"Never believe in anything until it has been officially denied" Otto von Bismarck, 1815-1898 "Believe nothing until it has been officially denied" (1956) Claud Cockburn "Nobody believes a rumor here until it's officially denied" Edward Cheyfitz, Washington D.C. "Believe nothing merely because you have been told it" Buddha "No Congress of the United States ever assembled, on surveying the state of the Union, has met with a more pleasing prospect than that which appears at the present time..." President Coolidge, Dec. 4, 1928 "The nation is marching along a permanently high plateau of prosperity" Irving Fisher, 1929 "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanent high plateau... I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher than it is today within a few months" Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics, Yale University, Oct 15, 1929 "The industrial condition of the United States is perfectly sound... nothing can arrest the upward movement" Charles E. Mitchell, president of the National City Bank, October 14, 1929 "The markets generally are now in a healthy condition... values have a sound basis in the general prosperity of our country" Charles E. Mitchell, president of the National City Bank, October 15, 1929 "I doubt if anything that will not affect business can affect the market, which is like a weather-vane pointing into a gale of prosperity" Charles E. Mitchell, president of the National City Bank, October 16, 1929 "...fundamentals remained unimpaired" Charles E. Mitchell, president of the National City Bank, October 24, 1929 "There is nothing in the business situation to justify any nervousness" Eugene M. Stevens, President of Continental Illinois Bank, October 30, 1929 "the fundamental business of the country -- that is, the production and distribution of goods and services -- is on a sound and prosperous basis." President Herbert Hoover, October 30, 1929 "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." George Santayana, 1863-1952 "The farther backward you look, the farther forward you are likely to see." Sir Winston Churchill, 1874-1965 "A page of history is worth a volume of logic." Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr "Study the past if you would divine the future." Confucius "We have far more people selling derivatives, index funds and mutual funds [unit trusts] than there is intelligence for the task *" "When you hear it being said that we've entered a new era of permanent prosperity with prices of financial instruments reflecting that happy fact, you should take cover *" "In the late Twenties it was impossible to read any discussion of the economy without encountering the new paradigm, namely radio and electronic communications. One should read about that before putting too much emphasis on the computer world as the new paradigm *" * Professor J K Galbraith, 1999 "The fate of the world economy is now totally dependent on the growth of the U.S. economy, which is dependent on the stock market, whose growth is dependent on about 50 stocks, half of which have never reported any earnings..." Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, Friday, May 21, 1999

-- Jim (waiting@aol.com), October 13, 1999

Answers

Hey, you forgot one. "The sky is falling, the sky is falling", Chicken Little

-- jbsmith (joebobsmith@yahoo.com), October 13, 1999.

ah yes, you are true believer in greater fool theory. Why not just trade stock symbols instead of company fundamentals. Do you really think "the boyz" are going to give you any crumbs?

-- Jim (waiting@aol.com), October 13, 1999.

Supposing that the above quotes are true and correct, I am getting an education about the thoughts of those days. I am wondering if anyone was talking of a bubble or overvaluation preceding the crash. The quotes are quite a contrast from today.

-- the Virginian (1@1.com), October 13, 1999.

Jim,

Great idea for a post. May I add a few?

Most people do not follow their own trading plans because they let the crowds influence their feelings, thoughts and actions (Alexander Elder)

Failure to prepare is preparing to fail (John Wooden)

If everyone is thinking alike then somebody isn't thinking (George Patton)

There is quite a difference between talking and trading (Reminiscences of a Stock Operator)

There is nothing new in Wall Street. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again (supra)

I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon (Baron Rothschild)

There are old traders around and bold traders around but there are no old, bold traders around (Bob Dinda)

He who knows nothing is confident of everything (Anon)

Chance favors the informed mind (Louis Pasteur)

Wall Street's graveyards are filled with men who were right too soon (william Hamilton)

He who knows but does not act, still does not know (Chinese proverb)

In 1973-74, those people who were really smart and shrewd lost a lot of money. The people who weren't really smart and shrewd got wiped out (Robert Rubin)

Most people don't make money in trading because they would rather be right than make money (Courtney Smith)

When this thing finally unwinds, it'll get as irrational on the downside as it ever was on the upside (Marty Zweig)

-- mike (maples@voy.net), October 13, 1999.

Excellent quotes. And here is another from Elder: "Never risk more than 2% (of your principal) on a trade. If you have 5 losses in a row, quit trading for a month."

-- Jim (waiting@aol.com), October 13, 1999.

Virginian:

Yes, there were indeed those in 1929 who tried to warn of overvaluation. They were shouted down as "doomers" [G] who did not understand the "new realities".

In a couple of cases, it was seriously suggested that they were guilty of treason......

A good, short read on this subject is Galbraith's "The Great Crash of 1929".

-- mushroom (mushroom_bs_too_much@yahoo.com), October 13, 1999.

some more...

`If you arent scared, you arent paying attention. -J.L Hudson

Lf Fascism came to America, it would be on a program of Americanism. -Huey Long

`They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety. -Benjamin Franklin

`The first thing we do, lets kill all the lawyers. -William Shakespeare, HenryVI, Part 2.

`You can observe alot just by watching. -Yogi Berra

'Any excuse will serve a tyrant. -Aesop, 550BC

'Freedom means you can do and say what you want. It also means people you dont like can say and do things that you dislike. Thats part of the deal. Most people are unclear on this very simple concept. -J.L.Hudson

-- matt (whome@somewhere.nz), October 14, 1999.

Virginian, at least a few folks were heard to say "When your shoeshine boy and cabbie have stock tips for you it's time to get out of the market!"

Chuck

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), October 14, 1999.

On hard times: There were times my pants were so thin I could sit on a dime and tell if it was heads or tails. -Spencer Tracy (1900-1967)

-- Donna (moment@pacbell.net), October 14, 1999.

Chaos, as defined by physicists: chaos refers to the issue of whether or not it is possible to make accurate long-term predictions about the behavior of the system.

-- Donna (moment@pacbell.net), October 14, 1999.