God, I love to hear those words spoken out loud. Read his entire testimony at

www.senate.gov/~y2k/hearings/991013/gogerty_intl.pdf.

It's a damning assessment.

R.

-- Roland (nottelling@nowhere.com), October 14, 1999

Answers

It's an interesting document. I see the string 'gogerty' in its URL, but that string appears nowhere in the text. In fact, no authorship is given, other than a tag on each page: www.intl-monitoring.com

On http://www.intl- monitoring.com/, I see

International Monitoring is a specialist consultancy based in London, assessing Y2K damages and delays in 140 countries via the IM-Y2K Risk Rating Report.

Was this testimony submitted only in written form?

Did no one appear in person before the Committee?

Who is "Gogerty"?

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), October 14, 1999.

wow!!!! I love pages 8, 9, and 10. Said he didn't even want to DISCUSS the banking situation in a public forum with broad media coverage!! So I hope the Koskinen/Clinton chickens come home to roost before Y2k hits.

-- tt (cuddluppy@yahoo.com), October 14, 1999.

Tom,

Some links...

New Senate Y2K Hearings - "What in the World Will Happen?"

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id= 001Zqp

And...

Nick Gogerty
International Monitoring
http://www.senate.gov/~y2k/hearings/991013/gogerty_intl.pdf
Addendum: global finance paper
http://www.senate.gov/~y2k/hearings/991013/ instit_banking.pdf

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), October 14, 1999.

Roland....are you a gunslinger? If so, have you heard from Blane the Train lately? Still miss them fingers the lobstrocities took?

-- Jay Urban (jurban@berenyi.com), October 14, 1999.

rats. I assume no one has seen a posted copy of the IM-Y2K Risk Rating Report for the US since you have to pay to get it???

-- tt (cuddluppy@yahoo.com), October 14, 1999.

Now the question is, what is International Monitoring's "agenda?"

How best to view this source?

-- how (to@consider.thissource), October 14, 1999.

Tom Carey: Cspan showed yesterday's hearing this morning, I saw the last 15 minutes. Gogerty appeared credible.

-- curtis schalek (cschalek@earthlink.net), October 14, 1999.

Jay,

Still looking for the tower...and haven't heard from "Blain the Pain" lately!

R.

-- Roland (nottelling@nowhere.com), October 14, 1999.

Gogerty's bona fides from post on thread below: http://greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001Zyl [snip[ But another witness, Nick Gogerty, an analyst at the London-based firm International Monitoring, said the optimistic Y2K message being put forth by U.S. officials was "potentially reckless" and could prompt some to disregard the Y2K risk.

Gogerty said he expects Y2K problem will lead to $1.1 trillion in damages worldwide, separate from any litigation and insurance costs. The U.S. share of these damages will amount to about $115 billion, he estimated. He believes Y2K will lead to delays in global trade.

However, the most serious risk posed by Y2K will be on financial systems, Gogerty predicted. Echoing the CIA's assessment, he said a "flight to quality" from traditional assets could lead to increased demand for gold and the U.S. dollar. [snip]

-- argh (argh@nowhere.com), October 14, 1999.

Thanks for the links. (Looks like I'll have to buy more paper for the printer.)

I had no problem with the credibility of the Gogerty papers. I just thought it odd that no attribution to the individual testifying appeared in the document itself.

In his addendum on International Banking, Herstatt risk is mentioned. I wondered about the details, and Google turned up a number of hits on "Herstatt". This one (by the World Bank, aka International Bank for Reconstruction and Development) explains the situation very clearly (but not briefly, alas): Foreign Exchange Markets: Structure and Systemic Risks

This snippet from that page seems especially apropos to the Y2K situation:

"Impact on financial markets.

"A counterparty that defaults because of either an insolvency or a liquidity problem could trigger a systemic problem. The most commonly articulated scenario is one in which the failure of one large bank causes a second bank to fail, in turn causing a third bank to fail, and so on--a "domino effect." Another situation might arise in which a small number of institutions independently fail to deliver, causing other institutions to fail or to encounter liquidity problems.

"These scenarios are more likely to occur when institutions are highly interdependent."

Y2K obviously adds a third cause of possible default, failure or malfunction of electronic infrastructure.

This forum is turning out to be something resembling a post-graduate seminar, meeting on a global scale, polyvalent, eclectic, dissident, unruly (and often rude), enormously informative, and a constant challenge.

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), October 14, 1999.

Tom Carey:

"This forum is turning out to be something resembling a post-graduate seminar, meeting on a global scale, polyvalent, eclectic, dissident, unruly (and often rude), enormously informative, and a constant challenge."

Ahah! No wonder I have become addicted! Clearly this is the prescription for my drug of choice :-)

-- (snoozin@no.more), October 14, 1999.

tt,

Anyone can download the .pdf file, but it requires a password to open it. You have to pay to get the password. Over a thousand dollars. (On the site they say that's less than one day with a consultant. LOL!)

-- your (money@for.yourlife?), October 14, 1999.