RELAX, october is always a bear month.

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The market is not run by the indiviual citizens, the big boys have thier math and thier long time sense and also the change in the gold leasing game is causeing a lot of short sellers to sell stocks to meet thier loss obligations.

It is silly and not right to think all the major players of the market are just going to cut and run. WHY? cause the stocks are volatile? Travel the web and listen to the financial guys talk to each other. They are in a different world than us as far as the markets are concerned. The amount of credit waiting in the wings if needed is so vast, this market aint crashing for your viewing pleasure.

-- billburke (bill52@rocketmail.com), October 14, 1999

Answers

This happens so often in otherwise well written posts I gotta ask. Are there places in the english speaking world where "thier" correctly substitutes for "their"?

-- NoHarmNoFoul (notpicking@honest.question), October 14, 1999.

bill,

True, primarily in odd numbered years, for some odd reason. More importantly, the technical oscillators and chart patterns also are conveniently bearish right now, both short and long term. See my post a little lower for all the details on the technical aspects. The only bullishness coming is going to be on the intermediate "bounce" trend that will be fairly short-lived. You gotta bounce so you can keep going, no matter which direction you want to steer into. In the absence of major fundamental news as its happening the markets will always trade on technicals. Right now those technicals will take this market down for the next few days...maybe down 1,000 or maybe only another 200-300 points (DJIA). Then the bounce then we'll see the resumption of an overall 30% correction from the overall market tops. That would be what about 3,000 to 4,000 points down? It might even go back 50% down or even 66% down... all of these are based on Fibonacci theories of mathematical rythms. HAVE FUN trading from:

An old retired commodities trader

-- Dick Moody (dickmoody@yahoo.com), October 14, 1999.


Ah,,,another hapless victim of Bubblevision speaks. Sir, please don't assume for a moment that the young men and women of Wall Street have any clue what is about to happen to them. If you think for a moment that they can overcome the denial brought about by a ten year bull run, when most have never seen a "real" bear market, think again. I used to work with a guy that had been in the bus. for 50 plus years (Herb god rest your soul) and he was a fountain of wisdom. He never dazzled me with dot.com ideas or the latest IPO, rather he told me to take a long term view, assess my own risk and then most of all save, save save. Great advice for anyone. In any event, he used to tell me that most of the people on the street didn't have any idea just how bad things can get. When I watch these people spouting their theories on why this economy is so strong, I can't help but think of Herb. They really don't know what they're doing. They've simply inherited a very good job, dependent upon market performance for compensation, in a bull market. Nuff said. They're drunk on success and they don't want the party to end, ever. Unfortunately for them and most unfortunately for the poor souls invested with them, they are unwilling to read the rather bold handwriting on the wall.

Watch CNBC in the morning and ask yourself how these kids are doing reporting really bad news. It's hard for them. They've been trained to say nothing but good things....rah...rah....rah....

I must say though, if I'm gonna listen to blathering I wan't Maria Bartiromo to whisper stupid nothings about the economy into my ears. I still won't believe it, but hey it just sounds better comming from a hottie like her. And how bout that new challenger, Martha McCallam? Go CNBC, go!

-- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), October 14, 1999.


Dick,

As usual, your experience brings a voice of reason to the discussion. I agree the technicals are dreadful, but this time they are coming to a market that is more overvalued, by trditional measurements, than any other market in history. The technicals suggest to me that we may be lookong at a drop more like 73-74 than a typical 20-30% bear market. Throw in Y2K and who knows?

For Bill, I would suggest that the "big boys," whoever thay might be, do not control the stock market. It is simply too large to be cornered by any group of traders or investors. Conspiracy theories rarely hold up, and they are especially transparent in the stock market.

-- mike (maples@voy.net), October 14, 1999.


Dick, So technicals alone are indicating a 3000-4000 correction??? And Y2K is not a "Fundamental" factor? The two playing out together harmonize synergistically to create a heretofore unprecidented catastrophy. Seems were playing under a "new" set of rules.... I don't trust those damn Bankers and Politicians. I don't think those old rules necessarily work any more. Just finished reading "Creature from Jekyll Island" and I'm P.O.'d... By the way, doubled my money today by going against all those six and seven figure income analysts who all said earlier this week "Big Bull"...to many conflicts of interest ...I don't trust those bast**ds either. Follow the money!!

-- Larry (Rampon@cyberramp.net), October 14, 1999.


mike: BULL - (pun intended). Markets today ebb and flow to the whims of machine trading. Any sinister force can move markets up and down.

Denial of conspiracy ("won't hold up") is denial of history for the past 2,000 + years.

-- dw (y2k@outhere.com), October 14, 1999.


NoHarmNoFoul,

No. Some words fake out more people than other words, especially people whose native language is other than that being used in the case in question. In the case of thier, it may simply be following the "i before e" rule without remembering the exceptions.

Dick,

I just wanted to say thanks for your several recent contributions.

Jerry

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), October 14, 1999.


( NoHarmNoFoul-

Interesting question. My guess is that a number of people simply follow that silly (and WRONG) "rule" we were all taught in elementary school... "i" before "e", except after "c". You HAVE heard of that rule haven't you? (I'd practically fient if I learned it wasn't taught everywhere in the US school system.) Wierd how that rule carries so much wieght with some people huh. I blame thier 2nd grade teachers for these mistakes. )

-- CD (not@here.com), October 14, 1999.


(Sorry Jerry. Looks like we posted at the same time.)

-- CD (not@here.com), October 14, 1999.

DW,

Machine (program?) trading does not impact the markets except in the very short term. The progams operate independently of each other, which means, by definition, there can't be a conspiracy. Give me one tangible example where a "conspiracy" contolled the primary trend of the stock market. Just one will do.

-- mike (maples@voy.net), October 14, 1999.



The way I learned the rule was:

'i' before 'e' except after 'c' and when sounding like "aye" as in "neighbor" and "weigh". "Their" would (somewhat) follow this rule.

-- Lois Knorr (knorr@attcanada.net), October 14, 1999.


Gordon,

You are "correctamundo" regarding the experience levels. You've not really learned the markets til you've gone through a 50-66% bear market retracement in ANY market and then slowly crawled back up the wall. The only slides these kids on the street have seen are in the parks.

Mike,

Thanks. I'm well aware of the overvaluations, but you should read the theoretical mathematics research of Fibonacci theory by an Italian monk of the 13th century. Market technicians years ago began to notice that some of his notions about the way numbers seem to move in certain patterns were matching their experiences with the market moves. Markets seem to gravitate to 3 types of retracements... 33% -- 50% and 66% or 1/3 1/2 2/3. Now, I'm not a math theorist so don't ask me why. I just know from experience that "generally" this is the case most of the time with ANY market. Also seems to show up as well in Earthquake patterns and other scientific waveforms, or so I'm told. This is why I gave the numbers as I did... just playing the percentages. OH, also my comments only pertained up to rollover really, though I did say something about 6 months out... that is simply the technical analysis. I suspect that the technicals will take a back seat for awhile but not until rollover hits first. Then who knows. IF the grid goes down for more than a week, the markets will be "toast" most likely. Course, I guess, so would the banks? IF so, then it all becomes a moot issue. But as I've said elsewhere, Y2K ... I had originally thought it would start having an influence on the markets because I figured the media would start making people nervous by November but it now looks like that won't happen. Y2K is being given the same media handling that the media reserves for UFOs, Loch Ness Monsters and the Tooth Fairy. Sad to say, but that's the way it seems to be shaping, IMO.

Larry,

3,000 to 4,000??? Yes, on strictly the technical factors whenever this market decides to correct. It looks like it's being setup to do so now, and not necessarily by manipulation...just natural market forces. (see my above about Fibonnaci theory) Y2K is a fundamental factor but for now, the market is IGNORING it and will continue to ignore it (so it seems) until Y2K either goes away, or pulls the power plug on trading. Until then, the fundamentals will rule only when there is strong economic or geopolitical news that overwhelms the normal technical drivers that normally move the markets in the absence of news that has not already been discounted into a market.

Jerry,

Thanks for the compliment and you're welcome. Glad to know that some folks find it of some benefit and not some ramblings of an old geezer.

-- Dick Moody (dickmoody@yahoo.com), October 14, 1999.


I too am a former commodities trader and my name is on the lists for brokers to call. Yesterday a broker called to recruit me and I brought up Y2K to him. Of course, he just scoffed at the sugestion that it could hurt the bull market and reiterated that this was a tremendous buying opportunity. I told him my concern was the global effects from the other countries not prepared on our economy. Momentary silence occurred as a light bulb seemed to go off in his head. He backed off and said he'd call me back in a month.

-- DGBennett (bennett1@peachnet.net), October 14, 1999.

Many thought that the big boys would rescue the market in 1929. They tried but failed. They will fail again in 1999/2000.

-- Danny (dcox@bc.seflin.org), October 14, 1999.

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