A VISIT FROM ST. URSINUS: "TWAS THE NIGHT BEFORE CRASHMAS"

(With apologies to Clement Clarke Moore) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- From the BEARX (www.prudentbear.com) chat board :)

Enjoy :)

'Twas the night before CRASHMAS, when all through the lair,

Not a creature was stirring, not even a bear.

Our ledgers were hung by the chimney with care,

In hopes that ST. URSINUS soon would be there.

The cubbies were nestled all snug in their beds,

While visions of margin calls danced in their heads,

And Ma in her 'kerchief, and I at my station,

Had been roused awake from a year's hibernation,

When out on the lawn there arose such a clatter,

I sprang from our den to see what was the matter.

Away to the window I flew like a flash,

Tore open the shutters and threw up the sash.

The moon on the breast of the new-fallen snow,

Showed a cluster of indices crumpled below!

When, what to my wondering eyes should appear,

But a miniature sleigh and eight reinbulls in gear!

With a little old driver--behind him a hearse,

I knew in a moment it must be ST. URSE!

Inside lay The Market, his joy to announce,

Flat as a pancake, with NO dead-cat bounce!

More rapid than down-gaps his coursers they came,

And he whistled, and shouted, and called them by name:

"Now, ABBY! Now, RALPHIE! Now, JOEY! And LOU!

On, ERIC! On, LARRY! On, JIM CRAMER, too!"

And leading the team in mad flight to the South --

MARIA with duct tape swathed over her mouth!

The Bulls had been cornered, all reined in to stay,

And now put to service, strained, pulling his sleigh!

"To the top of the porch! To the top of the wall!

Now hack away! Hack away! Hack away all!"

As dry leaves that before the wild STEWART did fly,

When I-nets kept rising, once rose to the sky,

So up to the house-top the coursers they flew,

With the sleigh full of BEARX, ST. URSINUS too!

A mighty procession with ST. URSE commanding,

He brought his team down for a mighty hard landing!

And then, in a twinkling, I heard on the roof,

The prancing end pawing of each little hoof.

As I drew in my head, and was turning around,

Down the chimney ST. URSINUS came with a bound.

He was covered in fur, from his head to his paws,

And clutched a dead AX in his powerful claws!

A bundle of USPIX he'd flung on his back,

And futures and T-bills and gold by the sack!

His eyes -- how they twinkled! His dimples puffed out,

His cheeks all aglow, and his nose a bear's snout!

His gentle old mouth was thrust out like a prow,

Two sparkling bright eyes lit up under his brow.

The stump of a pipe he held tight in his teeth,

And the smoke it encircled his head like a wreath.

He had a broad face and a great mighty chest,

That shook when he laughed -- with brown fur it was blest.

He was kindly and wise, a right jolly old elf,

And I laughed when I saw him, in spite of myself.

A wink of his eye end a twist of his head,

Soon gave me to know I had nothing to dread.

He spoke not a word, but went straight to his work,

And filled all the stockings, then turned with a jerk,

Laying his finger aside of his snout,

And giving a nod, up the chimney went out.

He sprang to his sleigh, to his team gave a whistle,

And away they all flew with the roar of a missile.

Down Lucent, down Cisco, they tumble and plummet!

Down Tyco and Dell -- way down from their summit!

Down Yahoo!, down eBay, down poor AOL!

How far will this fall last? Ah!! No one can tell!

But I heard him exclaim, as he drove out of sight,

"HAPPY CRASHMAS TO ALL, AND TO ALL A GOOD-NIGHT."

JennyBear (from Bear's chat forum)

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 25, 1999

Answers

Hello Andy,

Nice post, sorry for the serious answer..

If we still have power Jan 3rd (OK.. it's a big if), there will be the BIGGEST dow gain in history in the following weeks. We will be getting interactive TV, even faster computers, voice recognition systems that work, new superconductor technology, DSL and broadband internet connections, cures for forms of cancer, and things we cannot even imagine.

As I talk to other engineers in my group about Y2K, many of them have already changed their investment strategy to be more conservative. I slowly started to back off my portfolio last feburary. I'm 75% out now.

If the 'iron triangle' gives me indications that things are up I'm going to start getting back in in January, Feburary, ...

Gonna watch for 'ol Y2K and wait..

Bryce

-- Bryce (bryce@nospam.com), October 25, 1999.

Let's hope so Bryce. Personally I can't see it. Look at the dollar charts. it is tanking. We are a nation of debtors. We have a negative savings rate. We live on credit.

Take a read of this which I posted yesterday, and possibly you may be forced, following the logic of the post, to re-think your plans. the post refers to gold specifically but encompasses how the world views the USA. Hey, you may be right about a dow 36,000 :)

======================================================================

With all due respect to Mr. Moody, the gold market today is not an easy one to understand. Even Steve Kaplan changed his negativism of the rally to where he felt that it would go down but maybe not so badly. We have all been over the A Priori of this gold market, some not in so many words but nonetheless, we have seen the basis of the gold market's dilemna: A BIS/Euro v US$/IMF battle for reserve currency. (Battle conotes that all players are in it for their lives so may not be the best word, perhaps positioning would be better). From Mundell we can see the movement towards the Euro had its roots back in the early 70's when President Nixon took the US off the gold standard. Europe realized then that the US's (in their opinion) self- serving interests were not those of the Europeans and laid plans to protect themselves. What we are seeing today, from all appearances, is the crescendo of that planning. I don't think they purposefully 'battle' the dollar, rather I believe it is the result of the Euro's existence. The world has room for one 'reserve' curency, not two -- or perhaps it has room for two, but the market share of the one must equalize with the other, which means the $ must lower and the Euro must rise. Because the Euro is less-debt ridden than the dollar, it follows that the Euro should be valued at least twice that of the dollar if not more.

Gold enters into the picture because somehow the US$/IMF faction after 1971 didn't know how to deal with gold. It was obvious that other CB's were keeping their gold. This probably mystified a few US CB heads at the time. In the end, the Jamaica Accords set the record straight for Gold's role: the Mid-East wanted gold if it was going to provide cheap oil. Since oil is what the world used to power itself that by default left gold in the picture, but US$/IMF be damned if they would let it rise, because that would make the dollar look weak and as was seen in 1979-80' when oil did bid for gold in the open. We all saw what the price of gold did very quickly, it went up to $852/ounce.

I believe the events we see unfolding today are the direct result of other countries not wanting the US to continue to push the dollar as the reserve currency and with that all the baggage that comes with it, such as the IMF indebtedness of third world countries, lack of financial discipline, changing foreign policies, lack of committment or long-term goals, politcal expediency instead of long-term currency stability.

The on-going bubble, the use of derivatives, hedge fund irresponsibilties, foreign currency raids by large dollar factions, and US money managers forgetting the role of gold in world financial affairs (as a reserve asset and not a money-earning asset) upset the rest of the world. We are seeing the backlash to some of this irresponsbile behavior. I believe it is that simple.

So to say that Gold is set up for a big bear market contradicts the A Priori spoken of above. I believe the world beyond the US has spoken and said that gold is important to the world and don't mess with it. Should a big push come along to drive gold lower as Mr. Moody infers then I would see the following happening, which would likely reverse the push downwards rapidly:

-- Gold Cartel would be formed (and may already be in the works).

-- Oil would bid for gold directly again.

-- Some countries would openly sell dollars.

-- Some large stock faction unfriendly to the US might prick the stock market bubble in an unfriendly manner.

-- OPEC et al would lower production quotas more.

-- Who knows what else?

As you can see the world coconstitutes itself in that it is one big family in which all members deny their membership. When one member gets out of line (notwithstanding the power or financial prowess of that member) the rest of the world reacts in a way to bring that party back in the fold. This is what is happening and gold plays a central role because it is believed by most of the family to be the glue that holds all currencies together and because those who have the oil believe that, live by it, and will protect their gold because when their oil is gone, they have to have something to show for it.

When you view the world from the above perspective, you now understand the Ashanti gold stories, you see why Kuwait might put 79 tons in foreign account hands, why Mr. Armstrong bad talked gold so much, and why the US$/IMF faction is delaying the chess moves of the BIS/Euro faction. So Mr. Moody sees but one piece of the puzzle, doesn't have the big picture, and even though might get a short-term down trend correct will be left holding an empty hand as world events slip through his hand like water. IMO.

======================================================================

Good luck Bryce, and again, I hope you are right for all our sakes.

Andy

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 25, 1999.

Thanks for the story Andy Capp, enjoyed it very much!

Merry Chrashmas to You!

-- @ (@@@.@), October 25, 1999.

And a Happy New Bear!!

-- @ (@@@.@), October 25, 1999.

To those that a) give a fruck b) notice tghese things....

the sheople are indeed asleep AND CANNOT BE ROUSED ...

outta here

-- Andy (AUVENGER@cs.com), October 26, 1999.