McConnell Testimony

Mr. McConnell repeated his testimony given earlier yesterday to the Senate Special Committee. Some excerpts from that testimony follow while the full testimony can be found at: http://www.iy2kcc.org/Testimony/19991013.htm#fn1

A picture is emerging of a failure scenario that is more complex than single, localized outages. What is likely in countries with numerous Y2K failures is a growing slowdown in commerce as capacity is reduced by a confluence of degraded infrastructure performance and shaky consumer confidence. To the extent that the slowdown is substantial, either in terms of the infrastructures affected or its duration, the performance of marginal businesses and economies will suffer, and so will the portfolios of their stakeholders. While the magnitude of the effects of these various interactions is inherently unpredictable, planners must be ready for both broader and longer disruptions in daily life. Performance degradation, potentially exacerbated by non-Y2K factors, may cascade from one infrastructure to another.

Fewer than 80 days remain to make and to test preparations for the date change. Certainly, the analyzing, fixing, and testing of systems must continue, work that will eventually need to be done in any case. And, where contingency and continuity planning is not already priority one, it must become so. But an impact that is chronic -- broad and long -- rather than acute, requires a special emphasis in making preparations. Below are additional actions that the IY2KCC believes are needed. The first two recommendations require governmental action, and include a brief description of current IY2KCC activities to promote such action. 1. To promote public confidence, governments and private organizations should clearly and openly tell their constituents what to expect in terms of how well critical infrastructures will function, including expected service levels for the date change period.12 They should also generally describe their contingency plans. To further promote transparency, the IY2KCC will update its public assessment of national government information dissemination efforts in mid-October and mid-November, giving special emphasis to contingency planning. 2. Governments and private organizations should avoid overreacting to the inevitable continuing uncertainty about other countries' readiness, and, instead, make plans to share event information and where necessary to provide assistance in restoring service in critical infrastructures beyond their own boundaries. The IY2KCC will work to establish an international framework for the response to serious Y2K failures. This mechanism will rely first on mutual-aid networks of infrastructure operators and equipment suppliers to promote market-based responses to service outages. This work is being coordinated in particular with the governments of the G-8 nations. 3. Infrastructure operators should be ready to interrupt the propagation of failure from one infrastructure to another by sharing information and by selective, temporary isolation of disrupted areas. 4. Critical service providers should have additional customer service and management staff on hand during and after the date change. 5. Y2K crisis management centers should plan to operate for weeks, not days. 6. Public affairs organizations should explicitly prepare for a wide variety of event scenarios.

Conclusions

1. Sr. Guedes and Mr. McConnell agree about the reality of failures with Sr. Guedes view having more acute factors at rollover. Neither is the bearer of good news, and one must , I think, give more credence to Sr. Guedes based upon his much longer involvement in the issue in the wider arena. 2. The likelihood of governments adopting transparency concerning Y2k information and contingency plans is extremely remote. 3. The public stance that the duration of the event requires planning for weeks of crisis management makes preparation important. We are beginnig to stop speaking about a three day storm. 4. Our global inter-dependencies ensure that no country will be exempt from issues arising from the century date change. /gomer mode on Surprize, surprize, surprize/gomer off

-- Drac (Itisdifferentthistime@dowswansong.com), October 21, 1999

Answers

. Infrastructure operators should be ready to interrupt the propagation of failure from one infrastructure to another by sharing information and by selective, temporary isolation of disrupted areas.

Wow!

What is the definition of 'temporary'?

At least in S. America it will be summer.

-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), October 21, 1999.

There's gonna be a devolution .... weelllll ... you know, we don't wanna change the world .....

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), October 21, 1999.

71 days.

Y2K CANNOT BE FIXED!

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.~net), October 21, 1999.

Sr. Guedes mention of Germany, as I pointed out in a answer in the thread below, is momentous. Germany is a main world economic & import/export powerhouse. Much of its natural gas comes in via Gazprom's lines - shakey indeed. Italy may be more well known right now as being behind in the European y2k effort, but I'll bet that Germany's lagging efforts will affect a lot more dominos.

-- Mitchell Barnes (spanda@inreach.com), October 21, 1999.

Got Coffee?

Got Shoes?

Got Sugar?

Got Fuel?

Got Cash?

Got More Cash?

-- semper paratus (imports@are.US), October 21, 1999.

The company I sell for is based in Munich. I was there for a week in early September. ZERO Y2K awareness. Its all hype! What I sell is made in Germany, from parts that come in from all over the globe. When they can't get certain parts from variuos parts of the world, they can't manufacture and ship. I ain't selling much then. Not selling, not making money, no money, no food for my family.

My market? Healthcare Who are my customers? Hospitals. When the problems with HFCA, medicaid and medicare payment systems between the FEDS, States, third party contractors/payors and hospitals begin (they all won't make it in time), hopsitals start seeing a reduction in reimbursement payments (manual methods as contingency) which means even less money, they stop buying what I'm selling. No commissions, no food, no mortgage payments. Y2K doesn't have to TEOTWAWKI (national power grid failure on Jan 1. However, rolling blackouts will begin later when the oil from OVERSEAS stops coming) for it to have drastic consequences for myself and my family.

So. Money out of the market. Out of the banks. Extra food to feed my family when I no longer have a product to sell or a customer with money to buy. Seems pretty obvious me what my contingency plans should be. But, the risperdane keeps me from thinking too logically (doomer like) and more like a good little polly. Let the good times roll. Y2K will usher in an era of even greater prosperity and luxury living. We will all be living large on the other side.

-- MarktheFart (happy@risperdane.com), October 21, 1999.

And JUST BY THE WAY< here we have ONE .gov agency strongly encouraging "Islanding" by description, while another sez they'll prohibit it here in the US.

Thins that make ya go "Hmmmm".

Night Train

-- jes a puzzled, grizzled ol' footballer (nighttr@in.lane), October 21, 1999.