As in most commodities the path is never straight, and if you are not used to two steps forward and one back, you will be dishartened. But it is looking good for the next advance tonight.

-- goldbug (goldbug@mint.com), October 27, 1999

Answers

Gawd, do you think that this is a frigging GOLD FORUM??? Haven't you ever heard of kitco or gold-eagle??? Go spout your golden news there!!!

Gold up, gold down. DOW up, DOW down. Sure there are Y2K implications, but this constant "monitoring" of every move in every direction is pointless!

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.cum), October 27, 1999.

KOS -- Point well taken, but I personally feel that the first indication of the impending down turn will be shown in the gold market. Interesting that the buying started in Aussieland. You see the big money moves later in the day. If Gold is at 450 by the 'morrow. Someone with BIG money just made the KILLING that will kick the DOW in the a**. They would do it like this. It would start there and they would use the leverage of nearly twelve hours to make their pounce.

KOS it is important because it is a weather vane in a manner of speaking. If it really climbs tonight. It will be sooner and not later. If it takes a minor bump... well that is something else.

Watch GOLD because that is where they intend to wind up when all is said and done.

...

-- (...@.......), October 27, 1999.

More importantly, cocoa was down to a 6 month low! Chocolate can now be more inexpensively stored!!!

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), October 27, 1999.

It's interesting that they suggested fixing the price of gold. Some folks are apparently worried...

-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), October 27, 1999.

...,

Actually, Dec gold futures started moving up on NYMEX/COMEX today (10/27/1999). They moved up additionally this evening.

However, as for the "If gold is at 450 by the 'morrow" comment, well, I do try to avoid sarcasm, but that one is very tempting.

Let me put it this way, if gold is closer to its recent 339ish high than to 300 by the 'morrow, I'll buy you a sixpack of your favorite brand of tuna. :-)

Jerry

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), October 27, 1999.

Come on, KOS,

Did you git up on the wrong side of the pit this evening? :

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), October 27, 1999.

Mara,

If by "they" you are referring to Mundell and his proposal, he may not be the same "they" that are very active in recent gold trading.

Jerry

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), October 27, 1999.

"Watch GOLD because that is where they intend to wind up when all is said and done"

In a way, this demonstrates a certain degree of optimism on the part of the gentry making these plays. A barnful of gold will be cold comfort if the infrastructure has collapsed. Ergo, these folks don't expect that to happen. But do they know enough to be optimistic?

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), October 27, 1999.

Hey Goldbugs,

The action late Wed/early Thursday is called "squaring the books"... You see the gold market at the NY Comex trades in contracts with monthly expirations... Oct 28th (Thursday is the Final Notice Day) for trading in the October 1999 contract. If you're a speculator you've either got to get out of your position or settle the contract on Friday the 29th and give/take delivery of 100 ozs of Gold per contract.

Now, if you're "long" the market that means if you do nothing you've got to fork over all the money for 100 ozs at the price you agreed to on the contract...and have the gold shipped to you or make storage arrangements at the COMEX warehouses. Now, if you're a "short" that means you've sold somebody 100 ozs of gold and now you've got to fork it over to them on Friday. Now if you're long or short the market and you don't want to take possession or have to fork over the actual metal itself (and prefer someone else fork it over) then you'll have to go "buy" a contract to "cover" that "short-selling" contract that you had made at an earlier time.

What we're seeing are folks on both sides, "covering" their positions and rolling out of October contracts.... and or I should say in the case of December contracts the Dec's are seeing a spillover effect. Usually we don't see this much activity unless there has been excessive speculation about physical shortfall problems in a month.

So, I suspect that this is why the market is moving. I saw no price gaps that would suggest some sudden "News" item in the world that might have sparked the price...although Australia is expecting some unexpected higher inflation numbers due out in an Aussie gov't report on Thurs... Japan and Hong Kong seemed to have later opened their markets and took the POG down somewhat.

We might see a little more of this kind of price action on Thur in the Comex. Right now it appears that there are more "shorts" getting out than longs...as should be expected...so we're seeing a simple short-covering technical rally that doesn't mean too much right now. Dec 99 gold needs to close above $300 for Thursday and Friday to avoid technical signals to re-short the market downwards. Meanwhile this market continues to teeter on the edge. The DMI oscillator has done some "twisting of the + and - lines instead of issuing a "sell" signal so we may just enter a "choppy" period for a few days before getting a clear directional signal for the rest of the year, perhaps.

I agree with an earlier poster on this thread... Gold shouldn't be getting this much attention at TB 2000 as it IS NOT going to be an indicator for Y2K, (IMHO) as I don't think we're going to see a public panic unless the gov't comes out and gives them reason...and I don't see that happening. So, don't look for gold to give you any clues about Y2K...and same goes for the Stock Market also. Neither are going to be leading indicators for rollover predictions. IMHO.

-- Dick Moody (dickmoody@yahoo.com), October 28, 1999.

Thank you for not being sarcastic. I am NOT a metals analyst. I am NOT trained to make such judgements; however, Gold is precisely where the nebulous 'they' whomever 'they' are intend to wind up.

Yes a 'barn full of gold' wont buy much if the infrastructure goes belly up but the infrastructure isn't going to go belly up. Not in the short haul, barring a comet strike or nuke exchange, anyway. The system has a tremendous ammount of momentum built into it. 'They' simply want to come out on top. If you are the King in a free country, you are but a figurehead. If on the other hand you are a King in an enslaved world, well you are King indeed.

That King will not allow the infrastructure to deteriorate to the point that he has nothing to rule... Gold will have value, in some areas. Lead will have value in others.

-- (...@.......), October 28, 1999.

"So, I suspect that this is why the market is moving. I saw no price gaps that would suggest some sudden 'News' item in the world that might have sparked the price."

Well, it *does* come on the heels of the Goodfriend announcement.

-- Ron Schwarz (rs@clubvb.com.delete.this), October 28, 1999.

Ron S,

It's not clear if your comment was serious or not. Goodfriend's proposal, if it ever were implemented, and there are doubts that it would be politic to do so, would take years to get all the technology designed, built, and in place at all the banks. It would seem too iffy and too distant to have and immediate effect on markets.

Jerry

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), October 28, 1999.

He said the technology is currently available.

-- Ron Schwarz (rs@clubvb.com.delete.this), October 29, 1999.