OT: Solar Flare Activities

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Anyone else here following solar flare activities? By the looks of it, some pretty good flares have occurred recently, and the likelihood of them reaching earth by October 16, is good.

-- Blazen Saddles (Blazen Saddles@Blazennn.xomc), October 13, 1999

Answers

Here's a good website that provides live data feeds of the satellites monitoring the sun...along with some really awesome SOHO satellite pics of the sun...including STRANGE anomalies that pop up from time to time in the pictures. ORBIT website:

http://members.aol.com/phikent/orbit/solwatch.html

-- Dick Moody (dickmoody@yahoo.com), October 14, 1999.


Got a link to where to monitor the flares' progress?

-- profit_of_doom (doom@helltopay.ca), October 14, 1999.

Here's a site.

http://www.dxlc.com/solar/

If you understand everything it says, please explain it to the solar lingo impaired. (Also link impaired.)

-- Bill (bill@tinfoil.com), October 14, 1999.


For edu and rsrch only....

Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to minor storm on October 14 with a chance of major storm intervals late in the day. Unsettled to major storm is likely on October 15-16 as the most well defined and well placed part of a large coronal hole will have been in a geoeffective position 3 days earlier. A CME impact is possible on October 16, however, it could catch up with the tail end of the coronal stream currently affecting the geomagnetic field. Low frequency (below 2 MHz) radio wave propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is generally poor to very poor.

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Gotta say, I've seen these things before and I don't think the science of prediction is quite there yet. Back a few months, these guys were practically pissing their pants about an X class flare and a CME that was going to roll up our ass for certain. Said it was 98 percent prbablity or some shit....never happened. Nothing.

Don't get me wrong, I think the solar flare activity is serious and troublesome for new years. i just don't think they're very good at predictions just yet.

-- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), October 14, 1999.


I don't follow them though I am very aware of Cycle 23. It about equals being told that somewhere, out there, maybe, a big hurricane season will arrive. I'm so prepared for an emergency that I'm not concerned about being taken by surprise, and as someone else noted the predictions just don't really seem to be on the cutting edge yet, so it doesn't seem worthwhile to monitor that space weather.

-- Paula (chowbabe@pacbell.net), October 14, 1999.


Just had a great big X-Class flare five hours ago!

Currently it is 6am PDT.

http://solar.sec.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_1m.cgi

-- Helium (Heliumavid@yahoo.com), October 14, 1999.


Comment added at 09:07 UTC on October 14: A major impulsive X1.8 flare peaked at 09:00 UTC. Images are not yet available, however, 20 minutes before the eruption region 8731 was the brightest. It was already the hottest candidate for an M flare, still an X flare as the first flare of importance from this region was a surprise. Further updates will be added later today when images become available.

Comment added at 11:45 UTC: The major flare in region 8731 was accompanied by a coronal mass ejection off the east limb and the north pole. There is a possibility that the CME could be geoeffective. A better evaluation of the CME will have to await the availability of LASCO movies covering 2-3 hours after the flare. The background x-ray flux has increased to the class

-- Helium (Heliumavid@yahoo.com), October 14, 1999.


And the leonid meteor shower returns on Nov 13-14-15.

Not too big an impact last year (from collisions to satellites), but we shall see.

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Marietta, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), October 14, 1999.


What it really means, is keep checking the solar flare reports for the next week or so. It looks like some heavy activity is possible (e.g., major storm). It looks like there might be some communications disruption, but not a lot...unless one of the major storms erupts.

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), October 14, 1999.

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