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My comments in parenthesis
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Statement for the Record
Senate Special Committee on the Year 2000
Technology Problem
Foreign Preparedness for Y2K
Lawrence K. Gershwin
National Intelligence Officer
for Science and Technology
13 October 1999
Mr. Chairman and members of the Committee, I am pleased to have the opportunity to provide the Committee with the Intelligence Community's latest assessment of the status of foreign preparedness for Y2K. We recently published a comprehensive, classified National Intelligence Estimate on foreign Y2K efforts, and we are continuing to focus on this evolving issue to ensure that policy makers are as prepared as possible for the potential consequences for the US and our allies of international Y2K failures. This assessment is essentially a
"snapshot" of the current state of international preparedness for Y2K.
( If this is a snapshot, then I wonder what kind of shutter speed he is using, cuz the picture he turned out is fuzzy at best)
As countries continue their remediation, testing, and contingency planning activities, and as we get more information, some of our observations will change.
Efforts to address potential problems vary widely both among and within individual countries. For example, the United Kingdom has a highly successful government awareness campaign which has spurred industry, commerce and government agencies to take steps to correct Y2K problems.
( Meaningless drivel. An awareness' program'. Awarenss programs do NOT remediate anything at all. We have a high awareness in the US. And over 405 of small business has done NOTHING AT ALL. Awareness alone, is meaningless. And of course, that is all he has to talk about. As well, taking steps is not 'successful remediation, either.)
At the other end of the spectrum, when Indonesia's
national electricity board was recently asked by an Indonesian
newspaper about its Y2K preparedness, they replied that they can observe what happens at midnight 1999 in Western Samoa, New Zealand and Australia, and still have six hours to make plans.
( Here is the FOURTH most populous nation on earth and they can forget electricity, period. I stated this WELL over a year ago, when I saw that Indonesia had not even yet BEGUN an electric Utility remediation. Both China AND indonesia had not even completed an assessment as of October 1998. Anyone could have seen it. But, NOW they are saying it.)
The quality of corrective work varies greatly among countries and sectors and, in some cases, remediation work introduces new flaws that go undetected due to limited or faulty testing. Moreover, time for effective corrective action is running out.
( Ran out a long long time ago. These imbeciles never give up the false hope that there is 'still time'.)
Even if remediation work
has taken place, there may be insufficient time left for testing, identifying problems that emerge, and follow-up remediation. Industry experts believe, in many cases, effective testing can take two to three times as long as remediation.
(Understatement of the year. Testing is the single most important , most costly, and time consuming element of the remdiation process. Thye vast and overwhelming majority of global systems have NOT even finished being remediated YET ALONE tested.)
The availability of funding and
technical expertise in foreign countries to analyze vulnerabilities and carry out remediation and testing will continue to be a major impediment.
( This guy has a penchant for stating the obvious and doing it with gross understatement. This is like saying that Tsunamis can cause great moisture related damages if they have a lot of water in them)
The public and private sectors will increasingly focus on
contingency planning for coping with the impact of Y2K failures after 1 January and prioritizing repairs.
( Of course they will. They have failed to remediate properly. The only thing left to them is disaster plans.)
Where effective prevention action has been taken in advance of 1 January, disruptions will likely be random, temporary, and of
localized impact.
( I'm going to puke. What a sickening tautology.
"Where remdiation has been completed and testing done, there will be no problems."
" Where there is no combustible materials, heat nor oxygen, there will be no fire.')
In the absence of effective remediation and
contingency plans, Y2K-related problems could cause widespread,
possibly prolonged disruptions in vital services that could have serious humanitarian and economic consequences.
( PUKE!
"Where there IS combustible materials, oxygen and heat, there may be fire.")
Y2K failures will occur before and as the date rollover approaches, peaking on 1 January and persisting well beyond that. In some
countries, such as Russia, it will likely take a significant amount of time to overcome Y2K failures.
(This is testimony on a congressional level? Geez, it is like he is speaking to junior high kids.
" The fire will start real small and then get bigger and then it burns out. But if there are a lot of oily rags, the fire will get hotter.")
Russia, Ukraine, China and Indonesia are among the countries most likely to experience significant Y2K-related failures.
(Russia...gone. China, most populous nation on earth. Indonesia, fourth most populous nation on earth. Indonesia, no electricity, already in perilous economic shape. Oh, by the way, they just started printing notes denominated as 100,000 rupiah Notes. first time ever. Get it yet?)
Countries in
Western Europe are generally better prepared, although we see the chance of some significant failures in countries such as Italy.
( Chances? What kind of bullcrap minimization is that? italy has barely started by all accounts. )
Major
economic powers such as Germany and Japan are making great strides in Y2K remediation, but their late start and the magnitude of the effort suggest that even these countries are at risk of some failures.
(Germany is woefully behind. Japan is way behind as well. Talking about their 'great strides' is LUDICROUS. They always talk about that which has NOTHING to do with where they actually are but only talk about progress towards some place.)
Canada, the UK, Australia, Singapore, and Hong Kong are very well prepared and have a lower chance of experiencing any significant Y2K failures.
Regional Overview
The Americas. The level of Y2K preparedness varies widely among
foreign countries in the Americas and even among sectors within
individual countries; Canada is working closely with the United States on sectors where national interests are highly integrated such as electrical power-emerges as the best prepared.
Most national governments in Latin America have established
commissions to coordinate preparations within the public sector and to increase general awareness, but efforts in many cases are late,
underfunded, and weakly enforced.
( Establishing commissions remediates NOTHING. Latin America is 100% toast.)
Some disruptions of basic public
services-including utilities, telecommunications, public health, and social welfare are likely throughout the region, but we are unable to judge their potential scope or duration.
( Nonsense. You are not WILLING to draw simple straightforward conclusions.)
We consider it unlikely that
these disruptions will affect domestic stability or US interests in this region.
( BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH!
BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH!
I think I'm going to vomit. These hearings are a complete FARCE. What kind of damnable idiot could say that mmost of them are way late, underfunded and unenforced and in the same breath say that they will achieve enough coompliance not to cause domestic economic interference.? This guy is either an asshole or a liar. There is no other conclusion.)
Europe. European countries, with the exception of the United Kingdom, got a late start in assessing, repairing, and planning for
contingencies related to the Y2K problem. Nearly all European
governments have national Y2K programs in place, and most are working very hard to minimize the significance of Y2K-related problems.
However, we are concerned that some have not allotted adequate
resources to remediation and testing. Remediation efforts are the most advanced in the finance and telecommunications sectors and most
countries are confident major disruptions in these sectors will be avoided. Small- and medium-sized enterprises are the least prepared.
The highly integrated nature of European infrastructure and economic flows increases the risk that individual countries, even the
better-prepared ones, will import Y2K problems from lesser-prepared neighbors.
( And the HIGH degree of economic dependence that the US has on global trade will NOT interfere with us. Ohhhhhhh. I get it. The dependencies willl only affect THEM. OVER THER. You know. THOSE GUYS. NOT US. THEM'uns. Asshole)
Russia and Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine are particularly vulnerable to Y2K failures. They got a late start in remediation and lack sufficient resources to identify and correct problems -- virtually guaranteeing that the countries will suffer economic and social consequences for some time. Both countries have old capital stock, much of which has not been upgraded since the Soviet era. They are further impeded because of their perception that a limited computer dependence largely "protects" them. Areas of greatest risk are strategic warning and command and control, nuclear power plants, the gas industry, and the electric power grid.
( And THAT is the EXTENT of what he has to say? PULEEEEEEEASE!! He practically GLOSSED over Russia. Russia is GONE. But, quick, just one quick paragraph throwing in the Ukraine and hope they don't want to dwell on Russia.
Don't make any conclusions about what will happen there. Tell them that the European community wil have troubles but don't go too deeply in what will happen with Russia. God Forbid.)
Middle East & North Africa. Most countries in the Middle East and North Africa recognize Y2K as a computer hardware and software
problem, but started later in dealing with the potential problems with embedded chips and interconnected systems.
( WOW! They 'recognize' it! That must mean they are done.)
The oil companies, banking
sector, and large multinational companies are best informed and are conducting remediation and testing.
( So what. I am conducting a drainage of the Pacific Ocean by the teaspoon ful, I am working VERY heard and I am dedicated and am motivated to do so.)
Government institutions, small
businesses, the health sector, and some public utilities lag because of funding shortfalls, a late start in addressing the problem and, in some cases, a misunderstanding of the nature and scope of Y2K
vulnerabilities.
( Oh, but you said they 'recognize' it is a problem. But that means that they only know how to 'SAY' y2k. Well, anyway, I am glad they 'recognize that it is a problem. When will they recognize that they can't eat oily sand?)
Y2K-related failures will occur, especially in public utilities, although we cannot yet judge their scope or duration. Urban areas will be most affected.
( What CAN this guy judge? Could he judge a brick hitting him in the head? I don't think so.
"It has been reported that a hardened, fired, earthen-ware product has struck my cranium. Although there is 'apparent' sanguination, and cerebro-spinal fluid 'apparently' running down my neck and my eyes have 'apparently' glazed over, and my breathing is rapid short and thready, I can draw no conclusions at this time about how i might be affected. Wouldn't be prudent.")
Africa. With the exception of South Africa, other countries in
sub-Saharan Africa were late in recognizing the Y2K problem but are developing preparations to deal with it.
(Oooooh goody! 'ARE developing'. 65 days left and they "ARE" developing a strategy. Clue: Buy Lime. Lottsa lime. Shovels would be good too. oh yeah, and Big black plastic garbage bags, you know, those six foot long 'leaf type bags'. Call Lowe's they got 'em on sale. .)
Because many Africans --
especially in rural areas -- expect little from government,
interruptions in services are unlikely to spark unrest.
(Yeah. Little to spark unrest in Africa. Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Nigeria, Sierra Leone. Jonas Savimbi. Hutus slaughtering Tutsi's. What was that president charged with being a homosexual? No, Not Clinton, that was Sodomy. But, yes, I do understand why you would think he acts little diferent that a sub-Saharan potentate. No, Africa is SAFE. Thank goodness.)
Asia-Pacific. Preparations for dealing with Y2K problems across the Asia-Pacific region vary greatly. The Asian countries that rely
heavily on advanced technology for power generation, communications, and transportation have had comprehensive Y2K programs under way for some time. Most countries with moderate reliance on computers are aware of potential Y2K problems and have begun assessment and
remediation efforts.
( 'Have begun'. 65 days to go. Most. Well, some. Ok, One.)
The sectors with the most advanced programs for dealing with Y2K are banking and finance, civil aviation, and telecommunications. The sectors least prepared, as a general rule, are railroads, ports, medical services, and, small- and medium-sized enterprises.
Impact on US of Y2K Failures
Y2K-related disruptions and failures can affect US interests in three ways:
-- They may have a direct impact.
(May? I'll have a little of what he's smoking.)
Some foreign infrastructures and
vital sectors are directly linked to those in the United States either physically or through computer networks.
-- They may have an indirect impact.
( May? They 'may' have a 'direc't impact. They 'may' have an 'indirec't impact. Gotta love this guy. Stalwart that he is. uhh, what other kinds of impact are there? I think that using that categorization , direct and indirect is all there is. But, I am glad he narrowed it down. Some guys would not have had the balls to say there "may' be a direct impact and then, have the temerity to stand up there, in full view, and also say that there might be an 'indirect ' impact TOO. The STONES on that guy! Granite cries out to be carved into this guy's likeness.)
The United States depends on the
uninterrupted flow of many raw materials and finished goods for its economic security and national defense.
( Let's see, you have already as well as stated that abput 90% of the world is kne-walking tight. And you say that we are DEPENDENT on this global trade. ok, I am waiting to hear this astonishing revelation. Go for it!)
In addition, diplomatic and
military operations depend upon host-nation infrastructure support, including telecommunications and electric power.
-- They may have broad national security implications.
( "May" have implications. Everything involving the US only "MAY" have implications. Only "MAY". I think that this guy "May" be an asshole.Now you wanna bet that when he get to THOSE GUYS. OVERT HERE. he will NOT use the word 'MAY" ONCE. )
Foreign
Y2K-related crises have the potential to involve US military and civilian components in humanitarian relief, environmental disaster recovery, or evacuations.
The direct impact on the United States of Y2K-related disruptions and failures in foreign infrastructures will be limited.
( I agree. Will be limited to cutting off half our oil. Will be limited to severing the majority of our foriegn trade. Will be limited to cutailing overseas flights. Will be limited to "X" amount of people dying. Sure am glad it will be limited.)
There are several
reasons for this. First of all, Canada, the country to whose
infrastructure we are most tightly linked, is well advanced in Y2K remediation and unlikely to export significant problems to the United States.
( We will be safe because CANADA is well advanced. That is the first time that I have ever heard that CANADA will save the USA.)
Second, the global payments system is unlikely to experience
significant failures, because most of the developed countries appear well prepared in the banking and finance sector.
( Bald faced, categorical, intentional LIE. Laughable at that. 'MOST' developed countries. Oh, neve rmind the undeveloped countries banking systems when they crash. we can just ignore them. tral la la. Screw Zimbabwe. tra la la. The hell with Sri Lank. tra la la, there goes Bolivia. Oops there goes Russia. Nope, no problems will be felt here at'all.)
Financial
institutions in most emerging markets, however, as well as those in less developed countries, may experience failures because they started the remediation process later and because they are experiencing
scarcities of resources and technical expertise.
Even well-prepared institutions, however, will still be impacted if disruptions occur in domestic infrastructures -- especially electric power and telecommunications. They are also exposed to Y2K problems in the information systems of their customers, vendors, and smaller banks to whom they are linked.
Third, we are highly confident that Y2K failures will not lead to the inadvertent or unauthorized launch of a ballistic missile by any country. If Y2K failures do occur, we are concerned about the
potential for Russia to misinterpret early warning data -- especially if we were in a period of increased tensions brought on by an
international political crisis. Russia and the United States have agreed to establish the Center for Year 2000 Strategic Stability at Peterson Air Force Base, Colorado. The Center will provide a venue for sharing information on missile and space launches collected by US sensors across the year 2000 date change in order to prevent any misunderstandings resulting from Russian early warning failures.
Finally, the United States is unlikely to experience a significant disruption in oil deliveries because our key suppliers appear to be Y2K ready.
( 'appear'. we are 'unlikely to what? because they 'appear'? it's rock solid investigation like this that makes it 'appear' we willbe alright. And when the shit hits the fan, food will 'appear' on your plate. Let them eat 'appearances'.)
Major multinational firms have been in the forefront of
remediation and testing efforts, and operators of oil terminals and tankers have been similarly active in correcting Y2K vulnerabilities.
( That's what scares me most. That their remediation efforts are 'similar'.)
While we probably will not be directly impacted by foreign Y2K
failures,
( 'probably will not'. )
breakdowns in foreign infrastructure could impact US
interests overseas:
( 'could')
our official and military presence overseas, US
businesses, and the welfare of countries important to us. Disruptions and failures in telecommunications, electricity generation and
transmission, and transportation pose the greatest threat because of their fundamental importance to all other critical services.
Sector Overview
Telecommunications. Although a high priority for most countries, efforts to remediate Y2K problems in the telecommunications sector in many countries, particularly developing countries, have been hampered by inadequate funding, a shortage of skilled personnel, a late start, and the need for lengthy remediation and testing. We estimate that only a few countries are on target in remediating and testing their telecommunications systems. Networks elsewhere are likely to
experience problems ranging from minor inconveniences to serious disruptions. Experts are concerned that minor failures could cascade, causing a network to become degraded over time.
The interconnections among many time-sensitive systems make it more likely that a Y2K problem in one system will cause problems in a system with which it is connected. Problems in telecommunications would also affect other sectors, such as power and national defense.
Failure to complete Y2K remediation is likely to result in outages that could affect the United States and foreign countries in
significant ways.
( Hold on there. You just went fro MAY have indirect impact and MAY have direct impact all the way to IS LIKELY TO. Big jump there, fella. It is OBVIOUS that most of them will not complete or anywhere's NEAR complete remdiation.)
They could cost telecommunications operators
considerable money in lost revenue; affect the operations of
government, the financial sector, the military, industry, and the energy sector; and exacerbate regional tensions. Communications
disruptions will damage US businesses and official activities that depend on host-government support.
Many well known companies that follow Y2K preparations list countries such as Russia, China, and Italy as likely to have telecommunications problems and we have no reason to disagree with these assessments. Some countries -- such as Russia -- are likely to be so poorly
prepared that widespread telecommunications failures will likely occur.
( But we MAY experience indirect impacts from that. You now, like nasty e-mails from cold starving Ruskies. That's all though. )
Electric Power. Localized blackouts lasting possibly up to a week and regional brownouts of much shorter duration are likely to occur in Russia; however, the city of Moscow is unlikely to experience serious disruptions. In western Europe, some countries are likely to
experience localized blackouts; however, a cascading failure
throughout the region is highly unlikely.
Each of the different elements of the electric power sector --
generation facilities, transmission and distribution networks,
telecommunications, protection systems, and consumers -- forms a complex interrelationship that could cause a systemwide failure even if there were significant failures in only one element. Some
electrical power grids in Europe and Asia -- where Y2K redemption has been inconsistent at the national and local levels -- are likely to experience outages.
( Like everywhere but lower DooDooKaKaStan.)
I'm not even going to bother wasting my time with the rest of this pernicious claptrap. read it for yourselves. It is pure unadulterated bullshit.
--
Paul Milne
"If you live within 5 miles of a 7-11, you're toast"
Foreign Nuclear Power Plants. Y2K failures affecting nuclear power
plants fall into two categories: problems that occur outside the
nuclear plant (for example, voltage and frequency fluctuations or the
collapse of the electricity grid) or, less likely, problems that occur
inside the nuclear plant that affect generation capability. Of these
two, the first is by far the more serious because nuclear plants
depend on off-site electricity to operate. Loss of off-site power or
large fluctuations of voltage frequency on the grid would lead to an
automatic shutdown. In the event that a prolonged outage occurs, this
would require, among other things, that backup systems supply power to
pump coolant through the reactor core for about a week until the
reactor is below fuel melting temperatures. Therefore, Y2K problems
impacting generation capability in conventional plants can affect
nuclear plants by causing frequency or voltage fluctuations leading to
a possible collapse of the electrical grid. Similarly, Y2K problems
within equipment on the grid itself might cause problems leading to
the disconnection and shutdown of nuclear power plants.
We judge that those Y2K problems occurring within nuclear power plants
probably will pose no direct safety problem because almost all plants
have analog, electro-mechanical safety systems that will shut down the
reactors if anomalies are detected. Y2K problems in digital
non-safety-related systems within the nuclear plants, if they occur,
would most likely lead to a reduction in generation capacity or
shutdowns.
These Y2K-initiated shutdowns presumably could be conducted in a safe
manner, but digital systems experiencing Y2K problems could produce
false data that would then be displayed to operators, increasing the
chance for operator error and, potentially, accidents.
Internally-generated Y2K problems that caused a shutdown could also
contribute to instability of the electricity grid by removing
generation capacity from the grid. Therefore, Y2K problems at one
nuclear power plant could contribute to problems at surrounding power
plants.
Soviet-Designed Reactors. We are most concerned about the safety of
Soviet-designed nuclear plants, including Chernobyl-type reactors in
Russia and Ukraine, due both to inherent design problems of these
plants -- for example, lack of total containment systems -- and to the
lack of detailed data on Y2K remediation plans and contingency plans.
Nonetheless, we judge the chance of a nuclear accident on the scale of
Chernobyl is extremely low.
The combined effects of possible Y2K-generated internal failures and
external power problems (loss of offsite power) increase the risk of a
nuclear incident, particularly if operators believe they can
compensate for Y2K malfunctions or for power supply reductions in the
grid by overriding plant safety systems. Similar operator actions led
to the accident at Chernobyl.
At this late date, remediating and testing all Soviet-designed nuclear
power plant systems before yearend is not feasible, particularly given
the age of the computer systems and the fact that many of the original
manufacturers have gone out of business. However, countries possessing
these systems have made significant efforts to identify their Y2K-
related problems and are working hard to minimize the effects.
Moreover, significant international attention and assistance has been
beneficial.
The chance of a nuclear incident in Russia, Ukraine, or another state
with Soviet-designed reactors during the Y2K rollover is low. It is,
however, higher than normal because of the likelihood that the power
grid could experience failures, leading to a reliance on emergency
power supplies of questionable reliability, because of the possibility
that auxiliary generators are inoperable due to maintenance problems
or a lack of sufficient fuel, and the potential for erroneous data
leading to operator error. In the worst case, this could cause a
meltdown and in some cases, an accompanying release of radioactive
fission gases causing localized contamination.
Gazprom Gas Deliveries. The dependence of Russian and European markets
on gas deliveries from Russia's Gazprom is of particular concern. We
know that several countries in Europe have extensive facilities to
store natural gas and, in some cases, are preparing to increase their
stored reserves in anticipation of possible disruptions in gas
supplies at yearend. We cannot, however, estimate the sufficiency of
these reserves should Gazprom deliveries be reduced due to Y2K
failures. This would depend, in part, on the successful opera
-- a (a@a.a), October 28, 1999
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