This is the latest thinking from FOA (Friend of ANOTHER) from the usagold.com forum - it precisely outlines what will happen in the near term - FOA postulates that 85% of world gold production will not be sold off in quantity to depress the pprice of gold as it has been for the last 20 years and more. Now factor in the rumours of a gold miners' cartel or association which will cohesively, like OPEC, balance the supply and demand ratio...

This may be heavy, but if you want to grasp what is going on it will pay you to re-read this until you understand it...

FOA is talking of a run-up to $500+ in the near term (probably more like +++ in MHO... :) )

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FOA (10/16/99; 16:23:27MDT - Msg ID:16574)

Comment

http://www.decisionpoint.com/DailyCharts/00goldDXY.html

Once again I ask everyone to take a good look at the above chart. I offered it some days ago as a witness to what is about to take place. To date the dollar has fallen and US stocks have begun a revaluation that is far from over. Both of these trends will continue as the whole financial system changes it's tools of valuing assets.

The gold chart shows no signs of falling as would have been the case in recent years. Yet everyone sees this recent slowdown in advancement as a sign that the BBs are again working the will of the CBs. They are not! Indeed, is the fall in lending rates a sign that fresh gold is being supplied to cover the shorts? I tell you the lending arena of the gold market is frozen in loses.

Today the lease rates offer little direction because none of the major gold sellers have covered or intend to if they can help it. Yes many of the paper shorts have covered, but the thousands of tonnes of gold contracts have yet to be made whole for the "originator".

Is this how the game is played? Consider this as you watch the gold charts.

Two types of contracts exist in these numbers that will create the crisis. These are mixed in with "clean" deals. Yet they (90% of the short gold) create the real demand that will drive prices much higher unless the paper markets are sold into oblivion.

First, some are held by actual gold lenders (mostly private entities) that are now demanding a speedy end to these relationships. Mostly this gold was put "in play" not for the low returns but for the "fees and favours" bullion would generate. So, in order for these lenders to be made whole the gold must be purchased by the dealer in the open market or it must be borrowed from someone else to complete the transactions. The "BB dealers" have the option of arranging this return as able. Presently they are doing neither as they wait and assess the situation. This process is a game we now play as they wait for gold to fall and new supplies become available. All the while the lender sweats his position.

Understandably, they fear for the return of their gold at all. If defaulted on, they will most likely receive a cash payment that theoretically could be used to replace their gold. Still, if this process begins, a mad rush to buy gold using "default payments" would telegraph a full crisis into the trading arena. Gold would soar long before any large portion of bullion could be brought.

Second, many contracts are outright "naked short" in that it's the contract creators responsibility to supply gold when the term ends. In this position, usually gold was never lent or sold into the marketplace. The deal was little more than a play on gold falling with the writer risking the firms capital to profit making the difference in the gold price. Often a long time physical holder brought his fully owned bullion into this play and received most of his cash back plus a contract to receive gold (unallocated??). His gold could be sold outright or held by the bank as partial reserves to cover the writing of many other "naked short" contracts. This was the real engine that sucked private gold into the "supply for fabrication" deficit. In the process paper gold was sold to drive the prices down. All of the new investment demand for gold was supplied using a glut of paper instead of physical gold. Unbelievable as it may seem this is where Another said years ago that gold was falling because so many people were buying it! What seemed nuts then is understandable today.

In any event, the holders of these contracts are the ones that will be demanding "allocation" as they withdraw their investment funds from the falling stock and financial markets. Just as above, the physical markets are so tight that in order to close these deals, gold must be borrowed. That is if lenders can be found!

Onward:

We have entered the largest gold bull market in history. The Major world central banks have made it extremely clear that this bull will run as never before. Michael Kosares pointed people to the WGC site for an explanation of the recent "agreement", yet no one must not have read it for they still talk about CB and BB lending. People, it's not happening!

This small lag in the price spike is only about shorts in major trouble trying to assess how they can bail out. Here is a partial breakdown of the parts we should grasp. See the site for a full write up.

http://www.gold.org/Gra/Pr/Wr991006.htm

World Gold Council Review of:

The Washington Central Banks Agreement on Gold 26 September 1999

--First, it is an explicit signed agreement among the European central banks, which goes well beyond earlier 'clarifications' about their gold holdings by central bank governors. -----

----it has been signed by each central bank governor, all of whom (except the Bank of England) have legal responsibility for their gold reserves.-----------

During the recent fall in the gold market nothing was said to clarify to the public. All of the "official deals" were done for political reasons. Read our USAGOLD HOF site for background. Once the Euro was born, the reasons to drop the price of gold were removed. However, during this entire, multiyear operation, an enormous "sideline play" of selling gold developed. These people never would openly give their reasons for "coat tailing" the fall in gold. None of them understood why gold was falling and still don't. We can understand why they continue to think gold will fall as they have bet the bank on that outcome. The very ones in this sector are the same entities that will suffer the most as the IMF/dollar world is destroyed. For them it's going to be a double hardship. Today, the ECB/BIS has "openly stated for all to see" that gold will fall no more! It is indeed interesting that we spent but a few months below $280 and will now zoom through $500 in no time at all. Note these next items:

--It is our understanding that the Agreement will be monitored by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).-----

---The International Monetary Fund and Bank for International Settlements are to abide by the 'spirit' of the agreement-----

Perfect!!!

---The US has already announced its intention not to sell or lend gold and Japan followed suit the day after the Agreement was announced.---------

The US had changed it's position on gold in the early spring of this year. Those that still think the US Fed is selling any form of gold short just do not understand how this market has changed. Waiting for the price to fall as "official sales" or "lending" confirm the recent price action will find you on the the outside of a bull market.

---In addition Australia has said it will not sell any more gold, and South Africa is unlikely to sell part of its reserves given the government's vehement opposition to the UK sales.-------

----bringing the total amount of official gold covered to 85%.--------

We have but to wait and watch as the pressure rises under the price of gold!

------We understand that the quotas are not transferable, i.e. if the Swiss decide not to sell 1300 tonnes in the next five years but instead only 1000 tonnes, then no other institution can sell the remaining 300 tonnes.--------

So, how does one prepare for the coming historic bull market in gold. Follow in the footsteps of the only correct Giant in South Africa. Read the Gold Fields report presented here in partial review":

http://news.24.com/English/Business/Companies/ENG_161017_727173_SEO.asp

---Gold Fields said on Friday it had completed the repurchase of its gold hedge (forward sales) position.---------

---it seems inevitable to us that higher, if not much higher, gold prices are possible.----

---Gold Fields continues to hold approximately 660 000 ounces of rand-gold call options at an average strike price of R2 171 per ounce.---------

---Thompson commented: "At higher gold prices the restrictive impact on our balance sheet and the drag on earnings from a continued hedge position would limit our ability to make acquisitions and develop new deposits". ------------

I would say that these people must be the only truly progressive miners in the world. Not only did they buy physical gold at the BOE auction, they are "LONG" gold on contract! Other miners may have "bid low" to show suport, but only Gold Fields got real gold and now is long. They not only understood where gold is going, they positioned their company as a private person should in protecting their estate. We can now most easily see the other hedged miners are trapped in the Bullion Bank web as they can do nothing. These companies will no doubt go down with the ship. If they can not unwind their position today during a standing price, they will die during the coming run!.

With 85% of the official world gold holdings effectively blocked from lending and most all the private lenders wanting out of this game, how could any major forward seller close out? Price has nothing to do with it as the bullion will not be there for 5 years, if even then! These miners will now sit and watch as that gold chart (above) runs out of numbers on the upside. While everyone makes noise about how the market is still controlled to the downside, Bullion owners and Gold Fields will run with the wind of this historic "OFFICIAL" bull market. If only other miners would put on a Texas Hedge, at least there bookkeeping entries could benefit even if the bullion market cannot supply!

Good Job Gold Fields,,,,,,,,,, FOA

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In other words - BUY PHYSICAL

Got Gold?

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 17, 1999

Answers

Andy, where will this announcement by the cartel be made?

-- John (...@...), October 17, 1999.

FOA (9/19/99; 20:23:17MDT - Msg ID:13947)

Comment!

To ALL:

A few more parts to the puzzle may be falling into place. We might even say that the next act in the play is starting. It's a foregone conclusion that the IMF [International Monetary Fund] has been forced to revalue their gold. Most everyone gives the US congress credit for this action. True, they did make it clear how the voting would go if a "sell gold" proposal came before them. But, the selling of gold was only one part of a larger proposal to further fund the IMF. Given the terrible record of "good money down the hole", not only was the single debt relief provision for poor nations at the center of the funding debate, so too was the question of the existence and need for the IMF in the background.

The current problem facing the IMF is in justifying more member commitments that allow the continuation of their operations. It can be looked at two ways: 1. They either are in a squeeze for funds because the extraordinary failure of their policies now require much more money. OR 2. They have been put in a squeeze, more so because major member contributors will no longer support a policy of maintaining foreign dollar debt at the expense of nations outside the IMF/Dollar block.

Indeed, politically one must wonder; why support a system that is built upon a "strong dollar" policy for the benefit of only one country? This rift was opened wider during the last two years as the very "strong dollar policy" that flowed from the US, is the very catalyst that has helped destroy the assets in nations now absorbing most of the IMF flow.

A major item that has been part of this US support structure for the dollar was the G-10 policy on gold. The falling gold price, as seen in the world reserve currency has contributed immensely to the ongoing settlement of all trade in dollars. Indeed, the very continuation of the world trade system. Leading the dollar support component of trade was the use of crude oil settlement in dollars. That one item required practically every nation on earth to buy dollars (or at the least run a positive dollar trade balance with other dollar holding countries) to pay for oil. (NOTE: this post assumes the reader has retained the knowledge presented in the USAGOLD Hall of Fame posts [http://www.usagold.com/halloffame.html])

If a low gold price (indicating a strong dollar) could induce an overflow production of oil, then oil prices in dollars would fall. A steady, neutral or falling price of oil was always an indication that the settlement of oil in dollars would continue side-by-side with the purchase of BB [bullion bank] leveraged gold securities. In addition, the continued physical function of the established world gold markets was paramount in holding this oil support for the dollar. When the day comes that the paper contract gold markets are seen as "in question", the flow of oil will slow and its price in dollars will rise. From early this year, this process has begun.

The beginnings of this change was born in the success of the EMU [European Monetary Union]. With that Euro creation, the ECB/BIS [European Central Bank, Bank for International Settlements] has slowed, stopped and now reversed it's support to lower the price of gold in dollars. In effect, for them, the world's reserve currency position is now slowly changing towards the Euro.

Every day, new evidence emerges that shows Euro liquidity becoming as deep as the dollar with little threat of "dirty float" interventions in exchange rates. The fact that Euro interest rates have remained below the dollar rates indicate this currency's long term perception of strength.

The ECB can now slowly phase out dollar reserves as the Euro assumes more of the world trade settlement function. A function in and of itself, that will further lower the dollar's world need, use, and therefore, value. Because the US still runs a trade deficit, it still ships a surplus of dollars to most countries. In today's new Euro world, the dollar exchange rate will eventually be forced to fall enough to balance this flow. Further, a falling dollar will release ECB dollar reserves as fair game to buy physical gold from any and all entities. However, this buying will most likely be through the BIS and member CBs, not the over leveraged LBMA [London Bullion Market Association] or world gold paper.

In addition, because the Euroland external debt is very low compared to the US and they posses a positive trade balance, a rising price of gold reserves (in Euros or dollars) will support their currency with extra reserve value. Their policy of marking gold reserves to market (on a quarterly basis) and eventually establishing a "true physical" marketplace offers every enticement to get the dollar (and Euro) price of gold higher. Because this process creates a unique reserve benefit, not used in the old gold standard, they will never officially back the Euro with gold. Rather, allow a new "free market" in physical gold (not paper) to supplement their currency operations. The efficiency of modern trade requires a digital currency. That need alone will always support the use of a currency. If gold can trade beside paper money, neither will drive the other out of circulation (as old money gold coins did to paper gold money) as long as they can each seek their own values. ( a very interesting concept??)

During the last several years, the dollar-established gold exchanges created more paper gold than existing gold could ever cover. All done in an effort to create additional world support for a strong dollar. The middle of last year it became apparent that the successful Euro launch would, in time, remove most of the major physical (sales and lending and lending guarantees) support from this marketplace. The result was an IMF/dollar move to sell the physical gold of others into the paper gold arena. In as much as this supply would help, the continued further building of "fractional gold paper" has completely overwhelmed any ability for large physical stocks to cover it. I believe, the BOE sales have been part of a last ditch effort to salvage their London gold operations. Truly, the last round fired in this final battle.

Today, all roads point to a break-up of the world established gold pricing system, as settled in dollars. The IMF gold hoard is constrained to stay in place from lack of further world support for the debt of the dollar block community. The US has changed it's view of gold and views this IMF holding as the only asset that can still be used to support their floating dollar debt overseas. They did this because when a chain reaction of defaulting on foreign dollar reserve debt begins, the dollar would quickly crash!

In choice, the IMF must either release/sell their gold back to the original countries that committed said gold into the IMF, or revalue and use it as money. I think the USA congress knew they needed that gold to remain in the IMF system. They used the "gold fire sale hurting debtors" story as a political ploy to block the gold returns. Let's face it, IMF members would have been glad to return unusable dollar reserves into the IMF for gold. Especially with the ECB thinking of buying other CB gold through the BIS using Euros! In any event all now know, the IMF gold path has been chosen. This will become the trail of no return for the dollar.

Each new revaluation and money usage of gold will bring further reductions of member dollar support for IMF operations. Perceptions will slowly change, especially when oil is seen priced better in a gold "friendly" currency. In a reverse of policy, higher gold will bring cheaper oil. With each further IMF budget reduction, gold will be revalued again higher to create more reserves. One has but to grasp that this is no longer subject to SDR [Special Drawing Right] (also a dollar/IMF creation) paper calculations. This is the absolute revaluation of physical gold for official world debt settlement. The SDR articles will slowly die in this atmosphere. As will the Arabian currency link to SDRs. Perhaps a link to the Euro or complete EMU will occur?

Today, gold has just become set free as "money". In time, officials will review their need to "lend" gold for a return, where as they may "revalue" gold to create a increasing reserve source. As gold rises, there will be "no contest" in this conflict of thought.

With physical gold being quickly withdrawn from a position of support for the established world paper exchanges, the imbalance will become very visible in "lending rates". As these rates rise, the gold pricing market as we all know it will grind to a halt. I am sure it will be closed for "renovation"; use your best imagination. In 1968, on 15 of March, the US asked for the closure of the London gold markets. On 1 of April it reopened, fixing in dollars for the first time. This time I expect the official dollar gold markets will not reopen for a long time.

It was pointed out to me that our great world gold market is the most liquid it has ever been. The members have many reserves and even insurance companies to back them. I completely agree! They will not fail one investor with the lack of cash settlement for all remaining, unsettled claims. The dollar/IMF block of countries will print whatever money is needed to clear out this arena. Just as the US once before called in gold and settled up in "local gold backed cash" because the foreign dollar gold loans had failed, this time will they call in "real gold paper" and settle in "absolute fiat cash".

Some say gold will be confiscated! I reply as in the "Bear Joke" about two hikers confronting a bear. I don't have to out run the bear, says one to the other, I only have to out run you. My friend, in that day of gold turmoil, I will hold my gold and have but to only outrun you! For people with goods to sell will SEEK MY GOLD FOR ECONOMIC TRADE, not the government collection man.

Buy physical gold to hold. In the time to come, this money in the hand will outperform any investment you have ever known. Few today accept just how high physical gold will rise. Be a part of the "physical gold advocates" and tell a story your grandchildren will grow tired from hearing! (large smile)

Thank You for reading.

FOA

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 17, 1999.

Not sure John - I suspect a press conference in London at 0800 CDT...

will post when I hear news...

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 17, 1999.

Andy,

Once more, thank you sincerely for your time and effort here on our behalf.

God Bless,

Will

-- Will Huett (willhuett@usa.net), October 17, 1999.

You are correct Chuck - the post you are referring to is in the usagold "Hall Of Fame" as being an outstanding post. It puts into context his latest thinking. Hope this helps.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 17, 1999.

For the spot price of gold:
http://mrci.com/qpnight.htm
http://www.kitco.com/gold. graph.html

For the spot price of silver:
http://www.kitco.com/sil ver.graph.html

For the spot price of platinum:
http://www.kitco.com/p latinum.graph.html

For U.S. Markets and stock quotes:
http://finance.yahoo.com/?u

For Major World Indices:
http://finance.yahoo.com/m2?u

Sincerely,
Stan Faryna

Got 14 days of preps? If not, get started now. Click here.

Click here and check out the TB2000 preparation forum.

-- Stan Faryna (faryna@groupmail.com), October 17, 1999.

If only!Alas,on my budget I can only afford lead.

-- zoobie (zoobiezoob@yahoo.com), October 17, 1999.

The days of "gold as the real money" are very, VERY, limited. The breathrough of molecular nano technology will render physical gold absolutely worthless and people will not even be able to give it away. Beware. There will be no warning.

-- Paula (chowbabe@pacbell.net), October 17, 1999.

Gee Andy, what was his comment about hedged miners "going down with the ship"? Sounds like Drooy is in a world of Shit, as are those who've invested in it!

-- WorkinStiff (here@there.com), October 17, 1999.

Hey,Hey Paula....

Interesting Post. Care to expand? I guess anything's possible.

-- Larry (Rampon@cyberramp.net), October 17, 1999.

Andy,

I read the Holtzman article, as well as the rest of the "Hall of Fame" articles. It is not surprising that a web site of a PM dealer would call attention to articles which encourage readers to buy physical gold, just as it is not surprising that a web site of a stock broker would call attention to articles which encourage readers to trade stock market shares.

But, these goldbug articles make the hype of stock brokers look tame. At least stock brokers can be expected to publish "target" prices for the stocks that they hype. None of these goldbug articles even hint that that some expectations of future gold prices may just possibly be unrealisticly high. The moon? Hey, why not?

One set of articles seems to rewrite some history by attributing the drop of oil prices from their highs to various gold based banking arrangements. Did I miss any discussion about the higher oil prices leading to increased drilling, improved recovery methods, etc, or any number of demand reduction measures such as more fuel efficient cars, more insulation in buildings, etc? Or were such discussions not there to be found.

I did not notice any mention of the probability that higher and higher gold prices would lead to higher and higher gold production, as well as some reduction in gold consumption. Such factors would be likely to set some upper limits on gold prices, but if there were any such comments in any of those articles, I could not find them.

And throughout the articles runs the theme that only gold is really money, and all that other stuff that people use as money really isn't money. If these folks can't understand that money is whatever people actually use as money (i.e. a common medium of exchange), it would be prudent to have at least some doubts about their financial advice.

What do you do for reality checks on this stuff? Please, please, please, have some grains of salt handy when you read it. :-)

Jerry

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), October 17, 1999.

Jerry, so what exactly do you think was the cause of the oil price surge in 1974? Let me guess. You bought into the propaganda about the arabs getting politically persnickity.

You don't in any way imagine that the price of oil could have upsurged because of the 1971 dollar disengagement from the gold standard, with the resultant devaluation creating an untenable position for the arabs selling their oil at or near cost around 1974. No, of course, you wouldn't be considering that possibility. That is why you are suggesting a history rewrite attributing the drop of oil prices from their highs to various gold based banking arrangements.

The arabs were and still are distrustful of a dollar not backed by a universally accepted standard of value. You really cannot imagine that a deal was struck to stabilize the value of oil in dollar terms through adding some gold to the deal?

I did not notice any mention of the probability that higher and higher gold prices would lead to higher and higher gold production, as well as some reduction in gold consumption. Such factors would be likely to set some upper limits on gold prices, but if there were any such comments in any of those articles, I could not find them.

Of course, there is going to be an upper limit. You have chosen to believe the upper limit could not possibly be $30,000 per ounce.

And throughout the articles runs the theme that only gold is really money, and all that other stuff that people use as money really isn't money. If these folks can't understand that money is whatever people actually use as money (i.e. a common medium of exchange), it would be prudent to have at least some doubts about their financial advice.

So astute of you, Jerry! Of course it is money, but as previously stated, many many other countries don't buy into the dollar as being something of value when backed by only a promise to pay, and do not appreciate being forced to accept it as payment. Why is that so very hard for you to understand??????

What do you do for reality checks on this stuff? Please, please, please, have some grains of salt handy when you read it. :-)

Jerry pal, you are the one who is in need of a reality check. Unfortunately, yours is going to be very painful, indeed.

-- OR (orwelliator@biosys.net), October 17, 1999.

Its true the Arabs would like to dump the yankee imperialist dollar or at least mitigate its economic influence. But where you lose me is to contend there's been some conspiratorial agreement where the Arabs have been paid off in gold by some agreement forged in the mid-70s. Back then the arabs had nationalized their oil operations and were at war with Israel, the US, and our allies. How was this deal facilitated? Whats the evidence? Was it done through ARAMCO? Without more info, I also think grains of salt are warranted at this point.

-- Downstreamer (downstream@bigfoot.com), October 17, 1999.

Downstreamer,

this from another site... get the books from the library, the last one from www.usagold.com...

"I've read a few books on the subject of the gold for oil deals. There's no question in my mind that this has been fact for a long time. We will see what the future brings regarding US $/euro/gold for oil linkage. The corroboration I've found in reading your postings and those of many of the other astute people here, combined with reading "Oil, God, and Gold", "The Prize", and "In the Footsteps of Giants", leaves no doubt to the validity of the deals. As you noted, the deals have been in effect since 1937 originally on various concession agreements, and even earlier on others. In the later 1920's, when the main interest on the part of the Saudis was to grant exploration privileges for the search of water, the payment was made in part or full with gold. The natural extension of the exploration, of course, was the discovery of oil reserves, and in some cases gold and other precious metals and minerals. Thanks for all your sharing of knowledge and understanding at this site."

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 17, 1999.

OR,

you are da man!

I've wasted many an hour with the likes of Jerry ( he who knows how to ride a tricycle) many times before...

Funny how a lot of these folks are now popping up all over the place and talking down gold and silver in favour of toilet paper money...

Hmmmmmm, funny that :)

Cheers again OR...

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 17, 1999.

OK Andy, I just spent $60 at Amazon.com cause of you and with all the time I'm pissing away on line lately I don't know when I'm gonna read em (post-rollover perhaps?). I'm gonna order Oil, God and Gold tomorrow morning from USAGold. I will say I've read The Prize more than once and its a stretch to say Yergin implicated the Arabs in any multi-decade under the table gold deal.

I've researched US/Saudi relations extensively. I've read at least a dozen books on the Gulf Arabs, ARAMCO and the history of oil biz. There have been several oil price fixing deals between the Saudis and the Bush/Reagan administrations but I don't think Saudi/US Governmental relations were good enough back in the 70s. I'm always interested in any info on ARAMCO which is definately under a curtain of secrecy.

After reading The Rise, Corruption and Coming Fall of the House of Saud, I wrote the author- Said Abrurish, and we began a long term correspondence which culminated in me spending several hours with him in his London flat over tea. He's a very knowledable Arab (& US citizen) author. I peppered him with questions on covert deals and the Saudi mode of doing business. Since then I've also fostered relations with other in-the-know Arabs. My point is - my research hasn't been limited to books or Westerners. None of these books or sources have mentioned more than a cursory role for gold... but I'll anxiously await the UPS guy this week.

I'm enjoying the expansion of my horizons and appreciate your posts and perspectives.

And, Andy - where's the additional info on the big cartel press release expected this morning?

I notice Dec COMEX gold is unchanged on ACCESS as of 11 PM Cent time. Where's the fireworks?

-- Downstreamer (downstream@bigfoot.com), October 17, 1999.

Paula,

Nanotechnology, as currently envisioned, deals with the molecular & elemental levels -- at best, the manipulation of single elemental atoms. What you're describing is the manufacture of elemental gold, which would require sub-atomic manipulation. I don't even know if this is theoretically possible is any controlled sense -- probably hundreds of years off into the future. On the other hand, I would bet we could get the nanites to make some Krugerrands or a nice gold bracelet sometime within the next hundred years, as long as we can feed the process enough elemental gold.

-- Nathan (nospam@all.com), October 18, 1999.

Nathan/Paula,

anyone with that technology would do a de Beers :) or be killed...

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 18, 1999.

DS,

OK Andy, I just spent $60 at Amazon.com cause of you and with all the time I'm pissing away on line lately I don't know when I'm gonna read em (post-rollover perhaps?). I'm gonna order Oil, God and Gold tomorrow morning from USAGold.

####### sorry the one you need is "In The Footsteps Of Giants" - if you buy some Eagles they will give it to you free ;) #######

I will say I've read The Prize more than once and its a stretch to say Yergin implicated the Arabs in any multi-decade under the table gold deal.

####### Plan to read it one day... #######

I've researched US/Saudi relations extensively. I've read at least a dozen books on the Gulf Arabs, ARAMCO and the history of oil biz. There have been several oil price fixing deals between the Saudis and the Bush/Reagan administrations but I don't think Saudi/US Governmental relations were good enough back in the 70s. I'm always interested in any info on ARAMCO which is definately under a curtain of secrecy.

After reading The Rise, Corruption and Coming Fall of the House of Saud, I wrote the author- Said Abrurish, and we began a long term correspondence which culminated in me spending several hours with him in his London flat over tea. He's a very knowledable Arab (& US citizen) author. I peppered him with questions on covert deals and the Saudi mode of doing business. Since then I've also fostered relations with other in-the-know Arabs. My point is - my research hasn't been limited to books or Westerners. None of these books or sources have mentioned more than a cursory role for gold... but I'll anxiously await the UPS guy this week.

####### I spent 3 years in Saudi putting in the Saudi Arabian Airlines IBM/TPF 1.0 comp. reservations/cargo etc. system.

It was "an experience" :)

In retrospect that was when I bacame a goldBug. Bought lots of 24k for my girlfriend at the time, used to smuggle it into the UK every two weeks in my underpants (ahem!) - what a naughty boy I am!

The Gold Souks are amazing - learned who to trade after learning the hard way!

Americans are a small sector of the planet believe it or not - Gold is truly international and in the coming hard times those who possess it will realise why it has been THE wealth protector for 5,000 years. #######

I'm enjoying the expansion of my horizons and appreciate your posts and perspectives.

####### Thank You #######

And, Andy - where's the additional info on the big cartel press release expected this morning?

####### Flierdude posted it - an anti-climax I'm afraid... #######

I notice Dec COMEX gold is unchanged on ACCESS as of 11 PM Cent time. Where's the fireworks?

####### the fireworks are hidden in the thumping chests of those who can't cover and are about to lose it all...

Patience glasshoppa - just get the physical, sit back, and watch the show :) #######

Oct 22nd cutoff, should be some by then :)

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 18, 1999.

OR,

My post stated:

'One set of articles seems to rewrite some history by attributing the drop of oil prices from their highs to various gold based banking arrangements. Did I miss any discussion about the higher oil prices leading to increased drilling, improved recovery methods, etc, or any number of demand reduction measures such as more fuel efficient cars, more insulation in buildings, etc? Or were such discussions not there to be found.'

The comments in your post:

"Jerry, so what exactly do you think was the cause of the oil price surge in 1974? Let me guess. You bought into the propaganda about the arabs getting politically persnickity.

You don't in any way imagine that the price of oil could have upsurged because of the 1971 dollar disengagement from the gold standard, with the resultant devaluation creating an untenable position for the arabs selling their oil at or near cost around 1974. No, of course, you wouldn't be considering that possibility. That is why you are suggesting a history rewrite attributing the drop of oil prices from their highs to various gold based banking arrangements.

The arabs were and still are distrustful of a dollar not backed by a universally accepted standard of value. You really cannot imagine that a deal was struck to stabilize the value of oil in dollar terms through adding some gold to the deal?"

completely ignore the issue, except to pretend to do some mind reading (which, as mind reading usually does, turns out to be unsuccessful), by asserting: "That is why you are suggesting a history rewrite attributing the drop of oil prices from their highs to various gold based banking arrangements. "

My suggestion of a history rewrite in the referenced articles is precisely as I wrote it, not as your post apparently misconstrues it. Attempting to change the subject at issue is not really a suitable way to address the issue.

In response to my paragraph:

'I did not notice any mention of the probability that higher and higher gold prices would lead to higher and higher gold production, as well as some reduction in gold consumption. Such factors would be likely to set some upper limits on gold prices, but if there were any such comments in any of those articles, I could not find them.'

Your post replies:

"Of course, there is going to be an upper limit. You have chosen to believe the upper limit could not possibly be $30,000 per ounce."

Again, a change of the subject at issue, in this case from the absence, in the USAG HoF articles, of any suggested upper limits of the POG, apparently to yet an unsuccessful attempt at mind reading.

Your post includes a mention of a specific suggested possible price per ounce of gold, albeit without a time frame. You might ask the folks at USAGOLD if that is a price that they expect their customers to regard as a price that they, the folks as USAGOLD, take seriously. If their answer is yes, you might then suggest that they post it large on their web site. While you are at it, you might ask them what quantitative analysis they might offer as a basis for such a number, as well as what effect they might expect such a statement might have on their credibility with their potential clients.

In response to my paragraph:

'And throughout the articles runs the theme that only gold is really money, and all that other stuff that people use as money really isn't money. If these folks can't understand that money is whatever people actually use as money (i.e. a common medium of exchange), it would be prudent to have at least some doubts about their financial advice.'

Your post replies:

"So astute of you, Jerry! Of course it is money, but as previously stated, many many other countries don't buy into the dollar as being something of value when backed by only a promise to pay, and do not appreciate being forced to accept it as payment. Why is that so very hard for you to understand??????"

Again, a change of the subject at issue, in this case from an apparent inversion of the obvious in the articles in the USAG HoF, to a wisecrack which intitally recognizes the obvious as obvious, "Of course it is money", but which then degenerates to a faulty conception "something of value when backed by only a promise to pay".

But, as is quite obvious to some folks, the US dollar is not backed by a promise to pay anything. It is simply itself, a unit of money, a common medium of exchange. In addition to being used as money within the USA, it is also readily accepted in exchange for local money in many other parts of the world, and it is so accepted while being totally without any promise to pay anything.

So, I do my reality checks quite frequently. It seems to me to be a prudent practice. Permit me to encourage you to do yours frequently also.

Jerry

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), October 18, 1999.