WHERE IS THE CRASH? Dow up 200 with good economic numbers.

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

I'd like to know where the crash is? October is over and nuttin...I'm tellin you nuttin. The DOW has taken off like a rocket today.

Fly me to the moon and let me swing among the stars.

-- (Where'sthe@beef.com), October 28, 1999

Answers

...and tomorrow is October 29...bring back any memories?

-- David John (djcon@bellsouth.net), October 28, 1999.

Well neener neener to you too.I love these people for whom y2k is about being right.

-- zoobie (ZOOBIEZOOB@YAHOO.COM), October 28, 1999.

Central banks and liquidity for Y2k. Will markets stay calm and is there risk from inflation?

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001edT

-- John Q. Doe (johnqd@aol.not), October 28, 1999.


Ummm, Where'sThe

You do know that they changed the stocks in the DOW on Tuesday, throwing out the Losers and putting in Ringers like Microsoft and other Tech Stock's n such from NASDAQ to prop it up awhile longer don't you??

-- Slammer (BillSlammer@yahoo.com), October 28, 1999.


I got your beef right HERE!!

-- Porky (Porky@in.cellblockD), October 28, 1999.


The changes to the Dow don't take effect until Nov. 1st. BTW, S&P 500 and Nasdaq both up as well. Explain that!

-- nobody (noone@home.now), October 28, 1999.

Slammer: Are you saying that they took out some of the companies that are loosing money and put -- in their place -- companies that *are* making money? Hmmm...do you know any of the ones they took out? How can they be allowed to skew the statistics like this??? (If I played like this,why then I could *always win!)

BTW: Isn't "Fly Me To The Moon and Let Me Land Among The Stars...???" :-)

-- mar (derigueur2@aol.com), October 28, 1999.


Um, yeah, they took out four old losers that have been around since the 20's and replaced those stocks that actually reflect what's going on in the world. Ever heard of Microsoft, Mar? Ever heard of Intel?

OK Mar, go LAND among the stars. Losers always nit pick.

-- (Where'sthe@beef.com), October 28, 1999.


No crash, in October. That much is obvious. You da man!

I suggest you borrow as much money as you can against your house and put it all in the market. It doesn't matter what the interest on the loan is. It doesn't matter what stocks you buy. You can't lose! As you invest your entire net worth in stocks, hum the tune of Happy Days Are Here Again.

That much said, I admit I am surprised that the market indices are showing as much strength as they are. The bad numbers are all related to inflation, credit saturation, savings rates, interest rates and exchange rates. Those unfavorable trends are very clearly established. Earnings have been questionable for quite a while. But it seems like fundamentals were thrown out the window some time ago in this market.

Just remember, rockets need fuel or they fall down. Credit expansion is the fuel for this rocket. Higher interest rates are coming. Ignore this at your peril.

-- Brian McLaughlin (brianm@ims.com), October 28, 1999.


Can you say market manipulation as a last resort.

-- Les (yoyo@tolate.com), October 28, 1999.


GE only original DOW component.Nothing new here.

-- rocketman (inthemarket@aprofit.com), October 28, 1999.

So the market didn't crash yet. Big deal. Don't worry. It's going to.

-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), October 28, 1999.

(from Sept.) "While the evidence of precautionary inventory hedging to date is mixed, in the financial sphere, borrowers and lenders are clearly taking steps to build liquid assets and reduce their reliance on credit markets around the end of the year. This is reflected in a noticeable rise in deposit and commercial paper rates for funding that would be outstanding over year's end. Many corporate treasurers have moved forward their debt offerings to avoid any chance of a dearth of credit availability in the fourth quarter or difficulties funding short-term liabilities. The Century Date Change Special Liquidity Facility of the discount window that was approved by the Federal Reserve Board in July and the contingency actions of the Federal Open Market Committee announced by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on September 8 should help to ensure an ample supply of liquidity and relieve funding pressures."

click for more



-- John Q. Doe (johnqd@aol.not), October 28, 1999.


Perhaps all the more alarming - if you consider the much greater "mood" swings in the markets (Dow, S&P 500, NASDAQ) lately based on at most a single announcement of .... (pick your favorite thing - IBM stock, a new index being reported, or some "single" news item.)

There was a tremedous "bubble" yesterday between 2:30 and 4:00 - after almost no change all day. This "bubble" continued this morning, then leveled off a few minutes ago. Seriously folks, is the economy different at 2:30 than at 2:15 - different enough to move the markets almost 1% in an hour - +3% in only 3 hours of trading?

Of course not. You are seeing an example of "bubble buying" - based on optimistic news, it indicates that the troubles (as reflected in the Dow/S&P/NASDAQ are likely to be even more severe as group think dominates.

Look at Newsweek this week - there is an execellent article relating to how NOBODY - NO supposed stock market expert analyst - predicted IBM's slightly lower income this past quarter. But the basic information had been available for weeks, but was ignored until the few minutes before the actual quarterly statement was issued.

Then, the public panicked. And sold IBM creating tremedous losses - even though long term growth and profits were not affected. The company was no different - but the public's perception had changed - after one "poorer than expected" quarterly statement.

---

Obviously, those who predicte an October crash based only on the history of Wall Street crashing in October - not actual public awareness of y2k and its influence on the economy - were incorrect.

Oh well. What does a 12% loss since July mean - that this is a healthy market to trust your retirement in right now? Or shouldn't one wait for the uncertainity to end?

---

The fluctuations right now are very troubling - the fact that the "public" at large reacts to single incidents like this indicates even simple bank panics are more likely, not less, as the end of the year - after Christmas - approaches.

The fact that the public (AND THE DOMINATE STOCK MARKET GURU'S) have conclusively demonstrated THEIR COMBINED inability to predict even one stock correctly - when easy research would show a poor quarter results - shows that the market will react TO economic news, not predict economic news.

Thus - even greater falls faster, and slower (overall market) recovery after the troubles are past.

For example, I expect this Christmas season to be poor for major retailers. That won't be evident until Christmas sales are almost over - mid December certainly. Otherwise, most of this quarter should be regular or higher-than-usual activity in many areas as companies "stock up" against possible supply chain failures.

Those numbers won't be reported until (like now) mid-January. Thus, there should even be an incentive to see a market rise in mid-January. The extent of "infrastrucultural" failures (by mid-Janury) will be more evident by then - if they occur here at all. So there will be mixed signals - locally publicized failures, amidst a national "everything is okay" media blitz.

Payroll and billing and receipt failures won't be evident until mid-February - but won't be reported until 1t quarter results are out in mid-April. Same time as the IRS might be working.....

So, the market impact - falling in early January, then recovering when THIS QUARTER'S results are released - if they can be released at all. Then a long drop until April apparently.

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Marietta, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), October 28, 1999.


In my oppinion, even as late as a week before Christmas the general public will still have no clue about "this Y2K thing". Because its the last Chistmas of the millinium, I think this will be one of the greatest Holiday spendings of all time. With only 2% to 3% of us feeling that this could be TEOTWAWKI, the other 97% to 98% will keep the cash registars buzzing, of course even our little TEOTWAWKI group will be spending our share in the malls and stores of America.

-- thinkIcan (thinkIcan@make.it), October 28, 1999.


I said it before, I will say it again. The "street" is not worried about Y2k, is not factoring in things regarding Y2k and doesnt believe statments about Y2k effecting corporations.

Maybe in the future something will happen so people will go "Wow, maybe we should be concerned", but for now all these swings you see are not Y2k related.

-- hamster (hamster@mycage.com), October 28, 1999.


Robert Cook said: There was a tremedous "bubble" yesterday between 2:30 and 4:00 - after almost no change all day. This "bubble" continued this morning, then leveled off a few minutes ago. Seriously folks, is the economy different at 2:30 than at 2:15 - different enough to move the markets almost 1% in an hour - +3% in only 3 hours of trading?

I reply:

I believe that some of the movers and shakers learned of the numbers that were to come out today and started the spurt early.

How's that for a conspiracy theory?

But I _am_ serious. I think this is a rigged game, and the bankers and brokers are enjoying the hell out of it.

George

-- George Valentine (georgevalentine@usa.net), October 28, 1999.


Um, Where'sThe

Don't you think it strange that they would adjust the DJIA at the exact time that everyone was thinking the market would be going down? It is true that Microsoft, MAR, Home Depot and the Telcomm they put in are perhaps more in tune, but they aren't NYSE. Also, what would you consider a Crash? What if it turns out that if we followed the original DJIA and we see it would have dropped below 10,000 to 9,000. Could that have precipitated a crash? This might just have averted that very scenario. All in all I think this situation is highly suspect and the timeliness horrible. We will never know how the public reaction would have been. All the people will see is the new DOW presented to them that was altered (and most likely they, JQP, doesn't know it was changed. The average guy/gal working small investor probably didn't see the news bit, and they usually only turn on CNN and look at the DJIA reported in the evening on the bottom right hand corner). True it may have been business as usual for TPTB at Wall St. but I stick to my assertions. I would, however, add that these changes will now make the beta (volitality) on the new DOW vrs old DOW higher, and if we do have a selloff that the new DOW would I believe decline at a higher rate. Slammer

-- Slammer (BillSlammer@Yahoo.Com), October 28, 1999.


HEY BEEFHEAD, are you really the DOW GUY? I think you are, because you are both MEATHEADS!! Bwaaahaaaahaaahaaahaahaa!

-- @ (@@@.@), October 28, 1999.

thinkican said it best:

"Because its the last Chistmas of the millinium, I think this will be one of the greatest Holiday spendings of all time. With only 2% to 3% of us feeling that this could be TEOTWAWKI, the other 97% to 98% will keep the cash registars buzzing,..."

You ever stop to wonder why it's only 2 or 3 %???

You ever stop to wonder HOW anybody could cover up the end of life as we know it?? ESPECIALLY THIS LATE IN THE YEAR?

Yeah, just 2 or 3 %. I didn't think there were that many deranged people in our country. Learn something new everyday huh?

-- (wow@_._), October 28, 1999.


How about a new song? The doomer waltz is getting old.

bwahahahahahaha HOLY COW? Did you see that stock market close???

-- (Where'sthe@beef.com), October 28, 1999.


It's quite obvious that the reason the market did so well today is that my man Bill Bradley did well in the debate last night.

-- Benjamin Graham (watch@the.fundamentals), October 28, 1999.

Hey Beef...

The crash is coming, you need only patience. If you want to know "where's the beef?" We've got about 40 head - on the hoof.

Wow@...

It's always just 2-3% - that's all it took to win the American revolution.

Benjamin Graham...

Bill Bradley is a SOCIALIST PUKE! Anyone dumb enough to vote for filth like him shouldn't be allowed to vote. You make a strong case for testing voters to see if they have an "I" and a "Q".

-- Patrick (pmchenry@gradall.com), October 28, 1999.


The greatest economic crash in history will occur unexpectedly at a time when complacent citizens believe all is well and nothing can go wrong. We are now at that level of arrogant overconfidence.

Then out of the blue, sudden disaster strikes, people experience a massive mood swing to sell, and the market crashes, never to rise again.

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), October 28, 1999.


oh the market will rise again, most definitely. We just don't know when nor by how much.....

By the way, cinsierding the obvious and rather smug tone of the original message: the S&P 500 is now at about 1345 = the same as it was in mid-March, mid-April, in mid-April, in mid-June (going up to the peak in mid-July), in mid-August (going down from that peak), and again in mid-Sept.

Is that heathy economic growth, or is the "turn" in the market in July - so significant now that it is visible in the five year and the ten year graphs, a sign that - despite today's growth, or tomorrow's likely fall - it will most likely go down from today! - that the bear market has begun.

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Marietta, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), October 28, 1999.


If you have an ear to hear,

the lack of an early stock market crash is one of the main reasons I am more pessimistic -- the higher it goes, the farther it will crash, and the closer it happens to Y2K the worse _both_ will be. "For this reason God sends them a powerful delusion so that they will believe the lie and so that all will be condemned who have not believed the truth but have delighted in wickedness. (2Th 2:11-12)"

Infomagic

-- a (a@a.a), October 28, 1999.


Ivan should go stick his head in a toilet and flush. This loser has been confronted on his bad mathematics, his assumptions and every other WRONG piece of trash he has published. He has the garbonzo's to quote 2 Thess? He needs to open his own ears and listen to what that scripture is saying. He might find the saying "physician, heal thyself!" more appropriate!

Don't you just love this quote too...."despite today's growth, or tomorrow's likely fall - it will most likely go down from today!" BOB Cook ------ WOW! you gotta love that Tinfoil Tenacity©! Just keep praying for problems doomers.....you will get them one of these days, I'm sure.

-- Mingham Is Nuts (flaked@out.beyond recognising), October 28, 1999.


Mingham Is Nuts,

You would be a lot more convincing if you could cite some good economic news *other than* that the stock market indices rose again. Corporate profit levels started to fall a couple of quarters ago. In my book that can only mean stocks are going up because people think stocks go up and they want to buy them. That is hardly a healthy, robust signal of good times ahead. Except maybe to you.

-- Brian McLaughlin (brianm@ims.com), October 29, 1999.


Hey "Where's the Beef: Ummm, wasn't my question directed at Slammer...I think it was...! Please, wait your turn. BTW: I corrected your chronic-lycrocis so YOU wouldn't look like a "loser" ... get the difference? (smile)

Everyone: Thanks for the "new" list of stocks.

-- mar (derigueur2@aol.com), October 29, 1999.


Mar,

Did you forget to take your prozac this morning?

-- (Wher'sthe@beef.com), October 29, 1999.


Yeah, I think so...grin!

-- mar (derigueur2@aol.com), October 29, 1999.

Moderation questions? read the FAQ