It was pointed out that the lack of threads recently is related to a tiredness, perhaps natural in fall, but also a sense that we cannot predict the outcome.

Here are some things that only the staunchest of the polyannas will deny as 100% predictions:

Y2k will cause the failures of some computers and some businesses. Even if the number is as low a 1% worldwide, that is an immense number of events to occur in a short time. Some of these failures will be high impact, very visible, and will make international news.

Because the public has been led to believe there will be almost no problems, they are not going to be very well prepared to handle even the smallest of problems.

The technical outcome of many problems will be negatively affected by the social reaction to the problem....from business managers making ill-informed decisions on down to rioting and looting by those who think they have nothing more to loose.

The first 3 months after the rollover are the coldest months of the year. Hundreds of millions of people worldwide are at risk of freezing to death if local energy supplies stop anytime during the 3 months for a longer period.

A lot more preparation will have been made than was believed, but much of it will have been made in the wrong way.i.e. the needed resources will not be where people thought they were needed.

There will be a very vocal issue coming into the news in December related to the very unusual requirement that many organisations are making to deny the usual amount of time off to key employees over the holidays. There will be cops, national guards, and military boys, standing in front of TV cameras saying, I dont care if they fire me, I am going to stay home with my loved ones.

There will be massive short term cancellations of travel and party plans over the new years night. This will begin en masse only once some type of panic has become visible.

In the last weeks, there will be a growing tension between what the officials are saying (keep calm) and what the public is believing. This will be worse outside the USA (probably very strong in Japan). The last minute official line in the USA will have to change towe know there will be problems, there will be some places with very significant problems, we ask citizens to focus on solutions and cooperate with authorities and not to panic.

Once the ice breaks for real, and the heated discussion begins, the media will jump on the topic with a furyjust like O.J. and Monicathey cannot resist something which captures the masses. Y2k will be the top story in the news for at least the entire month of January.

With a population of 250 million and a life expectancy of 75 years, there are approximately 3 million deaths per year due to natural causesor about 250,000 per month. This means that at any time, there are about 1 million people who are ready to die in the next four months, usually very old and very ill sitting in beds in hospitals or at home. In addition, there are about another 6 million people who are ready to die in the next 2 years, simply awaiting an event like pneumonia or a fall down the stairs. It is also safe to say that with a health industry as massive as we have in America, there are another 6 million people who are being given a lease on a longer life by drugs, surgeries, and regular care who would be at risk of dying early if their therapies were interrupted. In addition, there might be 30 million people who are in very poor vitality who would be at risk if they were suddenly put into a situation where they needed to be physically strong to survive (standing in cold lines outside waiting for food handouts, etc). Because of this, it is 100% predictable that the additional death toll due to y2k will be measureable (and in the end this statistic will be measured even if we have a 10).

There will definitely be some amount of collective panic either before or after Jan 1. The problem is just too well known and many are just procrastinating or taking a wait and see attitude.

The collective panic followed by the real effects of the problem followed by visible suffering and a slowly rising death toll worldwide, in a year where all bad things will be blamed on y2k, will cause an immense amount of soul searching at every level of society.

There will be a lot of finger pointingjust a carry over from were OK, but the others might not be.

The levels of both fear based and loved based behavior will rise significantly.

In the same way that people are under-preparing today, even when we are in recovery mode, the fear induced by the near misses, and the new understanding of systemic vulnerability, will cause over-preparing, which may slow down real recovery.

-- Thom Gilligan (thomgill@eznet.net), October 28, 1999