How comforting. His crudest speculation on the probability of any of the five risks to global banking (that he writes about in his Addendum) turning into a multitrillion dollar Y2K scenario (a global freeze-up of banking) is less than 30%. ie, he speculates that there is a less than 30% chance that Y2K could bring down the international finance system...Is it 29%? 3% One wonders. (See page 28 of his Addendum)

He also says that as of the date the report was written, Sept. 23, the markets haven't factored in these risks to any significant degree. (Also page 28)

He also speculates that world banks that hold gold reserves may be pretty smart in light of the potential for "partial demonetisation of economics"...ie, because some paper currencies become worthless. (See page 30)

His Addendum linked on previous thread: http://greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001ZzI

-- argh (argh@nowhere.com), October 14, 1999