

Isnt it good to not alarm the people of the US about something that might not happen?

So, you see, I had quite a debate going. I gave her my answers but was interested in what you (my like-minded associates) would have said under the circumstances. I sincerely would like you to take the time and give me your response if you are so inclined.

One note; DGI sis said, I do not believe anythings going to happen. I certainly dont think it will be anywhere as bad as you think. (I think it will be a 5) I asked her what she bases her opinion on. The reply is very simple, a gut feeling.

Help if you will, after 24 hours Ill forward this post along to her for her reading pleasure.

Thanks in advance for your help

-- Uncle Bob (UNCLB0B@Y2KOK.ORG), October 29, 1999

Answers

I need to know just a little bit more about her before I can respond. Specifically, does your sister like to mudwrestle?

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.cum), October 29, 1999.

Hi Bob:

Maybe this will help... If she's right, then she'll laugh at you for your silliness, and wasting all that money on preps, then life goes on.

If she's wrong, and the lights go out for a lengthy period.

After a few days, the "have nots" in the area will form wandering gangs targeting the "haves" Chances are she'll be repeatedly raped and then sold for ...oh, maybe a loaf of bread. If she's married, then her husband will probably be killed trying to protect her. Sooner or later she'll start following the hordes of starving people selling herself for a can of beans. If she has a daughter of at least 9 then she'll be taken, raped and sold. Ulitmately she may drift into a Gov camp where, filled with disease she'll probably die.

Far Fetched? Just happened in Bosnia, and Yugoslavia,

So the question for sis becomes this. There's a 50/50 chance that the lights will stay on, so ya gotta ask yourself one question sis....Do I feel Lucky!

Well do ya' Sis?

"I got my mind right boss" Luke

-- Luke (highplainsdrifter@home.com), October 29, 1999.

Prepare a "Care Package" for her and give it to her as a thanksgiving gift. Include Water, Rice, Beans, Canned goods. Basically a bug out bag of stuff. She may not understand at the time, but it may save her life...

-- Helium (Heliumavid@yahoo.com), October 29, 1999.

Luke, prove to me there is a 50/50 chance that the lights are going to go out.

-- Prove It (or@shut.up), October 29, 1999.

Prove It

My intention is for this to be constructive, not disruptive. Please go flame somewhere else. You can no more prove to anyone that the "lights will stay on" than I, or anyone else, can prove that they will go out. Please return to your porn site and go F*** yourself...

-- Uncle Bob (UNCLB0B@Y2KOK.ORG), October 29, 1999.

Uncle Bob,

Luke suggested using a statistic in order to try to convert someone to the 'GI' position. I asked him to prove this statistic. I am not asking him to prove the if the lights will go out or not, I am just asking him to back up his statistic with a reliable source. Surely you are not suggesting that it is ok to lie to people with the hope that they will convert to your belief system?

-- Prove It (or@shut.up), October 29, 1999.

Ask her how she will do without oil, or how the .gov will do without the IRS. Then show her the documentation. It's not hard to find. If she still wants to keep her head up her @@@ so be it.

-- FLAMEAWAY (blehman202@aol.com), October 29, 1999.

I agree with Uncle, "Prove It." Get down from the box you use to climb up and get "in our face," and take it elsewhere, shorty.

Liberty

-- Liberty (liberty@theready.now), October 29, 1999.

Liberty obviously you can not prove it, but I will wait and see if Luke can.

-- Prove It (or@shut.up), October 29, 1999.

I'll try to help.

Try to impart the consequence of being prepared as essentially nothing. Have food, have some water, have some wood. If these things are needed, you are ready. If everything turns out ok, then eat the food, drink or dump the water and burn the wood. Don't get into a battle of what may and may not work. No one knows these things, but staying rational and have things you normally use is not silly or stupid at all. I hope this advice is taken with the spirit in which it is given. This day will go down as the worst of the flame/polly/troll event yet. Relax and calm comes with preparing. I think most who have done so will agree. Much of the anxiety goes away with having set some things aside and hope they won't be being needed. I Hope the helps, Pete

-- Pete (phytorx@lanset.com), October 29, 1999.

Hmmmm!! How can an unknown be proven? 50/50 represents chance, just like the roll of the dice. It's not a statistic at all. With juice, there's no factors or degrees of on or off. It's one or the other. If the Grid folks are lying its "Off" If the Grid folks aren't, its "ON"

Prove It, you seem like someone in need of attention, and probably a "have not". On second thought..you're probably a "never had any"

-- Raniman (rainman@uh-oh.com), October 29, 1999.

Uncle Bob--

You are to be commended for hanging in there with your loved ones. I am fighting the same battle with mine. Had almost exactly the same conversation with my brother today. His comment was "People always hate the doomsayer. If you're wrong they laugh at you; if you're right they can be murderously angry with you. It's a no win situation. Why are you setting yourself up this way?"

Answer: It's the right thing to do, in my opinion, and the stakes in this game are as high as anyone has ever played for. I've been laughed at before and will undoubtedly be laughed at again. What I fear most is finding my family in the straits many of us fear come the middle of January, or February or whenever, and my preparations weren't enough, and I see the look in my father's eyes when he realizes he could have, should have helped. That's going to hurt.

So I keep trying.

I've put together a set of articles that I've been handing around and posted on the net...I've mentioned this on the board before. The tack I take is that basically things may be okay, but no one, from the programmers to Koskinen, to the people on this forum know what is going to happen. So it would be best to prepare. The argument is not intended to convince them that the world is about to end, only that NO ONE KNOWS and it would be--prudent--to prepare.

The site on the net is http://rampages.onramp.net/~bcheek/What-You-Should.htm

Feel free to direct your sister to it, or email me her address and I will send her a hard copy. Sometimes having something in their hands make it more real, and more readable.

Hang in there, Bob

-- William in Dallas (bcheek@onramp.net), October 29, 1999.

Give it up. I have found I cannot convince die-hard DGI's. They believe the Guv-ment won't let it happen. Never mind it is a "tech-thing". I agree with a previous post. Send her a food-survival care package, and tell her it is like car insurance.

-- Nana (drac@mediaone.net), October 29, 1999.

Rainman,

Thankyou for proving my point. It cannot be proven. Would it be acceptable using this logic to advise someone that they should squander all of their money and party like its 1999 becasuse there is a 50/50 chance that the earth is going to be destroyed by a shower of asteroids next week?

-- Prove It (or@shut.up), October 29, 1999.

Uncle Bob--

How about starting a new thread but with the same questions. Paste in the sincere responses. This way,she won't get the impression that this forun is choked with pseudo-intellects who can do nothing more than argue back and forth like fifth-graders. Nyaahhh.

-- Pete (phytorx@lanset.com), October 29, 1999.

Uncle Bob,

Since it's so so late in the game, just send her a care package as one of the previous posters mentioned. It's a great early Christmas present for the woman who as everything.

Also, e-mail, send, fax the gov't reports, the mountainous volume of articles that are available. I know. You have...

Keep it up because this in conjunction with some increasingly negative media coverage that might wake her up.. Print this thread out for the love of God.... That's all you can hope for..

-- PJC (paulchri@msn.com), October 29, 1999.

Uncle Bob,

It is late (and the care package is a good idea), but if I was going to send just one argument to a loved one right now it would be the Warren Bone article from Westergaard.
li nk

Whether or not she has net access, I would probably copy the article rather than just send the link. I've found that some people are so lazy that if you just provide an URL they will not read it, whereas if you copy the whole article, they will.

Good luck, Uncle. It's so hard when it's a loved family member. Please let us know how it goes.

-- (RUOK@yesiam.com), October 29, 1999.

Prove It There are too many mitigating, intangible, and unknown factors in the Y2K scenario to apply logic to, every one of them is bad. The government is not helping ally the peoples concerns either. People are not the most intelligent of beings, as evidenced by riots, looting and the like. We know something is going to happen, just not to what degree. It is better to err on the side of safety and be able to laugh it off, than be unprepared and at the mercy of an unknown.

-- Rainman (rainman@uh-oh.com), October 29, 1999.

Bob,

This ruse worked for me on my equally DGI bro. I asked him if the 3 day storm/Red Cross level of prep seemed reasonable. He answered yes. I asked him if he thought his neighbors were doing their own 3 day thing. He paused and said no. I mentioned that our normally overfed bretheren can get pretty hungry in 2 days. He's up to 60 days worth now.

Also, I've made a point of calling him more often since the first of the year (my epiphany time) blending y2k but trying hard, stubborn brute that he is, not to argue.

-- Carlos (riffraff1@cybertime.net), October 29, 1999.

Uncle Bob, there's a thoughtful article on prep over at the prep forum. It just might help.

-- The Great Pumpkin (sittin'@the.patch), October 29, 1999.

I passed through Albuquerque about a week ago. Had I known about your sis, I would have been glad to stop by in order to enlighten her.

I believe we are in for a big 10.

Why? Because people have already subjected me to a big 10 very early in my life. (I still can't believe that I'm still here, and in better shape than most everyone else.) Since then, more humans have become much greedier, evil, ignorant, doped, brain-washed, etc. Combine this with many other additional negative factors that were not present at an earlier time, and we can almost be guarateed a wonderful TEOTWAWKI.

May God bless you all.

-- Not Again! (Seenit@ww2.com), October 29, 1999.

I wrote my White Paper on the Y2K and Embedded Systems Crisis for DGI's in all walks of life from the President and Vice President, to Mr. Koskinen, media folk, and all of the rest of us. I hope it might help your sister understand why it is that the government has not been doing its job when it comes to Y2K, and what needs to happen in the remaining weeks (Part 5 focuses on that). Some points that I have tried to bring home are the following: ~The technological aspects of the challenges and threats posed by Y2K and embedded systems are apparently not as yet comprehensible to a majority of those in leadership roles in the Federal government including the President, the Vice President, and Mr. Koskinen;

~ The economy and narrow political considerations seem to be uppermost in the minds of these individuals;

~ They are apparently afraid to tell the public what they do know for fear this would panic the public; they are assuming that the public cannot handle bad news and rise to the occasion;

~ Many of those in key positions of responsibility apparently have decided that the public are not worthy of being treated as adult citizens of a free society;

~ They have made a colossal error in judgment thinking that there will be less public panic if the majority of the citizens of this nation go into the new year without having made any preparations that could have helped them and their families meet any challenges they might face.

~ Unless the current approach changes radically, there are going to be a lot of angry people around when they realize how poorly the Federal government has served them in failing to warn them, inform them, encourage them, and assist them in making personal, family, and community preparations.

~ Unless, major initiatives are launched in the remaining weeks, there are going to be even more angry people around when they realize that how little the Federal government did to prevent the technological disasters that are likely to occur;

~ To date, a majority of key government leaders have shown an astounding lack a sense of responsibility and integrity when it comes acquainting themselves with the threats and challenges we are facing and, once armed with that understanding, fulfilling their obligation to serve in the public interest and to act in ways that preserve the General Welfare and the security of the nation.

They are asleep on the job. Citizens have a responsibility to help wake them up. Communicating your concerns to elected and non-elected public officials is one way. Communicating your concerns to the media is another. Communicating your concerns to others you know and others in your community is another. Lots of resources are out there to drawn upon and help you make up for lost time. A list of selected references and resources, including resources on preparedness is available at my website. All six parts of the White Paper can be found at that website: http://www.gwu/edu/~y2k/keypeople/gordon. A growing number of video programs, panels, and presentations on Y2K and embedded systems can be found on the realvideo website that can be linked to from the above URL. A panel program on community preparedness is included among those videos. One of the most helpful presentations on that community preparedness panel tape is a discussion by Phillip Bogdonoff of the Center for Y2K & Society concerning the various stages that most individuals have to work through in coming to grips with the implications of the seriousness of the situation that they find themselves in when they finally "Get It".

-- Paula Gordon (pgordon@erols.com), October 29, 1999.

Bob,

I agree that you should cut and paste the responses.

What I do say to people who have a "gut feeling" that everything is going to be okay is simply that they have not read the available mainstream documentation such as the Senate Y2K subcommittee testomony and reports and Congressman Horn's Y2K report card. I don't blame them that they haven't, but they have missed the information that would clarify our position here.

Anyone looking at the U.S. Naval War College material, as well, would realize that there has been a great deal of thought at high levels of what some of the failure scenarios might look like. There is so much confirmation of our position from our government alone that an enormous doomer book might be made.

Tell your sister that the U.S. Coast Guard has sent a letter to its servicemen to prepare at home for dependents who might be caught by Y2K shortages. Mention that the Navy has had a prject to evaluate which cities will have failures of utilities after rollover--in order to prepare to protect their own facilities.

Mention that the economist for Deutsche Bank expects grave impacts on the economy from Y2K.

Say that a State Department official expects impacts in a majority of overseas countries studied and has warned that this will have a serious effect on our economy.

One could go on. The information is available, but, as Dr. Gordon has said, a decision was made not to reveal this information in a very public way. The government has chosen to keep its own counsel for whatever reason, leaving the citizen out of the equation. Luckily, some of us have been concerned enough to do the research.

Preparation is prudent. Further, there's no reason not to prepare. Nothing is wasted. Worst case (best case) you give some cans to food banks.

Lastly, ask her to do this for you. If she never does anything else again out of concern for her brother, beg her to do just this one thing without any more question.

-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), October 30, 1999.

proveit( and any others who wish to argue about the risk), it's not about the risk! It's about the stakes.

If I handed you a six-shot revolver with one full chamber would you put it to your temple and pull the trigger?

No? why not? you have a 5 in 6 six chance of coming out just fine.

Now suppose I handed you a revolver with somewhere between 1` and 100 chambers with only one bullet in it. Would you put it to your temple and pull the trigger then?

No? Why not?

Same answer. It's not the risk, it's the stakes.

If you believe there is even the remotest of chance Y2K could turn out bad you better start looking at the stakes.

-- pizzaman (cjwarner@yahoo.com), October 30, 1999.

From: Y2K, ` la Carte by Dancr (pic), near Monterey, California

Ask your sister if she's planning to follow the government advice to stock up for only three days. Some 80% of people state that they will stock up in late December. Everyone should be made aware that it will not be possible for many people to get their extra three days worth in that situation. There are certain things that people tend to buy almost every time they go to the store. If they're shopping with the Red Cross advice in mind, they may tend to buy a few extra of each thing they normally buy. If they normally shop for a couple weeks at a time, they may easily end up buying a month of stock on that particular trip. It won't take many of those people to empty the shelves. Thus, at a minimum, one should shop for whatever disruption the actual technical problems themselves may bring, plus a good margin of safety in case stores have spotty inventory during the December.

we lived for thousands of years without computers World population has doubled during the past 30 years since computers arrived on the scene. Most people don't own even enough land to plant an herb garden, let alone the 400sf per person that would be needed to feed an average vegetarian if one really knew what they were doing. They also don't have the seeds, implements, animals, fencing, storage facilities or the know-how. Learning how to eek out a subsistence living under local conditions requires one to model parents and neighbors who know what the heck they're doing.

Many entire regions that are currently heavily populated are completely unsuited to agriculture. Even places that are currently highly agricultural may not work out in case of oil shortages. If there is no surface water or dependable rain, there may not be any water for crop irrigation in places that depend upon electricity or fuel to run wells.

Why prep if the .gov will confiscate everything anyway They won't take it if they can't find it! Find several hiding places.

Why don't you go to the good-news (polly) sites? Go to the sites that hold out the most promise to provide you the information that you seek. If you're hoping to make up your mind about the likelihood of certain potential problems, visit sites with alternate views to the ones that you currently hold. If you are seeking information about how to do something, seek out the sites that contain information about that.

I'm not going to worry about anything I can't do anything about. The lone individual will likely not have a great effect upon the grand scheme of how things unfold in the near future. One can, however, cushion oneself and the ones they love against a wide variety of problems.

How do you know that the crap you are reading is true? Here's the thing hardly anybody claims that there will definitely be any certain specific problem. What most analysts say is that nobody knows what will happen. They only claim that there is a possibility of problems. In that case it's not really even possible to be wrong.

Why don't you believe what the 'mainstream media' is reporting? The mainstream media are not reporting the major government studies which are quite eye opening.

Why would our government lie to us about this? Politicians cater to those forces in society which are most able to assist in holding on to power. Therefore, banks, utilities, and durable goods manufacturers have more pull than does Joe Schmoe.

Isn't it good to not alarm the people of the US about something that might not happen? A trusted leader might be able to guide the people in making prudent preparations without hurting each other. Unfortunately, the current administration has squandered their trust, to the point where most people will only believe them if they are saying what people want to hear.

Meanwhile, responsible citizens can actually help the overall preparedness by stocking up early and often. Each purchase helps manufacturers to ramp up and actually pulls more goods through the channels of distribution right behind the things that are bought. Those who prepare early can slack off during times when store inventory is getting tight. This would be a stressful time to be in the stores anyway.

Then, during the first weeks of the new millennium, when others may stop buying because they've stocked up, the responsible citizen can again help the economy by purchasing consumer goods at that time. The prices might be pretty good, and we wouldn't necessarily be out of the woods. Recall that after the 1929 stock market crash, it was another few years before people started hurting, and the worst of the depression wasn't until 1938, almost a decade later!

-- Dancr (addy.available@my.webpage), October 30, 1999.

You mean someone still ACTUALLY believes what the government tells them? As in Bill (Rapier wit) Klinton!! To get serious, "sis", the bottom line is that no one really knows how bad it's going to get, but something will happen. I've read extensively. Not just on boards. I don't want anything to happen, but isn't it dumb not to be a little prepared? Get some canned goods, dried fruit, 10 days worth of water, water sterilization tablets for what else may come, a gun, and learn how to use it before the lights go out.

-- D.J. Phillips (gardengal@land.com), October 30, 1999.

“Why prep if the .gov will confiscate everything anyway under Martial Law?”

That's a pretty big 'what if'. And while I doubt that there is going  to be confiscation of people's preps, 14 days of preps, for example, is nothing .mil is going to need or want in that timeframe.

You might send her my rational explanation for making Y2K preparations.

Sincerely,
Stan Faryna

Can't get a good price on something? Click here and check out the cooperative preps thread.

Got 14 days of preps? If not, get started now. Click here.

Click here and check out the TB2000 preparation forum.

-- Stan Faryna (faryna@groupmail.com), October 30, 1999.

Her point about living for so long without computers is a rational one, however, have her look at how our grandparents and great- grandparents lived without them. The houses back then had large pantries and everyone made sure they were stocked as winter came on. Firewood or coal was obtained for heat prior to the winter. A large part of their life, and effort, went into being prepared for times of shortage and potential hardships. All we have done over the past 30- 50 years is replace our pantry with the local grocery store and the pile of fire wood with the utility company. Use her own argument and try to get her to see only these 2 differences between then and now...

-- BH (silentvoice@pobox.com), October 30, 1999.

Confiscate preps? I don't think the govt. agents would want to be caught in a potential neighborhood crossfire killing zone for some beans and rice.

-- Porky (Porky@in.cellblockD), October 30, 1999.

I am the sister of UnclB0B, I do not mud wrestle, i do not have a daughter and I don't have my head in the sand. I do not believe the government. I am preparing as much as I can.

-- Robin J. Maguire (RMaguire@aol.com), October 30, 1999.

Uncle Bob: You're just going to have to use humor. Don't try to convince anymore. I'm going to my in-laws on Dec 26 with 50 gals of water and some canned foods, candles, etc. (you know the list). I'm putting it down the cellar, out of their way, and then if they need it, it's there. That's all I can do.

-- mar (derigueur2@aol.com), October 30, 1999.

Sorry--

I feel like a chump... correct link for my "please take time to prepare" site is...

http://rampages.onramp.net/~bcheek/y2k/What-You-Should.htm

Sorry for the mistake--I note that a lot of people have gotten lost trying to find it, and thanks for reading.

-- William in Dallas (bcheek@onramp.net), October 31, 1999.

Although I strongly disagree with the premise of your flyer, i.e. that the likelyhood of problems is slight and that a small amount of preparation is adequate, here is your link:

From: Y2K, ` la Carte by Dancr (pic), near Monterey, California

The Y2K Bug--And What it Should Mean to You

-- Dancr (addy.available@my.webpage), November 01, 1999.

I am the sister of UnclB0B, I do not mud wrestle, i do not have a daughter and I don't have my head in the sand. I do not believe the government. I am preparing as much as I can.

Great. Problem solved.

-- (done@all.done), November 01, 1999.