70 DAYS TO GO,

SO WHERE ARE YOU AT NOW? Weigh in here with your two cents worth. I think this will be good for newbies and long timers as well. With 10 weeks to go, a snapshot of TB2000's collective concensus would be interesting to our little group, I think. Some of us might be surprised at where some are actually at who we ASSUMED were doomers or pollies or tinfoils or whatever...who knows? Lets all post and see!

Are you a doomer's doomer, or a polly's polly? Or somewhere else in between? Think we all would enjoy the "poll results" considering the back and forth flaming that passes for debate around here.

FWIW, please state what you think Y2K will bring and why, and, if you care to, whether you've changed your mind any. I suspect we all pretty much have our heels dug in and our minds made up....and are just waiting to see what happens.

Any interesting new stuff you've learned that would be good food for thought on what may happen come Y2K? Let's play nice, and have an interesting read. Go for it!

Sincerely,

-- Genius (codeslinger@work.now), October 22, 1999

Answers

Well, the biggest decision in my life is whether to find a babysitter and brave the crowds or just celebrate with family and watch Dick Clark from home. I'm leaning towards the latter since I don't like crowds. But, I will bet money that I will be watching the Tournament of Roses parade the next day. It is pretty exciting to watch the leading '1' go away.

-- You Knowwho (debunk@doomeridiots.com), October 22, 1999.

I've got all my "essentials". I could probably get more everyday type things, but if it's going to be really bad, I guess I can do without the niceity's.

I believe that the new year will bring chaos around the world, regardless of actuall y2k bugs. It's of no consequence to me what the catalyst is, if the result is chaos, then I'll plan for it. That being said, I think that it will be a 50-50 split between actual y2k problems and human reaction/overreaction. Like I said, the reasons are really irrelevent since no one, or no Gov. entity can control mass reactions. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

I don't like to label myself a doomer, but the fact is, that's where I fall. All in all, the new year will be unlike any new year any of us has ever encountered...I'm certain of that.

-- CygnusXI (noburnt@toast.net), October 22, 1999.

G-

Did you go on Prozac or are just sober today?

-- inquiring minds (want@to.know), October 22, 1999.

Washington Post
Area Is Top Terrorist Target, FBI Says
By David A. Vise
Friday, October 22, 1999; Page B01
http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/ 1999-10/22/211l-102299-idx.html

-- (studying@what.is), October 22, 1999.

I really don't understand can say it's not going to be a problem and give no evidence to support their claims. Most of the ones I've seen don't seem to be computer people. I am a Systems Engineer for a major manufacturer. I am the Y2K Project leader for factory floor systems. I have tested 252 devices (PLC's, PC's, embedded systems) for Y2K rollover. I have been working on this issue for 18 months and am finally finishing my last system fix. I have spent $250,000.00 on new equipment and software to fix real failures. I had 10 PCs out of 36 fail on the factory floor that had to be replaced. Most were 486's but some were pentium 75s. One of our failures shutdown the entire HVAC system for the plant. This is one plant out of 66 we have worldwide. My company has spent 16 million on remediation. Why do people think there is not going to be anything wrong? I even had to replace firmware in our Rolm phone system.

We are a JIT plant. We get parts from Korea and Mexico. Even though we will be ready, how many companies do you think were as diligent as we were? This is a serious problem. Don't be misled by those that know not what they talk about. Watch the people that are on the frontlines and see what they are doing. I don't have to read articles and listen to officials. I see the failures in front of me. Right now we can't forecast business past 12/31 cause we get back 1949 and this is from a system that was fixed. Go figure.

-- Y2Kfixer (remediating@help.now), October 22, 1999.

I keep wondering what I missed, or should have done, or should still do, in the ten weeks or so left. Money especially. Still have money in mutual funds. Should I move it to bonds? Do we need more ammo? Do we need more rice? What about plywood? More cat food? Tools? More t.p.? What am I forgetting?

Will any of this make any difference at all?

Damn. Wish it was over. No -- Wish it wasn't happening at all.

Auuugggghhhh!

-- just not (enjoying@this.atall), October 22, 1999.

After ya huff 'n puff and get enough, ya start worrying about how to keep it all. Somebody with a gas-powered chain saw can just cut a hole in the siding and walk right in ...

How to keep order in chaos? Pray for miracles.

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), October 22, 1999.

Still have money in mutual funds. Should I move it to bonds?

No. Take it out and buy more supplies.

Do we need more ammo?

Yes.

Do we need more rice?

Yes.

What about plywood?

If you can use it, yes.

More cat food?

If you have a cat, yes.

Tools?

Definitely yes. What you can't use will still be extremely valuable barter items.

More t.p.?

Yes!

What am I forgetting?

How about blankets, and durable clothing? Medicines and first-aid supplies?

Will any of this make any difference at all?

Only that it might save your life.

-- (its@coming.soon), October 22, 1999.

I don't believe Y2KFixer is telling the truth.

-- Skeptical (very@skeptical.now), October 22, 1999.

After ya huff 'n puff and get enough, ya start worrying about how to keep it all. Somebody with a gas-powered chain saw can just cut a hole in the siding and walk right in ...

That's what the guns and ammo are for.

-- (its@coming.soon), October 22, 1999.

Yep, the truth of that is becoming more clear ... but bullets too come right thru the siding -- sprays of them.

Where do we buy a kevlar bubble?

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), October 22, 1999.

Skeptical, you want to specify why you don't think Y2KFixer is telling the truth? Or are you just a typical polly who doesn't believe ANY bad news about Y2K? I'd really like to know why you don't believe Y2KFixer.

-- Ohio Bob (ohiobob@buckeyestate.com), October 22, 1999.

tampons will be more valuable than gold

-- zoobie (zoobiezoob@yahoo.com), October 22, 1999.

Because, Ohio Bob, if Y2Kfixer is telling the truth then he/she is a stupid project manager.

"One of our failures shutdown the entire HVAC system for the plant." They had a failure that shutdown the HVAC already? The only way they could have had a failure is if they were testing it, which is a violation of rule #1 of Y2K testing: Don't test a live system. Besides, HVAC systems generally are stand-alone, which means they can be run with the date set to any day. Also, HVACs can be run in hand-mode without the computer.

Can't forecast business past 12/31 because it comes up 1949? Give me a break. If that is true then other accounting errors would have been showing up in that system months ago, maybe even last year.

All the right buzzwords there, but there's no substance.

Besides, just because there will be failures doesn't necessarily mean there will be disasters.

-- Skeptical (evenmore@skeptical.now), October 22, 1999.

I'm expecting the US "economy" to resemble Russia's current economy by this time next year.

I hope the Feds can get their act together enough to help us organize our way out of this. It will require massive coordination not to slide into a 9++.

Finishing a couple preps, getting a well drilled quite soon. Talking about buying a massive amount (6,000 pounds - $400) of feed grain for neighbors. Much better to have them happy than not. Hell, better to have them ALIVE than not, if it comes to that.

-- mushroom (mushroom_bs_too_long@yahoo.com), October 22, 1999.

Tampons... hmmm... they are good for sucking chest wounds too... and lighter than twelve gauge shells. You may be right.

-- Michael Erskine (osiris@urbanna.net), October 22, 1999.

My wife agrees with zoob!! We're basically done, in our minds anyway, can always do more and probably will, especially as far as the critter food is concerned. I like to play with a bow, so more arrows and strings are in order. Extra can goods on the routine store trips as always. Having a yard sale this weekend, going to take the money and make one more run on Sams. Always more TP

-- BH (silentvoice@pobox.com), October 22, 1999.

Skeptical; Say after me, "I pledge, if by the remote chance I am in error, I will in no way seek sustenance or refuge from my neighbors. If in the event y2k becomes a snarl of small problems contributing to food shortages, power outages, and rising costs for all services and commodities, I will suffer this problem alone and without becoming a burden upon my neighbors. I will accept responsibility for my ignorant choices and accept their consequences."

Thank you skeptical, I no longer have to worry about what YOU will do when and if TSHTF.

-m-

-- Michael Erskine (osiris@urbanna.net), October 22, 1999.

FWIW,

I'm still at about a five overall. Think basic major infrastructure will be fine. Think banking system will be fine (I'm a programmer analyst that works in the banking system...but not a shill or pr type...all my Y2K test have went fine, fwiw). I would expect to see some disruptions and shortages of various durations, but no TEOTWAWKI. I'm most concerned with overseas. The most worrisome to me are the stories of aging nuclear reactors in Russia with no backup power for the reactor cooling systems. My brother is in Moscow, Russia. Hope I see him again. I would hate to see a glowing casket.

Here at home, in the USA, I think the threat of terrorism has actually increased for the Y2K time period. This now worries me more than the actual fallout from Y2K. Also more than the fallout from various nut cases and groups going bonkers or whatever.

What most surprises me is the public setiment regarding Y2K. I figured by now people would be worried sick about it. I was wrong. Now, I think the most likely scenario would be last minute buying spree's that clean off store shelves in the last week of this year -- very similar to what happens when the weather people forcast a snowstorm. Most people I've talked to just don't think Y2K will be a big deal. But, considering all the people trying to grab ratings and bucks with last minute hype, movies, "quasi-news reports", and interviews lending themselves to a "can you top this" sound bite contest, that would have to be negative in tone to attract viewers, I'm thinking this last minute media barrage might get enough people to go shopping for preps "just in case" "because you never know" to give the media types some good film footage of bare shelves and long lines at the grocery stores. But, I could be wrong again, of course.

I strongly suspect that the general feeling that times are good is the main reason people don't care. Right ahead of just not understanding technical issues all that well. I also suspect that if we were in a bad recession, then lots of people would be worried sick about what Y2K might bring instead of not being worried about it.

Right now there appears to be a relative "lull" in hard news about Y2K going one way or the other. I think that's why so many here have fixated on the stock market and price of gold. Personally, I think stocks are way too high. But, I thought they were way too high back when the dow was 6000. In any event, I think Y2K will bring whatever it will bring. And I think the stock market will do whatever it will do regardless -- and with no causal relationship to whatever the realities of Y2K happen to be -- at least till after 1-1-2000! Basically, I think there is a lot more room for the market to go down over the next ten weeks than for it to go up, but this is just a feeling, not any sort of informed opionion. I don't follow the market and really don't care what it does. I'm just saying that I don't think what it does over the next ten weeks will be indicative of what Y2K will bring -- good or bad, that's all.

As for were I will be for the rollover, I'll be at work. I've been deemed as "mission critical personel" to have on site during the rollover "just in case". I think they have gone way overboard myself, based on how all the testing has went, but I know they are just playing CYA so nobody can point any fingers of blame if some computer farts somewhere. So they need technical people like me on standby for assurances sake, I guess. As a teckie, I forget how much appearaces count, I guess. YUK! Oh, well, they pay me good, and I AM a do my duty kinda guy....I'll be right here, downtown major US city, no matter what.

As for preps, just the basics just in case. My apartment is all electric. So I'll have sleeping bags on hand. Food and water for 60 days, stuff I'll eat anyway, just 60 days worth. 60 days of basic personal supplies, but no stored gasoline or whatever. Just the basics, which I don't expect to need, but think is prudent to have on hand. No arsenal or "extra everything".

Well, there's my two cent's worth!

Best wishes,

-- Genius (codeslinger@work.now), October 22, 1999.

Hey Erskine, bite me.

Repeat after me, "I will not shoot the first person who knocks on my door on January 1, 2000."

-- Skeptical (pledge@yourself.fool), October 22, 1999.

Hey, Genius, you're not a polly. A 5? That puts you in the doomer camp there fella. You sound like a doomer who thinks he's a polly.

-- Friday (tgif@nd.seeya), October 22, 1999.

Mike,

You just made my day. "..lighter than twelve gauge shells". I LOL.

I got this mental picture of slinging tampons at would be looters, and the looters shouting "RUN AWAY!!", you know, like in Monty Python's Holy Grail. Good one! LOL

-- CygnusXI (noburnt@toast.net), October 22, 1999.

Good question actually. My children only recently left the nest. I am worried about them. One in L.A., one in Florida, the third is near enough that I should be able to collect him if TSHTF. I don't personally expect it to go down suddenly. I don't have a clue as to how quickly it will or how far things will deteriorate.

We have a well. I have thought about what my reaction to all this will be. There are many things which I need to do and not time to do it. I do not intend to panic as that will certainly make things worse. More than two years ago I stopped trying to warn people. I ask them what they think, they say awww that's a buncha bull. Then I explain to them that I believe there will be shortages of oil because of embedded systems in pipelines and I point to the fact that the price of oil is rising and OPEC since OPEC decided to throttle production. Then I ask them why they suppose OPEC decided to do that. The suggest it was for money. I tell them I believe it was to smoothe out the bump we are going to feel when ten to fifteen percent of the production goes down. I expect all petroleum product prices to make a large (30+ percent) increase in the first quater of next year. During the last half of the first quarter and second quarter that will drive I believe we will see a (60-100 percent) cost increase in basic items like bread and milk.

I have not hoarded food because I believe it may make things easier in the short haul but not in the long haul. Instead I am thinking about how my grandparents did things at the turn of the century in Oklahoma.

I have collected the necessarys required to live in the field and I figure they will help out around the house if we are able to remain in place. If we are not, then I can take them with us. Where will we go if it gets that bad? I won't know until I can look at where it is bad and how bad it gets. There is just no way that I can predict enough of tomorrow to make me certain of Janurary.

I have my weapons. They are mostly primitive but will do the job nicely. That job is not killing my neighbors but gathering food, as silently and unobtrusively as possible. I favor a bow for that purpose. Trapping is a good skill to have and snares are my chosen tool in that kit bag. Fortunatly there is a lot of water in this area. If it is viable, fishing will provide. I have collected the Foxfire series over the years. They tell me what local plants are available for forage. The vast majority of the population is less prepared than I, and I consider myself MINIMALLY prepared. I guess I have spent time storeing up 'survivalist' type information but have not done much actual preparation. A few hundred pounds of rice some beans and some seed, a daily prayer, and hope. That is what I will be bringing to the table on New Years Day.

One other thing, I took the pledge I wrote above two years ago. I will provide for my own and anyone else I can help, who does not behave in a threatening or dangerous manner. I hope it does not come to that and I fear that it will.

-m-

-- Michael Erskine (osiris@urbanna.net), October 22, 1999.

Skeptical; I won't shoot anyone. I promiss. Your turn. -m-

-- Michael Erskine (osiris@urbanna.net), October 22, 1999.

Inquiring mind,

I don't drink, smoke, do drugs or take medication of any kind. To satisfy your curiosity a bit, I'll share this:

I'm basically a very nice person. Very polite usually. But also someone you wouldn't want to mess with or attack either. Basically, my BWAHAHAHAHAHAing and taunts are aimed at the extremist here who I refer to as anti-society. I like society and the quality of life it afords my fellow humans. I despise people who hope calamity strikes and causes death and hardship for people. I despise people who wish for anarchy where brute force would rule. I also despise the ignorant mob mentality -- that thinks "string 'em up" is the way to go.

I'm VERY well skilled and proficient at taking human life -- quickly -- but I also value human life quite highly. I would probably fare relatively well under some "Mad Max" situation --compared to most folks -- but I still hope and pray I never see it -- mostly due to the horrible suffering it would cause people -- especially women and children. I do care a lot about other people, and go out of my way to help them...innocent folk, who are not a threat or rabid of mind (IMO) that is...the rest I "wouldn't lose any sleep over".

Also, I BWAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAH and taunt the doomer dorks who refuse to use logic and reason regarding Y2K. Lots of people here dismiss ANYTHING positive and MAGNIFY ANY computer fart they sniff out somewhere on the internet. This I find appalling...and stupid. And, FWIW, I do have a genius IQ, but just barely. I don't like stupid. And I don't care for close mindeded people who refuse to evaluate facts that go against their predetermined wishes and preferences. I also don't like bias and slant. I find lots of it here. I think the current fixation on the dow -- implying blips up or down portend doom or a BITR pretty lame -- I guess due to so little hard news of Y2K with predictive value of late. Some just have to fill the void I guess!

Anyway, now you have a little more insight into my psychology...and why some of my post seem "ok"...and some seem "trollish" by whatever definition you care to use.

As food for thought, I profer you consider that on this forumn, "ok" tends towards whatever takes doom and gloom for granted, or just has a doomer slant, or maybe inquiry from a non-polly -- and "trollish" is whatever goes against doomerism, anarchy, or the various conspiricy theories regarding TPTB, or can just be labeled "polly".

There is a definite slant here, and I don't like censorship or "editorial" bias -- including from moderators. Now you know why I post what some consider "trollish" on ocassion. Here, IMO, there are post which ocassion "trollish" replies....when I'm in the mood.

Just sharing what I think and how I am, for better or worse.

Best wishes,

-- Genius (codeslinger@work.now), October 22, 1999.

Codeslinger -- keep talking like that. People need to hear what you just said. Anarchy is just not all that it is cracked up to be.

-- Michael Erskine (osiris@urbanna.net), October 22, 1999.

Friday,

I've never been a polly. That's just the "shorthand" that labels what side of the TEOTWAWKI fense I'm on, I think. I used to be way more worried about Y2K than I am now. Used to be a 7 or 8. After evaluating news, test results and the lack of caos so far in 1999, I've moved down the scale quite a bit -- at least for us here in the good 'ol US of A.

The doomer dorks I taunt and rant against on occasion are those who in my mind are rabid of mind, extreme, and hope for DOOOOOOOMMMMMM!!!!!!! so the "sheeple" get "what's coming to them". Never cared for these folks. I think Y2K is just their latest "cause celeb"...next year it will be something else, I think.

Basically, I'm way too multi-faceted for simplistic labels in most areas, and Y2K is one such area. I'm neither polly or doomer in my opinion -- just a programmer/analyst that will be at his "battle station" come what may, or not (as Ms. Squire would say). I hope Y2K is the biggest non event of human history. I don't think reality -- at least globaly -- will be accomodating to my wishes. I think there will be problems. Anybody who thinks Y2K will be a 100% non-event is out for more than just lunch, IMO. However, I don't think it's TEOTWAWKI either. I just resent having a severe opinion of what Y2K will be like held out as some sort of "litmus test of acceptance" here. And I feel, rightly or wrongly, that it is here. But hey, we all have our opinions. Anyway, my reply to your post.

Best wishes,

-- Genius (codeslinger@work.now), October 22, 1999.

Michael,

I'm sure your statement about using the tampons in sucking chest wounds was intended in jest, but for those who might be considering using them for that purpose: DON'T STUFF A TAMPON IN ANY WOUND, **ESPECIALLY** A SUCKING CHEST WOUND.

Sorry to rant.

There, I got that off my chest. Feel better now. Thanks. :-)

gene

-- gene (ekbaker@essex1.com), October 22, 1999.

Use Kotex pads instead.

-- ~~~~ (~~~@~~~.com), October 22, 1999.

Hey Genius, you may have a genius IQ, but I'm an honest to goodness genius (like Michelangelo, Lennon, etc.) So put the title to rest, will ya.

RealGenius

-- --- (--@--.com), October 22, 1999.

The gentleman is correct... DO NOT STICK A TAMPON INTO A SUCKING CHEST WOUND. The other gentleman is also correct... use a kotex backed with some watertight substance like a bread bag and bound tightly to the chest such that the wound will not draw air when the victim breathes. Place the victim on his/her side with the wounded side down. Elevate the head and shoulders slightly. Keep warm and be reassuring. Seek medical attention immediatly. That is the way I remember it anyway. Hope I'm not too far off.

-- Michael Erskine (osiris@urbanna.net), October 22, 1999.

The only thing I know for sure is that the economy is going to tank-- for a dozen reasons. Whether our preps help us survive or not is up for grabs. So is the degree of catastrophe that will ensue. Will we be like Russia right after the Soviet fall? Something like, I think. Hard to tell. Any consumer goods will be of great value.

-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), October 22, 1999.

I agree with you Mara, when times get tough, people will be giving their gold away in exchange for food. This has happened many times throughout history and Y2K will be no different. If your prepared and you survive the violence then half the battle is over. Those living in the big cities no doubt will have it the hardest. One good thing about Y2K preparations, is we had plenty of time to prepare. All it will take is one media blurb and the stores will be emptied. I'm curious to see how it will happen.

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), October 22, 1999.

I first believed Y2K would be a 6 or 7, then began researching the issue for myself (about two years ago). After making some preparations and a huge disillusionment, I believed Y2K would be a 2 or 3. Since that time, due to a combination of more research and growing evidence (Jim Lord's "vanishing" reports, Mr. Yourdon's "under-estimations," and the JoAnne non-Effect), I have reduced my estimation of Y2K to around 0.1 - and I may be exagerrating it's (non-) effects at that.

So, last year I gave the little stored food I had accumulated before realising the truth to agencies that provide for those less fortunate than I. This act prompted me to become more involved in helping others in crisis situations.

Regards,
Andy Ray

-- Andy Ray (andyman633@hotmail.com), October 22, 1999.

We have food stored. Our grandparents kept four years' worth on hand at all times; we have maybe 8 months for just our nuclear family. We'll feed any of our neighbors who need it. We plan to visit with all of our neighbors and let them know this. If nothing extreme happens, we haven't done anything crazy. If something extreme happens, we'll have been as prepared as possible for as many people as possible. There are plenty of bugs to fall back on for protein.

No one lives forever. We'll try to have as good a time as possible until the end. Tampons won't be needed that much, Zoobie. In the absence of reliable birth control...well... ;)

-- helen (sstaten@fullnet.net), October 22, 1999.

re SUCKING CHEST WOUND:

NO ABSORBENT ANYTHING NEAR THE HOLE!!!!!

Us an oclusive dressing (larger than a cig pack wrapper) taped down on 3 (THREE ONLY) sides so that the chest can vent.

position on injured side.

keep warm.

NOTHING by MOUTH.

Seek a surgeon, SA (Surgical Assistant), or vetrinarian if things are devolving.

Chuck (EMT-P, First responder Instructor) who has taught this part too many times

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), October 23, 1999.

William Shakespeare did not write this:

Signs temporal bereft of wisdom fail

When pressed against that gloomy, seething veil;

Thus nightmares bleak prevail upon our sense:

Dark visages of horror doth commence.

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), October 23, 1999.

Having done some weeding to YANK this thread back to usability, lets try to stay with it, shall we??

I happened to like the contribution to this point. Lets try to jump UP from here.

SYSOP # 3

-- jest a number- - # 3 (sysops@r.us), October 23, 1999.

Skeptical:

People like you is one reason those of us who are working on the problem don't bother to post on these forums. Your mind is made up so why should we waste our time.

We purposely rolled over the date live on the HVAC because that is what is going to happen in real life.

I'm prepared - I don't have to convince you.

-- Y2Kfixer (puzzled@giveup.com), October 24, 1999.