Anyone here read "The Fourth Turning"?

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For those interested in a serious historical treatment of theory which may shed light on current events, of which Y2k is but one piece,

please check this out and let us know or if you've read feel free to comment. I have not finished but have skipped around thru book and find it's points compelling and timely...

Written in 1997, full title: "The Fourth Turning - An American Prophecy. What the cycles of History Tell Us about America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny" by William Strauss and Neil Howe. I have not found y2k specifically but it fills the role needed as a

it's a bit overwhelming versus some of the light reading we have devoted much energy to around here but seems to be worth the trouble. It tells of the 4 seasons of life, going back into history and building approx 80 yr cycles. social, economic, cultural, technological, ecological, poltical and military stress factors which exist in each in their context are discussed, it contends we are in the period of unraveling prior to The Crisis (aka WINTER). It ties each generation of each 80 year period to a set of values and responses which serve to continue the cycle.

-- toptxs (toptxs1@dallas.net), October 14, 1999

Answers

toptxs,

About a year ago, several people asked the authors specifically about Y2K -- and they responded with a quasi-DGI answer of, "We're not really sure what Y2K is, but we don't think it will be a serious enough problem to initiate a fourth turning." And yet it fits very nicely, in terms of the timing they describe, and the outcomes they predict. I have a feeling that they very much want the next fourth turning to be initiated by some kind of political crisis -- e.g., a war in the Middle East -- and that, somehow, they don't think a technologically-related crisis is "worthy" of causing it.

Ed

-- Ed Yourdon (ed@yourdon.com), October 14, 1999.


oops - 3rd paragraph - ...as a technological stress to get things moving into the next phase. I now add... I can't tell they were aware of y2k at time of writing. Without realizing the impact or uncanny insight perhaps, in a section entitled "How you should prepare"...they talk on page 317 of "reflect(ing) on what happens in when terrible winter blizzard strikes. You hear the weather warning but fail to act on it. The sky darkens. ... One by one your links to machine age break down. Electricity flickers out, cutting off the TV. Batteries fade. ... Dat-to-day vestiges of modern civilization - bank machines, mutual funds, mass retailers, ,,,computers, ...governmetns all recede irrelevance. THe strom strips you bare, reducing your world to a small number of elemental forces..." next paragraph, ... "Picture yourself and your loved ones in the midst of a howling blizzard that last for several years.." By now they have shown it has happened time and again and is an inevitable cycle which reshapesbasic social and economic landscape. How we come thru the Crisis depends on how we prepare and how we respond.

-- toptxs (toptxs1@dallas.net), October 14, 1999.

About a year ago I read a blitz of 'historical trend' books. The Fourth Turning was one of them. Pretty good, as those go, I thought. There is a web site with discussion forum. The book has quite a following.

http://fourthturning.com The Fourth Turning

-- Donna (moment@pacbell.net), October 14, 1999.


I think you're right Ed.

They do however have a discussion forum with a y2k section which dates back to 1997.

http://www.fourthturning.com/cgi-local/netforum/thefuture/a.cgi/3--12

It is not heavily frequented.

-- nothere nothere (notherethere@hotmail.com), October 14, 1999.


I read that book last year, and thought it made a hell of a lot of sense. It's one of those books that I thought would have been more effective if they had cut it in half, but still a good read.

The intro to the "Year 2000" forum on their website reads:

"Today I read of 39 people who committed suicide in California thinking that some UFO from Comet Hale-Bopp was going to come and take them to a higher plane. That brings up the year 2000, fast approaching. Because the digits of our year numeral happen to do a four-way flip, many people have predicted all sorts of calamities that sound like Fourth Turnings really gone bad, such as nuclear armageddons, the Second Coming, monstrous weather, massive wars, and Depressions of 1990, all of which was predicted accurately (or some would believe) by one Nostradamus who lived two Saecula ago. Already the biggest thing in the media is the obsession about an asteroid or comet striking the earth, an event with probably near 1 in a million in a year.

Could this bimillannophobia (meaning fear of the year 2000) create a self-fulfilling prophecy? What are the chances the Fourth Turning will begin on 2000 January 1?"

Fortunately, the few people who participate on that forum seem to think about Y2K a little more intelligently than that intro. Lotsa talk there about Ed and the Navy Papers and Senate report.

I just finished Philip Wylie's "Generation of Vipers," now I'm reading "Guns, Germs and Steel," and next I'll read Algore's "Earth in the Balance." I always have a "second book" going while reading another, and right now my "second book" is "Zen and the Art of Motorcyle Maintenance." (as per someone's suggestion here a few weeks ago.)

-- (pshannon@inch.com), October 14, 1999.



This was one of the most intriguing and influential books I've read in a long time. On and intuitive level it makes perfect sense and speaks directly to my heart. I think everybody should read it. I even bought a copy for my parents.

On the downside, _TFT_'s not scientific at all, and a critical read could punch holes in their thesis with little or no problems.

I suppose I can fall prey to concepts simply because they are aesthetically pleasing--as in something's real because "Wouldn't it be nice to think so."

The message, though, is not so erudite that it will put a yahoo like me to sleep. And while it convinces me, it does not do so because of excessive committment to hard facts. I believe Howe and Strauss Just Because.

-- coprolith (coprolith@rocketship.com), October 14, 1999.


Yes. It was one of Ed's "Cool books" and I thought I'd give it a try. Plodding in places, but overall worth the effort. As a believer in the cyclical nature of the world, it made a great deal of sense, and it would surprise me if it did not hit the mark.

Y2K preps are good for more than just Y2K.

-- Uncle Deedah (unkeed@yahoo.com), October 14, 1999.


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