This WILL end badly, for many it will end permanently.

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

As many of you know, my gig is crude oil. I'm a crude analyst. However I also watch all of the global financial markets as part of that undertaking. I'm currently attacking the topic of how much crude oil and nat gas will be disrupted this new years and forward. The task is so overwhelming that I decided to take it a step at a time and begin at the bottom, Russia. I have to tell you that my research indicates a case for severe FUBAR for Russia this winter. It's not going to go well and people will die as a result. That's right, people will die from the irresponsible behavior and greed that has siphoned money away from areas that were in desparate trouble to start with. What's more, this economic cacophony will be heard throughout eastern Europe drowning out the mewing of the bubble herd as they head for the slaughterhouse.

The path our own administration has taken is typical for a child of an alcoholic, denial. Unfortunately, although one may be able to function daily, eventually one's body rots from the inside and one dies. It is morally reprehensible and incredibly irresponsible.

Wall Street is simply taking advantage of the situation as any good trader would. Party on Garth! This party will end one day soon and there will be a lot of people scratching their heads wondering why these fucksticks didn't tell them the Grim Reaper was gonna be knocking on their door soon. Sorry, but today's melt up was tough to watch as I know it is baseless and founded on a bed of made up non-inflationary numbers.

In case you don't read Bill Fleckenstein's comments, you should. Go to www.siliconinvestor.com and click on the market wrap...

For educational and research purps:

Bubble blowup... Lastly, here's a comment on the bubble boys and today's action, from a friend of mine who wants to remain anonymous: "The punters of the universe are relying on central banks to be so afraid of being accused of not having done enough to prevent a Y2K financial problem....They will blow up global bubbles up through at least year-end. Free money. Everybody sees free money. The bull market in stocks... and bull market in the Fed will end simultaneously. They have only each other to thank for their mutual demise."

I think that's true. We'll just have to see how long this goes. (snip)

Things are percolating quite nicely globally. Leper lists are already in action including S. Africa, Brazil, Columbia etc. I read the other day that Poland money market spreads at year end are up 1100%, also that a Canadian Bank is advising customers to put thier requests in for money by Dec 8 or they may only get travellers checks instead of cash. The Japanese are now accepting treasuries as collateral for Y2K loans! That's a rich one. And in the US you can basically borrow anything you want with no collateral as long as it will preserve our blessed bubble.

It's to much people. The danger is real. I've seen the beast and it's comming your way. In some places around the globe people are gonna freeze to death. Oil's key infrastructure and it's gonna be quite fubar. Get going on your preps. Today.

-- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), October 28, 1999

Answers

It never ceases to amaze me how one man can claim to know (accurately) what is going on in 150+ countries, simoultaneously.

-- (_@_._), October 28, 1999.

You are not too shy to use the F word; so why not just go ahead and tell us--what does FUBAR mean? Once the bubble bursts, what do you think--inflation or deflation?

-- (sickNtired@of.it), October 28, 1999.

today's market bubble was a full blown exercise of the greater fool theory. Tulip bulbs, anyone?

Gordon, thanks for the oil and financial posts you have made.

-- Nancy (wellsnl@hotmail.com), October 28, 1999.


Nah....Kosky says everything will blow over in three days...and we pollies believe everything the government tells us....independent thinking is DANGEROUS and we'd rather have a government bureaucrat do our thinking for us. Much less demanding that way.

-- Dr. PollyDork (DrPollyDork@PollyIdiot.com), October 28, 1999.

''FUBAR'', an expression used daily in the military ranks. Fucked Up Beyond Any Repair.

-- T (NT@BOOM.com), October 28, 1999.


OK, a modern version of SNAFU. It works.

-- (poohbear@FUBAR.ok), October 28, 1999.

Gecko,

Where ya been??? Was having thoughts about oil being the Back breaker. Why?

Worked for a jobber for several years back in eighties. Most people do not understand something about OIL under normal conditions.

Oil companies are ever vigilant for the slightest Storm at Lake charles or small fire at a cracking plant or anything they can USE to JACK prices---sometimes 10cents a gallon on the spot market in ONE day.

Y2K is the MOTHER of all Windfalls for the OIL companies. I hope the good people on this forum understand the instant collusion that is and will continue just from the Fear of Y2K.

Now add to that the report to congress last week that basically NO ports are compliant ANYWHERE and then there are the Ships,tankers,pipelines.

I mean these guys could hold the U.S. hostage with fictitious problems--much less any real failures.

Gordo--just happens to be giving you all a very heartfelt warning. He is not kidding!!!!! You can count on Crude being higher than we have ever seen it in our life time. Count on it!!

If you were the Oil companies and you had been selling Oil dirt cheap for years, what would you do under these conditions??

-- David Butts (dciinc@aol.com), October 28, 1999.


Gordon, I always appreciate your insider's analysis. Thanks. I've learned to scan the forum each day by contributor and yours is one of the ones I look for. We are forewarned and forearmed.

Got stored fuel?

-- JER (I_get_it@this.time), October 28, 1999.


Gordon, Not that I disagree with your post at all, but a question:

IF the OPEC Oil goes up dramatically (which I agree is highly probable especially given the launch of the gold backed Moslem Dinar and alleged Arab preference for trading oil for gold rather than weakening dollars), what would it take to reopen the cemented in wells in the US Gulf of Mexico?

Is it not true that most of the US wells were idled a few years ago when crude oil prices dropped? Would not this oil supply come into play by mid-2000 if the Middle East either has a Y2K catastrophe or oil prices go up? Wouldn't this at least improve the availability of crude and moderate price increases?

Do you have current figures on global oil reserves by country? by field to separate Alaska from the Gulf of Mexico? by current production by field?

Thanks in advance.

-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), October 28, 1999.


If someone wanted to roll the dice that the markets won't totally collapse, what stocks would you recommend based on the above scenario taking place?

-- DGBennett (bennett1@peachnet.net), October 28, 1999.


I was in Army. I was told fubar ment fucked up beyond all recognition. Which is it?

-- @@@@ (y2kfixer@broke.now), October 28, 1999.

FUBARfucked up beyond all recognition

Me too, but then the powers that be are changing language every day....so we have no solid ground to stand on. FUBAR........

-- Donna (moment@pacbell.net), October 28, 1999.


FUBAR is a German word, right?

-- FUBAR (Saving@privateryan.com), October 28, 1999.

"...Today's melt up was tough to watch as I know it is...founded on a bed of made up non-inflationary numbers."

I've been suspecting for quite awhile that the DJIA is soaring upwards partly on the basis of made up numbers. But darned if I can prove it.

I just wanted to drop you a line to let you know I always click on your posts and carefully study what you have to say. And even though the subject matter is usually pretty grim, I usually get a chuckle out of your blunt way of expressing yourself. Lately I need all the chuckles I can get!

Stick to the oil business. We're never going to see you as one of the talking heads on those stock market shows that are sponsored by the discount brokerages.

-- Not Whistlin' Dixie (not_whistlin_dixie@yahoo.com), October 28, 1999.


"Is it not true that most of the US wells were idled a few years ago when crude oil prices dropped? Would not this oil supply come into play by mid-2000 if the Middle East either has a Y2K catastrophe or oil prices go up? Wouldn't this at least improve the availability of crude and moderate price increases?"

A lot of those "idled" wells would be very costly to bring back on line-if one could start them flowing again at all. And would the infrastructure be available to do this for quite some time-if ever? Don't forget to think systemic.

JJ

-- Jeremiah Jetson (laterthan@uthink.y2k), October 28, 1999.



@@@@ that's how I always used FUBAR. Gordon, your in the top ten here on this forum who is informative and can articulate the financial scenario well. Thank you.

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), October 28, 1999.

-- Not Whistlin' Dixie, part of those "made up numbers" are the corporations selected for inclusion in the Dow. Just a couple of days ago four companies (which were more representative of the broader declining market)were dropped and four others (representative of the relatively few better performing stocks) were substituted. For years the companies that made up the Dow were always the same; not so recently.

Another part of the made up numbers is the fantastic increase in made up money. Since "inflation is low" according to the Fed, all that increase in M-2 has to go someplace. Much of it has gone into the market driving up the DJIA beyond reason. The rest goes overseas as we force the rest of the world to accept US paper $ for their goods.

"Made up numbers" indeed! The whole money system is made up, and is often used to distract attention from what may really be going on somewhere else.

Joe

-- Joe (paraflyr@cybernet1.com), October 29, 1999.


FUBAR= Fucked up beyond all repair.

SNAFU - Situation Normal; all fucked up.

-- RJ (LtPita@aol.com), October 29, 1999.


STFU

-- _ (_@_._), October 29, 1999.

As Gordo or someone will attest, "reopening" "mothballed" wells is much harder than simply drilling one right next to the one you want to open, unless it was a "drift" well, in which case you get to try to dig out all that concrete and mud and.......

Chuck

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), October 29, 1999.


There are no idled wells, unless its Ma Puckett's 1950s stripper well in the lower 40 churning out a barrel a day. The name of the game is to produce out the wazoo as quickly and fully as humanly possible to maximize cash flow and present value, no matter the price. Trust me on this one, the chokes are all wide open right now.

-- Pedal to the Metal (Gulf of Mexico@deepwater.maxxed out), October 29, 1999.

"--(@..." You said: "It never ceases to amaze me how much one man can claim to know" about 150 countries at the same time.

Kosky seems to "know." Do you ever question that? Just wondering.

-- mar (derigueur2@aol.com), October 29, 1999.


Sure you could open up the old wells and get them running again...in three to six months under normal conditions.

Is that soon enough?

-- nothere nothere (notherethere@hotmail.com), October 29, 1999.


Gordon,

I grew up in an oil patch family that likely paralleles the experience of a lot of Oil people you know -- west Texas, New Mexico, West Texas, Houston. For the past two years I have had a creepy feeling that oil will be the big issue of next year, regardless of whatever else happens. I am not prepared for the coming increase in the price of oil because preparing for that is something on a gargantuan scale that is just really difficult to prepare for.

Speaking of the stock market, it seems that a lot of things are getting wierd lately. Right now I actually feel bad when the stock market goes up; it is like an ominous sign that something just isn't right. A lot of things are going up and down right now--that's the problem. The up and down motion and the too-hard-to-beleive things that are happening in the "developing world" make me really sober.

I see the hand of God coming down on our society. Thanks for your advice on preparing; maybe I will be a little prepared. Mostly I am sitting back to watch. Flexibility is the need of the hour. I am hoping that my flexibility will save me. Let's keep in touch.

-- Rick (rick7@postmark.net), October 29, 1999.


The question is, is Y2k gonna change the acronym to mean F*&^$%# Up Beyond All Remediation?

-- LauraA (Laadedah@aol.com), October 29, 1999.

Moderation questions? read the FAQ