ALMOST 60 DAYS OUT-WHAT ARE YOUR PREDICTIONS FOR Y2K?

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OK Everyone: We are now at almost only 60 days out. Realistically, where do you all stand for what you honestly think will happen here in the US as a result of Y2K? I think it's safe to rule out the MadMax/Thermonuculear War/Back-to-the-Middle-Ages type scenerio, but it won't just be a bump in the road that will all be fixed in a couple of days either. Come on everyone, lets here what your REALISTIC and RATIONAL predictions are; after all, they're a matter of history now.

-- What do you think will happen? (time's almost@out.com), October 24, 1999

Answers

Nothing. Everything will work fine. The stock market will rise and there will be no failures. The international supply chains will also be fine, too.

-- Doctor Pollydork (DrPollyDork@SingleDigitIQ.com), October 24, 1999.
Well, someone just asked me this via email, so here's the answer I gave them:

I think Y2K is potentially extremely serious, but we don't really have enough information to tell just how serious. We're lacking info in at least the following categories:

So at one extreme, we have a scenario where the work is completely dependent on computers, the systems fail and remediation is not available, and the company goes out of business, or the government can't print checks, and all hell breaks loose. I don't discount this possibility, but there's no way of estimating the odds. It irritates me no end that the official types won't admit this scenario is even possible, when it clearly is. And when just as clearly, they don't have enough information to judge the odds either.

At the other extreme, some systems fail, partially or completely. Users work around bugs or do without. Some countries are less automated, or more recently automated, and others manage to cobble together new systems for missing functions. Life goes on. I don't expect less than a recession in this case, but if all went as well as it possibly could, that would be the limit of it.

My current position on Y2K is that there is just not enough information to even give odds on these two extremes, let alone the middle possibilities of severe recession/depression.

I personally see no point in extensive food/water stockpiling, but I do think you should do whatever you can financially to get ready for a slump in the economy. If banks fail and stay down, it will rapidly lead to the worst-case end of the spectrum. Same for utilities. But partial failures, or very short-term failures might produce various middle of the road scenarios.

I have minimized my debts, bought options against a stock market crash (PrudentBear mutual fund in the U.S., www.prudentbear.com), bought a little bit of gold, and am preparing to move next month to a smaller town (to get cheaper rent, as well as avoid big-city panic.) Beyond that, there's not much I can think of to do. I'm not the survivalist type, even if I thought it was worthwhile.

-- You Know... (notme@nothere.junk), October 24, 1999.

Dr. Pollydork, Love your answer!

You're right...birds will be singing in the trees next year, Easter will be a delight, tulips will come up, baby deers will be wandering in the forests...all compliments of the U.S. government!!!

Now why am I preparing for a 15?...I don't know...

-- Psychotic (y2k@doom&gloom.com), October 24, 1999.

I predict that December 31, 1999 will preceed January 1, 2000.

Doesn't writing 2000 just blow yer fricking mind? When I was a kid that seemed like the next century.

-- (HighIQ@ .com), October 24, 1999.

Dick Clark's microphone will fail and start a cascade of failures come 01/01/2000.

-- Bill (y2khippo@yahoo.com), October 24, 1999.
60 days or 6 more years the people will not be ready and what is coming will be very bad news ( I think our nation will be in a mess,lawlessness will be the norm ) this will all be in thanks to our Goverment not wanting to tell us the truth. Then King Bill Will rule.

-- Gary P. McIntyre (gmcint2827@hurricane.net), October 24, 1999.
I hear that the government is planning on rolling the clocks forward sometime in April. This means that they are stealing time from us. The rumors I've heard is that they will roll the clocks up one hour. Think about it. If they steal one hour form every American citizen, how many hours will they end up with!!!!!!! And what evils do they plan on committing with all of this ill-gotten free time?

-- Butt Nugget (catsbutt@umailme.com), October 24, 1999.
I believe that when Y2K becomes the biggest non-event in memory, the Tinfoils on this forum will continue to subscribe to their regular litany of paranoid observations:

Black Helicopters

NWO

Klintons third term

Alien abduction

The Bildebergers

Blue signs on the highways

UN troops on American soil

Poisin contrails, and...

...a conspiracy behind every door!

The failure of Y2K to be "the" TEOTWAWKI event will disappoint the Tinfoils, however it will not disabuse them of the notion that it is still "just around the corner".

"Just about any sacrifice is worth getting rid of it (federal government) and moving BACK to a Constitutional republic with extremely limited Federal government powers. Even if it means the decimation of the population. If the population is 'content' to live under this tyranny, then they deserve to be wiped out as a result of Y2k. They do not deserve to call themselves 'Americans' because they have not the first clue what an 'American' is." - Paul



-- Y2K Pro (y2kpro1@hotmail.com), October 24, 1999.

i will contribute to this endeavor only because i have sought a forum where people may discuss the y2k issue with some semblance of subject continuity. in the past year i have visited numerous chat areas and forums where y2k was the subject. invariably, the participants fell in love or decided to organize tupperware parties. each forum or chatroom became absolutely useless in no time. it became aggravating to see participants become gurus based upon the fact that they posted (in a bragging manner by the way) that they had acquired 500 pounds of rice and were ready for anything. people speaking with great authority on topics about which they obviously knew nothing drove me away.

(the lower case posting is a result of time expended in chat rooms for relaxation at the end of long and stressful days. the effort to capitalize and punctuate was seen as unnecessary and too time consuming to an engineer with no keyboard skills.)

what will happen??? this question has been posed a million times by everyone ranging from imbeciles to those supposedly in the know. if anyone really knew what was going to happen in conjunction with the rollover the problem would not exist. ample money and resources exist to remedy or prepare for any problem that could arise. money and resources created whatever arises and could, consequently, correct whatever arises but... inability to foresee what may occur totally destroys that opportunity. each must prepare based upon what he (and i use the collective gender here) sees waiting in the darkness. with this being the case there is no cookbook to say "prepare as you would for a three day winter storm." in fact, one must prepare not only in accordance what he foresees but also in accordance with his personal needs. a 25 year old male living in an apartment in a midwestern city of 500,000 population, with relatives 30 miles away "in the mountains, on the river, or in the country" has far different preparation needs than the father and mother of five children living within five miles of the world trade center or five miles from mammoth cave. all the unknowns in this situation are what cause the dramatic differences in preparations people are making. those referred to a pollyannas in these forums are totally discounted as they contribute no more than taunting words and will, potentially and ultimately prove to be no more than a burden in the soup line. however, the question posed was "what will happen?" i will toss my predictions into the bowl as has every other visitor in such arenas.

we are hopelessly intertwined with every economy in the world. the pastry salesman in singapore impacts me and my world in the same manner as does general motors. the only difference is the magnitude of the impact... proportional to the money expended in the enterprise. if the pastry salesman falters due to y2k i will feel his failure possibly in a manner too small to be noticed. naturally, the failure of general motors will be noticed. if, worldwide, millions of equivalents of the pastry salesman fail i will certainly feel their departures. i believe we will feel a large "bump in the road" related to the world economies. the resiliency of world economies has been amazing to me. if our supposedly prepared country has enough resiliency and sheer size to absorb the failures here and throughout the world (and there will be failures of varying magnitudes... this is certain) we will experience a recession/depression (yardeni style). this is assuming all the glowing reports by washington, large companies and the media are factual and not propaganda to simply dissuade people from emptying the banks. if all that is being reported as progress is hype and the preparations consist of reports to satiate corporate heads and stockholders there will be hell to pay. being a bureaucrat of 25+ years i know the workings of the typical government agency. meeting reporting deadlines and mandates takes precedence over actual completion of the work. i estimate, at best, a success rate of not more than 70% on all systems "corrected" in the u.s. this will make for one helluva bump in the road and a three day winter storm with no road crews. i have prepared for extreme disruptions including power outages, periodic paychecks, limited ability to obtain fuels and all the things that accompany these perils for a period of 180 - 365 days. after that, things will be resolved to a workable state or will eventually deteriorate to the extent that i must provide for my family in a climate resembling wilder's little house on the prairie.

those with 500# piles of rice may now launch your arrows.

-- clayton (ratchetass@hotmail.com), October 24, 1999.

i agree that the sheeples have found their way into these forums with the hope of finding out what Klinton really plans on doing with y2k. but the fact of the matter is no one really knows what will happen with y2k. not Gary North not John Goskinem, not Cory Hamaski, not Bill Klinton. this causes most conversation on the subject to denigrate into a merely speculative conjecture with a basis of spin being spun by both sides of this debate we now have here at hand. add to this the many people who stand to profit by a bump in the road, and the many people who stand to profit by spooking out the sheeples and indeed we end up with a conundrum the size Jan Crouch's wig. then the flints of this issue show up here trying to be polemical with old and tired shibboleths which does nothing to add to this situation. i, myself will take the high road and just wait and see what happens.

-- % (%@%.%), October 24, 1999.
Before we post any more answers, let us all acknowledge, once and for all time, NO ONE KNOWS WHAT WILL HAPPEN, and please not feel the necessity of repeating it anymore. And now, for my really humble statement. After 18 months of absolutely profligate spending, after building a completely self sufficient y2k retreat and stockpiling enough food, guns and ammunition for an army, we are putting the homestead up for sale, buying a motor home (which is pretty y2k ready as it is) and putting our y2k stores on a y2k ready homestead of our friends. All of this is in preparation for traveling the good ole USofA. We will probably hang around in a 300 mile radius of the y2k retreat until this spring and then it is Travel City here we come. I think most systems will hold together by hook or crook and fake it through the rest of it. I think people will take A LOT of money out of the banks but Uncle Guv will shut it down until the panic is over. I personally am taking all but a little out. I will keep my little hoard of gold. I think the stock market will do what stock markets do, either because of, or in spite of, y2k. I am a lurker at this forum but it is my favorite. Flint keeps me from running around shouting the sky is falling and Cory Hamasaki keeps me from giving all my food stores to the Salvation Army. MsGlory

-- Roberta Blackard (roblackard@juno.com), October 24, 1999.
What will happen?

Most business' that depend on 00's and 000's of individual vendors, especially those who have vendors/suppliers from 'low income/third world' countries will eventually fail to the point that they will temporarily shut down until new avenues open up for them. This will be the catalyst for a worldwide depression that will continue for at least 2-3 years. Stock market will continue a decline until we are buying stocks based on the actual performance, not what it may be in 2010, let alone the following year. Dow 2000 or lower is my guess by the end of 2000 to the middle of 2001. Economies will become more localized again as they were 50+ years ago. I can't decide whether people will bounce their elected officials or believe their spin that "they didn't know this would happen". Life as we know it will definitely change. Fuel will become scarce, water will be a real problem in some areas of the US, especially the west where they depend on water from other states. Some people will have plenty of food, others will starve. Big cities will become lawless - small towns controllable. It all depends on the local leadership. Areas that have things good... food, water, law and order will become desirable places to live and many will attempt to move there however local 'militias' will keep others away in order to keep control. Refugees from big cities or areas that have very serious problems will wander, looking for food and some semblance of normalty - wanting to belong, to contribute to society with little to no luck. Bottom line, everything as we know it will change; some will win and live well (as people did in earler times), others will suffer. There is no way to know what areas will do better, however the more self-sufficient one is, the better off they will be.

Wars will break out worldwide in areas where they have been held back by the fear of the US getting involved. We will not have the ability to intervene except as a negotiator (ala Ireland). Watch out for China making moves to either be the big gorilla in the far east or to set themselves up for big moves later. China will keep it's people from directing their anger towards the government by leaning on Taiwan, Vietnam, maybe even Japan who is so automated and divested worldwide that they will suffer big time. Russia will collapse into civil war, not only in break-away republics but from within as the people say "enough". They will eventually come together under another iron rule. The socialists in central and south america will gain prestige again as banks fail and world trade declines /ends. Millions will die in African and other underdeveloped countries without the US and the UN there to take care of them. Some terrorists will take advantage of the situation to settle old, festering disputes against the US, Russia, anyone, everywhere.

Coming out of this will take much longer than we all thought. Again, some areas - locally - will recover faster and teach other areas how to do it. This will take many years as there will be no massive doses of capital to help. This country will again learn the lesson of 'tightening their belts' and not overextending. America and other countries will come out of this both spiritually and other ways better than we were going in. As throughout history, bad times will help us in the long run to come together for the good of all. We will learn from this and look at life/business/politics differently. Most will be happy we never instituted ridiculous gun control laws where we would have taken them away from citizens.

God Bless America and everyone else. Good Luck.

-- Mark Miclette (info @gasmasks.com), October 24, 1999.

1. Stock market will fall

2. Banks will not have enough currency,----runs

3. Public will begin to prepare----too late

4. There will be enough problems globally to create depression

5. Society will be substantially changed by next April

6. Everything will be in short supply--subsistance will be necessary.

7. In that order!!!

Do not understand why more people cannot fathom any or all of the above. especially with all of the evidence available!!

-- David Butts (dciinc@aol.com), October 24, 1999.

I don't know, but an alledged NSA "leakie" alledgedly said that all Interstate highways will be closed to civilian traffic Dec. 21. Also all gas stations on Interstate will be closed by Gov.Cement barriers are ready to block in going or out going traffic from cities and country. Jingle bells, jingle bells, jingle all the way. Oh what fun it is to ride on a one horse open sleigh!

-- Betty Alice (Barn266@aol.com), October 24, 1999.
There are two biggies that could fail immediately and stay down, and if either does it will go TEOTWAWKI real fast: 1) utilities such as power, telecommunications, water/sewer; 2) the banking system not being able to pay anything.

IF utilities and the banking system handle the rollover well enough, with just manageable problems, then I predit it will be something like Yourdon's "Year of Uncertainty, Decade of Depression" as numerous and serious Y2K problems -- including and perhaps especially those in the foreign countries that we depend on -- take their toll in 2000, causing scarcity of goods, high unemployment, etc., etc.

Betty Alice: Do you like to mudwrestle?

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.gum), October 24, 1999.
Oh. gosh, I thought you'd never ask! Yes, and I have a nice farm pond that is down quite low right now. Real sqwishy.

-- Betty Alice (Barn266@aol.com), October 24, 1999.
What do you think:

How can one generalize about the state of the U.S. when the U.S. is serviced by so many different entities? I certainly don't feel that I can do that. What I feel I CAN do is express my opinions on what Y2k will bring to MY LITTLE AREA of the U.S. and myself personally. Will that do?

My electric company seems to be ready, so the campstove, oil/kerosene lamps probably won't be used except for situations wherein they're used currently. Squirrels, tree limbs, etc. will continue to play havoc with the system, but long-term disruptions will probably not occur.

My water/sewage company is completely remediated. Their only concern was the electric company, so water sources outside the tap will probably NOT be needed.

Local businesses are remediated. I can't guess on their suppliers.

Local banks are remediated. I don't foresee ANY bank runs here.

Employment locally for folks with large system computer skills is IFFY (as it has been through 1999.) I will probably have to train for another profession or another subset of my profession if this trend continues.

-- Anita (notgiving@anymore.com), October 24, 1999.

Betty Alice , can you provide any proof of what you posted about Dec 21?

-- (rcarver@inacom.com), October 24, 1999.
Officially, nothing will happen. Oh, there will be "isolated outages" and "undesirable elements seeking to take advantage of the perceived situation" in various cities, but it will be downplayed and diminished except for reports about Mayor "Smith" requesting and receiving assistance that solved the problem in the twinkling of an eye. There will, however, be numerous reports from overseas, about how terribly all those OTHER nations are faring and why your Nike's will now cost $249.95-if you can find a pair in your size. Latte's will become like expensive wine-served only on special occasions. But most everyone will breathe a collective sigh of relief. Sure it's inconvenient, but hey, if it's happening over there, at least it's not happening here and we can thank Uncle that we can watch it all on CNN. The news media will cooperate fully and we will simply not be able to confirm that anything is happening here except over the Internet and you know how many rumors there always are...what are you, anyway? some kind of doomer?! But they won't be able to hide the truth forever. Then, we will see a controlled release of disturbing stories about failures and glitches appearing, causing hardships. There will be polls by the "initial" networks calling for somebody to "do something". There will be cautious suggestions and hints about dynamic leadership taking charge and "taking our nation back","restoring order" and "peace and safety in our time". Then will come martial law and the long dark night of a once free people.

-- chairborne commando (what-me-worry@armageddon.com), October 24, 1999.

With ALL of 38 Federal days left 'till the Roll, the time for heavy lifting has passed. Expect Embeddeds to be a real problem...not only because of the date change, but because of the x86 inadequate interrupt structure.

Half dozen Bhopals worldwide.



-- K. Stevens (kstevens@ It's ALL going away in January.com), October 24, 1999.

This has been a tough area to get honest results on testing/fixes etc... But, reading some of the information coming out of Corporate America and Government, I would say you should prepare for the worse and hope for the best. My opinions are just that and only based upon the limited research That I have done, but here goes...

1) I also think the stock market will suffer big time, due to many factors associated with Y2K including the effect on corporate profits.

2) From what I gather we are in a global economy, what effects Asia, Latin America, EMEA, etc... will have an impact on the US.

3) Computers are interconnected in most environments, if only a few % fail they could have a domino effect on the others.

4) I do not think you will have runs on banks in 99, because there appears to be complacency among most of Americans. However that could change very quickly come Jan. If things really turn out badly.

5) I think the result of Y2K will cause a global severe recession, or perhaps worse in some parts of the world, that will last 6-12 months. Good luck to all.

-- Rich (roccof4@aol.com), October 24, 1999.

Civilization will collapse, however this will be covered up by big government and big business, so nobody will actually notice.

-- (duh@duh.duh), October 24, 1999.
The reality still won't hit people that a severe global crisis has occured because "somebody" will still be reassuring them that everything is under control. Spin doctors never die. I know there will be rioting and looting because there are those who have said they will y2k or not. But the vast majority will continue to be in denial until tragedy is at their own front door.

-- Itol D. Youso (mrosscorecomm@hotmail.com), October 24, 1999.
For a fictionalized view of what may happen if things go seriously wrong, read Jean Hegland's book "Into the Wood" that came out a couple of years ago. First, there are power shortages, then the gas stations get boarded up, then no news, just rumours. For me this is one of the biggest fears. It is quite likely that after a certain period of time, we will not know what is going on in many parts of the world.

I read this book before I knew about Y2K, but it strikes me that maybe the author was thinking about it when she wrote it. I highly recommend it.

-- Nina (lanina1963@yahoo.com), October 24, 1999.

Nothing I've seen in the past few months has changed my mind ...
Market Crash / Bank Runs by 12/99 at the latest.
Major Oil Problems by 1/00.

I think a Global Depression is the best we can hope for.

-- Dan G (earth_changes@hotmail.com), October 24, 1999.
I am going to look at this from a 10 year perspective and make the assumption that oil production is significantly hindered by y2k issues.

The economy of the US indeed the entire world will be substantially disrupted. This will result is isolationism in the United States.

China will grab Tibet, India, Pakistan, S.E. Asis, and Tiwan where they will stop for a breather and decide whether to take more or consolidate their gains. This will be a golden opportunity to threaten the West's primary interest... The major oil producers.

The Russians will necessiarly push south and reoccupy most of the countries they have lost in the past ten years and probably try to make a strategic approach to the middle east. They will decide to do this because they (though an oil producer also) can't allow China to control the worlds oil. The long term cost is too high.

Nato and the US will try to protect their lifelines half a world away but will not have the resources to do anything for the Far East. Japan will fall to China. North and South Korea will be absorbed as well.

The European Union will forge a much more solid coalition and we will be left out in the cold except for the oil we can buy by providing help in the their cause.

Australia will try to consolidate it's economy and region and will become virtually a non-player.

Eventually ... someone will come to me and tell me to put my neck on a block. I will do it as I try to tell him that there is a better way.

Well the rest is prophecy, isn't it?

I sure hope I am wrong. -m-

-- Michael Erskine (osiris@urbanna.net), October 24, 1999.

There are a lot of wild cards. It's simply impossible to predict what will happen.

Y2K has many "impact axes." I will only talk about one aspect that has nothing to do with computers--that's right--the Y2K people problem!

One thing is certain. y2k, having been downplayed by government PR experts, will arrive and create unexpected disruptions. People used to everything running soothly will feel betrayed or at best thoroughly annoyed; that's a given. Another thing is certain... About 1% of the population is psychotic and delusional (victims of "deinstitutionalization") and will be very very distressed by the change to 00. Will some go "postal?" I certainly hope not, but sadly I will not be surprised if some do. Another 1% are in cults such as Heaven's Gate and are brainwashed into believing that their own version of the apocalypse is imminent and inevitable. Will they try to make their apocalypses self-fulfilling? Again I hope not but there is no reason to believe that they won't.

Will hysterical partyers do crazy stuff like British soccer hooligans or Carolina Fans after kicking Dook's ass? Almost certainly. There will be lots of drunk and drugged people in the deepest fathoms of inebration, and some will feel really let down by the "party of the century" falling a little flat. You better believe that police cars and national guard will be spraying that tear gas and swinging their batons quite liberally once the crowds get out of hand. There might be ten Rodney King incidents in every large city, only further fanning the flames.

Other socially-controlled wild cars of less certainty are bank runs and a stock market crash. Already we are in a late boom with a stagnant if not bear market, propped up by manipulation of a few indices like the dow and the nasdaq. Will it crash? Maybe not, because money managers might keep very tight reigns on things. Then again, they can only hold up the house of cards so long. Who knows? Bank runs are less likely but very genuinely possible. The only reason I am skeptical about them is that very few people have already pulled their money. They should have done so by now if trouble were in the air. Also, it's unlikely that people will be hoarding cash when they'll be spending it on holiday stuff.

Psychologically, the change of date is going to be a real downer that will kill the long boom of the 90s. For every mass excitement, there is always a let-down. For obvious reasons, Jan. 1-7 will find most of us struggling to cope with an uncertain and chaotic future, perhaps amidst very trying disruption is daily life. Uncertainty is the only certainty. Where there is uncertainty, the risk-taking that is necessary for economic growth vanishes.

-- coprolith (coprolith@rocketship.com), October 24, 1999.

Sorry, carver, I shouldn't have passed a rumor. It was of those callers on shortwave. Absolutely no proof.

-- Betty Alice (Barn266@aol.com), October 24, 1999.
corpolith's speculation is about what I would have said. Nobody knows, there is so very little in the way of reliable and trustworthy information. I hope that we get away with no worse than a depression, but I sure could see it being a lot worse, especially for people in the cities.

68 days.

Y2K CANNOT BE FIXED!

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.~net), October 24, 1999.
My prediction remains the same - I don't have one. I DO know that I have prepared for any eventuality to the best of my ability.

I doubt the extremes will happen from either end. On the 'polly' side, I think it will be more difficult to cover up the failures that will result from y2k. On the 'doomer' side, I do not expect the downfall of our country. I do think that some things may be in short supply, and that they will be expensive.

I am not one who will be giving food to charity next year, we will be eating what we have stored. There is nothing I have purchased that we do not normally eat and/or use with one exception. I have never purchased whole chicken in a can before.

-- Dian (bdp@accessunited.com), October 25, 1999.

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