http://216.46.238.34/articles/?a=1999/10/26/34625

Y2K, Russian Style

Col. Stanislav Lunev

October 26, 1999

Russians do not worry much about Y2K, the coming year-2000 computer problem, with its potential disruption of normal activities. Of course, Russia itself also has a Y2K problem, but it is not one of the major concerns of ordinary Russians. There are several reasons for this. For instance, Russians do not have as many computers as people in America and other developed countries and, therefore, do not depend on computers to the same degree.

Moreover, Russians feel reassured by the hundreds of millions of dollars the US and other Western governments have spent to fix Y2K problems in Russia. Most of the efforts have been focused on the Russian nuclear arsenal in order to avoid the accidental launching of their ICBMs, which are still aimed at Cold War targets in the West.

But the chief reason Russians are not preoccupied with the Y2K threat is to be found elsewhere. Russians are facing a greater disaster, a gigantic "Y2K, Russian Style," if you will, which they fear even more. They know that when this "Y2K, Russian Style" has finally run its course, normal daily life, to the extent it still exists in Russia, will vanish altogether. They foresee the following bleak prospects:

The entire banking system, which hasnt restored itself since last years collapse, will be wiped out once and for all. And Russians who havent been smart enough to keep their money at home will have their assets wiped out as well. The gas, oil, gold, lumber, and public-utilities industries will terminally close down. The new middle class not ruined by last years crisis will disappear completely as a social entity. Industrial and agricultural production will collapse, and real economy (not the virtual economy of the last several years) will cease to exist, in a country which must depend on exports.

What is more, the military chain of command, communications between the armed forces, and control over the nuclear arsenal will disintegrate, with the heightened possibility for the accidental launch of nuclear missiles. The ensuing political chaos in Russia will be followed by a repressive social order under a new dictatorship, eliminating any chance of democratic reforms.

You see, Y2K, Russian Style has little to do with computers and cyberspace and everything to do with the prevailing situation in Russia today. Western money has made possible the existence of the most powerful criminal group in the nation. Russians have named this group "The Family." It is a clan that includes President Boris Yeltsin, who rules as its Godfather, and his relatives, aids, assistants, advisors, and others, whose wealth and power depend on how close they are to Yeltsin.

During Yeltsins many bouts with mental and physical ailments, members of The Family control the country in his place through their people in the government, military, law enforcement, special services, and other agencies. The most powerful banks, industrial corporations, and utilities are in hands of Family members as well.

They are plundering the countrys resources to amass more and more wealth, which they transfer to their private accounts in Western banks. And they are doing exactly the same thing with the huge amounts of money received by Russia from international financial institutions and private Western investors.

They will continue to do this as long as Boris the Godfather stays in power and controls the country's political establishment, for he protects Family members from investigation and prosecution. But this situation cant last forever, because Yeltsin is limited to two presidential terms and has to leave the Kremlin next summer. His poor health might cause him to vacate office even sooner, with or without his consent.

If this happens, The Family will be in real danger because Yeltsin's successor will have to make at least a pretext of "cleaning house" after coming to office. To avoid any possible ill consequences from this, Family members will merely make a quick "getaway" in their private jets, which stay on 24-hour alert, ready at a moments notice to take off from the Moscow airport.

It would hardly be a matter of their having to flee the country with only a jet airplane and a little change in their pockets. Vast fortunes are awaiting them in Western banks. They already own mansions, castles, and other real estate in the most beautiful places in the world. In many cases, their immediate families are already living in these places and plan on staying out of Russia permanently.

With these vast assets in the West they wont have to worry about the collapse of their business involvements back in Russia. They have seen to it that these assets will never be returned to Russia. And they are unconcerned that it will take the Russian people generations to repay the international loans and credits which made up those assets - of which they, the people, havent received a cent. Tucked away in their villas, the perpetrators wont have to worry, either, about the resultant collapse of government and military, nor will they be troubled about the fate of the nuclear, chemical, biological, and other weapons of mass destruction theyve left behind. Their minds, as all criminal minds, focus only on the fast "buck."

Of course, in order to avoid having to make a quick exit they will try to prevent future elections and to place their own people in the Russian political establishment, who can replace Yeltsin in case he should leave office (see our next column - "Kremlin sanatorium"). There is no guarantee, however, that they will succeed at this or be able to avoid prosecution when the Godfather finally departs.

The prospects of Y2K, Russian Style coming soon are very real. If it happens, it will be much more destructive than the computer-style Y2K on January 1, 2000. And it can happen any time, even this year or the next. It will affect not only Russia itself, but the entire world. This is what the Russian people are worried about. Right or wrong, computer problems on the eve of the new millennium do not rank high on their scale of concerns.

-- Uncle Bob (UNCLB0B@Y2KOK.ORG), October 26, 1999

Answers

I have often felt that the current sad state of affairs in Russia is what awaits us after the rollover. Russia has seen its banks collapse, hyperinflation, and slow payment on pension plans. Entire industries are in decline, with workers many months behind in payment. Pollies who fail to realize what a cascading series of infrastructure failures will look like, only have to look at Russia. Information about the suffering is not often published by the western press as its too depressing.

-- Sure M. Worried (SureMWorried@bout.y2k.coming), October 26, 1999.