Has anyone here seen the latest solar flare warnings? There's several warnings for today and tomorrow. I follow it regularly and I have never seen so many warnings such as today.

http://solar.sec.noaa.gov/index.html

-- Sun Catcher (suncatcher@suncatcherr.xcom), October 22, 1999

Answers

From same site:

# JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY : : : : : : : CORRECTED COPY : : : : : : : SDF NUMBER 295 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 22 OCT 1999 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD WAS A C4/SF IN REGION 8732 (N20W89) AT 22/0915Z. TWO TYPE II'S OCCURRED AT 22/0853Z AND 22/1300Z, LIKELY DUE TO THE CME ACTIVITY IN THE CLUSTER OF REGIONS TRANSITING THE NORTHWEST LIMB. REGIONS 8737 (S15W26) AND 8739 (S13E43) BOTH EXHIBITED GROWTH THIS PERIOD WITH REGION 8739 PRODUCING A 1F/SF AT 22/1929Z. NEW REGIONS 8740 (N27W83) AND 8741 (S25E64) WERE NUMBERED TODAY. IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT IS STILL POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 8731 (N12W79) AND REGION 8732, AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE WEST LIMB. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY FROM REGIONS 8737 AND 8739.

-- (get@grip.buddy), October 22, 1999.

.....and guess what ?

This cylical solar phenomena happens to be the very same event Hydro Quebec blames for the huge power black-outs of a few yeras ago ! Hydro-Quebec is North-America's largest electric energy producer and is part of the north-eastern power grid.

Essentially, a huge increase in high energy particles from the sun bombarding the earth basically induced much higher voltages in the Hydro-Quebec grid and knocked them out. This is the official Hydro-Quebec explanation of the black-out back then.

However, it just so happens, that the " Peak Season " in solar spot activity for this cycle is expected around the first few weeks of January 2000 !!! no kidding !! mmmmmmmmm :-)

Addding to that the "patch job " to repair the power lines that were damaged in last year 's " Ice Storm " and you can see why it is reasonnable to be concerned and be prepared.

I had 8 cords of wood and we managed through 17 days of the bitter Canadian winter last year. The canadian military were a great help to us. I was a volonteer and saw their work first hand.

This year I am taking delivery of 12 cords and the neighbors are all preparing as well. No need for panic IF one prepares !

Canuck

-- Canuck (michelwi@colba.net), October 22, 1999.

Are you sure you are talking chords??? That's a lot of wood for only 17 days.

-- More Dinty Moore (dac@ccrtc.com), October 22, 1999.

Our winters are just a litttttttle longer than 17 days !

-- Canuck (michelwi@colba.net), October 22, 1999.

Today's Forecast
Courtesy NOAA. Updated
1999 Oct 23 0015 UT

24-hour Forecast
Solar activity will be low to
moderate. Geophysical
activity will be at active to
minor storm levels.
Current Conditions
Solar activity is low.
Geophysical activity is at
quiet to severe storm
levels.

Daily Solar Flare Probabilities
1999 Oct 22 2310 UT
CLASS M
24hr 40 %
48ht 35 %
CLASS X
24hr 01 %
48hr 01 %


-- spider (spider0@usa.net), October 23, 1999.

I think the solar flares will be bad and contribute to the probability of blackouts in January.

-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), October 23, 1999.

* Y2K is Real.
* Y2K is a sub-set of the Millennium Problem.

Some of you understand this now, the rest will in a few months from now.

-- Dan G (earth_changes@hotmail.com), October 23, 1999.

Hey Canuck- how far up are you? The power out here comes via Hydro Quebec- another reason I am off-grid!

-- farmer (hillsidefarm@drbs.com), October 23, 1999.

Its a logarithmic scale and the x-class events are the bad ones

http://solar.sec.noaa.gov/today.html

-- PD (PaulDMaher@worldnet.att.com), October 24, 1999.

Hi! If any of you are interested, there is another site that has great x-ray photos of the sun, and all these storms and flares, etc.

Go to: ftp://hoffa.gi.alaska.edu/pub/yohkoh/dailysxt.gif

They post a new photo every day. And if you want to see the whole month, go to:

ftp://hoffa.gi.alaska.edu/pub/yohkoh/sxt_latest29.gif

-- Margo (margos@bigisland.com), October 24, 1999.

I follow it continously, but I have stopped sharing for lack of interest here, as well as the flames. But here is one from the current event you may want to take a look at; Alerts seem to be uncommon to rare, but the white wash is status quo.

Aurora Alert - A blast of solar wind from the Sun on October 21 is creating strong geomagnetic storm conditions a day later. The Ultraviolet Imager onboard the POLAR spacecraft has captured dramatic images of the storm as seen from Earth orbit. FULL STORY:

http://science.nasa.gov/newhome/headlines/ast22oct99_2.htm

Another story, a couple of days ago, (different publisher) stated a recent CME had resulted in severe storming, and was a contributing factor in power outages in northern Canada. I did not follow up, but the news source is always reliable.

Oct 19, 1998 DOD braces for Space Storms (Solar Max - mid 2000) http://www.ntgov.com/gcn/gcn/1998/october19/33.htm

An added facet to the gem of Y2K.

-- michael (mikeymac@uswest.net), October 24, 1999.

http://www.ntgov.com/gcn/gcn/1998/october19/33.htm
FORBIDDEN

-- spider (spider0@usa.net), October 24, 1999.