***From the inbox of the Y2k Weatherman:

>Date: Wed, 13 Oct 1999 15:24:43 -0500 >Subject: Y2K compliant systems are going backwards!

some commentary from Paul Dorr

---Y2k compliant systems and software are starting to reverse their trends. They are going backwards. Why? My guess is they are starting to become more self-consciously honest with themselves. This is what Leon Kappelman said months ago, that major programming projects don't face reality until about the last month before deadline. This is the Nature of the industry. We are losing the Y2K war.

Daily News http://currents.net/newstoday/99/10/12/news1.html Y2K Advances Are Reversing By Steve Gold, Newsbytes. October 12, 1999

Infoliant, the information technology (IT) firm that maintains an online register of Y2K-compliant systems and software, says that the industry has started moving in the wrong direction.

Infoliant's Knowledgebase, which recorded a significant surge in status changes in August - which indicated that the software industry was finally getting its act together on Y2K updates - has now recorded a 66 percent "negative" status change ratio for September.

Steve Negri, a spokesperson for the company, told Newsbytes that a negative ratio means that a vendor has changed the status of a device or software package from either positive (i.e. amended and okay for Y2K IT issues) or, more usually, where no status existed.

"Last month we saw the number of status changes shoot up," he said, adding that this suggested that companies were making some progress on the Y2K issue.

"These latest figures, however, show we're really moving in the wrong direction," he said.

Detailed examination of Infoliant's figures reveals that the September statistics are far from being a statistical blip. During the last month, Infoliant logged 246 status changes for its products listed.

That number compares with 125 just as recently as July.

Infoliant's Year 2000 Network Advisor maintains Y2K compliance information on more than 40,000 hardware and software products for enterprise, network, and desktop systems.

Kevin Weaver, Infoliant's vice president, said that the high percentage of negative changes logged in the last month was unexpected. "With fewer than 100 days until the new millennium, we would expect manufacturers of IT products to be wrapping up their Y2K testing and certification processes," he said.

"Instead, we tracked 86 products that went from the compliant category to 'action required,' 'vendor will not test,' 'pending evaluation,' or 'non-compliant,' he said, adding that another 74 products made similar negative moves.

Weaver said that these findings further stress that Y2K remediation is an ongoing process that requires continued vigilance by Year 2000 project teams involved with the remediation and clean management of third-party products.

Infoliant's Web site is at http://www.infoliant.com .

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Looks to me like the failure to provide the proper time for testing will not reveal itself until the end of this year, the beginning of next year. Isn't this the JAE finally rearing it's head?

-- BB (peace2u@bellatlantic.net), October 15, 1999

Answers

77 days.

Y2K CANNOT BE FIXED!

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.~net), October 15, 1999.

BB wrote:"...Isn't this the JAE finally rearing it's head? "

no

please refer to:

http://www.computerpro.com/~phystad/jae.html

for a short, complete description of the JAE.

-- plonk! (realaddress@hotmail.com), October 15, 1999.

Depressing. However, I have a question. Infoliant says these negative changes are either where the prior status was downgraded, or:

"more usually, where no status existed"

The implication seems to be that the majority of negative changes were from "unknown" to "not ready". While this lends support to the argument that if a status isn't reported, that status is probably not good, it also skews the trend analysis. These are the first status reports available on these products. They are not changes in the reported status of a product, and shouldn't be considered as such.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), October 15, 1999.

Earth to Flint...Earth to Flint...

BUY MORE FOOD!!!!!

-- nothere nothere (notherethere@hotmail.com), October 15, 1999.

nothere:

I intend to. If IT history is any indication, sometime after Christmas many organizations are going to be amazed to suddenly discover that they're a lot further behind than they thought. Looks like we'll see hardships, but I've never doubted that. My projection of just how hard has suffered an uptick lately.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), October 15, 1999.

" My projection of just how hard has suffered an uptick lately."

WWWWHHHHOOOOAAA!!!Did Flint just admit that he just -might- become a GI? Whats next man? Doomerville? LOL!

-- Billy Boy (Rakkasan@Yahoo.com), October 15, 1999.

Billy-boy, it is the epitome of rudeness to chastise a polly for becoming more pessimistic, and vice-versa.

We'll all meet in the middle, soon enough.

-- lisa (lisa@work.now), October 15, 1999.

Flint

You said:

"I intend to. If IT history is any indication, sometime after Christmas many organizations are going to be amazed to suddenly discover that they're a lot further behind than they thought. Looks like we'll see hardships, but I've never doubted that. My projection of just how hard has suffered an uptick lately. "

You just won my "Open Mindedness Merit Badge".

Watch six and keep your...

-- eyes_open (best@wishes.not), October 15, 1999.

Lisa, if only. It's not the middle where we'll be meeting.

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), October 15, 1999.

Lisa...

Not chastising....just shocked....absolutely shock-ed! Good luck to ya Flint!!!

-- Billy Boy (Rakkasan@Yahoo.com), October 15, 1999.

eyes:

As 'a' pointed out on another thread a couple days ago, the news has been really lousy this week. And while I don't regard any news as conclusive, this is NOT a good sign. I'll follow your advice.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), October 15, 1999.

Right, Leska, not the middle, but closer to the middle. Hopefully.

Very soon Y2K will just "be".

-- lisa (lisa@work.now), October 15, 1999.

Welcome aboard Flint........Now i am really worried.

-- kevin (innxxs@yahoo.com), October 15, 1999.

Very soon y2k will just be. -Lisa

Yeah Lisa! Soon there will be no doomers or pollies, just people in the midst of whatever. Reality will have dawned. Some will have to make more adjustments than others. We will all have to play the hand that's dealt.

My fear Flint is based on what you said. In December the bad news will become evident to companies and corps that thought they would be ready. AND at the same time, there will be others who will figure out a workable contingency plan to get them through.

I am not a computer person, but I am a boy scout....I'll be ready. I pray that the doom I foresee is still a long ways off.

-- BB (peace2u@bellatlantic.net), October 15, 1999.

Oh noooo, here's how I see it. Flint becomes a GI = Pigs are now flying.

Redsox win the World Series (against the Mets) and Hell Freezes Over and y2k goes "Infomagic."

(Redsox beat the Braves? Well, y2k is a 7 and Hell only freezes for a few years...!)

-- mar (derigueur2@aol.com), October 15, 1999.

How many of you remember the drop in 1987 ???

The market dropped drastically on a Friday. Everyone went home and thought about it for two days and came back on Monday to drop the thing a total of 22.5%. And they didn't have:

The Fed Chairman saying scary things. Inflation jumping to a 13% annual rate in one month. Y2K

SCARY

-- Dana (A_Non_O_Moose@xxx.com), October 15, 1999.

One more big reason for our local pollies to become more pessimistic.

-- Dana (A_Non_O_Moose@xxx.com), October 15, 1999.

Well Flint....I am happy that you have been prepared. I think that it scares me to see you state the things that you have in this thread.

I mean, what are we gonna do if MORE pollies come over to the 'dark side'???

I would type a big lol, but I don't feel like laughing right now.

-- Brent James Bushardt (brentj@webt.com), October 15, 1999.

Anyone who looks at Flint' last statement and suggests this is some watershed, seminal event for him hasn't been reading his material for very long. He has ALWAYS looked at information and tried to determine validity, impact, and general strength of whatever was posted. His evaluation criteria have been different from the vast majority on the Forum, but he has been remarkably consistent in his approach. Unfortunately, this consistency translates into an inconsistency in the perception of his position.

I am NOT surprised at his attitude, as written here.

Chuck, who has almost as much forum grey hair as almost everyone left, which is a SCARY thought.

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), October 15, 1999.